07-07-2003 08:55									#181
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Not really wasted beyond repair, but it would take more resources than are typically given to African countries. Too bad the international community is gutless about giving the rope to the *******s who kidnap, "train" and lead these kids.

	07-07-2003 09:02									#182
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Well, I thought you Americans might get mad if I kept saying that it was only the U.S.'s responsibility.

I thought we dealt with this earlier in the thread. This isn't the responsibility of the US (nor the "West" for that matter).

What are we cheering for them to do, exactly? They've already won the war. Taylor's leaving, they get to move in and set up a government with whatever's left of the old republic.

Why would the US need to be involved in this? If the rebels are strong enough to take over, then they should take over. If they aren't strong enough to take over, then we are supposed to aid them in taking it over?

Again, the story doesn't make as much sense as it should.

	07-07-2003 09:04									#183
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Why would the US need to be involved in this? If the rebels are strong enough to take over, then they should take over. If they aren't strong enough to take over, then we are supposed to aid them in taking it over?

The rebels are strong enough to take over. They aren't strong enough to reestablish stability in this mess, alone.

	07-07-2003 09:05									#184
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So our purpose is to restrain the rebels? Just trying to pin you down, here. I would give anything to hear the breifings that the CAT team is sending to the J-3 OPCON at Stuttgart now.

	07-07-2003 09:10									#185
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quote: So our purpose is to restrain the rebels? Just trying to pin you down, here. I would give anything to hear the breifings that the CAT team is sending to the J-3 OPCON at Stuttgart now.

No, 'our' purpose is to allow the 'rebels' (who are really representing everyone in the country by now) to make a smooth transition into a multi-party democracy. Since there are warlords and such in the mix, trusting the new republic to form itself properly is a very risky proposition.

What Spiffor said is exactly right, the new regime will need help to stabilise and establish a working system to govern the nation.

Just a peacekeeping and diplomatic force are required. We're not really restraining or attacking, just... maintaining.

	07-07-2003 09:10									#186
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They aren't strong enough to reestablish stability in this mess, alone.

Why not? If they are incapable of ruling, then the US won't be able to make them so. Further, Liberia hasn't seen stability in two decades. Lastly, even if you think they are capable, but could use some help, why would the US be a necessary part of this with boots on the ground?

	07-07-2003 09:11									#187
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"Die Statue of Liberty ist Kaputt"

	07-07-2003 09:11									#188
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quote: Originally posted by GP So our purpose is to restrain the rebels?

Your purpose would be to restrain any trouble from happening, wherever that trouble comes from. At least, that's what a peacekeeping mission looks like.

The recent transitional operations in Western Africa also shown that force wasn't the only, even not the most important, tool to achieve stability. It is a vital tool nonetheless.

You ask me from the beginning who are the baddies you should kill. And I'm telling you from the beginning the baddies are yet unknown, it is not even known whether there will be at all. So far, the factions officially tolerate your presence, and the population is likely to cheer it for a time. I.e, there is no mainstream group of hostiles.

	07-07-2003 09:16									#189
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quote: Why not? If they are incapable of ruling, then the US won't be able to make them so. Further, Liberia hasn't seen stability in two decades.

If the West pulled out all support from Afghanistan, would Karzai be able to hold things together all by his lonesome? No. Does that mean Afghans are inherently incapable of governing themselves? No. It just means that they need some time to sort things out and make the whole acountry a little less volatile.

Same situation here. The rebels can take over the capital military, but they can't necessarily make the change from sorting things out with guns to sorting things out with legislation without some snags coming up (warlords---> civil war---> cycle continues). It would just help things immensely if there was a stable force to aid and guide the transition. And that's all.

	07-07-2003 09:19									#190
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Your purpose would be to restrain any trouble from happening, wherever that trouble comes from. At least, that's what a peacekeeping mission looks like. The recent transitional operations in Western Africa also shown that force wasn't the only, even not the most important, tool to achieve stability. It is a vital tool nonetheless. You ask me from the beginning who are the baddies you should kill. And I'm telling you from the beginning the baddies are yet unknown, it is not even known whether there will be at all. So far, the factions officially tolerate your presence, and the population is likely to cheer it for a time. I.e, there is no mainstream group of hostiles.

I need more. It doesn't add up. If you need the biggest baddest ass on the block, you must have at least suspicions of who will give trouble. I hope the CAT is well selected.

	07-07-2003 09:23									#191
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quote: Originally posted by DanS They aren't strong enough to reestablish stability in this mess, alone. Why not?

The country is in shambles. The end of Taylor is also likely to bring the end of the Rebel unity. The power vacuum is likely to create new shortages and pillages. the dire infrastructure, and lack of political communication makes unsure whether the leaders established in Monrovia will have control over the rest of the country. There are overwhelming odds against the ability from the Rebels to restore stability in Liberia. That would need cohesion and skills. Warlors aren't well known for that.

quote: If they are incapable of ruling, then the US won't be able to make them so.

Yes the US (or any other power having a real weight there) can. It can force the new leaders to discuss rather than kill each other to solve their differences (hint: Ivory Coast). With the help of other African armies, it can maintain civil order and as such keep the population's sympathy high. That can buy enough time for specialists to be brought into the government, making it more stable. In short, the US intervention can hamper trouble from emerging, and can buy time for a solid government to emerge. Two things the Rebels alone don't have the resources for.

quote: Further, Liberia hasn't seen stability in two decades.

So what ? Is Liberia doomed never to know stability until the end of the times ?

quote: Lastly, even if you think they are capable, but could use some help, why would the US be a necessary part of this with boots on the ground?

I assume you mean the military involvement ? Simply for the American negociators to have leverage in Liberia. To avoid major trouble (despite most of the grunt work should be made by other African armies). To make potential rogue generals thinking twice before starting their very own guerilla. All these things they couldn't do without force. Basically, without boots on the ground, the US mission would be about as powerless as any UN mission.

	07-07-2003 09:26									#192
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quote: Originally posted by GP I need more. It doesn't add up. If you need the biggest baddest ass on the block, you must have at least suspicions of who will give trouble. I hope the CAT is well selected.

Doesn't it have to do with the fact that the combat area will be ill suited for mass operations, and that the allegiances may change daily, hence requiring soldiers with huge internal resources ?

	07-07-2003 09:35									#193
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That's fine. I still want a great briefing from the CAT. And none of this has satisfied me that we have any national interest here. Some sort of "nice-nice" for our allies that we disagreed with over Iraq doesn't make it for me. Have we decided that it is our role to police Africa? Do they have any minerals or anything? Terrorist support? Threaten neighbors with minerals?

	07-07-2003 09:36									#194
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There are overwhelming odds against the ability from the Rebels to restore stability in Liberia. That would need cohesion and skills. Warlors aren't well known for that.

Sure they are. Even warlords (or especially warlords) have organizational skills. Or maybe these guys don't. But if they don't, then there's no hope for them at the national level. And nobody can really help them in this very much.

Yes the US (or any other power having a real weight there) can. It can force the new leaders to discuss rather than kill each other to solve their differences

Perhaps I'm not making myself clear. If they don't have the political and organizational capability to take over the capital, then you will just be rolling in your troops to bless an incapable regime. You might think that's better than nothing, but damn dude, that bites as an outcome if the US is to risk its troops for this.

So what ? Is Liberia doomed never to know stability until the end of the times ?

I don't know. Why don't you ask them and the rest of the Africans?

Simply for the American negociators to have leverage in Liberia.

I don't think that the American negotiators are leading the negotiation effort.

	07-07-2003 09:38									#195
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quote: Originally posted by GP That's fine. I still want a great briefing from the CAT. And none of this has satisfied me that we have any national interest here. Some sort of "nice-nice" for our allies that we disagreed with over Iraq doesn't make it for me. Have we decided that it is our role to police Africa? Do they have any minerals or anything? Terrorist support? Threaten neighbors with minerals?

They have a large Islamic population and a nice location if things go to **** in Nigeria.

	07-07-2003 09:40									#196
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quote: That's fine. I still want a great briefing from the CAT. And none of this has satisfied me that we have any national interest here. Some sort of "nice-nice" for our allies that we disagreed with over Iraq doesn't make it for me. Have we decided that it is our role to police Africa? Do they have any minerals or anything? Terrorist support? Threaten neighbors with minerals?

LAMCO and AmLib seem to be doing quite well with regard to minerals, although I don't know how well they've done during the civil war, but...

An excerpt from AmLib's site:

"Liberia is one the least explored and most highly prospective countries for minerals in the world. Its geological setting is one of pre-Cambrian schist belt granite-gneiss craton terrain, with Archaean rocks in the west of the country, and Birmian rocks in the east. Liberia has economic concentrations of iron ore, diamonds, gold, and barite, and is highly prospective for platinum, palladium, nickel, manganese, and uranium. A recent offshore seismic study indicated the possibility of significant oil reserves. AmLib United Minerals leads the way in the responsible development of Liberia’s mineral resources."

http://www.am-lib.com/

	07-07-2003 09:41									#197
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quote: Originally posted by GP Have we decided that it is our role to police Africa?

No, it's the usual role of the former colonial powers, because of the influence and information networks they have kept in their former colonies. In the one and only case of Liberia, the 'colonial power' is the US.

quote: Do they have any minerals or anything?

Plenty.

quote: Terrorist support?

Potentially, if the mineral resources, and the money associated, is in the wrong hands.

quote: Threaten neighbors with minerals?

An unchecked instability somewhere in western Africa may have a domino effect on the whole region, and lead this important mineral producer to instability. Nobody wants it.

	07-07-2003 09:44									#198
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The only real thing that we can hang our hat on is Taylor and Co. working with al Qaeda in diamond-laundering pre 9/11.

	07-07-2003 09:47									#199
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Well...I really can't argue about it since I'm so ignorant.

Just out of interest, I can tell you that I created the first ever Dial-up, SIPRNET (and GEECS), using a Med Squadron, INMARSAT (at 25 bucks a minute) a PC and a couple of STU-3 phones. Stole all the equipment off people's desks and shipped it out on an airplane. The N-6 loved it. So did EUCOM. If they had gone to the Air Force, they would have never gotten anything without a budget for it. But when the JTF is a battalion of marines and an offshore ship, you treat it like your baby...

	07-07-2003 09:48									#200
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This was for the JTF in Monrovia in 1996.

	07-07-2003 09:51									#201
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Sure they are. Even warlords (or especially warlords) have organizational skills. Or maybe these guys don't. But if they don't, then there's no hope for them at the national level. And nobody can really help them in this very much.

When I meant "cohesion", I meant cohesion between potentially rivalling warlords. The chances that they all remain buddy-buddy after the fall of Taylor is very small, except if they are forced to discussed and to make concessions in negociations deciding the new power structure. Basically, the aim is to establish a new power structure peacefully. When I wrote "skills", I meant economic and juridic skills, the kind of things you need to build a country.

quote: they don't have the political and organizational capability to take over the capital

They have taken over the whoel rest of the country ! It's not like the loyalists gave it on a silver plate. The Rebels have the military means to take Monrovia, but it would be a bloody battle, very bloody for the rebel camp. Having Monrovia handed out on a silverplate thanks to the ceasefire is much less costly.

quote: I don't think that the American negotiators are leading the negotiation effort.

They will mediate the negociations (more accurately, the elaboration of the new power structure between potential rivals), and will make sure the environment for these engociations are satisfying. The Americans will probably not lead the negociations, but they're the only ones to make them possible.

	07-07-2003 10:24									#202
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quote: Have we decided that it is our role to police Africa?

The UN's mission statement is to bring peace to the world, so yeah.

Maybe I just can't understand some of the arguments. Why can't a UN peacekeeping force and a team of negotiators go into Liberia? The rebel factions are forced to talk things out and with the help of the UN a democratic, stable government is set up. The peacekeeping troops will be there to stop the ambitious rebel leaders from trying to fight and take control of the country.

If we don't go in, the warlords go at it, each trying to take over the country, but none strong enough to actually do it and the whole country is engulfed in civil war. It would be Lebanon style anarchy, and lots of people would die.

It seems to me that the first option is the best. But maybe I'm just stupid and I am not understanding what the other people are saying.