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CharlesBHoff
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el paso texas
May 2002
time: 05:32
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I have than Uncled who service in the Korean War an sent 1 year in vietman. There was than young know it all second liet just out of West Point who was telling him we are wining the war against the Vietcong as the number of attack is going down. My Uncle who was than Master Sergeant said you are wrong sir, the Vietcong is up to something. Then the Tect Offense happen. The Veitcong won than victory against us when we have to carpect bomb the old Imperial Palace because after 1 month of fighting we where unable to recaptive it from then, the palace was than inportant cultural building of the Vietman people of both side we destory.
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HershOstropoler
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I told you the whole thing would be a bonanza for terrorists. That is just evolving now, IMO. That there is a guerilla war on top of this is a bit surprising, but related to the fight at Baghdad that didn't happen.
And where did I say anything about mass uprisings? You'll leave Iraq as a matter of attrition, not uprisings.
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HershOstropoler
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quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
I was just lumping the different versions of the "doom will befall us" together, |
You can lump anything you want as long as you don't wrongly attribute it to me.
As for attrition and terrorism, I said we're pretty much at the starting point.
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CharlesBHoff
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el paso texas
May 2002
time: 05:32
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quote:
Originally posted by Ted Striker
The starting point, just like the implosion of the housing bubble huh Master Predictor?
The attition is entering its ending phases
Terrorism is at the midpoint |
ARE YOU SMOKEING POT!!!
This is only starting and the only way it is going to end is to have Idiot Bush defeat at poll. The election will have to be run by the UN to make sure Bush doesnot do the illegal stuff
he did to steal the election in 2000. Armed troop from the UN
will enter America in early 2004 to disarm all America troop and state and local police. No compute ballot or touch screen voteing will allow, only paper ballot will be allow as they are easier to audit than computer ballot which can be hack or program by their manufactor to have all vote goes to the one they want to win.
Then when Dean win we pull out of Iraq as we have no bussiness being there.
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East Street Trader
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London, United Kingdom
Jun 2000
time: 05:32
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Here's a doom for you.
The USA continues to throw its weight around. Whenever the leaders of another nation state oppose it Mr Bush and his senior people respond as they did with France, belittling their opponents and insulting them.
Such leaders reflect that if the USA throws its military weight around in their own neck of the woods it will be impossible to do anything about it.
So they do what threatened nations have always done, they seek allies and enter mutual protection treaties. And they put more resources into arms.
Let us say that the alliance created to counter the dominance of the USA starts to look like a credible military counter-balance. History shows us what Mr Bush will do. He will spend more on arms and he will talk up the dangers which the anti USA alliance poses.
It is not difficult to describe this pattern as it is the precise pattern which has preceded major wars since the advent of the nation state.
When the arms race between the USA and the USSR did not, uniquely I think, end in war I took it as a sign that we had, at last, begun to understand the danger posed by conflict between nation states and the destructiveness of modern weapons.
But I now believe that this nacent realisation was influenced by the memory which was still then relatively fresh of the two world wars. A generation on it is noticeable that memories have faded. Young people are vastly more brash about war. They did not, of course, fight in those wars themselves, but they have also not been brought up in families where both their father and their grandfather did.
So this is how doom arrives. We delude ourselves into thinking that being efficient about war is a good idea. Two power blocks feel threatened and jealous and go in for an arms race which reinforces their fears. Politicians gain popularity and power by talking up people's fears and insecurities. War comes. Not a gunboat war but one between well matched opponents. Efficient soldiers now get to use the weapons they have available. Nuclear winter follows and the earth becomes just one more barren planet.
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:32
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quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
The basic gist is a crock of ****, but I didn't read that this was derived from military sources. If so, it certainly wasn't top level, because we still have people shaped by Vietnam and the immediate post-Vietnam era, and they're loath to focus on attrition rates or hard body count claims. I smell chickenhawk, not professional warfighter. |
Burns didnt give his source, at least in the quote I saw. He did say that this was the briefing Bush received in Baghdad on Thanksgiving, so if Burns is accurate then it wasnt Wolfie or Feith or Rummy giving the briefing since none of them was in Baghdad at the time. It was either a military guy or Bremer.
And the 5000 figure for the base number of fighters is definitely from Centcom. I beleive Sanchez briefed to that effect a couple of weeks ago. The 1100 down doesnt seem that wild, if youve been following the Centcom press releases - which may be wrong, but if they are its the military, not the neocons in DC (though i suppose the neocons could be pressing the brass for this) Of course neither number tells anything about new recruitment for the Baathists.
Whats strikingly different from Viet Nam is the manner of release - no official body counts, instead a leak to a hawkish reporter. So they can deny being in the body count game, yet still get their story out.
In any case, it doesnt seem unreasonable to release something like this, since US casualties have been held up as evidence we're losing.
I also dont see this as quite parallel to Viet Nam. The math of attrition didnt work in Viet Nam, cause we couldnt inflict enough casualties in a year to offset the intake of new conscripts in North Viet Nam. So we eventully did break the VC (IIUC) but not the NVA. In Iraq its not clear there is any regular intake of new insurgents, and no equivalent to the NVA.
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:32
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heres something else for y'all. Centcom release. via rantburg.
"KIRKUK, Iraq –In a joint operation with Iraqi security forces the 173rd Airborne Brigade, part of Task Force Ironhorse completed Operation Bayonet Lightning.
This was a cooperative brigade-wide operation, capitalizing on the successful joint patrols conducted by 173rd soldiers, Iraqi Civil Defense Corps and the Iraqi Police. All of the forces worked together and employed raids to capture targeted former regime elements that, with their attempts of destabilization, are working against the Iraqi people.
Twenty-six individuals were captured, including three targeted individuals. All of the captured are suspected of being members of Fedayeen Saddam. In addition, soldiers located and confiscated 62 AK-47 assault rifles, 200 rounds of AK-47 ammunition, one rocket propelled grenade launcher and two improvised explosive device making kits."
takeaway points
1. 26 individuals captured. Consistent with 1100 in the last month.
2. All fedayeen Saddam - IE no new recruits among ordinary Iraqis
3. Iraqi forces participating.
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:32
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heres more
"During the past 24 hours, the 82nd Airborne Division and subordinate units have conducted 173 patrols, including nine joint patrols with the Iraqi Border Guard and Iraqi police. During these operations, 10 enemy personnel were captured. There were no U.S. casualties.
Elementd of 3rd Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division successfully conducted three simultaneous cordon and searches in Fallujah. These operations targeted members of the Jasmin anti-Coalition cell. Forces captured five individuals and took them into custody for questioning.
Elements also conducted a cordon and search to capture Abu Bilal Al Janabi. He is suspected of financing and aiding anti-coalition activities, paying rewards for attacks against Coalition forces, and has been implicated in the participation of anti-coalition events in Fallujah. The targeted individual was captured during the mission. He was taken into custody for questioning.
In 1st Brigade, 1st Infantry Division’s area of operations, elements discovered a large cache north of Khalidiyah. The cache contained 650 plastic Anti-Tank mines, 400 Anti-Personnel mines, and 280 Rocket Propelled Gernade (RPG) warheads, RPG fuel rods, and propellant as well as 10 Anti-Tank missiles, and various small arms and demolitions."
1. 10 more capture
2. large munitions cache captured.
At some point the baddies run out of ammo. In Nam that didnt happen cause they brought in more via the Ho Chi Minh trail, and NV imported more from China and Russia, and built its own in underground factories. VN was VERY MUCH a war of logistics, IIUC. Where is the Baathist Ho Chi Minh trail?
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Kuciwalker
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of Schmooism
Feb 2001
time: 00:32
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quote:
Originally posted by East Street Trader
Here's a doom for you.
The USA continues to throw its weight around. Whenever the leaders of another nation state oppose it Mr Bush and his senior people respond as they did with France, belittling their opponents and insulting them.
Such leaders reflect that if the USA throws its military weight around in their own neck of the woods it will be impossible to do anything about it.
So they do what threatened nations have always done, they seek allies and enter mutual protection treaties. And they put more resources into arms.
Let us say that the alliance created to counter the dominance of the USA starts to look like a credible military counter-balance. History shows us what Mr Bush will do. He will spend more on arms and he will talk up the dangers which the anti USA alliance poses.
It is not difficult to describe this pattern as it is the precise pattern which has preceded major wars since the advent of the nation state.
When the arms race between the USA and the USSR did not, uniquely I think, end in war I took it as a sign that we had, at last, begun to understand the danger posed by conflict between nation states and the destructiveness of modern weapons.
But I now believe that this nacent realisation was influenced by the memory which was still then relatively fresh of the two world wars. A generation on it is noticeable that memories have faded. Young people are vastly more brash about war. They did not, of course, fight in those wars themselves, but they have also not been brought up in families where both their father and their grandfather did.
So this is how doom arrives. We delude ourselves into thinking that being efficient about war is a good idea. Two power blocks feel threatened and jealous and go in for an arms race which reinforces their fears. Politicians gain popularity and power by talking up people's fears and insecurities. War comes. Not a gunboat war but one between well matched opponents. Efficient soldiers now get to use the weapons they have available. Nuclear winter follows and the earth becomes just one more barren planet. |
We survived the Cold War. Nuclear war between superpowers just isn't going to happen. The only prospective superpower is China, and I just don't see war with China as ever happening.
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03-12-2003 07:31
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