12-07-2003 11:12									#1
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The powergraph this turn can be found here:

http://www.apolyton.com/forums/show...?threadid=91773

This explains why GCA noticed a big "spike" in our powergraph this turn and wondered if we were building up militarily. CDG has almost certainly noticed the same thing unless they're COMPLETE idiots.

My theory is that this has a lot less to do with us BUILDING units as it probably has to do with our neighbors LOSING units when combined with us building some units.

Regardless of the cause, however, it sure as hell LOOKS LIKE we're building one whale of an army up here and that means at least for the three civs on our continent who can see that powergraph, we're not exactly "flying under the radar" anymore

I don't know what will happen based upon this, but it's possible that it will give some of them pause... and giving them pause in their current wars is not something we want.

Any thoughts on just what you guys think they would do? I haven't been involved in the diplomacy of this game, so I'd rather hear from others who've dealt extensively with these guys on how you think they would react.

That's all... have a fun discussion

	12-07-2003 11:31									#2
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I couldn't be more happy with our continent's diplomacy.

Right now it's polarized -- GC & CFC hate each other. They insult each other, make brash statements, and got a war started when we bent over backwards to stop it. They are both somewhat arrogant (arrogance and pride are very big themes in the ISDG), and neither has ever had a successful diplomatic agreement. GCA & CFC diplomacy is a textbook example of botched relations.

CDG & GCA were very tight until CDG stabbed them in the back and invaded them. Think they'll forgive and forget? They blast each other, tease each other, and taunt each other during this war. Their biggest concern is not that Poly is growing but getting Poly to NOT SIDE AGAINST THEM in this war.

The mindsets of our enemies is so focused on hating each other, why would they ever suspiciously look at us and fear us because of some indicator on the F8 screen? Our score sucks. Our land sucks. We're pacifists. We have a lot of defensive UUs. We picked a builder civ and we're playing this game with a builder attitude.

How could they ever logically overcome BOTH their hatred for each other AND our soft and fluffy exterior to suddenly and seriously think we're dangerous? Who (other than us) is that paranoid and, if they were that paranoid, imagine all of the other little things that are going to freak them out.

Besides, paranoid players are horrible diplomats, horrible planners, and horrible tacticians. We win either way here.

People ultimately believe what they want to believe, and then make the facts support it. That is the way of human nature. If they want to believe that Poly is dangerous, they'll justify it however they can. But if they want to believe that we're not .... and they TRUELY want to believe that we're not, they'll focus on the facts that support that belief and make up excuses (it's just a bunch of Mercs...) to justify their conclusions about us.

We're a bunch of silly, friendly little jungle dwellers, stuck in the corner and secretly joked about when our backs are turned. The only thing that will shake them out of this false assumption will be when they witness undeniable evidence of our power.

And by then, it will be too late for any of them.

--Togas

	12-07-2003 11:40									#3
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Sounds good

I just have trouble wrapping my mind around anyone being that completely blind to the geopolitical situation here... this war is just begging for Apolyton to enter for its own advancement

I mean... if WE were them... it is my sincere hope that we WOULD be justifiably paranoid in such a situation, but then I also hope we would never have lead ourselves into such a ditch in the first place.

As I said, however, I don't know these people, so I was looking for the insight of someone such as yourself. If you think they're really this dumb, that's what I was looking for.

Can't help but feel that this makes them so dumb that we must be underestimating them, however. Perhaps I've simply developed too high of an expectation for human rationality in these situations

	12-07-2003 11:45									#4
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dumb isn't right. Egotistical is. PRIDE is the name of the game here. Every team's honor and reputation at stake. And when teams are so concerned about their rep they tend to make excuses for their actions, instead of properly evaluating them from an outside perspective. They tend to BELIEVE that their decisions were the right decisions, and they tend to follow the logical course those beliefs take them.

--Togas

	12-07-2003 11:52									#5
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I second everything Togas said, except to that we are paranoid, and we are therefore horrible at the game.

I will emphasise that we have meticulously cultivated an image as builders and peace makers. These other teams have people who are familiar with mechanics, they will know that number of cities, as well as their losses could account for the power spike (in fact it does, since we completed exactly 1 sword).

Another thing is that they are very focused on score, it would appear. This I can vouch for from play testing MP. Everyone looks at score, until they learn better and look at the other demographics.

I believe we are still largely under the radar. Certainly there is ample reason for them to feel secure and to continue the bashing on each other. They could not see far enough ahead to stay out of war, they will be very focused on winning that war. They will not look ahead to see their doom coming quite the way it will when the Barney and freinds facade is dropped to reveal the TRex.

	12-07-2003 11:53									#6
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While this is true, at some point, there's a devastating loss of morale when they realize their assumptions have been completely misplaced. When and if that ever takes place, they actually become significantly more dangerous if they're willing to be honest with themselves (I realize that's a stretch for some people... it's not pleasant in the slightest).

Then again, I guess if they were an introspective and potentially even self-doubting group, they wouldn't have dug this hole in the first place, would they?

And I agree... if you're right about the source of their blindness, it will almost certainly be too late when they come to terms with what they did wrong to be able to change the outcome.

Pride cometh before a fall...

	12-07-2003 11:55									#7
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As Lucky pointed out, our rise has definitely been "noticed." What's important is how the other teams respond.

While it's highly unlikely that the other teams will resolve their differences and look to us simply because of F8, I'm sure it will affect how they view us. Lucky has already acknowledged that we are a powerhouse, and he obviously doesn't want to rub us the wrong way. If we get TOO much stronger in relation to everyone else then everyone might just get scared of us and try to keep us away from them (nobody was anxious to pick a fight with GS after they demolished Vox the way they did ).

Our FAM definitely needs to keep them calm. Quiet + huge power rise != stable relations. We don't really need anyone scared of us until they see our army, though it is good to finally get the respect we deserve.

	12-07-2003 14:21									#8
	Increase Your PM Length

If I was GCA, I would be pointing that power jump out to CDG very soon. And would be playing it up like no tomorrow.

It would not hurt to catch up with CDG and just tell them we think the jump is because we have build
a couple of extra defensive Mercs, and that everyone else is losing units.

	12-07-2003 16:29									#9
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I agree with Hot Enamel. I think it should go something like this:

Hi ______ (whoever we are talking to with CDG now), you guys must of lost quiet a few units last turn, huh?

Why do you say that?

Because our power ranking with all the other teams jumped last turn. We are trying to figure out why, we did build a few mercs, but not enough to explain that much of a rise.....


Let them think we can't explain it anymore than they can, should diffuse it for a few turns at least anyways, though if we continue to rise (and we will) they'll naturally get more and more concerned.

Especially if they stop losing units and we continue rising :P

	12-07-2003 17:56									#10
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

There WILL be a point in time, were we will no longer be under the radar. Our Score will still be low, but our power will not be denigned. It will be because of having an Army that we are building to take on CDG. Yes, there will be a point when we can't really denign it any longer, but let's hope that we can keep the other asleep for a while longer.

Maybe we need to do a magician trick, i.e. give them some misdirection. I.e. talk about which one of the Missing Civs could possibly be a huge powerhouse. Say things that we figure that several of them are powerhouses, from everything that we have assertained. Get them thinking along other lanes. but it has to be done correctly, or they ill see the rabbit that the Magician is trying to keep up his sleave.

E_T

	12-07-2003 18:24									#11
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I think it might be wise to actually APPROACH CDG on this issue.

"hey uh, guys, we didn't do anything weird, but all of the sudden our power jumped way up? Are you okay? Is GCA heading north? Do we need to be worried? We're not exactly thrilled at the idea of war up here..."

Actually seeking them out and asking questions that suggest we're not ready or at least that we are thinking only of our safety might also dupe CDG into "dumb little jungle dweller" some more.

	12-07-2003 18:47									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Togas People ultimately believe what they want to believe, and then make the facts support it. That is the way of human nature. If they want to believe that Poly is dangerous, they'll justify it however they can. But if they want to believe that we're not .... and they TRUELY want to believe that we're not, they'll focus on the facts that support that belief and make up excuses (it's just a bunch of Mercs...) to justify their conclusions about us.

Togas you're my hero.

This is one of the most important issues concerning psychology, people don't normally act rationally the way they act and believe or look at things is affected by their emotions. If we can tap into the way of thinking of the other teams and use it to our advantage it would be worth a thousand shields.

But more importantly if we can reach a state where we can discuss things in a purely objective way, considering all possibilities and w/o any emotions clouding judgement then we'd be unstoppable.

	12-07-2003 19:32									#13
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Power is an amalgam of cities, gold, culture, advances, resources, military strength, nuclear weapons & wonders.

We cannot deny this - our military strength has grow relative to CDG, GCA and CFC. We are now strong vs all of them. It's due to both us building units and them losing units in the War.

But IMHO, the MOST IMPORTANT reason why we have growed Power significantly in the last 2 turns is us building 3 cities - Lux, Karina and Big Bend.

We now have 9 Cities. CDG has 6. GCA has 4 and CFC has about 4-5 too. So, we have more cities than them. And the reason why we have more cities, and we should let our neighbours know, is because we are peaceful builders !

Last edited by rush on 12-07-2003 at 19:39

	13-07-2003 07:36									#14
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I don't have much to add to this thread, but while I'd agree with the insightful point that the other teams will tend to rationalise their choices and judgements, it is unlikely that this will continue indefinitely, especially with our accelerating rise in power.

So, I think that Fried-Psitalon's idea of approaching CDG is great; the simple fact that we're communicating with them will reassure them. Even if they don't completely fall for our 'dumb and peaceable builders' mask, we'll still give them some pause and confusion.

It hardly needs to be said, but it is not enough to merely defeat CDG - we must defeat them as rapidly and bloodlessly (on our part) as possible, and part of accomplishing that is to misdirect them and cause them to deploy their strategic resources in a way that benefits us.

On another note, given that it is practically inevitable that we'll defeat CDG in the near future, what thoughts do the foreign ministers have of reassuring other teams? I suppose this all depends on how much we care about our reputation (are dead teams allowed to talk to live ones after they've been knocked out?).

	13-07-2003 08:34									#15
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I agree with F-P that contacting CDG to somewhat allay their fears would be good for us.

They have another 16 turns of a GA to go, lets let them waste it on GCA instead of worrying about us.

	13-07-2003 09:02									#16
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I believe we should only allay other teams' fears if they mention it themselves (they have already, so only if they mention it again). Going out of your way to explain why you're not that powerful despite your presence in the Power graph speaks volumes about our intentions.

This said, the psychological factor of seeing us grow in Power turn after turn will surely become important in the near-future. I agree with Fried-Psitalon that we might need to push our timeline up, in case other teams collectively start fearing us. We do not want CDG and CFC to get "in bed" to ensure Apolyton does not get too powerful (before it's too late).


Dominae

	13-07-2003 09:37									#17
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It's a no-win situation. If we tell CDG our military is growing, and they are losing units, CDG will begin to take notice of us. If we tell them we have more cities then them, they will also watch out more closely what we are doing.

So, instead of telling them directly, we should try & engage them via Chats. Ask them how they are doing in the War ? Praise them for getting into GA & churning out units to go after GCA ..... etc etc. If during the conversation, this question pops out, then we give them an answer.

But we should tell GCA, since they have asked.

	13-07-2003 09:37									#18
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GCA has approached us; CDG hasn't. Contacting CDG makes us keep our Peacekeeper-helping-the-world cover.

	13-07-2003 12:31									#19
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the Best action is to let tme come to us, either via impromtu spam chats with one of our team member or thorugh the other normal channels. Let them make the inquiry, but we must NOT say anything about it, other than that.

If we go and tell them that they shouldn't be alarmed, that we are just peaceful builders, it will set off several alarms. BUT, If we are prepaired for this possible inquiry, then our answer will be very beleavable. Something along the line as "well, building a few cities and Improvements does that kind of thing" and "we have notice that it looks like your taking a beating in this war with GCA. We hope that your giving as good as your getting from them, If not better " Things along that line would be more appropriate.

Let's just let them be like an alligator and we can roll them over and rub their belly to put them back to sleep...

E_T

	13-07-2003 18:29									#20
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I think this is a difference in psychological approaches coming to the fore; it is my belief that if we sit and say nothing, that's when we risk lots of alarms going off - the paranoid develop their frightened theories best in isolation, after all.

If instead we ask CDG what is going on, we might even convince them that we are concerned for their welfare and cause them to think we're considering an alliance, which might really help things. Hinting that we want CDG to be healthy and strong will play to what THEY want to hear- and if you tell someone what they WANT to hear - particularly when it's about an invasion and they just got a bloody nose and really hope you behave - they'll buy it twice as fast.

I think remaining silent would be an error- it allows them to think what they want, which is EXACTLY what WE do NOT want. Poll time, anyone? This also is something decided and done/not done sooner rather than later.

	13-07-2003 19:09									#21
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I agree with FP.
I could almost guarantee GCA will be sending emails to CDG saying...

"Look at the Power Graph!!! Look at the Power Graph !!! Have you got your backs covered ??? Apoltyon gunna get ya !!"

Certainly I would.

	13-07-2003 23:40									#22
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(I know I'm not very active, but just reading a few threads once now and then really catches you up, + being in the chat.)

We're not under the radar. We can't be. No one is THAT stupid. Even if they seem to be.

Of course, the best thing I can think of here is "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." No team could be so shortsighted as to commit suicide at the walls of Team X while Apolyton grows unchecked. It's just stupid. And trust me, being able to even _open_ Civilisation III makes you smarter than 90% of the population. ("S" instead of "Z" puts you at 99% )

In short, don't get too cocky.

	13-07-2003 23:59									#23
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Time for a poll, methinks!