07-07-2003 07:23									#151
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by Spiffor

really, would there be any hate in the world after that? how could dictators be cruel to their people after having sex with them? How could people hate their neighbors after getting it on? peace on earth (OMG! i cant believe i sincerely used that smilie... you bastards! im becoming too liberal)

	07-07-2003 07:29									#152
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by DanS You've got 10 year old government soldiers fighting while high on coke. This won't be a lovefest.

That's for sure. However, if Taylor actually holds his promise this time, the loyalist adults may take back the weapons of the children, and stop giving them coke afterwards. That should reduce the danger factor enormously.
Besides, I didn't know they still continued to use children even in Monrovia. Furthermore, I thought it was more a feat of the rebels.

	07-07-2003 07:30									#153
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Kramerman:
You should use the smilie more often. His beard looks like yours

	07-07-2003 07:32									#154
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Not only that. The UK was asked to act in Sierra Leone. France was asked to act in Ivory Coast. France was also asked to act in Congo. If the US is called this time, despite Africa not being its usual playground, is because the ties between the US and Liberia aren't only historic. The US is the most likely power to have a few "Mr. Liberia" with power, people who have big informal relation networks within the country, and who have an understanding of the Liberian particulars. Had it happened in Ghana or Togo, the US wouldn't have been called in, because these countries do not belong to the irtraditional sphere of influence, and as such the US doesn't have the most dense networks and informations there.

I was involved in a minor way with our Liberia JTF in 1996. I guess if it is our turn to do a NEO, that is one thing. Not sure we want to land a battalion or two. ortake sides. At least figure out which side we will favor...ok?

	07-07-2003 07:32									#155
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Kramerman: You should use the smilie more often. His beard looks like yours

NOOOOO! calling me a hippie, no matter how subtle, is my kryptonite!

	07-07-2003 07:34									#156
	Suffering from ads?

say i look like masterchief (my avatar), or any of my avatars for that matter, and I'll love you forever...

	07-07-2003 07:36									#157
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by GP At least figure out which side we will favor...ok?

Most probably the Rebels, as they have power everywhere in the country but Monrovia, and as Taylor seems to be fighting a losing battle.
However, Bush puts Taylor's departure as a condition for intervention. This means the loyalist faction is supposed not to be in full hostility mode when the soldiers arrive. As such, you are likely not to have any strictly defined enemy. Most of your job should be to maintain order, and prevent any trouble to be made (troublemakers will most likely be designed on the fly by politicians as they sketch the transition process)

	07-07-2003 07:40									#158
	Got spare money?

The warlords(Taylor's opposition and the rebels), while probably an improvement over Taylor, are still hardly the nicest people.

	07-07-2003 07:49									#159
	Increase the size of your Attachments

This doesn't make much sense. We favor the warlords, who don't control Monrovia, while our forces would be set up in Monrovia?

	07-07-2003 07:55									#160
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi The warlords(Taylor's opposition and the rebels), while probably an improvement over Taylor, are still hardly the nicest people.

That's for sure. Actually, the main danger comes from the power vacuum once Taylor falls. Various rebellion leaders may want a too big part of the pie, and the remaining loyalists may want to add to the chaos (I suppose the upcoming chaos is the very reason why a US interventions gets so much talk).

The role of the US as a peacekeeper will be to instituate a status quo, with a balance of power within the new leadership. As such, the 'bad guys' will probably be redifined every now and then, as negociations advance. The role of the US army is first to be impressive enough so that Rebellious factions keep quiet; it will also be to prevent any interfaction fight to bring chaos in Monrovia.

That's the problem and the subtelty with peacekkeping. You just don't send soldiers by telling them : "your enemy until the end of the war is X". It changes every day. The onyl thing that does not change is that every threatening person gets killed really quick, whatever the faction he's from.

	07-07-2003 07:57									#161
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by DanS This doesn't make much sense. We favor the warlords, who don't control Monrovia, while our forces would be set up in Monrovia?

Don't forget Bush made Taylor's departure as a condition for the intervention. Taylor's departure assumes the loyalists will generally give up fighting except for some splinter groups. Save for a few possible ambushes, Monrovia is not to look like an hostile city by the time the US army comes in.

	07-07-2003 07:57									#162
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: This doesn't make much sense. We favor the warlords, who don't control Monrovia, while our forces would be set up in Monrovia?

The warlords don't control Monrovia only because they signed the ceasefire with Taylor when they were on the edges of the city. Once Taylor leaves, the rebels will move in and set up a new government. If there is no external guidance, chances are that some warlord will sneak his way into some dictatorial position and plunge the nation into an even bigger pile of crap. But maybe, if America or the UN (or, preferably, both) get involved to maintain peace and regulate the transition, Liberia can have a new lease on life.

Of course, it still won't be a sure thing, but it's better than doing nothing.

	07-07-2003 08:04									#163
	Tired of ads?

I don't know, guys. Sounds sort of sketchy to me. Are the rebels to use US forces just to strengthen their own hold on power, when their power was insufficient to take Monrovia in the first place? Is that a wise use of American power?

	07-07-2003 08:11									#164
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: I don't know, guys. Sounds sort of sketchy to me. Are the rebels to use US forces just to strengthen their own hold on power, when their power was insufficient to take Monrovia in the first place? Is that a wise use of American power?

I understand your reservations, and I have some of my own. I'm not 100% sure of the correctness of anything at the moment, but I do think U.S. intervention would be a bonus.

I mean, now, the rebels ARE the government. Taylor is essentially all but gone. It's a non-issue. He's either going to asylum himself away or he's dead. Since the rebels have pretty much won, if the West wants to attempt to 'fix' the situation, we have no choice but to work with whoever's in power. That will now be the rebels, who, I suppose, won't really be 'rebels' anymore.

I think there are basically 2 main options:

-West does nothing. A new Sam Doe takes over and Liberians are screwed 'til the end of the next civil war, and probably beyond.
-West intervenes. Formidable (and it'll have to be formidable, no one wants another Mogadishu) military presence prevents more civil war, and U.N./U.S./whatever specialists aid in the formation of a government that will be as fair and functional as possible.

But hey, I could be wrong.

	07-07-2003 08:15									#165
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't know, guys. Sounds sort of sketchy to me. Are the rebels to use US forces just to strengthen their own hold on power? Is that a wise use of American power?

The rebels will not use the American power, except if the American command is stupid enough to trust their soldiers to the rebel command (ain't gonna happen).
The hostility towards taylor is nearly universal in Liberia, which makes things simple, at least until he's gone. The rebels will not have trouble with the population when establishing the government, at first, but other problems may arise :
1. some ambitious rebel leader wants to be the big chief and starts his own mini-rebellion, starting the chaos again.
2. some organized loyalists wreak havoc in Monrovia to demoralize the population
3. the rebel government becomes quickly worse than Taylor was, and the population becomes hostile, creating a new rebellion and starting the whole mess again.

Sending a peacekeeping force along a diplomatic team will help resolve these problems since :
1. The diplomats will try to build a consensus between rebel leaders, and the presence of the army will motive them not to take any chances.
2. The US troops (as well as Nigerian troops or reorganized government troops) will considerably lower the guerilla/terrorist threat.
3. Diplomats monitoring the transition will attempt to limit the potential blunders of the new ruling elite. Besides, by helping maintain order, it will help the population not to feel the need to revolt again.

Besides, by helping to set up a new government, the diplomatic team will help making semi-efficient communications between Monrovia and the rest of the country. This to avoid any local underpotentate to feel he's the boss.

	07-07-2003 08:18									#166
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

If we are on the side of the rebels, what are we going to do? Why not just endorse the rebels and cheer them on as they kill Taylor? Just curious? What are we after?

	07-07-2003 08:19									#167
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

I'd like to point out that force should not be the main tool for the operation to succeed. Diplomacy and bureacracy will be the real things at work, while the military makes sure nobody fecks with the agreements.

If the US goes to Liberia all guns blazing, after having defined somebody as a villain that must get eliminated, then it'll be a new Mogadishu. If the US takes inspiration at the tedious yet successful processes in Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast, then there will be success.

	07-07-2003 08:21									#168
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Originally posted by GP If we are on the side of the rebels, what are we going to do? Why not just endorse the rebels and cheer them on as they kill Taylor? Just curious? What are we after?

Stability. Avoiding the potential trouble that will emerge in the future. Making sure the diplomats can do their work with actually some weight.

Besides, it would be a bad idea to kill Taylor. It's always useless to angry his sympathizers, even though they are very few.

	07-07-2003 08:23									#169
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Stability? ok. What do we want. We want the rebels to form a government? Will we help them out? And I thought there were 2 competing rebels. Which one do we help and which do we ****?

	07-07-2003 08:24									#170
	Put an end to popups!

I mean, now, the rebels ARE the government.

What are they governing? Not the capital, for sure. Best I can tell, there is no government in the capital.

	07-07-2003 08:29									#171
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by GP I thought there were 2 competing rebels.

That's what may happen in the future. Currently, the rebels seem united behind defeating Taylor. Besides, we don't know much about their internal organization.
A military presence has the benefit to reduce the odds of one rebel leader to stir trouble. Passive intimidation's the word for that: your mere presence will make any potential troublemaker to think twice before raising ****.

quote: Which one do we help and which do we ****?

The one who will not behave properly in the negociations, and who will begin to use force for his personal gain. The diplomats are to make everyone agree and make concessions. The military is here to make sure these people don't wipe their ass with the agreement and take the power by force.

Yes, we are talking about prevention rather than punishment. Strikingly suprising concept don't you think ?

	07-07-2003 08:34									#172
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Spiffor, this is the kind of **** our troops would encounter.

A child soldier wearing a teddy bear backpack points his gun at a photographer in a street of Monrovia. Under mounting pressure pressure to lead an international peacekeeping force for Liberia the US administration left the door open to the possibility following a closed door White House meeting(AFP/File/Georges Gobet)

July 2.

Attachment: capt.sge.dpx14.020703082318.photo01.default-384x274.jpg
This has been downloaded 46 time(s).

	07-07-2003 08:39									#173
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I stand corrected, I didn't know the loyalists were still using them in Monrovia.

It is very likely these children will be killed on sight if the loyalists don't take back their weapons at the surrendrance. heck, it's very likely they'll be killed on sight by the rebels when they enter the city. Or maybe even by the loyalists themselves who wouldn't want to take any risk taking back the kids' weapons.

	07-07-2003 08:43									#174
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Spiffor, this is the kind of **** our troops would encounter.

Quite right. And if the West intervenes now, we may have a chance to stop the vicious cycle that will continually produce these kinds of horrible images.

	07-07-2003 08:46									#175
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

And if the West intervenes now

Oh, now it's the "West"?

Where are the Canadian troops?

I have a healthy skepticism about whether we could produce a good outcome here, or that there aren't others in the region with more to gain by stability and up to the task. Might be better to do as GP says and cheer on the rebels.

	07-07-2003 08:47									#176
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by DanS I mean, now, the rebels ARE the government. What are they governing? Not the capital, for sure. Best I can tell, there is no government in the capital.

Taylor is 'governing' the capital right now, if you want to get technical, but as I said, that is only because of the armistice that stopped the rebels on the outskirts of the city. Once Taylor leaves for Nigeria, then the rebels will move in and either screw things up royally or begin to reform the country into a new democracy. The latter is much more likely to happen if American/UN troops and a diplomatic team come in to set things on the right track.

All I meant was that, since Taylor is all but done, we have no choice but to deal with the revolutionaries. They control 90% of the country, and they will be running the whole show when Charlie's finally out of the picture. I say we try our best to make sure this doesn't devolve into an even more gruesome murderfest than it already is.

	07-07-2003 08:49									#177
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by DanS Might be better to do as GP says and cheer on the rebels.

And let the cycle of violence begin anew

	07-07-2003 08:49									#178
	Put an end to popups!

quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I stand corrected, I didn't know the loyalists were still using them in Monrovia. It is very likely these children will be killed on sight if the loyalists don't take back their weapons at the surrendrance. heck, it's very likely they'll be killed on sight by the rebels when they enter the city. Or maybe even by the loyalists themselves who wouldn't want to take any risk taking back the kids' weapons.

I wouldn't take any risks disarming them, would you?

It's "put the ****ing weapond down NOW kid" or else waste him. Most will eventually get the hint.

	07-07-2003 08:52									#179
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Most will eventually get the hint.

I think most kids will eventually get the bullet. They were the dispensable tissue paper of this conflict.
Not that I am really sad at them being killed: they are wasted beyond repair, and they are most likely only to create further death and suffering.

	07-07-2003 08:53									#180
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Oh, now it's the "West"?

Well, I thought you Americans might get mad if I kept saying that it was only the U.S.'s responsibility. A U.S.-led U.N. force would be ideal for me. Not that the U.N. would be absolutely necessary (the French didn't go through it for Cote D'Ivoire), seeing as there are relevant historical ties between the U.S. and Liberia. But it would still be nice.

quote: Where are the Canadian troops?

Afghanistan or Yugoslavia (oh, and we've got a few support people in... wait for it... IRAQ). We only have about 25 000 active for cryin' out loud... We're stretched to our limit! I would not object to Chretien upping defence spending quite a bit. Not at all.

quote: I have a healthy skepticism about whether we could produce a good outcome here. Might be better to do as GP says and cheer on the rebels.

What are we cheering for them to do, exactly? They've already won the war. Taylor's leaving, they get to move in and set up a government with whatever's left of the old republic.

I suppose we could cheer them on to not screw it up and devolve into warlord-rule, but how effective would that be?