29-09-2003 07:05									#1
	Is probability so hard to understand? Suffering from ads?

Yesterday I was telling my mom about probability. She didn't understand any of it.

I was saying to her, if you flip a coin 10 times, and heads came up 9 times, does it mean that head has a 90% chance to come up the next flip? Of course not. When you roll a die 6 times, and 5 came up all 6 times, does it mean that 5 will come up next time as well? Of course not.

But she didn't understand. Why can't people grasp such simple concepts?

	29-09-2003 07:09									#2
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So what's the difference between probability and actuarial science?

	29-09-2003 07:11									#3
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Probability is a big conspiracy! God does not play dice. Dont listen to the devil's preachings!

There's about 100% probability that I may not be serious when I said that.

	29-09-2003 07:13									#4
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Cause its math beyond arithmatic and thus by definition NOT simple..shees, why can't science types understand somehting so simple?

	29-09-2003 07:27									#5
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Probabilities are not simple. How exactly would a computer calculate a completely random value? Not easily. Of course when you're talking in stupid terms, like the physical realm of a coin, then probability is more of a joke. Much easier to understand...

Can you write a truly accurate simulation of the perfect dice, UR? Did not think so.

	29-09-2003 07:28									#6
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quote: When you roll a die 6 times, and 5 came up all 6 times, does it mean that 5 will come up next time as well? Of course not.

Yes it will! The dice are obviously loaded.

	29-09-2003 07:36									#7
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When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

	29-09-2003 07:48									#8
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50% I think

	29-09-2003 07:50									#9
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When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

	29-09-2003 07:52									#10
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Sorry for the delayed double post...


Boshko: and with six dice? 100%?

	29-09-2003 07:54									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Wiglaf Probabilities are not simple. How exactly would a computer calculate a completely random value? Not easily. Of course when you're talking in stupid terms, like the physical realm of a coin, then probability is more of a joke. Much easier to understand... Can you write a truly accurate simulation of the perfect dice, UR? Did not think so.

Understanding probability and generating random numbers on a computer aren't the same thing.

Computers can never be perfect at generating random numbers because all they are is glorified input/output devices. The input defines the output, which means it needs to start from something, which means it can never truly be random.

This is a very different thing from saying we don't understand how probability works.

	29-09-2003 07:55									#12
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Your mom is probably used to loaded dice.

	29-09-2003 08:16									#13
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Cause its math beyond arithmatic and thus by definition NOT simple..shees, why can't science types understand somehting so simple?

No, it's not the calculations, it's the basic concepts behind it.

	29-09-2003 08:33									#14
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What is the probability of this thread becoming way boring??

	29-09-2003 08:47									#15
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3d6 to get at least one 6: 42+%
6d6 to get at least one 6: 66+%
10d6 to get at least one 6: 83+%

See, lots of fun.

	29-09-2003 08:52									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Nacht When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

Getting one 6: 3/6
Getting two 6s: 3/36
Getting three 6s: 1/216

But I wasn't talking about the calculations, I was talking about the basic concepts!

	29-09-2003 08:52									#17
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oh yeah -- thrilling

	29-09-2003 08:53									#18
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quote: Originally posted by MrFun What is the probability of this thread becoming way boring??

0%, for it has already achieved such status.

	29-09-2003 08:53									#19
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Stop spamming my thread MrFun

	29-09-2003 08:53									#20
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When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

91 / 216 42%

	29-09-2003 08:54									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Stop spamming my thread MrFun

fine

	29-09-2003 08:59									#22
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216 = 6^3

91 = (6)! +1
----
6

so we have ( ( (n)! / n ) +1 ) / n ^ d


where d = number of dice

n = number of faces.

	29-09-2003 09:04									#23
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What is the probability of God existing?

	29-09-2003 09:06									#24
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Probability isn't intuitive. At least, not for me. And the same is probably true for most people. That's just how our brains work. If I didn't have the proper mathematical training (as is the case with most people), I'd be scrwed.

	29-09-2003 09:07									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Asher What is the probability of God existing?

100%

	29-09-2003 09:07									#26
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no wait, 3 dice is
38.8888888888888888% of getting at least 1 six
6 dice is, or is it? aaaargh I used to know how to calculate this nine years ago

	29-09-2003 09:08									#27
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO 100%

When I try to parse it I get divide by zero errors.

	29-09-2003 09:12									#28
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quote: I used to know how to calculate this nine years ago

I think my formula's right. That's probably the quickest way to calculate the probabilities.

	29-09-2003 09:25									#29
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On a related note, why are groups supposedly so hard to understand? I mean, it's so simple - for instance, fibres of an automorphism between normal subgroups formed by taking the left coset of an abelian group that happens to be a ring under another commutative operation, anyone who doesn't understand every last theorem about these concepts should be shot. Shot I tell ya! Why can't people grasp such simple concepts?

	29-09-2003 09:26									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo On a related note, why are groups supposedly so hard to understand? I mean, it's so simple - for instance, fibres of an automorphism between normal subgroups formed by taking the left coset of an abelian group that happens to be a field under another commutative operation, anyone who doesn't understand every last theorem about these concepts should be shot. Shot I tell ya! Why can't people grasp such simple concepts?

Please don't shoot me . . .