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Arnelos is offline Arnelos
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Sep 2002
time: 00:31
  Old Post 17-10-2003 18:22
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quote:
Originally posted by Dominae


Define:

H - when our unit scores a pip
T1 - when a GCA unit scores a pip but does not kill our unit
T2 - when a GCA unit scores a pip and kills our unit

Then the sequence you're talking about is does not look like T-T-T-T-T-T (like in your example), but something more like H-H-T1-T1-T2-H-T1-T1-H-T2-T1-H-H-H, etc. In other words, there's a bunch more going on that a simple sequence of "GCA always wins", because combat is random on the level of pip loss, not unit loss. Now think of how many possible strings of the second kind model the combat results we've seen so far: I think you'll agree with me that there are a great number of them, and these must all be summed together to get an accurate figure on how likely it was for GCA to do what they did.

Your second figure (1 in 4000) seems far more plausible to me...and I would not be surprised if it was again lowered by a another factor. Still that would be within 1% and that would be grounds enough to blow the whistle on GCA. So I'm not disagreeing with you, I just think that there's something wrong with how you're doing your analysis. Either that or there's something I'm really not understanding in your explanations.


Dominae


While true, it is possilbe to compute victory/loss on the level of unit loss rather than pip loss and thus avoid the issue of even delving into pips if you ignore them for purposes of doing the statistics. That's why I REMOVED (completely) from consideration all pip good/bad luck when I wanted to do a slightly more thorough analysis.

It is entirely valid to do an analysis on the unit win/loss level without considering pip victory/loss because you can establish the percentage chance of victory for a unit overall and use that. It's simply a matter of using a unit of measurement that is larger and still coherent.

Arnelos is offline Arnelos
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  Old Post 17-10-2003 18:28
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wervdon is correct. I have also created my own way to calculate victory loss that is identical in values to CFC's one. However, for the catapults, figuring in their influence is a relatively simple thing to do.

If you have a 50/50 of winning a combat between two veteran units, but the defender is covered by a catapult, it's relatively simple to change the odds and thus incorporate the catapult.

Rather than 2 possibilities, you are now dealing with 4 possibilities, but you need not analyize all four of these because the only two relevant outcomes are unit VICTORY or unit LOSS. The catapult outcome need not be independently analyzed, simply factored into the percentage chance of unit victory and loss.

So where you normally would have a 50/50 battle, adding in the catapult fire (let's say a 64.5% probabily to taking 1 pip off the attacker), lets say the odds of the battle AS A WHOLE change slightly to around 40% victory for the attacker and 60% victory for the defender. This is easy to do because you just establish that there's a 64.5% probability that the attacker will start the battle as a 3/4 and the defender as a 4/4 and a 35.5% probability that they will both start 4/4. Use those to determine the share of the percentage outcomes of each case in the overall tally and you're done.

E_T is offline E_T
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Mar 2001
time: 00:31
  Old Post 17-10-2003 22:21
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quote:
Originally posted by DeepO
Not having computed, or checked anything, I do have one question to ask: How do you exactly alter the RNG? I thought this game had preserve seed on, meaning that they can try different combinations of fights, to get the best sequence, but they can only improve this much.
.
[snip]
.
DeepO


O.K., it has been found out that you can alter the RNG via one verified method, when you load the save, at the time that the city screen come up saying that a build has been completed AND you change the next build to a Wonder, this will somehow change the RNG.

There is also something that I had found out, but hadn't tested while playing an SP game. It involes diplomacy, using the D button on the status box that is on the lower right hand corner of the screen VS calling up the diplo screens Via the F4 screen. I didn't have too much more of a chance to test this, as my computer is an older, slower model and it would take a lot of time for me to do this. Can someone please test this??

As for the RNG and the Preserve Random seed, first off a little information about how random numbers are generated. There are various ways to produce the random numbers that are used in this game, BUT all of those methods REQUIRE a table of numbers, already randomly produced and embedded within the game programs, to produce those numbers from. All that the Preserving the Random Seed does, is to make sure that the start location is at the same point on the table everytime the save is loaded.

Say you have a table of 10 numbers, from 0 to 9, randomly placed on that table. For argements sake, lets say that that table looks like this:

code:
5 4 9 6 2 8 1 4 7 0

The game will first start from some location, determined when the game is created, and then it moves throught that table as a different Random number is called for. For our example, lets say that we start from the 6 and we move left to right, 1 number at a time and then cycle back to the start when we get to the end. Let's also say that. when that random number is generated, a 6 would become 60%. Also for this, lets say that a 0 is 0%

So, you have a 4/4 vs 4/4 unit combat, the chance of winning any round is 50% or better. Your battle goes like this:
code:
1st round - 60% - Win - 4/4 vs 3/4 2nd round - 20% - loss - 3/4 vs 3/4 3rd round - 80% - Win - 3/4 vs 2/4 4th round - 10% - loss - 2/4 vs 2/4 5th round - 40% - loss - 1/4 vs 2/4 IF the Unit attacking was able to retreat, it would, at this point in time, attempt to, using the next Value as that chance. 6th round - 70% - win - 1/4 vs 1/4 7th round - 0% - loss - Attacking unit dead, surviving Defending unit at 1/4 Test for Unit Promotion - 50% (lets say that it requires 80% or higher, so it's not promoted)


So, you can, with enough effort, determine the size of the above random table and the values of that table. From that, you can also determine, ahead of time, what the outcomes might be, if you know where you start from. Random number tables ARE limited in size!

Now, first how can we find out the size and compositon of that table?? One way is through some very exhastive testing, depedning on the size of that table. Another is by locating, in the program itself, that table. Once you know that, the other thing is to know where you start on it, i.e. your random seed. That part is embedded in the save file. How do you find that?? By having the Preserve Random seed turned off, load a save, then save it again, maybe repeating and making several files. Then you compair the files, byte by byte and determine the things that are different, that will be your seed. Then you test that number against a battle and you can then make some form of translation to get your position on the table and you then know what any battle outcome will be, because you can then Look up the probibities and then make your battle plans accordingly.

And, with that info, you can also test various things that will then change the RNG and then know what you need to do to make things better for you.

This is of coarse a possiblilty of what is happening, but it would also explain a lot, because, you then wouldn;t even have to resort to reloading, but just figure the best way to make full use of the odds, that you already know about.

E_T

Shiber is offline Shiber
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  Old Post 17-10-2003 22:44
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Also, the RNG for Civ tends to generate chains of similar numbers for the random numbers table. e.g. If for cell A, the RNG generated the number 3, then it's more probable that for cell B the number 3 or a close number will also be generated than it is probable that any other individual number will be generated. What more, if cell B did receive the number 3, then it is even more probable that cell C will also receive this number or a close one. The longer the chain is, the higher the chances are that it will continue.
Naturally, chains will eventually be broken, but in the mean time, what the player might get is streaks.
Every civ fanatic (no relation to CFC) knows this phenomenon, whether he recognizes it or not - there are streaks of luck in the game. The noticeable ones are produced rarely, but they are produced. Sometimes, you will lose a lot of units in the face of weaker units, and sometimes you will win multiple battles in a row when the odds are against you. If you've lost a lot of battles already and have many before you this turn, it is usually a good idea to call off the attack - or, if you're the kind of player that resorts to cheating, to perform actions that advance the RNG in order to get over the "bad luck streak" and get some fresh results.

P.S. From my experience with these "chains of good/bad luck", I can tell that the RNG table for Civ is very long, and it would take extensive research to figure out its lengh. Otherwise, you would have these noticeable streaks of great or horrible luck much more often in the game, and the combat system would truly suck. (Imagine an entire game of unbelievable luck, and then an entire, though much shorter game of terrible luck. Anyone wanna play?)

DeepO is offline DeepO

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  Old Post 17-10-2003 22:55
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Thanks E_T.

Is this random table thing confirmed? traditionally, a RNG works differently, in that it takes the last number, multiplies it with a large prime number, mod it with another, and divides it by the first again. It doesn't change the rest of your explanation, though, a RNG is cyclic, after a while (depending on the the prime you use as in the mod calculation) it gets back to where it starts. And if the seed doesn't change, the RNG will always lead to the same sequence.

I find it strange that Civ would store a table, when such an easy algorithm exists to generate random numbers. And without the exact algorithm, it is virtually impossible to determine the sequence, even if you have the seed. It simply takes too long before it cycles back.

But... it doesn't really change the rest of my question, though. Assume it is determined that there is only a 1 in 4000 chances of getting the right seed. Purely experimental, that will take GCA on average 2000 reloads before they find it... I don't know if that's even possible in 24h. If you can change the seed in-game, it does become more likely they could use that to cheat. But by reloading? Nah... not with those numbers.

DeepO

OliverFA is offline OliverFA
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Sep 2002
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  Old Post 17-10-2003 23:17
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I don't think that they are reloading 2000 times in 24h to get the best seed. What I think they are simply doing is to reload and test several of the combinations they have accesible (change an order attack here, an unit there) to end with the best possible result among the ones that they have available. For example, stop attacking once they reach to the point in which they start to lose units in the attack.

vondrack is offline vondrack

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  Old Post 17-10-2003 23:32
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quote:
Originally posted by DeepO
Is this random table thing confirmed? traditionally, a RNG works differently, in that it takes the last number, multiplies it with a large prime number, mod it with another, and divides it by the first again. It doesn't change the rest of your explanation, though, a RNG is cyclic, after a while (depending on the the prime you use as in the mod calculation) it gets back to where it starts. And if the seed doesn't change, the RNG will always lead to the same sequence.

Effectively, there is no difference between using the algorithm you describe and a table - since the table would be filled using the very same algorithm. It just speeds things up.

Agreed with OliverFA - even reloading has its limits when the random seed is preserved (and it IS in this game). What I find shocking (and what still keeps me from openly saying "Yes, GCA cheats.") is that the number of tweaks they could do using the RNG tricks available, is quite limited... and YET, they would have been able to accomplish something which happens just once in 6 million times... I mean - they might be able to effectively choose from few hundred possible results (but probably less than a hundred, though). OK, that changes the probability from 1:6,000,000 to something like 1:60,000. That's still pretty slim, I'd say. If you can win a jackpot with the odds of 1:60,000, why would it be so impossible to win a jackpot with the odds hundred times worse...?

EDIT: What I wanted to point out was: even if they were cheating, they would still be unbelievably lucky...

OliverFA is offline OliverFA
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  Old Post 17-10-2003 23:40
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Vondrack, in my opinion it looks that they are lucky just because they don't lose units when attacking. And they don't lose (or lose very few ones) because they reload and don't attack with the losing units. Even with the limited options of just reloading they can save a lot of units, and this makes a big difference.

vondrack is offline vondrack

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  Old Post 18-10-2003 00:15
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quote:
Originally posted by OliverFA
Vondrack, in my opinion it looks that they are lucky just because they don't lose units when attacking. And they don't lose (or lose very few ones) because they reload and don't attack with the losing units. Even with the limited options of just reloading they can save a lot of units, and this makes a big difference.

Well, not really... they still have to attack with something to get rid of the "bad" RNG values (since only very few things other than combat use up RNGs - bombardment comes to mind).

First, as we have discovered recently, you can shift the sequence by few positions by juggling with wonder builds at the beginning of the turn. BUT - that is VERY risky, since that just screams "CHEATING!" (and GCA's turns HAVE been replayed in the past).

Second, you can use up a number here and there by bombardment (if you have artillery units, that is).

Third, you can juggle with the order of units attacking. But since you have only several types (army, reg sword, vet sword, elite sword, vet horse, elite horse... and that's basically it), the number of possible attack sequences is quite limited. It does not matter if you attack with one vet horse or another - the RNGs make them equal. You would need a unit that is somehow different (A-rating or rank) to get a different outcome for a given attack.

BigFree is offline BigFree

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time: 21:31
  Old Post 18-10-2003 00:43
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The fact is that GCA's "luck" has been astronomical. We have to look at other ways in which they may have found a easy way to change the RNG and not just by reloading or changing builds but by editing a file. We need to ask Firaxis if this is possible and how hard it is to do. Maybe Firaxis won't want to elaborate on how someone could cheat this way, but maybe they could confirm that it could be done. Maybe each team has it's own set of Random numbers it uses and it starts at the begining on every turn. If GCA's was set a long time ago by themselves (cheating), then it would not be neccessary for them to reload or do anything 'weird' to get desirable results turn after turn, which btw, is what they have been getting througout the game.

Arnelos, could you please approach Soren about this?

asleepathewheel is offline asleepathewheel
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 01:06
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What about the various trainers out there, does anyone have any experience with them? I have none. Might be worth checking into at the very least, there might be one that will edit a save's seed or something.

E_T is offline E_T
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 01:21
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If they are editing the Random seed number that is stored in the save file, then the file that Mongoose has and the file that they had played with are 2 separate entities and the results would be different.

E_T

BigFree is offline BigFree

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  Old Post 18-10-2003 01:29
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Not if they edited it one time and are continuing to use the same 'seed', that they weighted in their favor, over and over again.

DeepO is offline DeepO

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  Old Post 18-10-2003 01:43
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bah, how could they edit in the right seed, and keep using that? Sure, there might be seeds that lead to a streak of good luck, but how would you find these? And in the end, such a seed gives bad numbers as well... it won' last for ever, it's (pseudo) random after all.

No, IMHO it also looks like they change the order of attacks, if they cheat. And yes, they might for instance use that to keep us from killing any unit on defense with a NM. That doesn't mean that none of their units die, as they could lose e.g. swords against MIs. And, as we don't know how many of their units have died, the above calculations aren't final either... it assumes none of their units died.

I wouldn't be surprised if this all turns out to be paranoia, and simply good luck on their part...

DeepO

E_T is offline E_T
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 02:06
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I agree, as WE don't know what is still there in Algalord. We won't know that unitl we pass the save on had have CFC investigate that city again will we know the full extent.

As far as we know, they could have had other units arrive AFTER that last investigation and that is why we had more units die.

E_T

asleepathewheel is offline asleepathewheel
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 03:20
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quote:
Originally posted by DeepO
bah, how could they edit in the right seed, and keep using that? Sure, there might be seeds that lead to a streak of good luck, but how would you find these? And in the end, such a seed gives bad numbers as well... it won' last for ever, it's (pseudo) random after all.


Well, there are trainers out there. And there's a lot of info we're sitting on that other teams possibly don't know about, ie. the galley fortify trick. Perhaps one of them knows how to unlock it? I don't know, idle speculation, something I'm good at

quote:
Originally posted by DeepO
That doesn't mean that none of their units die, as they could lose e.g. swords against MIs. And, as we don't know how many of their units have died, the above calculations aren't final either... it assumes none of their units died.


If they lost units against our mi, then they would have been total defeats, as we didn't, iirc have injured MI. not to mention no promotions. granted, both are easily possible.

wervdon is offline wervdon
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Nov 2001
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 03:37
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I highly doubt there is a "table" of pre-generated random #'s in the save, its actually much, much easier to do than that.

There are two functions typically used for random #'s in C.

srand() and rand().

srand will "seed" the random # generator, and rand() will return a random value.

Doing this:
srand(some integer)
rand()
rand()
....
as many times as you want

will always give you the same sequence of random #'s if you srand() with the same value.

Ussually, to make things unpredictable, srand() is called with the current time at the start of a program......however for debugging purposes programmers often "save" this value to the file so they can reliably reproduce a given sequence of events.

So the easiest way to generate a random sequence of #'s that repeats, and only having to save one value to the save is this:

srand(time) .... one time only

x = rand()
srand(x)
y = rand()
srand(y)
etc.

Then when you save the game, you just save the last random # generated......... See no table involved

This obviously will only guarantee the same sequence of #'s comes out of the calls to rand() though, which is why changing the sequence of events (if those events do a call to rand()) changes outcomes.


Edit:
Oh and I think that rand() automatically does an srand() with the # it generated as part of how it works, so strictly speaking you don't actually have to implicitly call srand() every time you call rand() to do this, but instead just keep track of the last # rand() generated and save that in the save, and when you reload use that value instead of the time to reseed the srand() call.

MrWhereItsAt is offline MrWhereItsAt
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 03:56
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Bloody hell! If this sort of collaborative effort was being put into the game itself...

vondrack's point is one I have touched on myself a few times in my thoughts - there is at this stage only a limited number of different permutations of orders that GCA can carry out to alter battle results - but then again they aren't winning every battle, hence some of our units are merely injured and not killed after their attacks.

What I would like to know is how was this programming knowledge of Civ3 gleaned? Has someone done some hacking in the past, have Firaxis given up their secrets or are these just common practices in the game programming world? Is it possible we are just guessing at all of this?

DeepO is offline DeepO

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  Old Post 18-10-2003 04:04
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wervdon, the rand() function uses the algorithm as described above, IIRC it is even possible to change the primes if you want to. Many developers write their own RNGs, though, which basically do the same thing.

And yes indeed (if I understand you correctly), calling srand only puts the last number generated to the seed, rand() uses this number to calculate the next.

Sleepy, I realize that for any deaths on their part, they should be instant deaths... I'm not saying that is the case, but it is possible, it's just one of the possibilities which also leads to a certain percentage chance. So in order to see what we see, there are more possibilities than so far calculated, meaning that the incredible luck GCA seems to have is a bit less than reported. I still consider them real lucky, though, it's just not enough proof...

As to trainers: I don't have any clue what is available for civ... in principle it could of course be perfectly possible that the save file is hacked in such a way that everything is possible... but using a trainer is a big step for a team, it differs a lot from simply reloading if you don't like the outcome of a battle.

DeepO

Theseus is offline Theseus

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Apr 2002
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 04:04
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I've just been catching up...

Do I not understand correctly? Did we not know GCA's force composition at AL? If so, then vondrack is correct that there are a limited number of permutations, and I am hard put to believe that simply messing about with order of attack would produce the result we have seen...

Doesn;t that then mean that the seed has been altered?

And doesn't that mean that Mongoose will be unable to replicate?

DeepO is offline DeepO

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  Old Post 18-10-2003 04:06
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MWIA, do you mean the stuff about the RNG algorithms? basic programming knowledge... I think you would even find it on MSDN (as Firaxis uses Visual C, IIRC).

DeepO

wervdon is offline wervdon
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 04:12
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DeepO's right, the stuff I posted about rand() was based on no knowledge on civ3, but just on general knowledge on how C programming works.

DeepO is offline DeepO

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  Old Post 18-10-2003 04:16
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BTW, for those interested (couldn't help myself):
http://www.ciphersbyritter.com/RES/RNGENS.HTM

z(i+1) = 16807*z(i) mod 2^31 - 1
Is the one I remembered... the values can change, however.

DeepO

Arnelos is offline Arnelos
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 04:18
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quote:
Originally posted by BigFree
Arnelos, could you please approach Soren about this?


I do not have contact information for him, nor do I believe I'm the proper person to approach him about this, given that I actually know very little about programming. I'm sure we have people on our team far more knowledgable on HOW cheating was accomplished. What I've been doing is simply establishing by probability (something I do know a thing or two about) that it likely DID happen.

Shiber is offline Shiber
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 04:37
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quote:
Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt
Bloody hell! If this sort of collaborative effort was being put into the game itself...


Math brings people together

Beta is offline Beta

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  Old Post 18-10-2003 04:40 Visit Beta<br><a href=/members><img src=/forums/images/lifer-icon.gif border=0></a><BR>'s homepage!
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Arnelos - a huge tip of the cap to you and the others in this thread for your analyses, time and effort.

Excellent stuff!!

(and I followed most of it, despite my university stats and probability course now being ancient history. )

E_T is offline E_T
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  Old Post 18-10-2003 06:34
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quote:
Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt
Bloody hell! If this sort of collaborative effort was being put into the game itself...


It's because we are diverse in our knowledge of the game. Even, I suspect, some of the programers of the game aren't aware of aspects of other parts of the game.

quote:

vondrack's point is one I have touched on myself a few times in my thoughts - there is at this stage only a limited number of different permutations of orders that GCA can carry out to alter battle results - but then again they aren't winning every battle, hence some of our units are merely injured and not killed after their attacks.


True, there are a limited number, but that, in combination with things that might effect the RNG COULD give you enough wins to really damage an opponent and not lose too many units.

But Until we KNOW what is still in Algalord and what condition, can we have a better idea as to what had happened.

quote:

What I would like to know is how was this programming knowledge of Civ3 gleaned? Has someone done some hacking in the past, have Firaxis given up their secrets or are these just common practices in the game programming world? Is it possible we are just guessing at all of this?


Well, there are versions of the game available that don't require the CD (the No CD Crack). It's possible, that someone has also done enough Disassembly/resourcing to figure out some of the combat routines. IF you know exactly how it works, then you can possibly predict how a battle will turn out. With that, you can take insane chances (spear attacking Immortal) and know that you have a better than average chance of winning.

If you had a way to crack into the game, and had the next 10 probibilities printed on the screen, you would know if you can attack with just a Vet or maybe a Elite and even get promotions and GL's. But that is all suppositions. But yes, it is possible, you just have to have the right tools to be able to do it.

E_T

BigFree is offline BigFree

Emperor
Acampo, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:31
  Old Post 18-10-2003 13:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Arnelos


I do not have contact information for him, nor do I believe I'm the proper person to approach him about this, given that I actually know very little about programming. I'm sure we have people on our team far more knowledgable on HOW cheating was accomplished. What I've been doing is simply establishing by probability (something I do know a thing or two about) that it likely DID happen.


Is there anyone willing to approach Firaxis, or Soren about this topic?

The reason I suggested that Arnelos do it is that we had one person making the contacts and doing the communications to both mongoose and Soren about the same thing basically.

nye, Do you have personal contacts as Firaxis that you can ask about this?

Shiber is offline Shiber
Emperor
Haifa, Israel
Jul 2002
time: 07:31
  Old Post 18-10-2003 15:01
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AFAIK noone has done any serious hacking to the game itself, only to maps and such (to create the unofficial map editors).
Creating a No CD patch does not really involve any dwelving into the game's code. As for combat mechanics, they were figured out from guesstimates and empiric research. The rest (how RNGs work, probabilities and the like) is just math and computer science.

An actual game trainer, if one exists for Civ3, would directly access the memory addresses that the game uses to alter results, and will require some cracking work to do. If one is created that doesn't leave any marks on PBEM games, then it's probably the end of the Civ3 PBEM community.

DeepO is offline DeepO

Emperor
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:31
  Old Post 18-10-2003 18:36
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I've been looking around for trainers on Civ (best source I found was CFC's cheat page), but can't find anything substantial... the most complex thing seems to be Gramphos' tool. Granted, you can just remove units from a save using this... no need to figure out any combat routines, or mess with RNG seeds.

DeepO

 
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