04-06-2003 16:48									#31
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Turn fowarded.

	04-06-2003 17:02									#32
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Another note on going for the catapults - you'd be surprised how much difference throwing a pike into the attack can make. Again assuming a 50% cat success rate, the chance of capturing the cats goes from 27.6% to 45.9% with the addition of a pike, and the 'success' chance goes up to 76% - from 2/3 to 3/4. A lot of the time I guess the pike gets to attack a 1 or 2 hp defender, and has good odds. It might be worth using a pike if there is just one 1 hp defender left, if nothing else can get there in time, although whether it is worth the loss in defensive power of Inchon is an open question.

	04-06-2003 17:17									#33
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Did Vox have a harbor before? They have now (Wittlitch)

	04-06-2003 17:21									#34
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I guess we need to start worrying about getting a blockade going (as long as we don't mind declaring war on whoever tries to trade with them - and we can't stop them from being connected long enough to do some upgrades).

	04-06-2003 17:30									#35
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I've been doing some Inchon simulations, and the three MIs don't add much to the defense of the town. Building town walls makes about a 6 times larger difference.

I assumed Vox could come at us with 10 immortals (I guesses at 5 veteran and 5 regular - don't know how plausible that is. With the 5 they are losing in the east, and assuming they are going to leave some to help defend D'ville, that seemed like a reasonable guess. With 6 pikes defending, we lose on average 2.8 units (vs 7.1 of theirs) with no walls, and 2.2 (7.7) with walls - that means the walls basically swing one more battle in our favour on average (chance of losing the town on the first turn is 7.2% w/o walls, 3.3% with walls).

They need to get in 15 immortals before they have around a 50% chance of success (if they take the town that turn, or have a good chance to take it the next turn - e.g. we have 1 survivor and they have 5). Each pike is worth 2.5 immortals, more or less, in Inchon, once we have town walls.

	04-06-2003 18:36									#36
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I'm not so eager to build walls in Inchon anymore, now that Vox has 3 cats outside of it.
When cats bombard a city, they always take a shot at the walls first (same for naval bombardments vs. coastal fortresses). Walls have a bombardment defense value of 4, or 6 on hills, so chances are that with 3 cats, they will knock down our walls and then attack with their immortals. So effectively, all that those walls will be good for is for blocking 2-3 cat bombardment attempts, which translate to a loss of about 1HP for one of our pikes.
I think we can leave with that. The walls aren't worth it anymore.

Inchoff, on the other hand, could definitely use walls, though a 0-turn rush doesn't seem necessary.

Btw, we have the embassy benefits with Vox, so if/when they start getting iron from one of the Bobians, we'll know who they're getting it from.

	04-06-2003 18:48									#37
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3 vet med infs versus 1 vet pike, 1 vet spear & 1 regular immortal stacked with 3 cats. That is the question, right?

If we do not hit that stack, next turn there are two more pikemen (1 vet, 1 regular) and several immortals that will join it.

I say hit 'em.

-Arrian

	04-06-2003 18:50									#38
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Oh, by the way: Wittlich just became our next target.

-Arrian

	04-06-2003 19:07									#39
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quote: Btw, we have the embassy benefits with Vox, so if/when they start getting iron from one of the Bobians, we'll know who they're getting it from.

Not during war.

	04-06-2003 19:09									#40
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Even during war - we can see trades in the F4 screen during war times, which should provide us with enough info (unless they spontaneously get trades with a few civs to try and mask which one is the iron deal).

	04-06-2003 19:34									#41
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While we're debating the blockade and the counter-attack against the cats, Nathan, could you please settle Inchoff? I'm curious to know what's 2 tiles away from that site.

	04-06-2003 20:15									#42
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quote: Even during war - we can see trades in the F4 screen during war times, which should provide us with enough info (unless they spontaneously get trades with a few civs to try and mask which one is the iron deal).

The only trades one is able to see is if Vox is trading with ND because we have an embassy with them too.

	04-06-2003 20:20									#43
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I thought that since we have an embassy with Vox, we can see all their trades regardless of the war situation. Fairly confident of that in SP. Anyone want to check?

	04-06-2003 20:21									#44
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I really, really, really hope we can manage to grab those cats.

I'd even be willing to throw a pike into the fray if we knock them down to 1 beat up unit (not the pike, but either the spear or immortal) covering the cats.

-Arrian

	04-06-2003 20:29									#45
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I'd be willing even if they had 2 hp. Compare losing a pike to depriving Vox of 3 catapults, and winning 3 catapults for ourselves.

	04-06-2003 20:35									#46
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quote: I'd be willing even if they had 2 hp. Compare losing a pike to depriving Vox of 3 catapults, and winning 3 catapults for ourselves.

Let's not go overboard either, it would be nice to snatch them, but looking at it from a shield POV, a cat is only worth 20.
Three of them are not going to be teribly important in hurting us at a city on hills with barracks guarded by fortified pikes.

	04-06-2003 20:42									#47
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I used shift-left to show all the available treaties, we can see the status of ND to others and ours, but nothing about Vox,during war your embassy get's closed down.
(same applies for trade)

	04-06-2003 20:47									#48
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I missed quite of discussions over the last days, but did we consider dropping off the 2 MI (with a pike?) behind Eliopolis?
The best unit they have got is a warrior and they can't reinforce it.(except pulling back their spear)
The best they can do is upgrade (if they can get iron) and even then we would get a chance to attack first.

	04-06-2003 20:49									#49
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EDIT: Re attacking with pikes to get the catapults


With 2 hp, it's pretty close to a 50:50 fight, which looks tempting on paper, but really does weaken Inchon quote considerably (against the previously mentioned 10 immortals we go from 7% chance of losing the town to 27% chance). So we have to balance the 50% chance of gaining the catapults vs the 50% chance of weakening Inchon to ths extent.

If we only attack against 1 hp units, we are 78% likely to win, which looks like a better bet to me. (Against the spearman, which is fortified, the odds are 41% for 2 hp and 71% for 1 hp). I don't think it is worth the risk against 2 hp units. We can afford the 50%-ish odds with the MI because they don't contribute to Inchon's defense to any meaningful degree.

	04-06-2003 20:56									#50
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Heh, do the "attitudes" shown on the faces on the F4 screen just get put there by the game?

Anyway, let's hope our med infs do well. I suspect, however, that their pikeman is going to eat up 2 attacks and so the discussion over whether or not to use a pikeman is probably moot.

-Arrian

	04-06-2003 21:39									#51
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Don't forget that if we take out the Cats- we might actually be able to rush walls and enjoy the benefits for a turn or two, before Vox could bring more Cats to bear, So this is a big yeah for attacking. Besides that, we must remember that Vox's Pikes are not grunts like our Pikes that are hurrled in masses, Vox probably has 6-7 of them, and won't get anymore any time soon, so every one we take now means less protection for those Immortals that threaten us most seriously.

I'm in favor of throwing a Pike if he stands against a 1-hp unit, maybe even 2-hp.

As for the next galley- I think we should definitely boost our defense-offense capabilities on Inchon- a Pike+Med should be a nice mix.

We also have to think about what we're doing against the Voxian troops in the spinebreakers. Half of them are turning back towards Inchon/Inchoff, and will be in striking range in 2 turns they pose a serious threat. This is an opportunity to plow through D'ville and take out the bulk of the Voxian army on neutral ground.

	04-06-2003 21:48									#52
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If we're going to move towards D'Ville, we have to do this under the cover of cats. I'm in favor of moving the cats in A9 to A98 and roading.

	04-06-2003 22:08									#53
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Message received from Vox. Should not effect the turn.

	04-06-2003 22:43									#54
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I just founded our Inchoff city. For the moment, I'm calling it "Winds of Change." The only additional Voxian unit in view is a pike 4-1 from the city.

	04-06-2003 22:46									#55
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I want to use every galley we have for our first wave of reinforcements. Vox shouldn't have time to build a new galley and cause trouble with it while we're doing that.

	04-06-2003 22:56									#56
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Does anyone still want to make peace with Vox at this stage if they're willing to accept terms such as were previously discussed (abandon Elipolis, give us Dissidentville, and so forth)?

	04-06-2003 23:49									#57
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Is there any indication that such terms would be accepted by Vox?

Even if they were... I'm don't know. I admit to being a bit wishy-washy on this - on the one hand, it would be good to be able to use the remainder of our GA for peaceful building, but on the other, Vox is such a PitA that it might be best to wipe them out, even though it will cost us.

-Arrian

	04-06-2003 23:56									#58
	Remove this text

Ok, I just saw Beta's message to NYE in the Diplo thread.

Um, wow. That's all I can say right now. They're literally begging us for peace.

My initial thought: all land up to the neck, plus (if they survive that long) their bonus industrial tech for free, plus a promise not to allow any other teams to use their lands as a staging ground for an invasion of GS (I know that part isn't worth much, but it's something).

Crying "uncle" Damn straight.

-Arrian

	04-06-2003 23:57									#59
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Oh, and one more thing: I want their eastern immortal stack destroyed. Either in-game or via peace negotiations - those units have to go bye-bye.

-Arrian

	05-06-2003 00:49									#60
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Vox is such a PitA

What is PitA?

Vox: finally, an official message requesting peace. Last turn worked well.

Giving us D'Ville and abandoning Eliopolis, definitely. We can offer free iron from us when we mention that. I'd add to that getting Vox's bonus industrial-age tech for free, as Arrian suggested.
Also, I'd tell them that peace is based on trust, yada yada, and if they want us to trust them then they should prove themselves worthy by not attacking any of our units and withdrawing from the area surrounding Inchon.
Furthermore, they must move their immortals near Sandstorm 7 (onto plains) so we could kill them, and let us capture their 3 catapults.