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Master Zen
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of naughty
Jan 2003 time: 23:30
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I think we're falling into a trap.
GS's knights are nowhere to be seen (seriously they have more than 8). My suspicion is they are held back waiting to see the focus of our main attack. Why do they have all those cats defending the pikes? Easy, they'll cause casualties if we capture those two stacks, but... if GS decides to go on the offensive, they'll do it with knights, not with the pikes/med infs. So, those cats are rather expendable for their offensive purposes. As a lure, however, they are wonderful.
Now, what benefit do we get at attacking and getting those cats if GS decides to strike elsewhere? They could be positioning their other main knight stack either 1) Around Barcelona to counterattack own own assault while it's damaged (we could find out by moving our lone rider E - SE before planned attack), or 2) Around Pamplona planning to drive west.
I think attacking fortified pikes in hills is silly. They represent no threat as is and cannot threaten us unless they move closer. However, they can't move closer without moving into flat terrain which is where we would be best to attack them.
Anyway, I haven't really been following the complete military situation so I'm probably just talking nonsense 
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Hot_Enamel
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Melbourne, Australia
Aug 2002 time: 14:30
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I have been worried about a trap as well... (And should of spoken up a little sooner)...
Also, GS will probably be using the "fortify all" trick that makes those Pikes fortified on the hills.
++ ouch ++
I think GS are doing what they said they are going to do... help rebuild RP.
They are gifting back cities, and are probably just making area's secure for RP resettlement.
If we really wanted to hit them hard, we should be attacking Pampalona. If RP has no military, GS will be forced to defend all of their cities as well.
GS biggest weakness is that they are strategists.
They will simulate every battle and analyse everything to death.
They wont attack unless the odds are in their favour.
Similarly, they wont let themselves be attacked unless it also favors them.
This makes them predictable.
I am torn between finally kicking some GS ass, or to continue to play cautious.
Last edited by Hot_Enamel on 19-09-2003 at 06:08
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Aggie
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Of GOW's half of BOB
Jun 2002 time: 23:30
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Mz i figured that the odds were 4/9.25 per attack without a catapult. Here's my analysis.
The first 8 Nd forces attack and assuming they take a hit from catapults. The odds in these are 12/33, roughly a 5 loss and 3 win. Lets assume the winners are on average at 2/4.
Current stack ()=unfought ND3(7) Gs = 5(3)
Now the other 7 attack. This is divided into 2 stages.(
the first 3 atatck full units at odds of 4/9.25, this results in 2 loses and 1 win.
Current stacks ND4(4),GS0(7)
Next the 4 fresh attack the previously unfought
odds are 16/10.5 = probably 3 wins 1 loss
Current Stack ND0(7),GS0(4)
Now we attack
odds of each attack(assuming that catapult hits) 12/10.5
WE need 7 or 8 to win. that leaves 7 more at "the Alamo", with 7 coming the following turn.
Total loses GS 8knight,3pikes,8 catapult,settler
ND 8 Answar(note some of these might retreat)
GS 4 Riders(same note, but less likely since units will be attacking weak units).
Thats a winning exchange.
Note: the other attack eastward against the second stack only occurs if ND gets incredable lucky. The reson this assault could then work is this. the catapult imediately fire 8 shots at the adjacent stack and then we take those from nd and then get another 8 shots.
In that case we then either atatck or put 10 riders as defense there. On a hill such a stack has a huge advantage. Rememebr our wounded forces can go recover, GS can not.
Aggie
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