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HershOstropoler
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MtG:
"In 18 months, I'd rate it "probable" but certainly not "pretty certain.""
Most of that list is pretty certain IMO. But we'll see anyway...
I can't for example see how a bunch of neocon whiners with their infantile vindictiveness against France and Germany could manage to deal with a free election in Iraq that results in a government that says "sorry, no bases, sorry, no pork, sorry, we won't kiss Sharon's ass".
"Who's "we?" Enough of the world is dependent enough, (and Burkina Faso would be dependent on capital import if it could attract any)"
Well, so dependent that a bunch of african backwaters couldn't be blackmailed to vote for a SC resolution authorizing the Bushie adventure.
The US has little to offer there - a foreign aid budget that goes mostly to Israel and Egypt, and tied to buying stuff from US corps. A trade policy that is for sale to domestic special interest. A policy in the IMF and Worldbank that is designed to bailout domestic speculators.
"and the US gets massive capital import because those investments are attractive"
Common myth, but completely unsubstantiated and quite implausible.
"I think your (Euro) leaders will need genetic engineering to get some balls. The whole (at least the way its spun in the US) "trying to repair relationships with the US" bit is nauseating."
Agree on the 2nd point - it makes me want to throw up everytime I hear it. On the 1st point, not quite. What they need is some good ass spanking by ballot until they no longer know whether they are a pimp or a whore. That will come if it drags out.
"Reality doesn't count. It's what everyone perceives to be real that counts."
Reality has an odd tendency to be realised.
"The real game isn't to make war in Iran. It's to make noise about making war in Iran, so that people will be distracted from looking at other things to closely."
I really think that a good deal of Washington is totally gaga, so who knows. If it is so, those things have a tendency to take a life on of their own. What happens to the threats if Iran says "put up or shut up"?
"Of course."
I expected agreement on this one. 
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Master Zen
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of naughty
Jan 2003
time: 23:28
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quote:
[SIZE=1] Originally posted by HershOstropoler
"Reality doesn't count. It's what everyone perceives to be real that counts."
Reality has an odd tendency to be realised.
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As an economist, I know that is not the case. Basic and obvious example is expectation. When investiors "expect" something to happen, they do things that actually indirectly make that happen. For example, and actually this is a real example, Argentina goes bust, investors foolishly assume that every latinamerican country has the same problems of Argentina and expect them to go bust, notably Brazil, which is Argentina's biggest trade partner. So, the take their investments out of Brazil for fear that it will collapse, and guess what? Brazil does collapse! But because of so much capital going out of the country.
I'm not sure how to correctly call it in English, but in spanish we call this "expectativas auto-cumplidas" which roughly means self-accomplished expectations.
So, reality may sometimes be realised because what people perceived to be real, which was wrong made it happen.
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HershOstropoler
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quote:
Originally posted by Master Zen
I'm not sure how to correctly call it in English, but in spanish we call this "expectativas auto-cumplidas" which roughly means self-accomplished expectations.
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Self-fulfilling prophecies?
Worked miracles to keep the nasdaq afloat at 5000.
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:28
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quote:
Originally posted by HershOstropoler
MtG:
"In 18 months, I'd rate it "probable" but certainly not "pretty certain.""
Most of that list is pretty certain IMO. But we'll see anyway...
I can't for example see how a bunch of neocon whiners with their infantile vindictiveness against France and Germany could manage to deal with a free election in Iraq that results in a government that says "sorry, no bases, sorry, no pork, sorry, we won't kiss Sharon's ass".
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You mean you think there will be a free election in Iraq?  I thought much more highly of you. Every candidate in the show will be one of our boys, or in there just as a patsy. We have too much of a stake in this to let the Iraqi people possibly **** it up. 
quote:
"Who's "we?" Enough of the world is dependent enough, (and Burkina Faso would be dependent on capital import if it could attract any)"
Well, so dependent that a bunch of african backwaters couldn't be blackmailed to vote for a SC resolution authorizing the Bushie adventure.
The US has little to offer there - a foreign aid budget that goes mostly to Israel and Egypt, and tied to buying stuff from US corps. A trade policy that is for sale to domestic special interest. A policy in the IMF and Worldbank that is designed to bailout domestic speculators.
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You're really slipping.  The neocons didn't want the stinking resolution - they got exactly what they wanted. The UN was painted into a corner of killing it's credibility by getting on it's knees to US policy demands, or by not going along with the US, the US ignoring the UN and doing what it wanted anyway with the rest of the world looking on.
All the US did was go through the motions of wanting a resolution enough to posture that "we tried to work with the UN, but it's inept and impotent, so we had to do it on our own" It's the John Wayne School of Foreign Relations.
If the US really needed their approval, the bribe amounts would have gone up until they rolled over. We needed to go through the motions, to create a precedent for ignoring the UN at will. The last resolution was essentially tossing the UN a bone: "Endorse what we intend to do anyway, and we'll let you go back to pretending you have any relevance, and we'll all go away happy."
quote:
"and the US gets massive capital import because those investments are attractive"
Common myth, but completely unsubstantiated and quite implausible.
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So they do it out of charity? Or as a form of "constructive engagement." (I'm dating myself a bit, but I'm pretty sure you'll pick up on that one)
quote:
"Reality doesn't count. It's what everyone perceives to be real that counts."
Reality has an odd tendency to be realised.
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As Master Zen pointed out - it is realised by being driven by perception. The underlying accuracy of the perception isn't important.
quote:
"The real game isn't to make war in Iran. It's to make noise about making war in Iran, so that people will be distracted from looking at other things to closely."
I really think that a good deal of Washington is totally gaga, so who knows. If it is so, those things have a tendency to take a life on of their own. What happens to the threats if Iran says "put up or shut up"?
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If it really comes down to it, they get reamed hard. It will just cost the US quite a bit more than it's worth. We do have the capacity to stick it to them, but that really stretches things to the limit and compromises occupation of Iraq.
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31-05-2003 02:09
(I really doubt thats her true reason though. 
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