17-09-2003 22:23									#1
	Before anyone forgets, WMD's revisited... Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

From this article in the NYTimes, dated Sept 16:

quote: SYDNEY (Reuters) - Former U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix now believes Iraq destroyed its weapons of mass destruction 10 years ago and that intelligence agencies were wrong in their weapons assessment that led to war. In an interview with Australian radio from Sweden, Blix said the search for evidence of biological, chemical or nuclear weapons would probably only uncover documents at best.``The more time that has passed, the more I think it's unlikely that anything will be found,'' Blix said in the interview, which was broadcast on Wednesday. "I'm certainly more and more to the conclusion that Iraq has, as they maintained, destroyed almost all of what they had in the summer of 1991,'' Blix said.

Well, any comments? Looks like the UN wasn't that wrong after all when it decided not to participate in your little war...

	17-09-2003 22:27									#2
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I suppose permanent sanctions would have been a fine solution - punish the Iraqi people, while Hussein found enough "cooperative" states, including some in Europe, to ignore sanctions and help Hussein build more palaces and memorials to himself.

Or the UN could have just abandoned sanctions and proclaimed to the entire world "We have neither the means nor the will to enforce our resolutions, but by all means, continue to pay dues and we can go through the motions."

Seriously, how long would you have continued the charade?

	17-09-2003 22:34									#3
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you conveniently left out this part

'Blix, who spent three years searching for Iraqi chemical, biological and ballistic missiles as head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, said Iraq might have tried to fool the United States into believing it had weapons of mass destruction over the years in order to deter attack.

"I mean, you can put up a sign on your door, 'Beware of the Dog,' without having a dog," he said from his home in Sweden. '


You see the paradox is, if Sadam didnt have WMD, why not document the destruction, and why continue with non-cooperation, etc. So blixie is saying that he decided that the threat of WMD was as good as the actual possesion of them. IF Blixie turns out to be right, this is a hardly a basis for blaming the US and UK.
To finish with Blixies metaphor, if I used to have a dog, and the law has said Im not allowed to have a dog, and my dog dies, but i keep up a sign that says beware of dog, and somebody barges into my house cause of my dog, i can hardly blame them for being mistaken when they dont find a dog in my house.

	17-09-2003 22:40									#4
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That's all very fine but totally beside the point...

The point is that the US and UK governments lied to us when they tried to convince us they had proof of Iraqi WMD's. Powell didn't show pictures of new palaces, he showed us the "proof" the US claimed it had. So the dog-paradox is beside the point here...

	17-09-2003 22:42									#5
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That dog don't hunt.

They lied. So what?

Do you want to have us apologize and return the country to Hussein?

	17-09-2003 22:44									#6
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quote: Do you want to have us apologize and return the country to Hussein?

Here you go, Saddam .

	17-09-2003 22:44									#7
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quote: You see the paradox is, if Sadam didnt have WMD, why not document the destruction, and why continue with non-cooperation, etc. So blixie is saying that he decided that the threat of WMD was as good as the actual possesion of them. IF Blixie turns out to be right, this is a hardly a basis for blaming the US and UK.

They did try to document the destruction, but were not taken seriously. In any case, mere paper would never have been enough for the Bush Administration, so utterly determined to go to war. The pathetic wooden spy drones were used as evidence, despite the fact they posed no threat. The Iraqis refusal to allow spy plane flights was also used as a pretext, despite the fact that satellites made spy planes largely irrelevant, and that the Iraqis were under no obligation to agree to the flights.

	17-09-2003 22:44									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Hueij Well, any comments?

Assuming we believe Blix knows what he is talking about, why didn't Iraq provide proof of this and why is Blix only just now saying he believes it?

	17-09-2003 22:50									#9
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quote: The point is that the US and UK governments lied to us when they tried to convince us they had proof of Iraqi WMD's.

That is stupid to say right after:

quote: 'Blix, who spent three years searching for Iraqi chemical, biological and ballistic missiles as head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, said Iraq might have tried to fool the United States into believing it had weapons of mass destruction over the years in order to deter attack.

Sadam was the liar and he shot himself in the foot because of it... If all this BS is actually true.

	17-09-2003 22:50									#10
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Because Iraqis have just started to say it, and he is just saying he believes them.

	17-09-2003 22:51									#11
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Also, what Japher said.

	17-09-2003 22:54									#12
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I read somewhere that part of Saddam's posturing on WMD may have been due to his fear of Iran and Syria. Apparently he thought those two nations might take advantage of Iraq's weakness if it were true that Iraq didn't have any WMD.

Hindsight is always 20/20 ... Iraq probably would have been better off just coming clean right away and then relying on the international community to prevent its neighbors from doing to it what it did to Kuwait.

Gatekeeper

	17-09-2003 22:55									#13
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Blix, and other inspectors, have been saying for quite some time that it's possible that Iraq destroyed any WMD they had after the first Gulf War, or in 1998. This is just the NYT covering a story that has already been covered.

What's different now, though, is that the "inspections" are now complete -- it just took an invasion and the conquering force to do it, because we were impatient with Blix's inspections (which, if you'll recall, had already shown that the "evidence" possessed by the U.S. was "junk").

It would have been a brilliant move for Bush to have stayed at the point where an invading force was in position, but U.N. inspectors still in Iraq. US force gave the inspectors some force behind their words, and inspections would have eventually shown that there was little or nothing there.

	17-09-2003 22:55									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Hueij That's all very fine but totally beside the point... The point is that the US and UK governments lied to us when they tried to convince us they had proof of Iraqi WMD's. Powell didn't show pictures of new palaces, he showed us the "proof" the US claimed it had. So the dog-paradox is beside the point here...

The basic proof was that it was known that saddam had em, and no evidence he'd destroyed him.

OTOH, it is widely beleived that the admin had iraqi comm intercepts (besides the ones Powell played at the UN) that showed they had them. So another theory goes that even Saddam thought he had them, and so communicated, but that his underlings were lying to him.

	17-09-2003 22:57									#15
	Re: Before anyone forgets, WMD's revisited... Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Originally posted by Hueij From this article in the NYTimes, dated Sept 16: quote: SYDNEY (Reuters) - Former U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix now believes Iraq destroyed its weapons of mass destruction 10 years ago and that intelligence agencies were wrong in their weapons assessment that led to war. In an interview with Australian radio from Sweden, Blix said the search for evidence of biological, chemical or nuclear weapons would probably only uncover documents at best.``The more time that has passed, the more I think it's unlikely that anything will be found,'' Blix said in the interview, which was broadcast on Wednesday. "I'm certainly more and more to the conclusion that Iraq has, as they maintained, destroyed almost all of what they had in the summer of 1991,'' Blix said. Well, any comments? Looks like the UN wasn't that wrong after all when it decided not to participate in your little war...

Like if Blix says it, it's gold ?

Thanks for more rhetoric and whining.

	17-09-2003 22:58									#16
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quote: Originally posted by rev Blix, and other inspectors, have been saying for quite some time that it's possible that Iraq destroyed any WMD they had after the first Gulf War, or in 1998. This is just the NYT covering a story that has already been covered. What's different now, though, is that the "inspections" are now complete -- it just took an invasion and the conquering force to do it, because we were impatient with Blix's inspections (which, if you'll recall, had already shown that the "evidence" possessed by the U.S. was "junk"). .

But they didnt point out an alternate explanation for Iraq not documenting their destruction. And Blix didnt put forward his "beware of dog" theory then. Perhaps because everyone knew that it was NOT the US or UN responsibility to prove that Iraq had them, but Iraqs to prove they didnt have them, and that the "beware of dog" theory would have justified US invasion?

	17-09-2003 22:59									#17
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quote: OTOH, it is widely beleived that the admin had iraqi comm intercepts (besides the ones Powell played at the UN) that showed they had them. So another theory goes that even Saddam thought he had them, and so communicated, but that his underlings were lying to him.

If so, then why wasn't this intel given to Blix at the time?

	17-09-2003 23:00									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Sandman They did try to document the destruction, but were not taken seriously.

then why is blixie even proposing the "beware of dog theory"?

	17-09-2003 23:00									#19
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Nothing, but a run around, was "given" to Blix and that was part of the problem. While France and Germany didn't mind bending over and taking it from Iraq the US wouldn't stand for it...

	17-09-2003 23:01									#20
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quote: Thanks for more rhetoric and whining.

Anything for you Sloww

	17-09-2003 23:02									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Hueij quote: OTOH, it is widely beleived that the admin had iraqi comm intercepts (besides the ones Powell played at the UN) that showed they had them. So another theory goes that even Saddam thought he had them, and so communicated, but that his underlings were lying to him. If so, then why wasn't this intel given to Blix at the time?

Possibilities
1. they did, but this didnt help Blixie find anything, cause it wasnt geographically specific enough.
2. They didnt, cause it involved sensitive sources and methods, and they didnt trust that it wouldnt leak out of blixies org.
3. they did give it to him, and he didnt find anything, cause i was based on lies Saddams underlings told Saddam

	17-09-2003 23:02									#22
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quote: Perhaps because everyone knew that it was NOT the US or UN responsibility to prove that Iraq had them, but Iraqs to prove they didnt have them, and that the "beware of dog" theory would have justified US invasion?

Would you send a SWAT team into a mansion to see if it had a dozen flesh-eating rottweilers in the basement, or would you send in the guy from the dog pound to check it out?

You're correct in that it was up to the Iraqis to prove that they didn't have any banned weapons, but I think one way they can do that is by complying with the inspections (which they were more or less doing).

	17-09-2003 23:03									#23
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I think it's tearing you hawks apart that Blix is probably right.

	17-09-2003 23:06									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Japher Nothing, but a run around, was "given" to Blix and that was part of the problem. While France and Germany didn't mind bending over and taking it from Iraq the US wouldn't stand for it...

Great. Why didn't the US just say that they wanted to *****slap Saddam but instead tried to shove all that BS up the UN's ass?

Bottom line is that the US and the UK lied to the whole world...

	17-09-2003 23:06									#25
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quote: Originally posted by rev Would you send a SWAT team into a mansion to see if it had a dozen flesh-eating rottweilers in the basement, or would you send in the guy from the dog pound to check it out? You're correct in that it was up to the Iraqis to prove that they didn't have any banned weapons, but I think one way they can do that is by complying with the inspections (which they were more or less doing).

would i send in a swat team - well if i knew the guy had been abusing his kids, but that i couldnt do anything about it cause the law didnt allow me to interfere with his parenting, but it did allow me to after dangerous animals, and if i also knew that abused kids had a tendency to misbehave, and such kids had recently firebombed my house, why yes, id send in a swat team.


As for complying, expect some revelations in the next few weeks about that "compliance"

	17-09-2003 23:07									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Sava I think it's tearing you hawks apart that Blix is probably right.

thats ok, it will tear y'all apart when Iraq transforms the region.

	17-09-2003 23:09									#27
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quote: Bottom line is that the US and the UK lied to the whole world...

read this again, very closely:

quote: 'Blix, who spent three years searching for Iraqi chemical, biological and ballistic missiles as head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, said Iraq might have tried to fool the United States into believing it had weapons of mass destruction over the years in order to deter attack.

If your are going to believe everything Blix says then at least believe everything he says...

	17-09-2003 23:12									#28
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quote: and such kids had recently firebombed my house

Are you referring to 9/11?

quote: As for complying, expect some revelations in the next few weeks about that "compliance"

If you're referring to the Kay report, it's already been turned over to Tenet, who's now deciding whether or not it should be classified and never released to the public.

Let's face it -- if Kay had found anything, we'd have heard about it by now. They stopped actively searching suspected weapons sites quite some time ago and now Kay has been reduced to piecing together Iraqi documents to suggest that they had *plans* for building WMDs. That's a far cry from Iraq being an "imminent" threat that couldn't be reduced by continued inspections.

	17-09-2003 23:13									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Sava I think it's tearing you hawks apart that Blix is probably right.

Nope.

'Today it is perplexing and rather painful indeed for the people of Halabja to hear voices in the international community that continue to insist on proof for Saddam's weapons of mass destruction," said Barham Salih, the prime minister for the western part of Iraq's Kurdish region. "Here is the proof. Halabja is the proof. . . . This mass grave in Halabja and the other 170 so far discovered mass graves in Iraq should dispel any doubts about the legitimacy of the American and British liberation of Iraq. These mass graves vindicate the moral imperative of your intervention to protect the people of Iraq."

Powell was joined by Iraq's top Kurdish leaders, Massoud Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Jalal Talabani of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, who preside over a swath of northern Iraq that had been autonomous since it split from Iraq after the 1991 Persian Gulf War. The two leaders, who sit on the country's interim Governing Council, expressed opinions similar to those of Salih. "The tragedy of Halabja gives them the legitimacy for going to war," Barzani said. '

	17-09-2003 23:15									#30
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quote: Originally posted by rev If you're referring to the Kay report, it's already been turned over to Tenet, who's now deciding whether or not it should be classified and never released to the public. Let's face it -- if Kay had found anything, we'd have heard about it by now. They stopped actively searching suspected weapons sites quite some time ago and now Kay has been reduced to piecing together Iraqi documents to suggest that they had *plans* for building WMDs. .

and evidence that Iraq was misleading the inspectors, from what i have heard.