30-07-2003 10:35									#1
	RP, 30AD Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Stay tuned. Shots coming sometime.

To be reported:

Bilbao is rubble. We are at war with GoW I would assume. Not a whisper in the forum. Let's keep it that way.

ND launched at Zaragoza. RP holds the city still, with wounded MI and 3 healthy Horse. There are 6 ND ansars adjacent, with one pike cover.

Leon is empty.

	30-07-2003 10:38									#2
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Chat with Arnelos.

quote: Session Start: Tue Jul 29 22:31:00 2003 Session Ident: Arnelos [22:31] *nye* allo [22:31] *Arnelos* hello [22:31] *nye* you have the save? [22:31] *Arnelos* I don't believe so, do we? [22:31] *nye* panzer posted that it has been sent on [22:31] *Arnelos* ok, lemme check [22:32] *Arnelos* nope [22:33] *Arnelos* which probably just means Togas hasn't seen it yet [22:33] *nye* hehe [22:33] *Arnelos* to my knowledge, Togas is currently the only one getting them from GoW [22:33] *Arnelos* since Aidun is out of town [22:33] *Arnelos* don't know if dejon is still on there, don't think so [22:34] *nye* well. we would like to know very much the status of zaragoza [22:34] *Arnelos* ah [22:34] *nye* it sounds as if they bashed up on it [22:34] *Arnelos* so would we, actually [22:34] *Arnelos* it does? [22:34] *Arnelos* where did you hear this? [22:34] *nye* there are not too many things that darekills comments could apply to [22:34] *Arnelos* hmm... I should go look [22:35] *Arnelos* where is this? [22:35] *nye* nd embassy thread. [22:35] *nye* 'Well, if that was a trap I'd like to see some more of this. Four Pikes and three Med.Infs are one wonderfull breakfast' [22:35] *Arnelos* hmm... somehow I missed that [22:36] *nye* it was bottom of a page at 25 per page [22:36] *nye* we think that gow will have attacked us [22:36] *Arnelos* I just found it [22:36] *Arnelos* yeah, it was burried [22:37] *Arnelos* you think GoW attacked you? [22:37] *nye* yeah [22:37] *Arnelos* hmm [22:37] *Arnelos* they couldn't have attacked Toledo yet, no? [22:37] *Arnelos* only Bilbao [22:37] *nye* the threats have been flying fast and furious. they are seriously out of joint over bilbao and toledo [22:37] *Arnelos* that figures [22:37] *nye* only bilbaso [22:38] *nye* they could not get at toledo this turn [22:38] *Arnelos* they have been seriously out of joint every time something didn't go their way the whole game... happens to be the root cause of why we're their chosen target [22:38] *nye* we understand that much better now [22:38] *Arnelos* you wanna know what the original dispute was over? [22:38] *nye* boy! do we [22:38] *nye* sure [22:39] *Arnelos* GoW sent a warrior to skirt all around our cultural territory in the early game. At one point I think they actually entered our cultural territory, but I don't recall exactly. [22:40] *Arnelos* Togas was pissed off that GoW was scouting so close and told GoW that he wouldn't trade them Writing (I think) unless they packed their bags and went back north [22:40] *Arnelos* Togas and GhengisFarb proceeded to get amazingly pissed at each other [22:40] *Arnelos* flames were sent back and forth, and not just by those two [22:41] *nye* i have heard legends of that [22:41] *Arnelos* GhengisFarb eventually asked if we were going to declare war [22:41] *Arnelos* to which the answer was an obvious no [22:41] *nye* heh [22:42] *Arnelos* but anyhow... Togas finally realized (because Ninot and I were harping on him) that he was not helping the situation... we needed to calm down and approach GoW rationallly [22:42] *Arnelos* Unortho apparently tried the same thing on their end [22:42] *Arnelos* with significantly less success [22:42] *Arnelos* relations have had a touch of bitterness ever sense [22:42] *nye* i can empathise with uno [22:43] *nye* we bought our spot in the book of grudges by turning a situation of their own making to our own advatage [22:43] *Arnelos* yup, Vox war [22:43] *nye* with your offer. how could we refuse? [22:43] *nye* they are po'ed about vox war still? [22:43] *Arnelos* oh, you mean RP war [22:44] *nye* they landed horse adjacent to an empty city and are shocked that we killed them? [22:44] *Arnelos* GoW really doesn't like you guys, either... and that has very little to do with RP Team [22:44] *nye* just between you and i, gs does not feel as if gow has ever seen an agreement they could not break. [22:45] *Arnelos* from what I've heard from MZ (and referenced by Beta concerning GoW) they feel GS is "overly arrogant" and they really don't want to see you guys WIN the game because they don't want to suffer the inevitable gloating they think they'll have to suffer [22:45] *nye* ahh. well, i can see their pov. not just them. [22:45] *nye* however, none of gs would take it that extremely, i don;t think [22:46] *Arnelos* as for RP Team, we are seen as the (and I quote) "weasels" that while we have retained technical honor in not breaking any agreements, have designed such agreements so that we can pursue our interests without technically breaking them [22:46] *Arnelos* but, of course, a lot of that is colored by the earlier example I gave you [22:47] *nye* i think i am seeing a case of the complainers projecting [22:47] *Arnelos* after that incident with the stupid warrior, GoW's lense was forever colored [22:47] *nye* i see [22:47] *nye* do you know they have not honoured a single agreement with gs? [22:47] *nye* they have broken every single one [22:48] *Arnelos* wow [22:48] *nye* we pray for war now, so that we can end the bullshit and simply kill them [22:48] *Arnelos* like Feudalism ;p [22:48] *nye* yes [22:48] *nye* we just counted that up [22:48] *nye* found that they broke that too [22:48] *Arnelos* yeah, they really screwed you guys over on Feudalism... but no-one else particiularly minded, even us from what I've heard [22:48] *nye* no doubt [22:49] *nye* but the screwing happened while an nda was in force [22:49] *nye* sorry. they did trade us chivalry [22:49] *nye* after i threatened their honour by reciting the litany of previous broken deals [22:50] *nye* at that time, they wanted to placate us, and saw a great disadvantage in breaking one more deal [22:50] *Arnelos* (chuckle) [22:51] *nye* and now, the nap is but a scrap of paper [22:51] *Arnelos* ok... Togas just sent me the save [22:51] *nye* cool [22:51] *Arnelos* We still hold Zaragosa, but it's down a number of units [22:51] *Arnelos* ND has 6 Ansars and 1 Pike sitting 1 tile from Zaragosa [22:51] *nye* **** [22:51] *Arnelos* problem... all we have in Zaragosa are a few MI and horsemen [22:51] *nye* what is in zara? [22:51] *Arnelos* and the cat [22:51] *Arnelos* We still hold the city itself [22:52] *Arnelos* lemme pull up the save, then I can see what's damaged [22:52] *nye* what sort of sahpe are the riders? [22:53] *nye* *ansars [22:53] *Arnelos* I know what you mean... just dl'd the save... loading [22:55] *nye* well. this sounds... extreme [22:55] *Arnelos* 4Bilbao rubbled [22:55] *nye* well, we are at war [22:55] *nye* with both [22:57] *nye* are all the ansars wounded? [22:57] *Arnelos* some are [22:58] *Arnelos* in fact, all but 1 are wounded [22:58] *nye* cool. that gives you options [22:58] *Arnelos* 1 4/4, 3 3/4's, 2 2/4's, 1 1/5 [22:58] *nye* suggest you take you time on save [22:58] *Arnelos* yeah [22:58] *Arnelos* here's what we have... [22:58] *Arnelos* 3 healthy 4/4 horsemen [22:59] *Arnelos* 1/4 MI, 2/5 MI, 3/4 MI [22:59] *Arnelos* 1 Cat [22:59] *Arnelos* that's it in Zaragosa [22:59] *nye* where is their stack? [22:59] *Arnelos* they have 1 pike stacked with their Ansars [22:59] *Arnelos* their stack is one to "1" of Zaragosa [23:00] *nye* that figures [23:00] *nye* well. you must discuss this among yourselves. [23:01] *Arnelos* they emptied Leon [23:01] *nye* enpty? [23:01] *Arnelos* yup [23:01] *nye* wow [23:02] *nye* this is scorched earth now [23:02] *nye* what is at z 4? [23:02] *Arnelos* Leon is still standing, just no troops [23:02] *Arnelos* Zaragosa #4 is a scout, 4 from Zaragosa is nothing [23:03] *Arnelos* wait a moment... [23:03] *nye* they complete a road on their next turn, sa they can get troops from z4 to leon. [23:03] *Arnelos* the road has been pillaged, but I think we did that [23:03] *nye* they have no workers there. w of z? [23:04] *Arnelos* they have 2 captured workers at 4, 1 of Z [23:04] *Arnelos* no roads at either 4 of Z or 4,1 of Z [23:04] *nye* damn. sorry. got the tiles wrong [23:04] *nye* it is 4 1 that is important [23:05] *nye* what is there? [23:06] *Arnelos* um... [23:06] *Arnelos* 2 pikes, 2 MI, 2 Ansar [23:06] *Arnelos* and 2 captured workers [23:06] *nye* full ansars? [23:07] *Arnelos* lemme check [23:07] *Arnelos* both 1/3 [23:07] *Arnelos* I mean 1/4 [23:07] *nye* wonded? that is good [23:08] *Arnelos* but covered by 2 pikes and 2 MI, all healthy [23:08] *nye* well. you have a choice [23:08] *nye* what bebefit would you gain by turning leo to ashes? [23:08] *Arnelos* yeah, that's a question [23:08] *Arnelos* they lose cultural border area, but they could just regain it by taking Zaragosa [23:09] *nye* how much damage can you do to their offensive ability by attacking the stack at z 1? [23:09] *Arnelos* depends on luck [23:09] *nye* yes [23:09] *Arnelos* we have 3 damaged MI and 3 healthy horse [23:09] *nye* when does togas intend to play the turn? [23:09] *Arnelos* they have 1 healthy pike and a bunch of wounded Ansar [23:09] *Arnelos* I don't know... lemme check/ask [23:11] *Arnelos* Togas says tomorrow night [23:11] *Arnelos* *Togas* probably @7-9pm PST [23:11] *Arnelos* got that? [23:13] *nye* yes [23:13] *Arnelos* MilOps will probably get set up before that [23:13] *nye* ok [23:13] *Arnelos* but who knows [23:14] *Arnelos* that's just me guessing [23:14] *nye* i am trying to contact togas [23:14] *Arnelos* ok [23:15] *nye* would reccomend togas not post shots on his website [23:19] *Arnelos* we already covered that issue [23:19] *Arnelos* he won't [23:19] *Arnelos* there's been a discussion on where to post them [23:19] *Arnelos* not sure if it's been resolved where to put them now [23:20] *nye* for us, could email them [23:20] *nye* to me [23:20] *nye* for you, give them a werid name and upload on Poly? [23:21] *Arnelos* hmm... [23:21] *nye* or is that not safe? [23:21] *Arnelos* I'd think we'd rather not [23:21] *nye* ok [23:21] *nye* upload? [23:21] *Arnelos* just find someone else to host them [23:21] *Arnelos* I'd think he can just e-mail the suckers to someone else for hosting [23:21] *nye* yeah, with strange names. never can be linked [23:22] *Arnelos* I'm thinking that people won't even know to LOOK at another person's site... someone who doesn't also post in the public forum [23:22] *Arnelos* meaning pictures in the public forum [23:22] *Arnelos* like dejon or BigFree or whatever [23:23] *nye* who knows who may know of their web sites? [23:23] *Arnelos* chances are pretty low [23:23] *nye* start a new one, with some winged out name. [23:23] *Arnelos* a lot of people have webspace in odd places [23:23] *nye* ok [23:23] *Arnelos* university accounts are ideal because they'll use people's real names rather than online aliases [23:24] *Arnelos* and the webspace is free [23:24] *Arnelos* we probably have a few students with free webspace that don't even realize they have it [23:24] *nye* cool [23:24] *Arnelos* that would be my guess anyhow [23:24] *nye* i would bet a few searches have been run on 'notyoueither' [23:25] *Arnelos* if not, yeah... just make a new account with a wacky alias [23:25] *Arnelos* funny thing about that... I did a search on my alias the other day... the ONLY thing that popped up of significance were public threads on poly, mostly ancient threads from the SPDG [23:29] *Arnelos* hmm... my computer is craping out on me here... gotta reboot [23:29] *Arnelos* might just take this an excuse to take off for the night Session Close: Tue Jul 29 23:30:11 2003

I blew it and mentioned the NAP. w00t! I broke an agreement with the Glory of BrokenDeals.

	30-07-2003 10:48									#3
	Increase Your PM Length

BTW. Search Google on notyoueither. it leads straight to Alva's website. Glad we got concerned about it.

Is Poly safe?

	30-07-2003 14:32									#4
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Is Poly safe?

The private forums certainly are immune from search engines.

A google image search for the filenames of some pics I uploaded for the PTWDG2 also turned up nothing.

I think we're safe.

	30-07-2003 16:46									#5
	Put an end to popups!

The problem I see so far is that either RP use those horses, and can't turn them into knights next turn, or they don't use the knights, and can take their horses out. If I'm reading the stack correctly, there is a way around it, by having the horses attack the riders (losing 1 MP), then fortifying them immediately afterwards. If they end by hitting the spacebar, or if they try to move them out to another city (or if they attack farther away), they will not be able to get upgraded using the trick I mentioned earlier, meaning RP won't have knights next turn, but will have to wait one turn longer.

If Zaragosa can't be held, the horses should retreat to Pamplona, with 1/3 MP remaining. That way, they can do some damage next turn.

DeepO

	30-07-2003 17:01									#6
	Increase Your PM Length

And RP should make sure that they have enough cash for upgrades. If not, we'll need to be generous, because upgrading an RP knight next turn is more cost-effective than anything else we could use our money for at the moment, I think.

	30-07-2003 17:14									#7
	Remove this text

RP is in a serious mess, don't they? ND seems determined to crush them once and for all... They will take a while, but RP will be nothing but a ghost-nation if P and Z fall...

It also looks like we are facing fencing styled warfare, with GoW having a speed edge, and also insufficient will to fight it out. So how are we going to help RP out, while still maintaining our interests?

GoW is clearly not a threat to RP now, so should we sent forces due west to save RP's ass, or do we concentrate on GoW's stack, and pray that RP manages to hold at least P?

What I don't like about this, is that we're completely on the defense, hopefuly we won't need to pull a Dunkirk manuever, our beachead is quite safe...

	30-07-2003 17:50									#8
	Inflate your Upload Space

9 surviving Ansars, which we can pretty much assume is all they have right now in the area, otherwise they would have finished off the Med Inf and Horses they could get to. Of the Ansars we've seen, that would leave 2 dead, though I'd guess they lost a couple more in the attack that we haven't accounted for.

The Ansars:

1 4/4
3 3/4's
2 2/4's
2 1/4's (the retreats, Z4)
1 1/5

RP has:

3 4/4 horsemen
1 1/4 MI
1 2/5 MI
1 3/4 MI
1 Cat

If the cat hits the Pike, the 3/4 MI should be able to take it. Then the Horses would have shots at Ansars (4/4, 3/4, 3/4). The 2/5 MI wouldn't have good odds against a 3/4 Ansar. If RP gets lucky, it could be huge, if not, they are in really bad shape in Z... but they are anyways.

RP can attack ND's stack, try to kill a couple Ansars, then sell off everything in Z and gift it to us. Z will fall regardless now. Saves whatever troops they don't lose in the attack. They can then take most of their units out of P leaving a couple Pikes. ND's Ansars aren't in shape to counterattack right now so RP can put units out in the open.

I think we should skimp as much as possible in Toledo and send some Knights W right now. What's the stack calculator say if we have 8, 7, 6, and 5 Knights in Toledo? We need enough so that Toledo is safe within reason, and RP needs as much 2 movement help in the W as they can get.

------------------

I think they should try the Cat shot. Try the 3/4 MI, and if they beat that Pike, take shots with Horses. It will be 45%, 61%, 61%... which are pretty good odds for the 30:60 shield ratios involved, though RP really needs some Knights soon. The 2/5 MI would then have a shot at a 3/4 Ansar, about 49% they win, 44% they lose, and the rest is retreat.

Then gift Z to us after selling everything, getting the survivors to P.

	30-07-2003 18:00									#9
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

Ugly. So Z is toast, eh?

I agree with Aeson that RP should try and kill the pikeman so they can try & kill some Ansars.

-Arrian

	30-07-2003 18:11									#10
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

I'm not sure that if any of those horses get teleported, they keep their remaining MPs and can be upgraded before the turn starts... if they can upgrade, their knights will be shining new, and not hurt anymore. One thing that will always work is that if they have one horse with MP remaining, they can use that one to "upgrade all"... but they don't have anymore horse, right? and it has to be in a barracks city...

Otherwise I totally agree with the plan Aeson gives... it's about the only thing we can do. Once we settle the harbor city, we can give NM back, right? RP is going to need it...

DeepO

	30-07-2003 18:12									#11
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

BTW, if RP are still in production phase, is there any possibility that they can rush a horse this turn, so it will be ready to be upgraded to a knight next turn?

DeepO

	30-07-2003 18:12									#12
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I like Aeson's plan
Attack from Zaragoza (cats, then horses, then MIs), then sell everything, then gift it to us and I assume that when our turn arrives, we disband it.

	30-07-2003 18:13									#13
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

We could send them Horses and Iron... and cash.. to upgrade. P has a Barracks. They may not have any Horses to upgrade if things go badly though.

	30-07-2003 18:16									#14
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Perhaps RP can move a horse from elsewhere into Pamplona...

	30-07-2003 18:17									#15
	Remove this text

They can switch to Horsemen, think they are past their production phase, but it wouldn't matter. P is the only place they have now which could build a Vet Horseman.

	30-07-2003 18:19									#16
	Increase Your PM Length

Any chance any of our knights can get over there and hit Ansars on our turn?

Can we rush a pikeman in Toledo in our production phase?

RP is in deep, deep ****. And frankly so are we. But we've been there before.

-Arrian

	30-07-2003 18:37									#17
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

Ah... we're just where we want to be.

Remember before this all broke out we were looking at fighting RP then ND and GoW!

I think our cash is better used to help RP upgrade any surviving Horsemen, or upgrade some of our WC's up N. We should land by Port Isolation in the next few turns if that Hill is still open, see if GoW is prepared for any action up N.

	30-07-2003 18:40									#18
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

Our Knights from Toledo (3) could make it to P7, which would allow us to hit Z or L next turn. Knights from port NM would only be able to make it to Z9, which would allow us to hit L, but not Z.

	30-07-2003 18:57									#19
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Aeson- You took the words right out of my mouth...

I wasn't thrilled about helping RP at all, and the way things are shaping up means they'll be totally dependant upon us when this is all over, or they that will die, and we'll still be on Bob, probably. We could let RP and ND duke it out, with us providing assistance where we could do the most damage, and loose a few units as possible. Striking at GoW's core (or even border towns) could get them completely out of the picture- I'd just love to see some of those Riders riding home, while we make a short work of the others...

What worries me is how we deal with ND? a token force landing won't work, as they are in their GA, and could probably muster some defense even from scratch in 2-3 turns... I guess we'll have to wait until we've waned GoW before we could start to work on that.

What if we land on GoW with some Pikes and WCs? They have almost no mountain tiles, and no jungles, which makes our WC as fast as manuverable as knights- right now they are nothing more than coast blockers- I bet they could do some good, if only just to shake GoW up a bit (these border towns around PortOI are close to useless for them, but the psychological effects are not to be dismissed- that would be a proof of GS's long arm ).

	30-07-2003 20:10									#20
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Originally posted by Aeson I think we should skimp as much as possible in Toledo and send some Knights W right now. What's the stack calculator say if we have 8, 7, 6, and 5 Knights in Toledo? We need enough so that Toledo is safe within reason, and RP needs as much 2 movement help in the W as they can get.

Don't know if the knights not in Toledo would come from the ones there (fortified when attacked) or the ones not there (unfortified when GoW attacks), so I've done tests for both scenarios.

If the four fortified knights are always in Toledo, then we have, for 5-8 knights in town: (columns are no. of knights, average GoW losses, average GS losses, % chance of losing town in first attack)
8: 6.26 6.13 0.00%
7: 6.06 6.24 0.00%
6: 5.78 6.38 0.05%
5: 5.44 6.56 0.50%

for fortified knights being the first ones to leave, we get:
8: 6.14 6.25 0.00%
7: 5.79 6.48 0.00%
6: 5.22 6.74 0.08%
5: 4.85 6.94 0.80%

For comparison, with all 10 knights in Toledo, GoW loses 6.50, we lose 5.95. Taking out 5 knights to go to Zaragoza saves GoW 1 more rider, and costs us 1 more knight, pike or MI.


So there is no real risk of losing the town whatever happens. I'll try and get some numbers on the number of times an MI has to defend in each scenario, which is probably a better test of whether we 'succeed' or 'fail'

	30-07-2003 20:40									#21
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

For MI involvement, I'm listing no. of knights left in Toledo (as before), average no. of times a MI will have to defend, and the probability that we get away with no MI having to defend. First set is for keeping the fortified knights in Toledo.

8: 0.103 90.2%
7: 0.375 68.7%
6: 0.901 40.6%
5: 1.604 20.1%

Second set is for preferentially moving fortified knights out of Toledo:

8: 0.119 88.8%
7: 0.449 63.8%
6: 1.086 33.8%
5: 1.850 15.7%

So if we only leave 5 knights in Toledo, the odds are that we end up with 1 uninjured MI, 2 dead MI, 4 dead knights, 1 dead pike, 3 injured pikes and 1 injured knight. And 9 injured riders outside the gates. It would only take a small swing of bad luck to put us in a very bad position with those units. At the other end of the list, 8 knights looks fairly safe - we stand to lose roughly the same number of units as GoW, but some of ours will be pikes. It is unlikely (though not very unlikely) that they get as far as attacking MI. Personally, I don't think I'd be happy with fewer than 8 knights left in Toledo. That way, with a barracks to heal, they'll always be facing an uphill struggle in round 2, even if they have pretty good luck in round one. Less than 8, and good luck starts to tilt the battle too much in their favour for my tastes - except that we have reinforcements to arrive the next turn, but I can't remember what they are.

	30-07-2003 22:57									#22
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Thanks for the comparison vulture. I guess we should probably put everything we can into dealing with GoW's initial stack first.

	30-07-2003 23:08									#23
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

When did Togas say he was going to play the turn?
And when will the fun at #MilOps begin?

	30-07-2003 23:44									#25
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They will be playing the turn between 5 and 7pm EST. I will not be able to be around.

	30-07-2003 23:54									#26
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Are you sure about 5-7 Eastern Time? In the chat, Arnelos said probably @7-9pm Pacific Time, which would be 10-12 Eastern.

	31-07-2003 03:01									#27
	Got spare money?

One request: ask if RP wants to set its research to Chivalry (0%). Further, I'm not sure if we can give gold to RP, I'm not sure if it gets added to the treasury of RP before they get the tech, and thus can upgrade...

DeepO

	31-07-2003 03:30									#28
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

By the way...
When we're holding a town temporarily, we are building something while we are keeping it, but if we don't finish it by the time that we gift the city back, the shields are discarded, right?
Well, why not switch all temporary towns (such as NM) to building Wealth? It won't give us much, but it's better than nothing.

	31-07-2003 04:51									#29
	Put an end to popups!

Am I the only one who feels like attacking with units and then gifting a city to teleport them to safety the same turn is taking the gift-teleport trick/exploit a bit too far? That's not just taking advantage of it for movement purposes as has been done before in the Voxodus. It's a way to defy the normal mechanics through which if you attack, you run the risk of being counterattacked in turn. Granted, the loss of territory involved limits the use of the exploit to a certain extent, but it still gives the defender a major, unnatural advantage.

	31-07-2003 04:54									#30
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I agree with Nathan.

We have been very slick in our mechanics thus far, but this is a bit much for me.

It's time to win this part of the game, at least, straight out.