17-09-2003 05:27									#1
	China's manned space flight program. Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

The Chinese government has announced that they will launch a manned Shenzhou 5 rocket by the end of the year. The Chinese media is saying that the launch of a Chinese rocket will "symbolize China's significant breakthrough in space flight and aerospace business". While I applaud China for building a manned space flight mission I really don't see who this is anything more then a giant pissing context because they're just doing what the Soviets and Americans did 50 years ago. Also it's perfectly clear the EU and Japan could have had manned space programs decades ago if they wanted to but the truth is there is very little money to be made in such a program so they haven't bothered.

The main issue for the Chinese seems to be soothing their bruised egos about being a second rate power for most of the last millenium. Wouldn't the money be better spent by providing water and power to the hundreds of millions of Chinese peasants who make less then $200 per year?


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3112322.stm

	17-09-2003 05:31									#2
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Also the Shenzhou 5 seems to be little more then a Chinese built copy of the Russian Soyuz rocket. Also two Chinese born American citizens have already flowen in Space as part of the American space program so wouldn't this mystery pilot the Chinese are throwing up into space be the 3rd Chinaman in space?

	17-09-2003 05:38									#3
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I agree that the money could be better spent elsewhere, but the propaganda of putting a man on the moon (or whatever) does have real value, if only to themselves. A common purpose around which to rally the country. Something to say "we have arrived from the desert."

	17-09-2003 05:53									#4
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MOST of the millineum?

China makes me feel good about USA problems.

	17-09-2003 06:03									#5
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quote: Also it's perfectly clear the EU and Japan could have had manned space programs decades ago if they wanted to but the truth is there is very little money to be made in such a program so they haven't bothered.

Who cares if manned space programs don't make money? The sooner we ditch the pipe-dream of making manned space flight profitable, the sooner we can colonise space.

	17-09-2003 06:06									#6
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Maybe China's new program will help to further space colonization (they certainly need more places to put people), but I doubt it.

	17-09-2003 06:19									#7
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I have a feeling China will be the dominant hyper-power after the US empire falls.

	17-09-2003 06:54									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Sandman Who cares if manned space programs don't make money? The sooner we ditch the pipe-dream of making manned space flight profitable, the sooner we can colonise space.

The sooner it becomes profitable, the sooner your average corp will send people into space rather than relying on the government to send people there. Make it profitable and people will go there, its as simple as that.

	17-09-2003 06:59									#9
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Yes, it helps heal bruised egos. Ego is very important in Southeast Asia.

	17-09-2003 07:05									#10
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Space colonisation is too long term for the average corp. Even space tourism requires the construction of orbital hotels which could take years. Long term colonisation, of say, Mars, would take lifetimes.

We need to stop thinking of space exploration as an economic opportunity, and start thinking of it as an imperative for the survival of our species.

	17-09-2003 07:06									#11
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we could probably get to Mars in 20 years if we put enough money into it...

	17-09-2003 07:46									#12
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More like 10, Sava, if we went the Mars Direct route.


Where are my Martian colonies? I was promised Martian colonies by 2000!

	17-09-2003 07:47									#13
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Are you sure? I think it would take longer. Remember... we need to get them back from Mars. How do you propose to get astronauts off of Mars after they are on it. Mars' gravity is a little stronger than the Moons'. I'll compromise with you and say 15.

	17-09-2003 08:01									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Sava Are you sure? I think it would take longer. Remember... we need to get them back from Mars. How do you propose to get astronauts off of Mars after they are on it. Mars' gravity is a little stronger than the Moons'. I'll compromise with you and say 15.

Ten. Using Technology we already have. We don't even need any "Battlestar Galactica" ships, just a couple of super-heavy boosters.

	17-09-2003 08:05									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Sava I have a feeling China will be the dominant hyper-power after the US empire falls.

My great great great great great great great great great great great great great grandchildren tremble with fear...

	17-09-2003 10:29									#16
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I can see the Chinese setting a target of making the first manned landing on Mars. Such a boast would likely get a US-China space race going.

	17-09-2003 10:33									#17
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Actually, it is unlikely that China will be the number one superpower. They can't compete, they can only keep up. But, even worse for them is that their population is choking the country. After spending some time in China, you don't worry about them becoming a major super power like the US. But it makes them feel good, if you say that they will.

	17-09-2003 10:45									#18
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It is conceivable that the Chinese could become a Super Power but to do so they'd have to keep their house in order and not have any of the great violent up heavels which has characterized the last 200 years of China's history. They'll also need to find a way to prevent the country from doing a USSR style break up which is actually quite likely if the central authority ever breaks down again. The Manchu, Tibet, and the muslim east are all likely candidates for independence if China ever has a major political upheavel like the Soviets had.

Also if the Chinese want to get their per capita income up to1st world standards then they simply must have a century or so of peace and economic progress. Can China maintain growth for that long? I'm not sure but even if they only maintain it for 25 years then they'll still be the largest economy in the world. Of course it will be a large economy where most people still have an appaling standard of living compared to the west but still.

	17-09-2003 10:50									#19
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China has a per capita income of around $800 but the coastal cities have most of it and the vaste interior has crushing poverty. Compare that to the US's per capita income which is around $40,000 per year and you'll see why even if China maintains a 5% higher growth rate it will be a long time before the Chinese catch up.

Will China be able to maintain a 5% higher growth rate then the US? It will be harder and harder since when you start from next to nothing it's easy to get dramatic growth but once you have alot it becomes ever harder to maintain high percentage growth.

	17-09-2003 12:20									#20
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The growth rate can continue at 5%, maybe not in the coast, but as infrastructure moves inland, growth can take place there also.

	17-09-2003 13:00									#21
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Right, which is a lot to do with why China does not want a Korean war. They know that if a Korean war happens it will probaly hurt EVERY econonmy, especially if they get involved.

They can become a superpower. But they must go about VERY carefully. And if theres any luck, they'll be nice and democratic.

	17-09-2003 13:05									#22
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quote: The main issue for the Chinese seems to be soothing their bruised egos about being a second rate power for most of the last millenium.

I think you'll find that this is a major reason behind most of China's decisions.

	17-09-2003 14:45									#23
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Well, this is obviously part of a sneaky Chinese plot to take over the world! They must be stopped! First they put a man into space, next they'll be putting soldiers in the backyards of America! It's time for Americans to wake up and smell the coffee. The Chinese are coming, the Chinese are coming, the Chinese are coming (and that's why there's so many of them).

	17-09-2003 15:47									#24
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China has to be able to send men into space, if they want to be a full partner in the International Space Station project.

	17-09-2003 17:02									#25
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i'm all for china sending men up to space. why? because it's cool, no matter who does it.

	17-09-2003 17:35									#26
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I say we blow the thing out of the sky. Space is ours, you dirty communists.

	18-09-2003 03:51									#27
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quote: China has a per capita income of around $800 but the coastal cities have most of it and the vaste interior has crushing poverty. Compare that to the US's per capita income which is around $40,000 per year

Be careful about such comparisons. Remember the artificial currency disparity.

Examples:
* In San Francisco, a haircut (with tip) cost me about $35. In Shanghai a comparable haircut costs me $2.25.
* Dinner for one at a neighborhood restaurant is about $3.
* A liter of Qing Dao beer is about thirty cents at a supermarket.
* You can buy a new Chinese pickup truck (a small one) for about $5,000, or a Chinese jeep (copy of a Russian jeep) for a little more.
* A recent minor repair to my bicycle set me back 60 cents, including labor.

	18-09-2003 03:59									#28
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quote: I say we blow the thing out of the sky. Space is ours, you dirty communists.

Uh, they (Communists) were there first.

	18-09-2003 04:45									#29
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quote: Originally posted by mindseye quote: I say we blow the thing out of the sky. Space is ours, you dirty communists. Uh, they (Communists) were there first.

Yes, but we try to keep that one on the down low...

	18-09-2003 06:22									#30
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Now maybe Canada can stop sending aid to China, eh?