13-09-2003 22:08									#61
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.

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	13-09-2003 22:12									#62
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anyway, back on topic:

who thinks this will actually be carried out?

	14-09-2003 00:35									#63
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I know how the Bush admin is handling this, they are against it. But what are the positions of the top Democrats? Anyone know?

	14-09-2003 00:40									#64
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Who is this man, Bush? Is he a closet liberal?

Well, he certainly ain't a fiscal conservative.

	14-09-2003 01:08									#65
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quote: “The problem is not just my problem and the threats that Israel has made to eliminate or remove me,” Arafat said. “The problem, the real danger, is the intent of the Israeli government to cancel the Palestinian partner and to eliminate the presence of the Palestinian Authority.”

http://www.msnbc.com/news/801833.asp?0cv=CB10

The man starts to take the stage and shift the focus from his own bloody role.

	14-09-2003 02:14									#66
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If you want Arafat to gain further in stature, this threat of expulsion is exactly the way forward. The question is, are Sharon and co acting on wishful thinking, or are they looking for an escalation?

An interesting thesis for the latter:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/339476.html

quote: Indeed, the people who are deciding Israel's future know that they are not eliminating terrorism but heightening it, but they believe that this is the heavy price to which we have to agree in order to destroy the Palestinians' capability to maintain national existence. In their view, the breaking of the population's resistance and the ghettoization of the territories are a sine qua non for the consolidation of Israel's future.

	14-09-2003 02:48									#67
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That seems to be the plausible explanation indeed

	14-09-2003 02:54									#68
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I read part of the article. That this move will lead to further radicalization of the Palestinians, will not reduce terrorism in the slightest and has good chances of increasing it is a given. However as to exactly why they want that it's not clear. To what extend can their responce be anyway.

	14-09-2003 04:24									#69
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quote: Once again, this clearly shows that the Israeli government is not viewing the Pals as their equal but as second class citizens, people to dictate terms to.

stupid. stupid. stupid. stupid.

This is as idiotic as saying that the US sees Mexicans as second class citizens, people to dicatate terms to.

Palestinains are not second-class Israeli citizens. They are not Israeli citizens at all. They are all citizens of the PA autonomy.

Arafat is NOT the president of Israeli Arabs. Israeli Arabs have their won leaders and their own Knesset Members. He is the chairman of the Palestinain Authority, and the chiarman of PLO.

It is a stupid ignorant mix between palestinian authority, israeli arab citizens and what not.

I rule you to be too damn ignorant to post about this conflict ever again.

	14-09-2003 04:31									#70
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quote: I've walways wondered about Arafat's being democratically elected...who were the other candidates in that election? Anyone know of any?

some local bussiness man.
of course with Arafat being in direct control from ... 1993, he didn't stand much chance now, did he?

	14-09-2003 04:48									#71
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quote: When the peace process worked ? Well, I assume it pleads in tha favor of what I say

That's like saying that the 'peace process (appeasement policy) worked' between 1933 and 1939, and that WWII was not a failure of the 'peace process' (aka appeasement policy) with germany.

quote: Yes. That's because Arafat is an ******* and a thug. I am very much in favor of him losing power. I'm merely saying than his only expulsion from power will NOT be enough, if you can't allow his sucessors to be "moderate". I'm also telling this money should somehow bribe the PA government into actively fughting terrorism, and into changing its propaganda: Arafat got his support on his historical 'legitimacy', and on the hatred for the Jews. He actively promoted hatred. The 'moderate' government should be heavily helped / bribed so that radicalism stops to be vital for it, and even so that radicalism becomes dangerous for it (because it would stop the funding/bribing machine).

Well that's what we ARE trying to do. To create incentives for a PA government to fight terrorism.
Carrot: Peace progress, IDF leaves, settlements frozen
Stick: otherwise we'll assassinate Hamas, weaken your base of power, do the job ourselves

quote: Thank you. You just said you want the war to last forever

Nope.
I've said that I'm not willing to sign any more fake "peace plans".

The only solution is an absolute crushing victory - all of the terrorist group leaders killed, the whole "old leadership" of the PA killed.

quote: Yes, I like Rabin. And yes, he was right when telling Arafat is a dangerous guy for the peace. Now, he is far from being the only reason for the war. Palestinians live in fear and disgust as much as Israelis do. You may tell all you want "we do everything possible to avoid civilian deaths" (which I trust), it doesn't change the basic reality that a Palestinian can fear of being crippled or dead when he leaves for work in the morning. It doesn't change the fact the Palestinians suffer from a all-day-long humiliation.

true. And as soon as their government starts acting against terrorists, they will have the humiliation spared, the assassiantions stopped, the IDF out.

Let's review back to 2000.

The PA has control of all A and B areas. IDF is out. No assassinations. Palestinian police, HQs untouched.
Do the PA do something to stop terrorism?
Nope.
They set all of their Hamas and Islamic Jihad prisoners free!!!!

quote: Arafat is an ******* and profits from this situation, so he'll do nothing to change it. Islamists profit hugely from the situation, and they'll do everything to worsen it. A replacing government (especially Israel-sponsored) will be too weak to adress it. Only Israel could do something about it.

exactly.
So arafat needs to be removed.
the Islamists need to be removed.
A replacing government won't work right now.

Solution:
1)remove arafat, his friends, and the islamists.
2)install temporary limited autonomy
3)wait several years until local strong leaders evolve.
4)persue peace then.

quote: I know it's not your job, but if you're the only ones who can do it, you should swallow your pride and do it. It is in your interest as much as the Pals'.

I agree.
But I see no possible plan to solve the situation except what I proposed above.

quote: This is precisely why I oppose this decision. It is rushed and not weighted enough. I prefer to take some more time so that good decisions can be taken. A wrong decision is not beter than no decision at all.

I think the Israeli government has approached this decision in a much weighted and non-rushed form.

Rushed, would be, if we would have decided to expell him in october 2000.

after 10 years of lies, it is not rushed. It's slow learning.

quote: The idea of promoting Abu Mazen was great. In the end, it failed because Abu Mazen was shackled by the impression eh gave that he was "the man of the Israelis". Had Israel given him more (financial) strength to please the population, he might have won the hearts of the Pals

WRONG.

Israel gave a whole lot of financial strength. A good part of the curfew were off. A good part of the roadblocks were off. Export and Import were no longer stiffled. Tens of thousands were allowed to work inside Israel. Money was given to the PA.

Abu Mazen decided to resign because of 1 reason and 2 events that threatened his life.
The reason is Arafat.
The two events:
1. Arafat sponsored "protestors" from the Al-Aqsa brigades appeared outside the PLC discussion of his government, began yelling "Abu Mazen is a trator" "Arafat is the only leader" and sprayed death threats to Abu Mazen.

2. In another council meeting, Arafat called Abu-Mazen "Karzai" referring to the president of Afghanistan, which is considered an installed leader, a traitor.

quote: If Israel has a plan for the succession, and how to make the successor both cooperative and supported by the population, I'm all for it. If such a plan doesn't exist, this decision is simply wrong

You first need to "brainwash" the population.
You can't do that when it's being brainwashed by Arafat or Hamas (with Arafat turning a blind eye).

quote: OR, they could return to working with the PA, accepting that Arafat remains the head but ignoring him, and doing things to help build the political strength of another individual who can then challange Arafat for the leadership and win the backing of the Palestinians from Arafat.

We tried that. What do you think Abu Mazen was?

But everyone, including Abu Mazen admits - there can be no other power while Arafat is in charge. No one is powerfull enough to "ignore" him.

So distancing him from the scene, must be physical.

quote: Not hitting Hamas is not the same as running Hamas: the Islamist militants act outside of Aarafts control and if anyone gains from an Israeli obcession with him it is them..just look, two years of attacking the PA, and now even if the PA wanted to take oin Hamas they are much weaker than before while hamas retains its political popularity.

But that is again a mix of irrelevant straw men.

No one accused Arafat or running Hamas.

Arafat merely declared Hamas leaders as heroes, named streets after them, and held public funerals for them (see the serniour hamas engineer we killed in 1996 when his cellphone exploded).

Arafat merely made sure that palestinain school books suggest that martyrdom is the best action. Arafat merely made sure that Hamas supporting preachers are appointed to mosquest. Arafat merely made sure that the state run television and radio channels, give stage to Hamas supporting preachers. Arafat merely made sure that Hamas converters were allowed to reign free in universities.

He's practically innocent!!!



As for blaming Israel of attacking the PA - it is again silly.

In fall 2000, the PA, having had it's full strength, it's cities under its control, no IDF actions so far, HAVE RELEASED ALL HAMAS AND ISLAMIC JIHAD MEMBERS FROM PRISON!!!

It's not a question of making them want to fight terrorism. Israel agreed to negociate with them, because they promised they would do that. As soon as they broke that contract, Israel is better off without them, fighting terrorism on it's own. And the PA is no longer a partner, since they don't keep their part of the deal.

And that is without mentioning that Arafat funds and controls the Al-Aqsa brigades.

quote: I´m against it too. But if one is for or against that decision - only announcing that Arafat will be expelled, then waiting until even the last Palestinian views him as martyr and supports him even more is the most stupid thing to do. They should either not do it at all (or keep quiet if there are any plans), or they should do it immediately without such an announcement that gives Arafat a kind of importance he hardly had during the past months.

I disagree. I see it as a vaccination for the real deal.

First we announce that we will rid of Arafat, and take all the PR and foreign hit we can. Remember that while we haven't actually done this, the PR hit is not as big, since we haven't actually carried anything out.

Meanwhile, public opinion gets used to the fact that Arafat is doomed. Since Arafat is not yet gone, the foreign governments are not yet furious, and level-headed enough to think about the possibility of Arafat being gone, and deciding it's not such a bad thing after all. The PA uses up all the tricks it has to put public pressure on Israel, and physically defend Arafat.

By the time Israel does expell Arafat - it is a non-event. Public opinion have deal and "went on" so to speak, to other issues. Foreign governments have made peace with that decision, without being "infuriated" at a sharp Israeli step. All the Arab street is already tired from protesting 24/7 for weeks.

See?

	14-09-2003 04:50									#72
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eek
so many spelling mistakes. so little time.
it's 3 AM. i'm going to bed or something.

	14-09-2003 05:11									#73
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quote: Originally posted by Sirotnikov quote: When the peace process worked ? Well, I assume it pleads in tha favor of what I say That's like saying that the 'peace process (appeasement policy) worked' between 1933 and 1939, and that WWII was not a failure of the 'peace process' (aka appeasement policy) with germany.

Didn't I put a smiley in this sentence (can't remember ) It was just a phrase to have a cheap shot before the real post

quote: Well that's what we ARE trying to do. To create incentives for a PA government to fight terrorism. Carrot: Peace progress, IDF leaves, settlements frozen Stick: otherwise we'll assassinate Hamas, weaken your base of power, do the job ourselves

Add "settlements removed", "bribes", "artificial betterment of the average Pal situation" to the carrot, and I'm sure you'd have a ticket. The Euros would be more than willing to share the price of the bribes and welfare. After all, signing checks is our favorite warfare strategy

quote: quote: Thank you. You just said you want the war to last forever Nope. I've said that I'm not willing to sign any more fake "peace plans". The only solution is an absolute crushing victory - all of the terrorist group leaders killed, the whole "old leadership" of the PA killed.

And what do you expect the result of the power vacuum will be ? In case of a succession civil war (or hopefully palace war), the neighbouring Arab countries can still send throngs of Imams to gather support and profit from the increased hatred against Israel. In such a situation, your best hope is that a very charismatic moderate Pal emerges. More realistically, the best solution would be a political expert trained by a non-Islamic neighbouring country, i.e Syria or Iran
My point may not be clear, but I mean this: killing all these people as you wish it will create a lack of qualified political personnel. This vacuum will be filled by foreign or foreign-trained agents.

quote: true. And as soon as their government starts acting against terrorists, they will have the humiliation spared, the assassiantions stopped, the IDF out.

Let's hope you're right. I feel the Israelis will be too demanding to the PA government, even if this government will be in a cooperative mood. I can't blame Israel for being demanding, since I can understand the deepest desire for Israelis is to stop living in fear. But if Israeli politicians aren't strong enough to limit their demands towards the PA, the cooperation is likely to fail.

	14-09-2003 06:11									#74
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This quote from a Jerusalem Post article (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satell...d=1063266356786), really struck me:

quote: The crowd held photos of Arafat and chanted: "With our blood and souls we will redeem you." Arafat answered: "With our blood and souls, we will redeem you, Palestine."

Redeem Palestine" is clearly a euphemism for "eliminate Israel".

Arafat was and still is a terrorist who wants the destruction of Israel.

I hope Israel does expel him soon.

	14-09-2003 06:21									#75
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The basic issue is this: will removing Arafat do anything to further the peace proicess? The answer is a resounding NO. NO Palestinians will dare come forward to weork with the Israelis as long as he is out of the country, for fear of looking like an appeaser and sell-out to the Israelis. If he is killed in the attempt, then he becomes a martyr and then again, no pals will work with Israel for a while (perhaps they can boycott Sharon, who has as much blood on his hands). All the while, Arafat gets to hold news conferences on the outside.

That is the simple fact of it, and all the people calling for his ouster have yet to make any case that that won;t be the outcome of this move.

	14-09-2003 06:24									#76
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GePap, I think everyone sees that it would be disastorous to expel him. Some just think that it will be more so not to expel him. It is one hell of a bad situation.

	14-09-2003 06:28									#77
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There are a couple of people in this very thread that think expelling him is a good idea, and it would be nice for them to say what they think that act will actually accomplish vis a vi advancing diplomacy.

	14-09-2003 06:32									#78
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quote: Originally posted by GePap The basic issue is this: will removing Arafat do anything to further the peace proicess? The answer is a resounding NO.

But if Arafat stays, it is 100% sure that the peace process will never succeed. If Arafat is removed there will at least be a chance things may get better. There is none if he stays.

	14-09-2003 06:39									#79
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat But if Arafat stays, it is 100% sure that the peace process will never succeed. If Arafat is removed there will at least be a chance things may get better. There is none if he stays.

And this is why? The idea that he is 100% responsible for ending the peace process and is the reason that the PA never took on tyhe militants is nice and all, but it misses one immense question:

Why did negotiations break down in 2000, and why israel was able to negotiate with Arafat from 93' to '00 but not after. Saying that "with him there there can be no peace" is silly, since he will remain president of the PA outside of the occupied territories anyway, and he will have access to a phone, no?

Israel has to do what it can to foster a new leadership..yes, Arafat will make this difficult becuase he will try to cling to power, which means that anyone tyring to get aorund him will need to be independently popular among the Pals..beyond the leaders of Hamas, this means that the new people of the PA have to show they can get results from the Israelis that better the lives of the average pal. BEFORE they can attempt to strip Aaraft of meaningful power. Israel never gave Abbas that chance, and the Sharon government is unwilling it seems to give that chance to any incoming Pal. As I said, the simplest ad most decisive thing Israel could do to help create a new leadership is dismantle ALL settlements that have gone up since 2000 and freeze all growth..that, more than easing travel restrictions and so would give any new Pal. leader other than Arafat a great boost. sadly, that is the last thing the Sharon gov. will do. All they have done up to now is make the als. rally around Arafat, as they should have known would be the case anyway.

	14-09-2003 07:02									#80
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quote: Originally posted by GePap And this is why? The idea that he is 100% responsible for ending the peace process and is the reason that the PA never took on tyhe militants is nice and all, but it misses one immense question:

He may not be 100% responsible for ending the peace process but he is one of many obstacles to peace. He certainly has contributed to the collapse of the peace process.

quote: Why did negotiations break down in 2000, and why israel was able to negotiate with Arafat from 93' to '00 but not after.

First, negotiations broke down several times before 2000 because of suicide attacks.

Don't forget that Arafat was offered probably the best deal ever. If negotiations broke down in 2000, it is because Arafat rejected the offer and called on an intifada.

quote: Israel never gave Abbas that chance, and the Sharon government is unwilling it seems to give that chance to any incoming Pal.

Israel did try to give Abbas a chance. Israel did dismantle some settlements and lift travel bans etc as a sign of good will.

Arafat refused to give Abbas authority over the security forces. He sabotaged Abbas because he was unwilling to let go of power.

quote: As I said, the simplest ad most decisive thing Israel could do to help create a new leadership is dismantle ALL settlements that have gone up since 2000 and freeze all growth..

If Israel did all this unilaterally, the Palestinian militant groups will only see it as a victory for terrorism and it will only embolden them to carry out more attacks.

	14-09-2003 07:11									#81
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat First, negotiations broke down several times before 2000 because of suicide attacks. Don't forget that Arafat was offered probably the best deal ever. If negotiations broke down in 2000, it is because Arafat rejected the offer and called on an intifada.

Actually, since the second intifada the Pals have gotten the US to openly say that a Palestinian state is US policy..first time ever. Whatever deal finally does end this conflict will be better for the Pals than those of 2000. Even in 2000 the issue of refugees had not been dealt with, and that is one which any pal. leader has to be very cautious.

quote: Israel did try to give Abbas a chance. Israel did dismantle some settlements and lift travel bans etc as a sign of good will. Arafat refused to give Abbas authority over the security forces. He sabotaged Abbas because he was unwilling to let go of power.

Removing unpopulated outposts (many of which were set back up days ater) did not impress anyone. Yes, Aaraft will fight any move he see's as undermining his control. 2 things: once Arafat is out, no one will challenge him for fear of looking like they are doing Israel's bidding, and while Aaraft ay resist, if the person trying to do so could raly popular Pal support they would be able to force Arafat to hand over the security forces. Abbas had no political base, so he had ntohing to push with.

quote: If Israel did all this unilaterally, the Palestinian militant groups will only see it as a victory for terrorism and it will only embolden them to carry out more attacks.

"all this"? Those are things the Israeli will have to do, and l;ets get real: the violence has worked, in so far as now 2000 is seen as the minimum offers, not as so many say, the best deal the Pals were going to get. Those settltmets do zip to secure Israel, and eat up resources. Israel is better of without them anyhow, and if getting rid of them allows for a political opening, then it should be done.

	14-09-2003 07:24									#82
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quote: Originally posted by GePap "all this"? Those are things the Israeli will have to do,

The operative word was "unilateral". Obviously, Israel has to do those things as part of the Road Map. What I am saying is that it would be a mistake IMO for Israel to do those things UNILATERALLY and BEFORE the Palestinians begin to honor their commitments. That would just reward terrorism!

quote: and let's get real: the violence has worked, in so far as now 2000 is seen as the minimum offers, not as so many say, the best deal the Pals were going to get.

You just made my point for me: this peace process has rewarded terrorism. And that is a huge, huge mistake!

	14-09-2003 07:44									#83
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat The operative word was "unilateral". Obviously, Israel has to do those things as part of the Road Map. What I am saying is that it would be a mistake IMO for Israel to do those things UNILATERALLY and BEFORE the Palestinians begin to honor their commitments. That would just reward terrorism!

And so the way not to reward violence is by...letting it continue endlessly, or taking military actions wich will lower but not end the violence? This is a time when "principles" should step behind what one must do to move ahead politically.

quote: You just made my point for me: this peace process has rewarded terrorism. And that is a huge, huge mistake!

And what is the alternative? Besides genocide and ethnic cleasing (which are not plausible aternatives, even if possible ones) the fact is that the Israeli occupaiton of the West bank and Gaza has to come to an end: demographics alone force this issue.

	14-09-2003 12:16									#84
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After reading a lot of good posts here, it is clear that Arafat has to not survive his arrest. He would continue to block peace if he were in exile.

I also find it highly amuzing the liberal penchant for saying we should appease terrorists (and dictators) or else the terror will only get worse. It seems the opposite is true and virtually everyone knows it.

	14-09-2003 14:40									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Ned It seems the opposite is true and virtually everyone knows it.

Who is "everyone" ? I can tell you my "everyone" is definitely not like yours.

	14-09-2003 19:19									#86
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quote: Originally posted by GePap And so the way not to reward violence is by...letting it continue endlessly, or taking military actions wich will lower but not end the violence? This is a time when "principles" should step behind what one must do to move ahead politically. And what is the alternative? Besides genocide and ethnic cleasing (which are not plausible aternatives, even if possible ones) the fact is that the Israeli occupaiton of the West bank and Gaza has to come to an end: demographics alone force this issue.

The alternative is simply to require that the Palestinians end terrorism and dismantle the terrorist infrastructure BEFORE any peace process. These 10 years since Oslo clearly prove that you cannot have a peace process while terrorism occurs. Terrorism must end BEFORE a peace process even begins.

	14-09-2003 19:37									#87
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They could just throw money at them and make them live a human life. That's an alternative too.

	14-09-2003 20:06									#88
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 They could just throw money at them and make them live a human life. That's an alternative too.

I dare say that if they dismatl terrorism that the money will certainly be there.

quote: And so the way not to reward violence is by...letting it continue endlessly, or taking military actions wich will lower but not end the violence? This is a time when "principles" should step behind what one must do to move ahead politically

If the principle is worth standing behind, then it will lead to the desired result eventually. Sometimes the cost is high. If you abandon your principles for a quick deal, then what have you become?

quote: Even in 2000 the issue of refugees had not been dealt with, and that is one which any pal. leader has to be very cautious

Refugees?? The "right of return" is the biggest load of crap in the whole process. We are talking about third and fourth generation people in most cases. In addition, the "refugee" camps have been kept squalid by the Pal leadership despite the US and Europe pouring millions and millions in aid into them that somehow never seems to get to the people. Israel will NEVER agree to this crap and rightly so. It is the final strategy to try to gain political control over Israel after a peace deal is finally done.

The current round of violence may end up backfiring on the Pals negotiation position. Israel may now require concrete steps to dismantle terrorism before anything else can be talked abot. The Pals are not likely to comply. The violence will continue and it is the Pal people who will suffer most. This can be traced back to Arafat directly if you look at his positions over the years. To say that there can be no peace while Arafat is around is not silly. It is unrealistic to assume anything else. He carries the real and symbolic power of Palestine. No deal will go through without his approval. No deal will get his approval that does not provide for the political or physical destruction of the state of Israel. You must recognize the facts and the history.

	14-09-2003 20:10									#89
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Terrorism will not dismantle.
The money has to go there to dismantle it I'm afraid.

	14-09-2003 20:35									#90
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat The alternative is simply to require that the Palestinians end terrorism and dismantle the terrorist infrastructure BEFORE any peace process. These 10 years since Oslo clearly prove that you cannot have a peace process while terrorism occurs. Terrorism must end BEFORE a peace process even begins.

So with no signs that their unilateral acts will be rewarded the Palestinians have to do something? You see, that is the point: whomever in the PA decides to strike at IJ and Hamas (which also means taking on the role of welfare provider tat Hamas took on in Gaza) has to be able to say "look, we have guarantees that after this is done, peace wll go forward. And that is exactly what Abbas DID NOT HAVE. Could Abbas show that if he took on the dangerous job of taking on Hamas, than once that was done the Israelis would do anything for the Pals? NO, he didn't. The fact was that in the road map the moves of taking on the terrorist and dismantling all the settlements set up since Spt. 2000 should have gone on concurrently, and honestly, the greater political weakness on the al side always made this difficult, but Israel could have helped Abbas greatly by doing that to help him show that taking on Hamas would lead to benefits for the Palestinians, cause you will get nowhere among the pals. by sayting that they have to stop killing sraelis simply to make the Israelis feel safe: they don;t care how safe Israelis feel, they simply want to know what will help make their lives better in a host of ways.