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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:33
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quote:
Even stronger? Those are both very socially conservative states and the races there will likely be decided on social issues. |
Why do you say that? Both Ohio and WV were tight races in 2000. Jobs usually determine who wins, and steel is very imporant in both states.
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The latest polls, and they were before Saddam's capture, Bush had a huge lead in Ohio in a potential matchup: 57-38 |
IIRC, those polls were taken in September. That doesn't tell you anything. Most people had little idea of who Dean was at the time, and national numbers for Bush vs. Dean were comparable. More recent national polls (like the CNN one a little while ago) show the gap to be much smaller.
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It isn't clear that a trade war will break out, and if it does how long it will take it to break out, and if longer peace can be negotiated, and with the EU and Japan on our side I doubt there is much the WTO can do. |
I doubt that. If a country like China tells us that we're gonna have problems exporting to them until the farm subsidies go, just about every export industry we have will be up in arms.
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Moreover, those farming states again are extremely socially conservative and it is highly unlikely many would be competetive under any circumstance. |
The midwest isn't that socially conservative. Not anything like that South, anyways. That's why Dems are perfectly competitive there, even have advanges in places like Iowa. And if farm subsidies go, so will their support for Shrub.
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These people ought to look more at empirical evidence, and it doesn't look like the nuclear issue will be that big of a deal, BUsh is ahead there by a huge margin.
Also interesting from the current polling is Bush's 25 point lead in New Hampshire, where Dean has gotten the most exposure, showing just how well Dean's message is getting across to voters. |
Links to polls?
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CerberusIV
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Can someone explain to a non-American whether it makes any difference who the Democrat candidate will be.
As I understand it any of the Dems will have spent most of their funding to get the party nomination. GWB is a shoe-in for the Repub nomination so just at the point his challenger is starting to scrabble around for the cash to run the actual presidential campaign Bush will be unlocking his $100 million campaign piggy bank.
Whatever the Dem candidate's message is - who is actually going to hear it in the deluge of the Bush campaign message?
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CerberusIV
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Thanks SpencerH.
Can the Dems afford a campaign to match what the Bush team will run?
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Lancer
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Oregon Coast, USA! or Bohol, Philippines!
Apr 1999
time: 05:33
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"I really appreciate how he uses his Christianity when it's popular, and puts it aside when it is not. Bush doesn't care what people think about his faith, if they disagree, they just have to deal with it. I would rather he just not try to pander to these votes, it would give me more respect for what Dean believes. Now he's just a weathercock."
Ben, I see this as the biggest hole in Dean's bucket. Nobody wants another fella who will wait on the polls before acting.
"Yes you are right Horsie. Most of us are men, and a good number of us are white men. Dean is interested in appealling to Democrats, and only 22% of white men are registered Democrats."
Real men don't vote democrat...
Btw, nobody responded to my previous post. Should I take it that it's easier to ignore than debate with? 
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Boris Godunov
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Portland, OR
Aug 2001
time: 00:33
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quote:
Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Early leads can still disappear in a puff of smoke. Remember Gary Hart? |
But he didn't have the money.
No candidate who led in money at this point in the race has failed to get the nomination since 1976. Dean is so far ahead fiscally that I think he's virtually bagged it. Only Clark has a reasonable chance of catching up, and I think it's a longshot.
Latest polls show Dean ahead in Iowa now, outpacing Gephardt by several points. He continues to lead strongly in New Hampshire, and Kerry's dropped to third, which spells his death knell.
IMO, Dean wins the Iowa caucuses, which stops Gephardt dead. He then goes on to mop up in NH, so Kerry's done. Clark will use his 2nd place finish to pick up strength and will win SC. His winning SC will kill Leiberman and Edwards, as that would be their only hope of staying in the race.
But it's over after that, because Dean will win enough of the primaries on Super Tuesday to end all serious contention.
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Guynemer
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Here's another scenario, Boris:
After the dust settles following SC, the other candidates and power brokers unify behind Clark. It's not enough to prevent Dean from winning most of the delegates, but he's close.
Fast forward to the convention, and the superdelegates vote overwhelming in favor of Clark, giving him the edge and the nomination.
--Would there be a revolt on the convention floor?
--Would Clark ask Dean to be his VP? Would Dean accept?
--Would the Democratic party be toast, or would they unify for the sole purpose of beating Bush?
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All times are GMT. The time now is 05:33.
Apolyton Time is 00:33. |
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09-01-2004 11:37
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