03-06-2004 04:48									#91
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We have a problem, Houston.

Arrian is pretty choked up with RL stuff... most of his contributions will be from work, during downtime, and he does not feel that he can appropriately take responsibility for the attack plans. He will, of course, continue to contribute, but...

So, I am happy to take the lead on naval and land defense, but we need someone to get fairly obsessed and creative in terms of the attack. No misadventures as we had on Bob... this is for the gold!!

	03-06-2004 05:35									#92
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Uh, I hope this is OK, but I have asked Vel to be our attack commander.

	03-06-2004 05:54									#93
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Thats great.

I just hope that they aren't tipped off by seeing Vel's or any other rare poster's name as the last post by. We old regs should post something if we see a post was made a few hours previously.

	03-06-2004 06:17									#94
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"Last post by"?

	03-06-2004 06:21									#95
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus "Last post by"?

from the main (forum) page, you can see the last poster in each forum.

A bit paranoid, yes.

hmm. disinformation campaign....

nah, probalby not worth it, just try to fly under the radar until D-Day...

	03-06-2004 06:42									#96
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Ah, good point, I had not realized that. Well then, yes, if somebody like Vel steps up, we have to manage public appearances.

I'm thinking that posturing might revolve around a "resolutely defensive stance" that no one comes within 7 tiles of our coastal border... to be followed by our attack.

	03-06-2004 06:46									#97
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I agree that we need to come up with a cohesive doctrine. Our Monroe Doctrine or some bullshit like that. We need something I think to defend our coasts as well as explain our new scouts. Lego has had theirs out for eons probably, I think we saw one in the middle maybe 20 turns ago, so there are no discernable changes in their strategy...

	03-06-2004 13:30									#98
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We can't really impose a blanket 7 tile exclusion zone - since we can't really deny ND or GoW the use of the coast along their continent. But any ship able to reach the shores in one turn elsewhere around our coast should be hit without further warning (once we have made an announcement to this effect - ideally after we hit Lego ). For the sea between us and Bob, where it is less than 14 tiles across, perhaps we can arrange some policy that individual ships are left alone, but once 2 or more transports are able to launch an amphibious attack on the same tile at the same time, we attack (maybe the threshold should be 3 though). In practice, there is little reason to have transports sitting in that channel for either side, unless bad things are afoot. We could sign an agreement with the Bob civs to only use combat vessels for scouting in the channel, and transports are to be kept well away under threat of sinking on sight. To keep diplo relations good, we'd have to put this to them as a suggestion and ask for their input, or alternative solutions to the marine problem. They'd repsond better that way I think.

	03-06-2004 14:49									#99
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I propose to not declare a sea territory, and just scout the area. The only real threat on the Bobian side is through RP, if we see 4-5 transports from ND - GoW, we would be immediately alarmed, and ask them what they're doing. Plus, don't forget that we probably want to invade them later on, in which case we can't be bothered by complex and technical agreements. Just leave it as is.

Lego is something else, but as they are the first on our hitlist, it's not worth the trouble. To all that want to draft treaties, I would ask to draft an attack-treaty with GoW, as what we're doing now is just very loose communication, without any contract in place. We want them to be our allies, not someone we have chatted with in the street.

PS: last post only mentions the posts in public fora. If Vel would get here, he wouldn't be spotted for as long as he doesn't post in the public forum. And while I welcome his input, I doubt he will be interested in seeing a war over 2 months from invasion point.
DeepO

	03-06-2004 17:32									#100
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quote: Originally posted by DeepO PS: last post only mentions the posts in public fora. If Vel would get here, he wouldn't be spotted for as long as he doesn't post in the public forum. And while I welcome his input, I doubt he will be interested in seeing a war over 2 months from invasion point. DeepO

no, I'm pretty sure that the last post shows who posted regardless of public or private, see for yourself...Unless you can't see a poster from a different private forum...


And re: sea treaties-probably too much trouble at this point.

	03-06-2004 19:56									#101
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Some thoughts on target selection:

1) Invoice. Advantages: size 5 (town) so no defense bonus from that (that does matter with marines, right? I don't use them much), close to Lego's core. Disadvantages: the city itself is unimportant, it's stuck out on skinny penninsula - Lego defense forces stand a pretty good chance of bottling up our strike force and grinding us down before we can do serious damage to their core cities.

I think this is the closest target. There are 11 tiles between Inchoff and Invoice.

2) Quanto Mechanico. Advantages: Probably close to Lego's FP. Disadvantages: Size 9. 15 tiles between Tornado and QM.

3) Abilene. Ad: same as QM. Dis: same as QM. This is farther away than I thought. 16 tiles between it and Sufa.

4) Sandornoirca. Ad: Size3, likely close to FP. edit: wow, closer than I thought. There are 14 tiles between it and Hurricane.

5) San... (can't read it all). Ad: Close to Lego's core. Dis: Size12.

-Arrian

note: tiles between means just that - it does *not* include the city tiles.

Last edited by Arrian on 03-06-2004 at 20:17

	03-06-2004 20:03									#102
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Question: are we definitely going the marine amphib assault route? Or might we still consider a conventional landing, if Lego leaves a tile open? Following up on that, could we use a submarine to check the viability of such a landing w/o Lego noticing?

-Arrian

	03-06-2004 20:13									#103
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Ok, transports have how many moves in PTW? 4 or 5?

Also, do we think Lego's picket ships are fortified, or do we think they are moved 2 tiles in (towards us) and 2 tiles back each turn, patrolling?

-Arrian

	03-06-2004 20:22									#104
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Just looking at the map and going on gut feeling, I like Sandoronica (is that like the third different spelling I've used for that town? ) a lot.

But Invoice does have the advantage of being closest.

-Arrian

	03-06-2004 20:32									#105
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Arrian, the main problem with not doing a marine assault is that we put ourselves open for a full assault: Lego can launch every unit it has against us before we can attack. With a marine assault, we will have many marine losses, but we would be safe the following turn (with enough pillaging), and get the initiative instead of giving it to Lego.

Other questions will have to wait until after work for answering from my side

DeepO

	03-06-2004 20:34									#106
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The last person to post can be seen in the regular forum. If it is really worth hiding a post by team member they can email the post to me and I will post it for them.

I agree with Deepo that we probably should only have an agreement about not using transports in places that are provacative with allies.

	03-06-2004 20:35									#107
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I found some answers in the other thread. I'll paste my comments here, since this is the thread they actually belong in:

So our non-Magellan's transports will have 5 moves. DeepO believes Lego's pickets are forted, giving them +1 sight (so 2 tiles in the case of a caravel, which is currently in position outside Hurricane).

Hrm. Given that, I believe Invoice merits serious consideration. There are 11 tiles between Inchoff and Invoice. If we load the invasion fleet in the coastal tile outside of Inchoff (as I imagine we would), this cuts the #tiles to traverse down to 10, or 2 turns of movement for our invasion fleet. Lego would therefore get 1 turn of warning before our boys hit the beaches.

By comparison, there are 14 tiles between Sandonorica and Hurricane. We would have to manage to get 4 tiles out from Hurricane unseen to be able to manage giving Lego only one turn of warning. More likely, they would have 2 turns warning. That might be fatal.

-Arrian

	03-06-2004 20:39									#108
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DeepO,

Yes, a conventional landing does open us up to a full assault by Lego.

I was thinking, though, that we could use that against them.

Imagine, if we could manage the following:

Turn0 - Legoland sees our invasion fleet. They scramble to cover their coastline or reinforce their nearest cities (even if we do a "conventional" landing, we would want 1 transport full of marines so we could kill an infantry on a hill or something if they go the block-the-coast route).

Turn1 - we land a defense-heavy force. Lego hits it with all they've got. This ought to cost them a lot of units, even if they manage to wipe us out.

Turn2 - GoW and ND hit Lego on the other side with marine assaults and pour in the 3-movers, and gut Lego like a fish.

Obviously, it's risky. But it appeals to me.

-Arrian

	03-06-2004 20:47									#109
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Arrian, Lego could do the easy option of surrounding our invasion forces with infantry, and building forts to help protect them. We wold then have to spend a part of our force trying to break out, or attack some where else without defensive cover

	03-06-2004 20:58									#110
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The point would be either tying up or destroying lots of their troops, just prior to ND & GoW hitting them.

Even if Lego surrounds us with infantry, let's say 2-3 per tile, that's like 15 infantry that won't be protecting cities from the Bobian strike forces.

Further, I think Lego would want to wipe our landing force out ASAP - especially if we bring a settler along.

-Arrian

	03-06-2004 21:13									#111
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Potential LZ's for conventional landing:

1) Sandonorica 21
2) Forkmouth4
3) Kloreep(?) 21

Believe it or not, all three of those have 14 tiles between them and one of our cities (Hurricane for #1 & #2, Inchoff for #3).

#1 and #3 would include settlers, and be very defense-heavy. #2 could be a little more mixed, sans settler, because we can't build a city directly adjacent to another one.

-Arrian

	03-06-2004 21:27									#112
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euh, one major problem here: if you can arrange for GoW to do the conventional landing, we would be best doing the marine assault. We don't want to give Lego to Bob, we want it for ourselves! Let them waste troops...

I'm seeing it more from a conservation of forces approach (at first at least): let them attack one of their cities, which we defend. It's better then in the open, we've got more defensive bonusses (e.g. our infs would be forted (+50%), and in a city (+50%), and most likely they can't even reach us if we do it right. Doughnut tactics aren't going to work anyway, a cav is extremly ill-placed to attack a forted inf.

DeepO

	03-06-2004 21:28									#113
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Oh, and distance isn't really a problem: shipchaining is approved. 5 tiles further simply means one more link in the chain

DeepO

	03-06-2004 21:40									#114
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Oh, meh, shipchaining, right.

One problem with taking and holding a Lego city is the potential flip risk.

-Arrian

	03-06-2004 22:00									#115
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian One problem with taking and holding a Lego city is the potential flip risk.

You think so?

It depends on how many defenders are involved, but I strongly doubt we're going to see a big chance. Especially if we are able to quickly build a harbor (or capture an existing one), so that we get into WLTKD. We're talking about 40 or more defenders that first turn, which is a huge number. PLus, our total culture isn't that bad atm (a bit below theirs). If the chance gets to 5% the first turn, I would be surprised.

But no worries, I'll calculate it once we get there.

DeepO

	03-06-2004 22:03									#116
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Something else, though. We need 5 hospitals to get the battlefield medicine... we're currently at 3, and either want to build another 1 or 2. I think from a strat point, this solves the question of whether we want one in WoC (to get to 5)...

Everybody agrees the BM is worth 4 tanks, right? (it is 400 shields, right?)

DeepO

	03-06-2004 22:08									#117
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Er, yes it is worth it, but I wold be more scared if we were left in their land without defensive cover

	03-06-2004 22:51									#118
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You never know what happens... in a full war, we are likely to meet a culture flip in a city we capture. Any unit close by, forted to heal, would lose that advantage...

DeepO

	03-06-2004 23:18									#119
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I said that BM is worthwhile, but you are right we can not know hat will happen. Could some give me a rough estimate on Legos' own armed forces? Hopefully they will have no tanks, and no marines (at D-Day), but I would reckon they will have at least 40 infantry. Is that estimat about right?


So I will hope for a GL and that we can rush a pallace in their lands, like Arrian suggested (I think it was Arrian)

	03-06-2004 23:41									#120
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you can savely double that amount, Krill. I reckon we will face a minimum of 100 infs. They won't have any tanks, and shouldn't be able to get them soon, but they would have marines (in fact, quite a bit before our invasion)

How do I get to 100 infs? (which is perhaps a bit of an exageration): They've got what, 25-30 cities? At this point, they are likely to be defended by 2-3 rifles each (or perhaps musketmen or pikes, but 2-3 defenders per ciy). Upgrading that amount of rifles isn't that big a deal. So at least 50 infs, which are present there right now (they still show strong compared to us, which might be an indication). Further, they have 1 or 2 turns warning before they are attacked by 2 teams. If they're smart, they will draft infs in all their cities, except those that need the happiness to produce 1-turn infs. 2 turns of drafting, means an additional 50 infs (albeit conscripts). If they don't draft, they have their defenses in place already. And, while they may not know the exact time yet, if they haven't figured out that we're going to attack them, I don't know what is certain in this game anymore.

100 infs at least. History may proof me wrong

DeepO