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Apolyton Civilization Forums : Powered by vBulletin version 2.0.3 Apolyton Civilization Forums > Miscellaneous > Archive > Off-Topic-Archive > Is probability so hard to understand?
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yavoon is offline yavoon
Warlord

Oct 2001
time: 05:31
  Old Post 30-09-2003 20:14
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#61 Report this post to a moderator
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quote:
Originally posted by orange


Huh? Equal chance of rolling a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 8 (non-orange as it is of roling a 7, 9, or 10 (orange) from Jail.

Also - there are 9 and 9 types of rolls that are greater and less than 7, and 3 types of rolls that are equal to 7

1,1 < 7
1,2 < 7
1,3 < 7
1,4 < 7
1,5 < 7
2,2 < 7
2,3 < 7
2,4 < 7
3,3 < 7

1,6 = 7
2,5 = 7
3,4 = 7

2,6 > 7
3,5 > 7
3,6 > 7
4,4 > 7
4,5 > 7
4,6 > 7
5,5 > 7
5,6 > 7
6,6 > 7


not sure what all those #'s mean. but there is 1 way to roll a 2(1,1). two ways to roll a three(1,2;2,1). and 5 ways to roll a 8(6,2;2,6;3,5;5,3;4,4).

yavoon is offline yavoon
Warlord

Oct 2001
time: 05:31
  Old Post 30-09-2003 20:16
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#62 Report this post to a moderator
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quote:
Originally posted by tinyp3nis

Because the host allways chooses one from the _other two boxes_, you have 50% from the start...


66% if u switch. 33% if u don't.

Curiosity is offline Curiosity
Warlord

Jan 2003
time: 05:31
  Old Post 30-09-2003 20:28
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#63 Report this post to a moderator
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quote:
Originally posted by tinyp3nis
Because the host allways chooses one from the _other two boxes_, you have 50% from the start...


Nope - choosing the first box is a 1/3 chance. Nothing can change that unless you switch.

tinyp3nis is offline tinyp3nis
Warlord
compensate this!!
May 2002
time: 07:31
  Old Post 01-10-2003 11:41
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#64 Report this post to a moderator
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Now that I think of it, I have probably seen this before years ago in school and ****ed it up then too. You are right.

Urban Ranger is offline Urban Ranger
Apolyton Duke of Off-Topic

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The City State of Noosphere, CPA special envoy
May 1999
time: 13:31
  Old Post 01-10-2003 12:55
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#65 Report this post to a moderator
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This one's pretty easy.

Initially, you have 1/3 chance of picking the right box and 2/3 chance of picking a wrong one.

In the first case, if you switch, you get an empty box. In the second case, if you switch, you get the prize. So, if you switch, your chance of getting it right is twice as big as you don't.

Sikander is offline Sikander
King
Boulder, Colorado, United Snakes of America
Jan 2000
time: 22:31
  Old Post 01-10-2003 13:35
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#66 Report this post to a moderator
Re: Is probability so hard to understand? Get a bigger avatar today!

I'll lay 9 to 5 that it is.

Kropotkin is offline Kropotkin
Emperor
of Ålidhem
Mar 1999
time: 06:31
  Old Post 01-10-2003 14:18
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#67 Report this post to a moderator
Enter the AD-FREE zone

I find propability to be dead simple. But maybe 15 years of boardgames and role-playing might have something to do with that...

 
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