19-08-2003 02:03									#1
	California election becomes IWS contest? Remove this text

On the drive home today, I was thinking about who I was going to vote for in the upcoming recall election in California. I came to realize I don't want Arnold to win out of the 150 or so candidates and I can't vote for just anyone, cause then my vote wouldn't be very useful to beating Arnold.

So then my question became, which candidate is going to get the most support that isn't Arnold, i.e. which candidate is going to become the most popular answer to the question: Who do you want for the California governor that isn't Arnold? In other words, I might use the IWS strategy to determine my vote.

I've heard Bustamante was beating Arnold in the polls, so I might go with him. Does anyone know any other candidates who are popular?

	19-08-2003 02:05									#2
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Arnold! Arnold!

	19-08-2003 02:07									#3
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What's wrong with Arnold?

	19-08-2003 02:09									#4
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He's an idiot.

	19-08-2003 02:11									#5
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What's wrong with Arnold?

Has yet to open his mouth on an agenda. If you are a liberal, why vote for him with Bustamante, or the greens and Arianna in the race? And if you are a right-winger, you got Simon or McClintock.

As for other candidates:

You got Arianna Huffington running cooperatively with the greens

You got McClintock, State Senator, very conservative
Simon of course.
Oberoth, or Uberroth, or whatever: ex-baseball commisioner.

Or you can vote for porn stars and Gary Coleman.

	19-08-2003 02:12									#6
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Arianna!!

	19-08-2003 02:15									#7
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quote: Originally posted by GePap And if you are a right-winger, you got Simon or McClintock.

If you are a right winger why wouldn't you want someone that has a chance to actually win.

	19-08-2003 02:19									#8
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Cause Arnold is not a right-win ger. Waht kind of victory is it to elect a guy who supports abortion, gun control, has an economic advisor who called for higher property taxes, married to a Kennedy, helped push state spending up previously, so forth and so on?

That is no victory, even if the guy calls himself a republican. Why elect a quisling to the cause?

Besides, polls say McClintock and Simon each have about 7-9%. That's 14 to 18% total vote for the rightwingers. Arnold is at 22%, but 35% of his supporters have saiud they might change their minds. He is not by any means the runaway leader anymore, now that it isn;t Ahnolod 24-7.

	19-08-2003 02:19									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Arianna!!

Angelyne!!

	19-08-2003 02:20									#10
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc If you are a right winger why wouldn't you want someone that has a chance to actually win.

Exactly, it's an IWS contest. You know many republicans are going to vote Arnold, cause the others have less of a chance of winning...

	19-08-2003 02:22									#11
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Why elect a quisling to the cause?

Because that's the best you're going to get and demanding ideaological purity is what got the California Republican Party in the state it is in today.

	19-08-2003 02:23									#12
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Angelyne!!

Nah, the porn star is better looking (though neither will win any beauty contests).

quote: Exactly, it's an IWS contest. You know many republicans are going to vote Arnold, cause the others have less of a chance of winning.

You mean the same republicans that chose Simon as their candidate and not Riordan, who would have probably won? Yeah, they have a good track record there.

	19-08-2003 02:23									#13
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Do you have a link to the poll?

	19-08-2003 02:23									#14
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Larry Flynt!

Or you can always vote for Georgy the hot Linux-using chick.

	19-08-2003 02:24									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Arianna!!

Arianna is an idiot. 10 years ago she professed to be a Newt Gingrich conservative and now she's running around trying to be a born again communist. I think she's done so many drugs she doesn't know who she is any more.

	19-08-2003 02:28									#16
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Because that's the best you're going to get and demanding ideaological purity is what got the California Republican Party in the state it is in today.

Well, the same behavior got the reps. both houses of congress and the white house. Maybe they just need to give it another nice try.

	19-08-2003 02:50									#17
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whatever happened to runoffs? or is the population too apathetic to support going twice?

	19-08-2003 02:52									#18
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Because that's the best you're going to get and demanding ideaological purity is what got the California Republican Party in the state it is in today.

So, in other words, it makes perfect sense for conservative California Republicans to vote for a socially liberal actor with no prior political experience who has yet to articulate a plan at all and who has surrounded himself in his campaign with prominent staunch Democrats like Buffett and Lowe?

That's ludicrous. Arnold doesn't stand for the values most Republicans believe in...he's ideologically identical to a lot of Democrats! Where does he differ in belief from Davis, even?

Even Riordan would be a more palatable choice for a conservative. What use is it voting the party line when the Republican in question isn't at all someone who shares your ideals or values?

	19-08-2003 02:55									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov So, in other words, it makes perfect sense for conservative California Republicans to vote for a socially liberal actor with no prior political experience who has yet to articulate a plan at all and who has surrounded himself in his campaign with prominent staunch Democrats like Buffett and Lowe? That's ludicrous. Arnold doesn't stand for the values most Republicans believe in...he's ideologically identical to a lot of Democrats! Where does he differ in belief from Davis, even? Even Riordan would be a more palatable choice for a conservative. What use is it voting the party line when the Republican in question isn't at all someone who shares your ideals or values?

I smell liberal subterfuge. let the war begin!

	19-08-2003 02:57									#20
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quote: Originally posted by GePap You mean the same republicans that chose Simon as their candidate and not Riordan, who would have probably won? Yeah, they have a good track record there.

Well, that election didn't have the plethora of candidates in this recall election. In order to survive, and get a candidate you wouldn't mind while keeping out a candidate you don't want, you almost have to go with the flow.

	19-08-2003 02:57									#21
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If I was Arnould I wouldn't articulate a plan either. I mean why? If I do then I must say what programs I will cut to balance the budget and this will alienate some voters, where as, if I just speak in generalities with no specifics then I will offend no one.

Once in office it doesn't matter who you offend just as long as you don't offend enough people to get slapped with a recall.

	19-08-2003 03:02									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Once in office it doesn't matter who you offend just as long as you don't offend enough people to get slapped with a recall.

My friends were talking about the possibilty of having a second recall election after the first one votes in a disappointing governor. And if it were to happen, my friend who wanted to run for the election but didn't cause he'd have to resign from his job in order to do so, might get a campaign together the second time.

	19-08-2003 04:17									#23
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I hope Ahnold won't get elected. If he does, they ain't gonna make Terminator 4!

	19-08-2003 04:17									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Even Riordan would be a more palatable choice for a conservative.

They had thier chance. Now they have to live with the consequences.

	19-08-2003 04:19									#25
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc They had thier chance. Now they have to live with the consequences.

Were that the case, the recall wouldn't be happening, since Davis is the consequence.

	19-08-2003 04:24									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Were that the case, the recall wouldn't be happening, since Davis is the consequence.

The recall is happening because Davis has been such an incompetent that he lost the support of his own party.

	19-08-2003 09:49									#27
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Because that's the best you're going to get and demanding ideaological purity is what got the California Republican Party in the state it is in today.

You're too pragmatic to be a real conservative.

Neither the state nor the national party's social conservative side wants to promote the idea that you need to accept and promote moderate candidates to gain seats. Think platform fights in the conventions, RNC infighting on which primary candidates to support, sending mixed signals to fundraisers, etc.

IMO, the general view in each national party (the DNC treats moderate and conservative Dems with even more contempt) is that their less ideologically pure members will still support one of their own party, rather than a more ideologically removed candidate from the opposite party, so the disenchanted will still remain within their respective party ranks.

From a more cynical, Macchiavellian point of view, the last thing you want in a California governor is an ideological moderate who isn't in step with either party's ideologues. A successful, popular governor of California is a huge factor in presidential primary considerations, if not as a candidate, as a power broker. From the Republican point of view, California is a very expensive state to campaign in (lots of expensive media markets, lots of travel, big staffs), and a liberal government that ****s up is worth a lot of ammo against Dems in other states. First we've got the energy debacle, then the budget, and now both the budget and the recall. The Republicans aren't hurting on the national level because California is dominated for the moment by Democrats.

	19-08-2003 09:57									#28
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quote: Originally posted by badams52 My friends were talking about the possibilty of having a second recall election after the first one votes in a disappointing governor. And if it were to happen, my friend who wanted to run for the election but didn't cause he'd have to resign from his job in order to do so, might get a campaign together the second time.

Yet another inconsistency in the California Election Code is the number of petitions necessary to be signed to certify a recall election. In a recall of a regularly elected officeholder, it's clear, but how you derive the number of signatures needed to certify a recall of a statewide officeholder who takes office in a special election or by executive appointment ISN'T clear. So there may not even be a possibility of recalling the replacement until the courts or legislature act to define the qualifying votes.

If the recall produces a suckass replacement, I doubt anyone will put out the money for signature gatherers for a second effort, and the electorate will be pretty jaded about the whole process. What will really rile things up is if the state gets a much better performing governor out of the recall process, because that will encourage future use of the recall process more than any other result. Right now, I'm giving 5 to 3 on Bustamante as the next governor.

	19-08-2003 10:44									#29
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Hell, at least the primaries introduce certain order into the election campaign, by bringing one candidate per party. Now it's a total mess. Parties (and party bureaucracies) are largely irrelevant. I hope Davis retains his job (for the good of America).

	19-08-2003 10:46									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Arianna!!

I'd hit it.