21-07-2003 14:00									#1
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As the rest of Apolyton finds out what we're doing with RP, we're gonna find ourselves under fire. Let's face it: ND and GoW aren't exactly expecting it, and they won't exactly be showering us in compleaments.

We should plan a few public announcements to explain, partially, what we're doing and why (in vague detail, of course). My hope is that something, in comparison to our usual silence, will at least help fight the inevitable negative turn in public opinion.

Thoughts?

	21-07-2003 14:37									#2
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I was thinking that we should have a rather frank discussion with GoW. We aren't at war yet, but very likely will be by their choice. The points for the talk would be:

1. We are declining their invitation to join against RP.

2. We will be receiving certain RP cities which were threatened militarily. Those cities are in our custody now, and there may be other cities in the future if the need arises.

3. We understand the difficult position this puts GoW in, given the geography and RP's willingness to gift cities rather than lose them to GoW. We are planning for the worst (being attacked by GoW), and hoping for the best (being left alone).

--------------------

The main purpose would be to inform GoW of what they would find out anyways once they get the save. Also to give them a hazy enough picture that they don't know quite what to expect from us. I really wouldn't mind giving them a rough description of what our landing force will be though... something like, "we plan on being able to outnumber GoW forces in the theater by the next turn. Subsequent landing of forces will be regular and of a like number."

We want GoW to be hesitant, and have as much of a chance to back down as possible. GoW/ND have certainly underestimated our capability to land troops quickly, as made obvious by the "keep what you take" suggestion being made as a joke. By the time they can make it to NM... we would outnumber GoW by more than 2 to 1, not even counting the 7 Cats we are sending across. If GoW realizes they will quickly be outnumbered, hopefully they will be more likely to draw off. Right now they are probably thinking in 'their' terms... that we may be able to land 6-8 units in a few turns.

------------------

ND we could handle similarly, but we may actually want them to attack us now. If GoW doesn't attack us, we almost definitely want ND to.

	21-07-2003 16:17									#3
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No public announcements, please
Let's have a joint chat with GoW and ND, and simultaneously discuss the matters in a private channel with GoW, while making sure that they understand that we are not discussing things separately with ND as well, only with them. Inform them, give them special treatment and they'll feel more than welcome to back down, maybe even turn on ND.

	21-07-2003 16:26									#4
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I don't think we want GoW turn against ND.

What we really want is either, that they honor the NAP and this way we turn against ND and let RP handle the GoW (may be with little assistance by blocking them with gifted cities), or they attack us and it's a 2 vs 2, even though RP won't be able to contribute with much more than intel and a few occasional hits.

I support Aesons approach. Let's go public. A chat would look too much like an excuse (what for? Their insulting negotiation habit?) and won't really help us. And no, we should not give the GoW a special treatment.

	21-07-2003 16:33									#5
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Do we need to make it a 3-way chat? I'd prefer 2 2-way chats, or a chat with GoW and a PM to ND. Last 3-way didn't go well, but that is kind of normal with 3 different agendas

I'm not so sure GoW will backstab ND. They may try to keep us friendly, but turning on ND? Not so likely as RP makes it believe.

And no fears, Aeson. ND will most certainly attack us. Perhaps not this turn, and we should expect some surprises (e.g. invasion of Stormia), but they can't back down: they made it very clear they don't want us here, and we went against their wishes at the gravest extent possible.

Oh and indeed, no public announcements please, or only after we have spoken with most parties involved. People don't like it when they are being surprised in the public forum.

DeepO

	21-07-2003 18:18									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Shiber No public announcements, please

I agree. They've never, never, worked well for us in the past.

	21-07-2003 18:22									#7
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To keep silent hasn't worked either.

As I said, best would be Aesons approach. No public announcement. Talk to GoW, show our hand. Now. And talk to ND.

	21-07-2003 18:30									#8
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Ok, how about this: we announce it late, after all relevant parties have been informed via chat or PM or whatever means we choose, and we announce it through role-playing (in a charioteer-of-arashi kind of way).

	21-07-2003 18:46									#9
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Lego is already informed. And indeed, we should start contacting the others as well... if our policies are laid out (in the ambassadors report thread there is some discussion going as well), perhaps it be best if ambassadors start to contact their teams?

DeepO

	21-07-2003 22:11									#10
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I like Aeson's point. Public posts have burned us in the past.

	21-07-2003 22:37									#11
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quote: The main purpose would be to inform GoW of what they would find out anyways once they get the save. Also to give them a hazy enough picture that they don't know quite what to expect from us. I really wouldn't mind giving them a rough description of what our landing force will be though... something like, "we plan on being able to outnumber GoW forces in the theater by the next turn. Subsequent landing of forces will be regular and of a like number." We want GoW to be hesitant, and have as much of a chance to back down as possible. GoW/ND have certainly underestimated our capability to land troops quickly, as made obvious by the "keep what you take" suggestion being made as a joke. By the time they can make it to NM... we would outnumber GoW by more than 2 to 1, not even counting the 7 Cats we are sending across. If GoW realizes they will quickly be outnumbered, hopefully they will be more likely to draw off. Right now they are probably thinking in 'their' terms... that we may be able to land 6-8 units in a few turns.

I see what you're saying, but I see the potential for this to backfire. Giving intelligence data like that to a potential enemy is a tough sell for me. Not only that, but what if GoW's reaction to the info, instead of what you want (hesitation, possible withdrawl) is to charge pell-mell ahead, hoping to do as much damage as possible before we can get our forces in place? I'm not sure we want that.

-Arrian

	21-07-2003 22:46									#12
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Oh, and FYI - check the ND diplo thread. Shiber composed a note to ND, which I passed on to Borc.

-Arrian

	22-07-2003 02:11									#13
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Well, they aren't our enemies yet. They are faced with breaking a NAP or missing out on gaining anything with their Riders... so if we look like a tougher nut to crack than ND, they have a decision to make. Which NAP to break.

I trust GoW in one regard, to do what GoW thinks will help their team most. Right now they underestimate us badly, which can help us in the war (suprise!), but greatly increases the chance there is a war IMO. It's a gamble. We are giving intelligence on our numbers to GoW about 3-4 turns earlier than they would find out anyways.

Another thing about it though... if we are landing 15+ troops, and ND knows it... they will likely move slower, and try to keep their stack together. The biggest threat to RP is that Leon falls, and Pamplona can be attacked, which means they have to give up Toledo. If ND keeps it's stack together, that won't happen, or at least not as quickly, and we'll be able to have troops to help with.

And finally, it may be the bit of info GoW needs to 'pull back' and try a landing on Stormia. That gives us time, and is something we are preparing for anyways.

	22-07-2003 02:21									#14
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I'm still extremely uncomfortable with giving away our numbers to the (maybe) enemy.

I understand that it *could* result in a favorable response from them (backstab of ND, hestitation), but it could also result in things we don't want (ND & GoW both just going for broke - throwing all they have against RP ASAP, trying to break them before we can get significant forces in the right spots to help).

-Arrian

	22-07-2003 02:31									#15
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Giving GoW information seems to me like the high gamble (GoW might back off, but if they don't they'll have better chances against us when we finally arrive), as opposed to just keeping it a surprise, which seems closer to a sure thing (GoW will most likely declare war, but their forces will be unprepared and stretched when we strike). While I like the grand prize, the odds seem to favor the house...
There's a lot out there in the great field of diplomacy and foreign affairs that we don't know about. There are a dozen bad situations that we haven't even discussed that could result from us telling GoW about our invasion force. But landing and retaining the element of surprise depends on few, if any, unknown outside factors. I give my vote to secrecy.

	22-07-2003 02:41									#16
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For the record, I would have much preferred to have been able to land our troops prior to ND & GoW discovering our backing of RP. Unfortunately, we were not gonna get there in time, so we didn't have much choice...

Still, the enemy if forewarned. I hate it when that happens.

-Arrian

	22-07-2003 02:45									#17
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Having GoW stay out of it is optimal of course... and I don't see this forcing them to be our enemy. They aren't in position to do any more than expected before we gain numbers superiority, so I don't see the drawback in the E.

In the W, ND probably wouldn't change tactics, but if they did, it would most likely to be more cautious. That means taking fewer RP cities, as if we show up with 10 Knights... they lose their Ansars if they don't wait for their Pikes. Even though we only have 3 Knights, we could still take their Ansar's "blitzing" capability away very quickly (roughly halving their numbers at even odds if they outstrip their Pikes). RP could then deal with them.

	22-07-2003 02:45									#18
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The problem I have with giving away our numbers is that it will signify to GoW that their core is safe for the moment. If we're commiting that kind of numbers South, we won't have too much up North... For the moment I wouldn't tell them, to keep the threat to their territory more real.

But, in case we want to invade them up North, we should tell them. I think their slowmovers are roughly 4 turns away from Bilbao (counting the tiles in ND territory, given a RoP), which was also part of the reason they went for Bilbao instead of pushing ahead on Toledo. That also leaves them 2 turns from their core... it would be interesting to see if they turn back or not, no matter if the NAP gets violated

DeepO

	22-07-2003 02:52									#19
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I'd just like to point out the 'suprise' is going to come by GoW seeing our troops up in the Mountains after taking Toledo. Likely they'd see this in 3 turns. We couldn't attack anyways, as they'd have a cultural buffer, and our Knights are better served playing 6+ defense on a Mountain than attacking and surely dying.

We aren't going to gain any tactical advantage from it, because if GoW attacks (and ND does it's thing in the E), there really is only one way it can play out. They end up with their Riders in one spot, there is only one possible target in that timeframe (Bilbao and then Toledo, as Bilbao is 'on the way' there, and nothing else can be reached).

Even if they did split up, the results would be the same. We wouldn't have enough Knights to kill even half a stack, and still would need to play defensively until the second wave arrives.

	22-07-2003 02:53									#20
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I still wouldn't want to tell them... our production advantage, when the other teams start to think about it, is our most powerful weapon. Not only can we out-produce everybody else... we can make them fearful that we have built up even more than we have.

	22-07-2003 02:59									#21
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Looks like we have bought some time in the east. Looks to me that they are 3 turns from attacking toledo now.

What's the next move there? If z. falls or is severely weakened, I think RP should gift us toledo to get those units back to the western front.

How many turns until our units are sitting in toledo, or in the adjacent region?

	22-07-2003 03:04									#22
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GoW chatted with. No information relayed about numbers or timing.

If they tell the truth, then Toledo is saved and RP can *blip* those forces to Pamplona.

We arrive in Toledo with our main force the turn after GOW can get there, unfortunately. We can beat them into Toledo with knights. However, maybe they will mill about a little and will not move their stack of 9 right...

	22-07-2003 03:08									#23
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Worst case:

GoW 1: All riders unite at Bilbao 4 7 7

GS 1: Landing near NM.

GoW 2: Rider stack moves to Toledo 8 9

GS 2: Infantry move to Toledo 2 3. Knights could occupy Toledo.

GoW 3: ???

	22-07-2003 03:11									#24
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Hmmm... perhaps a Galley threat somewhere in the north would slow them down by one turn.

	22-07-2003 03:11									#25
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Z won't fall this turn at least, RP has more units in there than there are Ansars to threaten it (at least in the initial stack).

Leon will fall if ND hits it, and that would give ND access to hit Pamplona. In that case, RP would have to give up Toledo to get enough troops into Pamplona to guarantee it doesn't fall. We have to force this if it happens, as our Cats need the protection.

Us having Toledo means that GoW (who says they'll respect the NAP) is roughly 8 turns out of the picture. It should be very well timed for RP to deal with.

Us hitting ND being 'serious'... wonder if they have a MPP? If they do, they'd be forced to choose which deal to honor. Given what GoW said (which we can't pass along, but can hint at "GoW said they don't plan on going to war with us"), convincing RP to give us Toledo should be a easier.

	22-07-2003 03:13									#26
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Great Job, NYE. I can't believe they didn't attack.

Hmm. so what do we do when they threaten another RP town, say pamplona, do we block them? Do we move west to take the brunt of the ND assault so RP can handle the riders? Luckily that is five? or six? or even more turns down the road.

	22-07-2003 03:14									#27
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ND will either go for Vigo or Zaragoza, depending on if they want to keep their stack defended or not. I hope they go for Zara... otherwise our efforts will amount to not so much.

GoW is going for Toledo, but if I count right, they have to wait one more turn to let their slowmovers catch up. If there are slowmovers coming, of course, which is far from certain.

If they don't wait, RP can either gift Toledo to us next turn (meaning we'll lose it in case GoW breaks our NAP anyway), or they can defend it with all their might, and have a good chance of holding it. If they wait, we would be best to take control of Toledo, put our complete stack in there, and see what happens. RP is going to need to accept that they will temporaryly give most of their important cities to us for their own protection...

BTW, if ND is attacking Leon, that will mean they have crossed our borders, would that be an implicit declaration of war?

DeepO

	22-07-2003 03:17									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson Us having Toledo means that GoW (who says they'll respect the NAP) is roughly 8 turns out of the picture. It should be very well timed for RP to deal with. Us hitting ND being 'serious'... wonder if they have a MPP? If they do, they'd be forced to choose which deal to honor. Given what GoW said (which we can't pass along, but can hint at "GoW said they don't plan on going to war with us"), convincing RP to give us Toledo should be a easier.

8 turns. wow. great news. Looks like GoW is becoming Vox: redux.

Can we ask GoW point blank if they have an MPP with ND? They probably have something more than that, it just only goes to RP actions, not GS. They obviously know that they are going to have to decide which to favor, but I think it best to wait to force the issue until we have our army over there.

	22-07-2003 03:18									#29
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a GoW-ND MPP? Now that would make sense... however us attacking ND in RP's territory doesn't fit the normal trigger for a MPP

DeepO

	22-07-2003 03:18									#30
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sigh... and another dp. I wonder why these happen so frequently to me the last few days.

Last edited by DeepO on 22-07-2003 at 03:34