16-07-2003 07:12									#1
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I'm suprised they announced it right now, RP still has the save (over the 24 hr period at this point) Perhaps RP had a picket a little further north than expected.

mwahahaha.

I like this line on RPthis thread

They promised military support to Lux and Vox and left both hanging high and dry

-Panzer giving us an opening?

Wow, this thread is incredible, they pulled out all the stops, esp the sheep picture.

	16-07-2003 07:54									#2
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Rule we should observe. Do not blame the victim.

	16-07-2003 08:02									#3
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I think the time it took RP to play is interesting. It seems to confirm this is a real war... or they are taking deceit to a whole new level.

	16-07-2003 08:19									#4
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Ah and now Togas has responded in this thread

Seems it is GoW from the East and ND from the West. Wasnt expecting ND to land units behind the front line, but sure whatever.

This is going to get ugly, RP isn't seeing its destruction yet, and throws out "Glory of Treachery, come Neu Demoliars". Can't wait to see the desperation in two or three turns.

	16-07-2003 08:50									#5
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I can't believe that arnelos just posted those screenshots...if they are legit.

So a small 4 force landing by nd with 2 units a turn behind.

on the east: a large stack of riders and a large stack of rp's led by a pike. I guess they are hoping that the mountain pike deters the riders, but why leave their army outside the city? inefficient, imho, a retreat is in order, riders can bypass anything. unless of course the stack is half mi, but still.... and a gow galley is sighted a bit to the ne.

interesting.

	16-07-2003 09:12									#6
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I disagree with just about everything I am seeing in the screenshots, both offense and defense. Jumped out at me right away.

On top of that, I am shocked that GS has not received more diplo contact at this crucial juncture.

I predict a mutual burn-out, and, given GoW's most recent overtures, I suggest we make a claim upon RP's SE lands.

	16-07-2003 09:12									#7
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Remember those shots were from before RP moved units. The Pike stack... doesn't make any sense. Maybe they want to move it onto the Mountain, but then GoW can just go around and force them to move onto the Jungle anyways. It would mean they can't fortify their units in Toledo for the attack which would give them better than even odds with rushed walls.

Just wish we could see how many Riders are in that stack.

	16-07-2003 10:26									#8
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Reported by Bigfree in chat to be 10 GoW riders in that stack.

	16-07-2003 10:37									#9
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Reported by Bigfree in chat to be 10 GoW riders in that stack.

does bf expect to survive that? Not looking too good for rp. bet he will feel pretty betrayed after we strike in a turn or two

	16-07-2003 13:11									#10
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I think RP can eat up 10 Riders. They'd lose a city or two most likely, but it's really not enough to do serious damage if RP has Cats (possible) to plink them down with and enough Pikes (probable) to hide behind while doing so. I think we can beat them to NM unless they just plan on passing Toledo completely.

Certainly GoW and ND haven't shown their hand yet. 10 Riders is nice, but hardly an invasion force. ND hasn't really shown much of anything yet.

What concerns me is GoW's 2 Galleys. We need a Galley N and S of Port Isolation, and probably want units to block every tile that could be landed on from Port Isolation in one turn sometime in the near future. If we build a couple cities, we could block off the first turn landing with 4 units. Maybe use 4 Workers building fortresses or something... plant then chop forest... mine/irrigate... just to make it look like we are there for a reason.

Then a few 2 movement units in Elipolis could supplement them wherever they are needed. It should be enough to handle any landing parties.

We might want to consider investigating Port Isolation once every so many turns. If they are building up a fleet there, it will really pay off. If not, it pays off because we can live with less defense until Navigation/Magnetism.

	16-07-2003 17:07									#11
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10 riders is indeed hardly an invasion force... I hope for them more is on the way. However, it could very well be that apart from a couple of slowmovers, this is what GoW thinks to deploy in their first wave, counting on their GA to build more riders later...
I would laugh about it, though.

5 gpt for lux from RP is another laugh. What are they going to do with 100 gold in 20 turns time? upgrade one horse? We spent about 3000 gold, and over 1200 shields during our war against Vox, 5 gpt wouldn't even be noticed!

DeepO

	16-07-2003 17:16									#12
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Ten riders might be enough to take one city (if they are lucky) as long as RP forces are also needed elsewhere. We don't have any info on the main ND attack yet - the screenshot in the public forum is apparently a landing force, although they only have two galleys there to pick them up, and one RP galley to deal with. So presumably the Ansar attack is elsewhere, and neither ND nor RP are inclined to post screenies of it.

Save is with Lego BTW, so our go is just round the corner.

	16-07-2003 18:24									#13
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10 Riders isn't NEARLY enough to take RP apart. 10 Riders plus a bunch of Ansars, however...

Let's get the show on the road, fellas! Load 'em up and ship 'em out! I'd like to hit RP in 2-3 turns.

-Arrian

	16-07-2003 19:00									#14
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Don't we want to give RP and the GoW/ND alliance a bit more time than that to wear each other down before we make our move? If we attack, RP starts diverting forces to deal with us instead of focusing on their current enemies, which makes the war more expensive for us and less expensive for GoW and ND.

	16-07-2003 19:18									#15
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Possibly. There is no harm, however, in being all ready to go so that we can react quickly to a GoW breakthrough (since GoW is the eastern end of the attack).

It may be that we hold off for 5 turns or even more, depending on the progress of the war.

When I typed "2-3 turns" I hadn't yet seen that GoW's attack stack is just 10 Riders.

-Arrian

	16-07-2003 20:58									#16
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Maybe it would be prudent to spy on Toledo to gauge how long they can hold. Granted, if their army is mysteriously outside the gates (?) then we won't be able to tell.

	16-07-2003 21:21									#17
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I suspect investigating Toledo would cost ~80 gold. That's a horse -> knight upgrade or rushed city walls.

I'd like the info too, don't get me wrong, but this invasion is gonna be expensive.

-Arrian

	16-07-2003 22:38									#18
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Lets get the popcorn- the show is starting.

Act I- 'How about this?', or 'probing the enemy's deteremination': a small stack of marines from the west lands in a daring operation, behind enemy lines. In the east, the GoW's armored division, equiped with the new turbo-diesel engines (or just really agile horses...) is rushing towards Toledo (most likely). Fighting is yet to commence.

However, the obvious feast of disinformation which is soon to enuse (or already has) needs to be answered: The GS's journalists, renowned for their objectivity and strict ethics, will have to get down there and give the world a true picture of the warfare.

Granted, they will be escorted by military forces- after all, this is a warzone...

	17-07-2003 10:17									#19
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Woah!

This thing stinks to high heaven now.

Where are the legions of ND? 10 Riders?

2 to 1 this is a GoW set up of ND.

5 to 1 that the war never gets going due to ND GoW distrust of each other and lack of commitment.

100 to 1 that a whole load of galleys show up near North Stormia in a turn or 2

1000 to 1. This thing is one big farce to see what we would do.

	17-07-2003 10:27									#20
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What if thats all the forces they have? GoW has a crap economy, has had their capital tied up for centuries and they have no infrastructure built. ND is better but they probably left a lot at home, just in case.

More likely a backstab of ND than us, I would say, if anything.

A telling fact is that GoW hasn't really invited us in yet. One would think that if they were as outmanned as it appears, they would practically beg us to enter, giving us some assurances against ND. But they are a bit equivocal it seems to me....

Note to self: MPPs with GoW are worthless.

	17-07-2003 10:30									#21
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Note to self: there is more BS flying right now than during the running of the Bulls in Pamplona, and it aint all Spanish.

	17-07-2003 11:06									#22
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It may just be underestimation on GoW's part. 10 Riders in SP and you can take out an AI the size of RP. It just doesn't work the same in MP. Think of some of the comments we've heard about Vox's Immortals (before they became mortal).

The other thing is trust between ND and GoW obviously. If one of them sells out on an invasion of RP, they are leaving themselves wide open. Especially true of GoW. Even without a backstab, one of them could tank and let the other take the full brunt of RP, and come out ahead once the NAP is done with.

Maybe they are both tanking...

I still think ND has something nasty (20+ Ansars with support) coming though, and GoW's Riders are more to 'calm' RP and draw them to the East.

	17-07-2003 11:26									#23
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Good thought. However, knowing these guys, and I know them a bit better being on the same team as some of them, I will beleive it when I see cities going rubble or switching hands with pop loss. Watch for the pop loss, they are not above gifting cities to make a war seem real. of course, they could have completed a worker/settler and then gifted as accepted...

Oh, these are lovely balls of yarn they weave for us to unravel.

	17-07-2003 11:58									#24
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It's hard to imagine GoW stripping their core completely bare and sending everything they have all the way across the continent to attack RP. It's not at all implausible that they have about 20 Riders and committed about half of them for the initial RP invasion.

The fact that the GoW/ND NAP ends when the RP invasion is over will probably discourage both sides from fully committing to the invasion. If that happens, we might be better off staying in builder mode and letting the Bobians wear each other down for the time being.

	17-07-2003 12:23									#25
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I agree. Get the military in order and ready to stike if one of two key cities fall. But nothing prior to that.

Zaragoza and Toledo. If one of them fall, we move.

	17-07-2003 12:28									#26
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Will GoW have the willpower to see this war to the end? If their riders break against toledo, do they seek way out, i.e. peace (not publicly declared) and then a build to strike ND?

I don't think they have the will to kill, regardless of their name. Once they have been whipped, they will quit and let ND handle the rest.


Why hasn't RP asked us to attack GoW? Isn't that an indication that something is going on? I know they made vague comments, but they could try a little harder, I would think, if they were desperate. I would.

	17-07-2003 13:38									#27
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RP isn't desperate, but as far as I dare to guess, this war is real. The thing is, they don't prepare too well... look at Vox: we knew there were about 20 immortals to be expected, but instead, 14 of them arrived, one turn later than strictly possible. They first declared war, then started to position their troops. It wouldn't surprise me if ND is doing the same.

Of course the possible back stab scenarios are what is keeping large portions of their armies at home, but exactly how much army can we expect? We're strong to everyone else, and are likely to be quite above the 125% mark. We have 19(?) MIs, some 15 horses/WCs and a bunch of pikes. One rider is as good as 2 horses, and about 1.5 MI... meaning that the 10 riders of GoW are nearly enough to be 80% of our force. At most, I would expect them to have an additional 5 riders, and a couple of MIs just in case. Maximally, they have 20 riders, a couple of them are still in transit (galleys), and a couple of them are defending the home front.

ND, if they have more MIs, will probably have a better army, but still, don't expect miracles. They have been in a cold war for a long time, but part of building a huge army is having a sufficient economy to support it. If Bob has one big flaw, it's the lack of workers.

DeepO

	17-07-2003 18:16									#28
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quote: Zaragoza and Toledo. If one of them fall, we move.

I agree. Not before... even though I too think this war is real, I'm not sure about jumping in until it looks like GoW & ND are committed. I don't want to land and then see GoW & ND pull back, and leave us holding the bag.

-Arrian

	17-07-2003 20:12									#29
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The chat tonight can be quite significant- we definitely shouldn't say anything about our plan to join in yet. The outcome of this chat could very well decide the policy we take- a silent landing in the dark of night- or a well publicized "we're going in" sort of thing. If ND and GoW pose too much resistance, I suggest we make it a fact and just land- we won't have a better chance to make a foothold.

	17-07-2003 20:23									#30
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Btw, if we do tell GoW and ND that we want to land, let's at least not tell them where. They might want to tip off RP in order to cause us to incur losses, and to be able to grab less RP land and have less power later, when we negotiate how to split the spoils of war.