04-06-2003 10:30									#1
	Turn 109, 390 BC Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

I got the turn but I gotta split in a few minutes. I don't even have time to take screenshots.
Please fill this in for me.
Report of what's going on in the next post.

	04-06-2003 10:34									#2
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Well, nothing new in our territory (Vox hasn't moved towards Monsoon), but I can't scroll up and see what's up in Inchon/off until we're done with the popups, and I have to leave now anyway.
Btw, I checked the previous save and Monsoon should expand this turn.

	04-06-2003 11:34									#3
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I don't have much time myself right now, but I went ahead and played through the production phase. I'm assuming no one had his heart too set on rushing a cat in Monsoon.

With Monsoon's borders expanded, we can now see D1 and D2 without the need to scout with galleys. Vox is definitely pulling back. D2-1 has only a single pike, and D2-2 is down to two pikes and two regular immortals. D1 has a vet warrior on it, and D2 has three vet immortals and two regulars.

Vox has not attempted to hit our Inchoff landing yet. Either they don't realize what happens to their colony when we build a city there, or they recognized how ugly the loss proposition would get if they attack (especially considering that a failed attack would leave a mountain uncovered).

Around Inchon, Vox has a vet spear at I7; a vet pike, a vet spear, a regular immortal, and three cats at I3; and a vet pike, a regular pike, and three vet immortals at I3-3. Elipolis is defended by the warrior that was on the hill last turn. There's a low chance of complete success, but I'm tempted to hit the stack at D3 in order to wear it down and, if we're very lucky, "requisition" those three cats. (Of course if we'd succeed, the MedInf that takes the cats would be dead meat, but I'd consider the results well worth it if we succeed.) Vox's galley near Inchoff seems to have pulled back toward their core. (Either that or they're bringing in a new galley and hid the one that was previously in our view, but that seems unlikely.)

	04-06-2003 11:37									#4
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I went ahead and fired our cats. Five hits out of seven! That leaves Vox with four immortals at two hit points each and one with only a single hit point. If we have any luck at all with our cats next turn, next turn is probably the logical time to take the stack out.

	04-06-2003 11:43									#5
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By the way, Vox is asking for peace in-game (second turn in a row, I think). I dismissed their offer, since the words "unconditional surrender" were missing.

	04-06-2003 11:48									#6
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Screenshot is sent.

	04-06-2003 12:08									#7
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Has Vox communicated anything outside of the game to anyone?

	04-06-2003 13:41									#8
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Has Vox communicated anything outside of the game to anyone?

Dosen't seem like it, doee anyone want to drop me them a line? I was thinking along the lines of ...

"We see that you have offered peace for the second turn in the row. We did not accept as it did not appear to be an unconditional surrender. Anything less, and Gathering Storm suggests you load up one of your galleys with a settler and find a new home while you still have the chance."

Mss

	04-06-2003 13:44									#9
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I'm not sure there is a mandate to negotiate at this point. If Vox wants peace, they should do more than put empty offers on the table.

	04-06-2003 13:52									#10
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I'm not sure there is a mandate to negotiate at this point. If Vox wants peace, they should do more than put empty offers on the table.

True.... Thus the tone. I am of the opinion that we do not broach it until AFTER D'ville falls, though it be last.

They still have the attitude of "our forces are knocking down your doors.... " Instead of "how do we appease you, great GS?"

We still need unit production to avoid any shortages. I count 3.5 to 4 fronts for at least 2 or three turns. Then we would be back down to 2 fronts, unless Vox has any tricks up their sleeve.

BTW what atre the chances of a bobian gang up?

Mss

	04-06-2003 14:14									#11
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Dissident's post on the daily war report thread (when was the last one of those?) is certainly sounding more defiant than abject...

	04-06-2003 15:02									#12
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I wonder how his response in the thread matches with the in game peace offer (the second one, if I'm not mistaken).

We should get reinforcements up to Inchon quickly- we have a galley waiting for that, and the rest should be back ASAP for another round.

quote: Vox has not attempted to hit our Inchoff landing yet. Either they don't realize what happens to their colony when we build a city there, or they recognized how ugly the loss proposition would get if they attack (especially considering that a failed attack would leave a mountain uncovered).

That's great!
I couldn't be happier- In the midst of the confusion that was inflicted upon Vox, they probably forgot up this- otherwise they would have at least attacked with the one not standing on the Iron- What could a bunch of Pikes on a mountain do, besides sit there?

	04-06-2003 15:10									#13
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There is no excuse for what Vox did. That's just plain wrong- not attacking unfortified Pikes on grassland- what can they do with this Immortals that is in any way better than attacking an unfortified unit on the flatlands, besides moving it so it could attack someplace else?

Don't they realize their units will die fighting? whether they attack or whether we attack.

The smart move (or lack of movement, in this regard) Vox made this turn is to keep their eastern stack in place- they have nothing better to do with it besides making sure a few more of our units stay where they can't do much good, for as long as possible.

	04-06-2003 15:26									#14
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Has Vox communicated anything outside of the game to anyone?

Betahound was in the spdg chat last night. He seemed quite jovial about the inchon thing.

	04-06-2003 15:27									#15
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quote: Originally posted by ManicStarSeed BTW what atre the chances of a bobian gang up?

I think this should be a serious concern for us.

	04-06-2003 15:38									#16
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Re the eastern stack - we may already be able to begin moving units away to other places.

With 4 immortals on 2 hp and 1 on 1hp, their odds against 2 vet pikemen fortified on mountains are:

n prob
0 9.3%
1 23.3%
2 67.4%

n is the no. of surviving pikes. So there is only a 9% chance they'd kill 2 pikes on a mountain, leaving them 2-4 units surviving.

With 3 pikemen, the odds are

n prob
0 0.6%
1 3.4%
2 22.1%
3 73.9%

The extra pikeman reduces their chances to very close to zero, and (more importantly) reduces our chance of losing a pike from 40% to 30%. (very roughly).

We could get away with 2 pikes on each mountain in an emergency, and any more than 3 is probably an extravanagce. If we have more than 3 pikes in any of the three positions, they can be safely re-deployed elsewhere (catapult effects ignored in this - 2 pikes with 3 defensive catapult hits out of 7 are stronger than 3 pikes).

	04-06-2003 15:49									#17
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Addendum :

2 pikes and 2 MI are sufficient for defense purposes on each position. I assume we'll want to keep some MI in the mountains to kill Vox when they all get to 1 hp, so 2 pikes and 2 MI on each mountain (giving 6 MI to finish them off when we're ready) is plenty, and any extra units can be redeployed IMHO

FWIW here are the odds for the Vox stack against 2 pike and 2 MI, all veteran and fortified:

n prob
0 0.05%
1 0.56%
2 4.6%
3 24.3%
4 70.5%

So I propose that we keep 2 pikes and 2 MI on each mountain. Maybe we want to leave the north mountain as it is (3 pikes 1 MI) unless we can ship another MI there and take the pike off this turn. Other units are then free to reinforce Inchoff or to move west to pressure D'ville and defend Monsoon.

	04-06-2003 15:59									#18
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The most pikes we have on any eastern tiles are three. On the other hand, it's tempting to pull a pike each from SS6 and H8 to reinforce Inchon (considering that practically Vox's entire army seems to be planning to converge there). That would still leave two pikes, a vet MedInf, a regular MedInf, and a fast-mover (unless we move those forward too) on each mountain, and the MedInfs are needed next turn to attack the immortals. (There's also a MedInf at H888 that can participate in the attack, but the units there are positioned well to be shuttled to Inchoff quickly after we've finished Vox's stack.) [Edit: Crosspost.]

	04-06-2003 16:02									#19
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What do folks think of sending our two elite WCs that haven't generated leaders yet to Inchon on the galley we finished last turn?

	04-06-2003 16:08									#20
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I'm in favour of that plan. The more chances we can give those things to fight the better.

	04-06-2003 16:10									#21
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Pulling out those 2 pikes makes sense to me. Do we want to send the galleys to Inchon, or hold them around in the hope that Vox make a break from the mountains and they get to chase some wounded immortals on the plains, which seems quite a plausible scenario to me.

	04-06-2003 16:11									#22
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Also, do we want to see if we can get lucky trying to capture some cats? The down side is that Vox would get cat shots at our MedInfs on their way in, which would hurt our already-not-great odds of winning three fights out of three. Vulture, if you want to run the odds (as best you can with cats involved), assuming fortification after movement in a turn doesn't count, Vox has an unfortified veteran pike, a fortified veteran spear, and an unfortified regular immortal.

	04-06-2003 16:14									#23
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quote: Originally posted by vulture Pulling out those 2 pikes makes sense to me. Do we want to send the galleys to Inchon, or hold them around in the hope that Vox make a break from the mountains and they get to chase some wounded immortals on the plains, which seems quite a plausible scenario to me.

Please clarify. Galleys don't chase units around on plains, so you're obviously not explaining the entirety of what you have in mind.

	04-06-2003 16:16									#24
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One other issue: We have a choice of whether to send two galleys forward for blockade duty or bring them all back for additional troops. With Vox appearing to be preparing to concentrate its troops for an attack on Inchon, I'm inclined to use everything we have to deliver reinforcements.

	04-06-2003 16:19									#25
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Best case scenario (all cats miss), if we attack with 3 vet MI, we have a 37.4% chance of capturing the cats (on average we kill 2 units, lose 1, and fail to capture the cats). Worst case scenario, both cat shots hit (they have two cats there right?), we have a 24.6% chance of taking the cats. Most likely result is the same as the best case scenario, but obviously there is more chance that we lose a few units, but not by a huge margin.

	04-06-2003 16:20									#26
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Requested clarification: by 'galleys' is obviously our new, ultra-secret codename for elite WCs...

	04-06-2003 16:27									#27
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Vox has three cats there, so figure odds in the neighborhood of 25%-30%. Considering that odds are we'll hurt Vox a bit whether we get the cats or not, and considering the total disaster it would be for Vox if we get lucky and capture their cats, it seems worth trying.

	04-06-2003 16:37									#28
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Okay, 3 catapults then. Assuming a 50% chance of catapult attack success, that gives us (n is no of defenders surviving)

n prob
0 27.6% (we get catapults)
1 41.0%
2 24.9%
3 6.5%

So counting 3 or 2 wins as a success, and 1 or 0 as a failure, we have 68.6% chance of success and 31.4% chance of failure, or pretty much 2/3 and 1/3, which suggests to me that we ought to go for it. In the worst case (all three cats hit) we still have a 57% chance of success by these terms, and have more to gain than to lose. I think it is worth the gamble (plus, with the reasoning on Vox not attacking our pikes at Inchoff - it is better to try and kill a pikeman in the open than when it is fortified in a city). Go for it (unless everyone else disagrees).

EDIT: plus, we don't have to attack with everything if the first battles go badly. If we lose the first MI without scratching the pike, then I suggest we abort the mission f'rinstance.

	04-06-2003 16:39									#29
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Could yo send the save nathan .
-
Looks like something that if succesfull would be worth the risk.

	04-06-2003 16:45									#30
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My guess is that Vox is planning to hit Inchon with a huge force shortly. My thinking in moving the elite WCs forward is that they'll be handy to help clean up what's left over after Vox attacks and our MedInfs counterattack the pikes covering their attack.

If we recall all our eastern galleys, we'll have four in a position to load next turn. I'm thinking in terms of probably loading three pikes, a cat, and four vet MedInfs on them (assuming it still looks like Vox is pulling its forces north to attack Inchon). That, plus two elite WCs, should give us a very solid defense and a decent counterattack potential.