06-07-2003 06:52									#1
	CDG's Evil Plan Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

A scary thought has been commented by various people in the chat lately, and it's a thought which has a lot of arguments in favor.


Bascially the idea is that the whole CDG-GCA thing is a ruse, at least on CDG's part, on what is their true objective: US.

The reasoning behind this is simply power politics, and geo-strategy. CDG has perhaps realized that every turn that passes, they will become weaker to us to the point that it won't matter when, but that we'll strike. And overwhelmingly win.

So, putting yourself in their shoes, think about it: you are unsure what your powerful neighbor will do if you swoop in against your weak one. If CDG goes deep into GCA then they leave their backs exposed. And a Poly invasion must be going into everyone's mind at CDG right now. CDG need the military and the economy for one massive and quick strike against us as soon as possible.

How to do that? Easy. Golden Age. Believe it or not, despite their GA being in despotism, they might feel that a GA now might be more usefull to buildup a quick stack of Immortals and invade us, rather than wait until we become too powerful for them even with a GA. It is not an unreasonable point of view.

Their latest actions with GCA confirm this in a way. Quick invasion, trigger their GA, sue for peace. Transfer their troops north while they build up more. Then attack us.

It's a wild call actually, but one they might feel will work. Not only that, but perhaps they are totally committed to the notion that this is the last chance they're ever gonna get against us, and that our mere presence will restrict them from undertaking action against any other civ since they'll fear we'll invade them. And, if they stay put in their lousy terrain, they'll lose anyway. It's now or never, do or die (makes you kinda glad now that despite our also crappy terrain, we only got one neighbor unlike the other too... being isolated is a blessing )

Again, this is just a thought. I am not 100% convinced myself, but CDG is a very unpredictable team and we should expect anything. Even an attack.

-MZ

	06-07-2003 07:00									#2
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btw, it seems me and Arnelos are on the same wavelength at the exact same time. Here's a thread he started which also considers this possibility: http://www.apolyton.net/forums/show...483#post2150715

I suggest whoever reads this one also read the other.

	06-07-2003 07:43									#3
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They would only need one to two Immortals for such a manuever; and I was under the impression they sent EVERYTHING south? That would be an awfully risky gambit simply to make their actions believable, would it not?

	06-07-2003 11:29									#4
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This is not a ruse; I repeat: This is not a ruse!

CDG is just using it's Civ traits as well as their small minds can. I give them credit for using the Immortals this early, the combo of GCA being away on another mission, and their apparent sucking up to GCA prior to this was a pretty good cover for them and these actions combined to give CDG a great opportunity right now.

	06-07-2003 13:37									#5
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree This is not a ruse; I repeat: This is not a ruse!

"THERE IS NO NEED TO PANIC!"

	06-07-2003 14:41									#6
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If this is a ruse, then not only are we a bunch of gullible idiots, CDG and GCA are the world's craftiest con men ... AND naively trusting of each other to a degree which truely is unimaginable.

Just think it through...

They scheme together and decide to fool everyone by faking a war between them. But instead of starting it on their own with a fake public spectacle like they did when Kentonio was out of power, they wait for the absolute perfect time, wait for GC and CFC to be on the verge of war??

They wait for CFC to invite CDG to join in an alliance.

Then wait while CFC and CDG invite US to join in an alliance that would give US a RoP thru CDG's territory??

They get mad when we reveal to GC that CDG wants to attack GC *acting* like it's a secret plan and faking us out with acting skills that are oscar worthy from a guy like Michaelis Rex???

CDG waits several turns before attacking. Why? Because they need to get troops down there or because they want us to THINK they need to get troops down there? Are they that insightful?

They attack with a sizeable stack, not just 1 immortals for GA purposes. Why?

GC invites us to attack CDG, practically begging us to do so. What if we had, given the fact that they lead us to believe that CDG is wide open to be attacked, and given the likelihood that it was (we saw their northern cities empty of units).

CDG puts on a hell of a performance with faked PMs and faked honor issues trying to convince us not to attack them. Why, and how could they possibly be that convincing? These guys are not master thespians.

How could they possibly trust each other enough and coordinate this enough and act it out and think it through enough and risk SO MUCH to pull such a silly deception on us that is likely to be pointless anyhow? How does this deception make us any weaker or vulnerable to attack? What benefit would it serve them? Why not just do it the simple way, attack a warrior with 1 immortal before launching the main attack on Poly?

I know we all enjoy a good conspiracy theory but the idea that this is a big plot or sham is absolutely ridiculous.

--Togas

	06-07-2003 16:05									#7
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It's not a conspiracy theory in the sense that it's carefully plotted by both. I mentioned it was a CDG idea, not a GCA one.

GCA was rightly concerned about CDGs invasion, we realized that during the chat. Amongst ourselves we talked about the very real possibility of the northern cities falling, etc etc. GCA has also told us that they were not planning on splitting their army but sending it all against CFC. Thus, according to this, it is safe to say that their homeland is somewhat unprotected.

Now, what would you do if someone invades you when your army is elsewhere? You ask someone (us) to assist which they practically begged us to do a few days ago when this whole mess started. If suddenly you are offered peace, it is not irrational to say you might actually take it.

CDG then got what it wanted. Its golden age. Pissed GCA off but who cares? They're off in CFC-land getting their butt kicked. Road is free against Poly.

Again, it's an idea... I'm just saying CDG is wierd and we should be ready for ANYTHING. Especially if our beloved GhengisFarb is involved...

	06-07-2003 20:00									#8
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After reading Trip's chat with Octavian X, I think the most likely reason for the CDG-GCA war was so that CDG could start their GA. If they get a city, great. If not, then oh well. CFC might be compensating them somehow.

CDG needs their GA to stay in this game. I think everyone knows that.

	06-07-2003 21:57									#9
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They want to have a culture war against us on the border!

Consider:

1) the border agreement included that deal about the movement of the border due to cultural expansion.

2) They are reseaching Lit now (next??)

3) They are Scientific, so they get Libraries for only 40 Shields, whereas Temples would cost them 60 sheilds.

4) Libs put out 3 culture per turn, whereas Temples put out 2 per turn.

I think that their Plan is to get the Tech researched ASAP and build Libs on the border, to start the culture war against us. This is why they want the GA at this point in time.

Can Someone please check these asumptions in a sim?

E_T

	07-07-2003 00:24									#10
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Very likely, E_T.

The fly(ies) in their oinment will be that city 4 and 3 are going up soon. City 1 (on the bend of the river) is outside of danger. Once we have city 3 and 4 up, they will be very unlikely to flip, since they will most likely build workers to conquer their own jungle, thus they will have low pop. Furthermore, their forward cities will not be there long enough to build up much culture and will be moved after we capture them anyway.

	07-07-2003 02:47									#11
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One thing we are neglecting to notice in regards to this scheme (providing that CDG and GCA are in bed with each other):

How do we know they sent their whole army south?

The only verificationg we have is that Lucky himself told us there was a stack of 5 immortals. If GCA and CDG are in bed and scheming, this is a fact we can't ignore.

Lucky could possibly be LYING as well, meaning CDG did only send ONE immortal to start their golden age...

	07-07-2003 02:54									#12
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Doubtless we shall have at least some of these questions answered over the next few turns if/when we see GCA lose a city or two. That is I think the point we can be certain that CDG is genuinely attacking GCA. Would we trust anyone to take one of our cities, even in the cause of a huge scam? Would we even expect GCA to trust CDG, of all people?