23-06-2003 04:20									#61
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Don't you think Europe should have the ability to act independently of the US?

	23-06-2003 04:25									#62
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As Spiffor said, Europeans were able to bring their troops to Afghanistan.

That's 10,000 troops at most, right?

	23-06-2003 04:26									#63
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Oerdin: Like in Congo?

	23-06-2003 04:30									#64
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quote: Originally posted by DanS As Spiffor said, Europeans were able to bring their troops to Afghanistan. That's 10,000 troops at most, right?

How much do you expect we send to Iraq, esp. those nations who opposed the war?

	23-06-2003 04:31									#65
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro Oerdin: Like in Congo?

1,000 unmounted French infantry does not a Army make. In fact it doesn't even make a division more like a reinforced battalion. If Vivodian were to erupt into seporatist violience tomorrow could Europe handle it without large scale US help? There are dozens of boundry disputes going back 100 years still contested in the Balkans and much of eastern Europe is a filled with local populations who'd just love to redraw the borders. Shouldn't the EU have the forces and equipment to deal with these situations before it becomes another scene of ethnic mass murder?

	23-06-2003 04:38									#66
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How much do you expect we send to Iraq, esp. those nations who opposed the war?

In the neocon's wet dream--the one off of which they were making occupation plans--ROW (including Iraq itself) was to have 60,000 troops on the ground by this Fall. This is using the back of DanS's envelope, assuming that we were to have only 100,000 troops on the ground by the beginning of Fall, and that we are fairly successfully occupying the country with 160,000 troops right now.

	23-06-2003 04:41									#67
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Oerdin: I think we are absolutely able to handle the Balkan now. The vast majority of peacekeeping forces there are European not US anymore. IIRC in 1999 the UK had the biggest contigent there (ca. 13000 men), followed by Germany (ca. 8500 men), the US came together with France and Italy as third (ca. 7000 troops for each nation).

Makes more than 35000 European troops just from four European countries....And yes, they have heavy equipment there too.

	23-06-2003 05:20									#68
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If they don't want/need to do it, then it's their choice. Let's see if, like the European posters are saying, they are indeed ready to act if something else happens in their area of influence, so to speak.

	23-06-2003 05:23									#69
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quote: Further, the US should develop better capabilities to occupy/peacekeep. Europe isn't going to do it, contrary to what some policy makers here believe. We should get real, and not fall into the trap of trying to have others be the benign face of an occupation/peacekeeping force after we have done the asskicking.

I agree wholeheartedly. The Euros (with some exceptions) are too unreliable as allies for the whole US breaks it/Europe fixes it thing to ever work. The US badly needs to create some units specifically trained for peacekeeping and nation-building duties. Having these types of units in the future would alleviate some of the problems that have cropped up in Iraq.

	23-06-2003 05:31									#70
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BUt there is 0 political will in the US congress, the White House or anywhere else for the creation of peacekeeping units.

Why should Europe participate along with the uS if the US acts (or says it is acting) purely out of it's interests. By what stretch of logic are Europe's interests the same as te US? And if so, are Europe's interest those of the US as well?

	23-06-2003 05:39									#71
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GePap: Those are precisely the questions. Lately, we've assumed that Europe would take over of the occupation/peacekeeping. It's just a lot of wishful thinking that we've indulged ourselves in for the last 8 or 9 years.

	23-06-2003 05:42									#72
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quote: Why should Europe participate along with the uS if the US acts (or says it is acting) purely out of it's interests. By what stretch of logic are Europe's interests the same as te US? And if so, are Europe's interest those of the US as well?

You're completely missing the point of this thread, GePap. DanS doesn't believe that the Euros are the reliable, peacekeeping side of the Western alliance that Robert Kagan and others have made them out to be. As such, the US needs to be prepared to take care of peacekeeping and nation-building operations on its own. I tend to agree with this analysis.

You're right that Europe's interests are not the same as America's; that's why they aren't reliable partners. However, while the diverging interests in the trans-Atlantic alliance is an interesting topic in its own right, it has little to do with the topic of this thread.

	23-06-2003 05:45									#73
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that Robert Kagan and others have made them out to be

They've assumed incorrectly. I doubt it was more conscious than that. They aren't taking all of the costs of their policies into account, among other things.

You're right that Europe's interests are not the same as America's; that's why they aren't reliable partners.

Well, I would merely state that they don't have the capability nor the political will to be reliable partners. This moots everything else, such as inclination in an immediate sense.

	23-06-2003 05:49									#74
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quote: Well, I would merely state that they don't have the capability nor the political will to be reliable partners. This moots everything else.

Very true.

	23-06-2003 05:59									#75
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What are the threats to Europe? The fact is that overall the Europeans see far less threats of a violent kind needing military force to them. It is as hard to sell to someone in Hamburg what pressing interests germany has in Iraq as it is to seel either someone in Hamburg or Dallas what pressing interest either has in the Congo.

I think the main problem is the unresolved issue of the relation to the EU as an organization to the use of force, and I think the inlfeunce of the smaller players is most likely going to weight them down. That and the issue of the Germans and their pacifism.

	23-06-2003 06:11									#76
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I don't understand why anyone here thought it would be Europe's responsibility anyway.

	23-06-2003 07:52									#77
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When I think about this too hard, I have us exiting our European alliances.

At least, we should revalue them. Europe not wanting to get involved in Iraq indicates to me that they don't really value our alliance and security umbrella highly. This is understandable, given the European (at least Western European) perception that there are no immediate threats to them. We, in turn, think the security umbrella that we provide to Europe is quite valuable. Perhaps more valuable than it actually is. Certainly something to take a fresh look at.

I don't understand why anyone here thought it would be Europe's responsibility anyway.

Because the US provides Europe with a defense that is unavailable elsewhere. Inherent in this relationship is that Europe will look favorably on American military-related or nation-building requests when they receive them (nothing is free). Of course, this isn't specific to the Iraq war, but we can measure in real time the value that Europe places on the relationship by what it is prepared to offer. Not much = not valuable.

Our Asian alliances and our UK alliance are proven to be valuable by what they have offered. They grok what's going on. PM Howard said it flat out. He knows where Australia's bread is buttered. Same with Korea and Japan.

Canada is sort of a special case. They're trying to skate by on the cheap. Well, there's nothing we can do about that.

	23-06-2003 08:12									#78
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Nice troll, but a bit too run-of-the-mill.

No oil for you Osterreich!

	23-06-2003 08:20									#79
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The US protects the Europeans from what today? From Milosevic? He was never a threat. From Saddam? (I don;t buy the "Saddam would take over the ME an collapse western economes as he moved to rule the world" bit. He offered to be our man in the ME, like we used to hasve with the Shah). International terrorism? The threat to the EU from ths is smaller than that to the US, and EU counterterrorism is as good as that of the US (which is not saying much)

quote: Our Asian alliances and our UK alliance are proven to be valuable by what they have offered. They grok what's going on. PM Howard said it flat out. He knows where Australia's bread is buttered. Same with Korea and Japan.

Maybe that is becuase Asia, unlike Europe, is rife with tensions today. And yet the contribution that the Aussies could make overall is far less than any of the big EU states, SK hasn;t contributed anything since Vietnam.

	23-06-2003 08:32									#80
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What's to discuss? Old Europe doesn't want any part of occupying Iraq, and New Europe is incapable of doing so.

The so called "coalition of the willing" are just a bunch of countries that want part of that 7.6b pie from Uncle Sam.

	23-06-2003 08:40									#81
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quote: Originally posted by DanS GePap: Those are precisely the questions. Lately, we've assumed that Europe would take over of the occupation/peacekeeping. It's just a lot of wishful thinking that we've indulged ourselves in for the last 8 or 9 years.

Well, seems like a lot of asses were made out of u and me.

YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!

As for not airlifting tanks - since when were tanks instruments of peacekeeping?

Tanks are OFFENSIVE units. Using them defensively makes them sitting ducks.

	23-06-2003 08:46									#82
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quote: Originally posted by DanS When I think about this too hard, I have us exiting our European alliances. At least, we should revalue them. Europe not wanting to get involved in Iraq indicates to me that they don't really value our alliance and security umbrella highly. This is understandable, given the European (at least Western European) perception that there are no immediate threats to them. We, in turn, think the security umbrella that we provide to Europe is quite valuable. Perhaps more valuable than it actually is. Certainly something to take a fresh look at. I don't understand why anyone here thought it would be Europe's responsibility anyway. Because the US provides Europe with a defense that is unavailable elsewhere. Inherent in this relationship is that Europe will look favorably on American military-related or nation-building requests when they receive them (nothing is free). Of course, this isn't specific to the Iraq war, but we can measure in real time the value that Europe places on the relationship by what it is prepared to offer. Not much = not valuable. Our Asian alliances and our UK alliance are proven to be valuable by what they have offered. They grok what's going on. PM Howard said it flat out. He knows where Australia's bread is buttered. Same with Korea and Japan. Canada is sort of a special case. They're trying to skate by on the cheap. Well, there's nothing we can do about that.

Matey, there's your solution. Pull all your units out of Europe and you'll have all the toys you need for the Middle East... at least for a couple of years.

Of course we don't value the US military bases in Europe. The Soviet Union no longer exists. Not to say we resent US forces in Europe - but hey, if you've got business elsewhere, then sure, YOU'D better deal with it.

It's called a "peace dividend".

	23-06-2003 09:23									#83
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quote: Originally posted by Cruddy As for not airlifting tanks - since when were tanks instruments of peacekeeping? Tanks are OFFENSIVE units. Using them defensively makes them sitting ducks.

Of course tanks are peacekeeping units. Place a couple in a troubled town and everyone will be a lot more peaceful.

The psychological impact of tanks is huge.

	23-06-2003 09:52									#84
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Chinese use them pretty good on their own population.

	23-06-2003 09:54									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Cruddy It's called a "peace dividend".

Though keep in mind a base closing can have devastating effects on the local economy.

	23-06-2003 10:19									#86
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Chinese use them pretty good on their own population.

If we had M1s in Somalia, Aidid's filthy militia would be slaughtered on that day.

	23-06-2003 10:19									#87
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Someone in this thread wondered why Europe cannot act on its own, independently from the US. Well, that's what we are beginning to do, by not sending troops to fix your mess. Europe is beginning to follow its own international interests, which are now proven to be at least partly different with America's thanks to the pre-war diplomatic crisis.

Indeed, I think DanS is right that our relationship should be reevaluated : the EU progressively feels less and less obliged to the US, and we should stop the "Alliance" nonsense that comes right from WW2 and cold war. Rather, a partnership where diverging interests are acknowledged as well as converging interests would be a much better solution.

Times are changing, and the best thing to do is to change with them. Unfortunately, the EU has still too little political unity to present a coherent project, so the status quo must still go on for now.

	23-06-2003 11:15									#88
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quote: Originally posted by DanS When I think about this too hard, I have us exiting our European alliances.

So you finally accept my point of view.

"Europe not wanting to get involved in Iraq indicates to me that they don't really value our alliance and security umbrella highly."

What alliance? Bush has flushed the remains of that alliance down the toilet. You are miscalculating if you think that that "security umbrella" means "Europe will look favorably on American military-related or nation-building requests when they receive them". You have to offer something else for that.

For EU defense policy, it's developping. The reaction force's deployment capacity of 60.000 means that about 200.000 troops out of about 2 million are integrated. The total force strength will shrink, the integrated part will grow, at some point they converge.

The real hampering problem is whether EU defense policy follows the British or the French model. I'm all for the french model, but for the time being there will to have to be some sort of compromise. But you can count on Bush and co to push us in the direction I want; they leave us with no alternative.

European defense projects... well, what was the problem with the Eurofighter? Cost overrun - hell, a problem totally unknown to military procurement elsewhere. Development started 1988, and it got delayed by a couple years mostly due to cost cuts. Oh yes, what a failure.

	23-06-2003 14:57									#89
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quote: Cruddy: You're missing my point. Europe has plenty of Armor and a fair amount of fighter planes but they don't have the ships and tranport planes needed to send large amounts of these forces rapidly to deal with emerging regional threats like Bosnia or Kosovo. It simply can't get enough of the right kinds of forces to where they need to be fast enough to be effective. To do this Europe will have to fund several new projects so it can build up it's capabilities and deal with these situations without always having to ask Washington for help everytime something comes up.

Bolding is mine. Oerdin, what rapid reaction are you talking about? Bosnia went on for years. It and Kosovo are perfect examples of EU diplomatic failures and European disability to get political will to act.

If they had the political will, it would have been easy. Do you know your geography? Bosnia is 3 hours drive from Vienna, Kosovo a little more.

If you look solely at number of troops and equipment required to beat Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia, you can see Austria could have done it herself.

And that is even without mentioning using the proxies on the ground, aka choosing a lesser evil, like US did with Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.

So no, it was not the lack of weapons and spending, it was lack of will.

	23-06-2003 15:02									#90
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Agree with one exception:

"you can see Austria could have done it herself"

We couldn't. Yes, our military sucks that much.