09-02-2004 00:43									#1
	Newspaper: Al-Qaida Has Suitcase Nukes Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Everyone:

I ran across this article while perusing the wires and figured some folks at 'Poly might be interested in debating the possible ramifications of this report, should it turn out to be true. The article is posted below; contribute to this thread as you see fit after reading it.

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quote: CAIRO (Reuters) — A pan-Arab newspaper said Sunday that the al Qaeda organization led by Osama bin Laden bought tactical nuclear weapons from Ukraine in 1998 and is storing them in safe places for possible use. There was no independent corroboration of the report, which appeared in the newspaper al-Hayat under an Islamabad dateline and cited sources close to al Qaeda, which the United States blames for the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. The newspaper said al Qaeda bought the weapons in suitcases in a deal arranged when Ukrainian scientists visited the Afghan city of Kandahar in 1998. The city was then a stronghold of the Taliban movement, which was allied with al Qaeda. Al Qaeda would use the weapons only inside the United States or if the group faced a "crushing blow" which threatened its existence, such as the use of nuclear or chemical weapons against its fighters, the paper quoted its sources as saying. Ukraine inherited nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union but in 1994 it agreed to send 1,900 nuclear warheads to Russia and sign up to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. After the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, a former Russian National Security Adviser, Alexander Lebed, said that up to 100 portable suitcase-sized bombs were unaccounted for. Moscow has denied such weapons existed. Lebed said each one was equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT and could kill as many as 100,000 people. Al-Hayat did not say how many weapons al Qaeda bought or say who exactly had provided them. A Pakistani government official said Secretary of State Colin Powell was expected to visit Islamabad soon to discuss nuclear proliferation, after a top scientist there admitted passing atomic program secrets to third parties. The United States has repeatedly said its worst fear is that a group like al Qaeda might obtain access to weapons of mass destruction and use them against the American people.

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I don't even want to think about the possibilities of tactical nukes going off within the United States, for I fear it would result in a horror that would extend far beyond our borders, if you get my drift.

But that said, why does the Russian government deny the existence of suitcase nukes? I thought it was common knowledge that such devices do exist?

On a final note, I'm beginning to think the nuclear genie can no longer be contained to the "big" powers. A lot of of nations and terror groups are going to end up with them, or similar WMDs, and the rest of the world is simply going to have to learn to live with it. No, I don't like the idea myself, but what can be done about it? Nothing other than improving one's own security, that's about it.

Gatekeeper

	09-02-2004 00:44									#2
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bullshit.

they would have used them by now

	09-02-2004 00:46									#3
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Some of you Americans are really paranoid. Nuclear suticases owned by Al-Qaeda

	09-02-2004 00:48									#4
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**shrug** That's my thought, too, Dissident. After all, their best shot would have been before Sept. 11, 2001. But, then again, we're talking about trying to fathom the minds of Osama bin Laden, et al.

But consider Pakistan's nuke scientists. They took it upon themselves to export their knowledget to Libya, Iran and North Korea. Why couldn't the Ukrainian scientists have done the same thing? It's all about the money and prestige, not the ramifications down the road, for these sort of folks.

Gatekeeper

	09-02-2004 00:49									#5
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Phew, it's a good thing they're dismantling their nukes and making them into suitcases.

I wonder how they incorporate all the parts though? And the uranium, how would that be used in a suitcase?

	09-02-2004 00:51									#6
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Obstructor:

This is a foreign newspaper making the report. How does that translate into Americans being overly paranoid about suitcase nukes? Furthermore, perhaps a bit of paranoia after Sept. 11, 2001, is to be expected and, since you hail from Croatia, I'd think you'd be somewhat familiar with it as well.

Gatekeeper

	09-02-2004 00:58									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper Obstructor: This is a foreign newspaper making the report. How does that translate into Americans being overly paranoid about suitcase nukes? Furthermore, perhaps a bit of paranoia after Sept. 11, 2001, is to be expected and, since you hail from Croatia, I'd think you'd be somewhat familiar with it as well. Gatekeeper

Sorry - didn`t notice the fact it is foreign - but it is still stupid.

Mass destruction weapons can`t be found on every corner despite what you government thinks.

I respect a bit of paranoia but this si too much.

And about the fact I am Croatia -
well I am form country that suffered much more casulties than you September 11 in recent war, and I am not paranoid about the fact that Ultraradicals, in our former enemy state, have won 28 percent of the votes on general elections solely on program that includes creating Great Serbia and butchering Croats and Moslems.

Not a bit afraid or paranoid.

	09-02-2004 01:17									#8
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Among the fears the U.S. government has is that the likes of al-Qaida *MAY* acquire WMDs. Insofar as I know, they've yet to state outright that al-Qaida *DOES HAVE* such capabilities (if they did, you can bet your booties they'd be marching into Pakistan's border regions quite openly). Again, it's a foreign newspaper making the claim, not the U.S. government, Obstructor.

Regarding paranoia, my point was simple: People who have suffered from terrorism and/or wars generally are more paranoid afterwards, and rightly so in many cases. Croats should keep an eye on developments in Serbia, as America and its allies should keep the pressure on al-Qaida, et al.

Gatekeeper

	09-02-2004 01:19									#9
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RUNF OR YOU R LIVESS!!!!!!!$!!

	09-02-2004 01:22									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper Again, it's a foreign newspaper making the claim, not the U.S. government, Obstructor.

So Iraq was invaded by foreign newspapers then? On behalf of their claims not US ones' And they conducted this agression?
EDIT: I didn`t mean tha USA invaded Iraq because of Al-Qaeda.

	09-02-2004 01:24									#11
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A suitcase nuke, with a lovely colour-coordinated SAM hand luggage bag!

	09-02-2004 01:29									#12
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Don't turn this into an America-is-evil thread, Obstructor. I personally get tired of the one-dimensional anti-Americans along with the America-can-do-no-wrong crowd.

This thread is meant to discuss the possible ramifications of the report in the pan-Arab newspaper, namely the possibility (fact, according to the report) that al-Qaida has suitcase nukes. If you wish to discuss the wider role of America in the post-Sept. 11, 2001, world, feel free to do so in a thread of your own creation.

Gatekeeper

	09-02-2004 01:30									#13
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quote: Newspaper: Al-Qaida Has Suitcase Nukes

* Eli sincerely thanks to all the Arabs that live near Tel Aviv, thus decreasing the chances Al Quaeda nukes the city.

	09-02-2004 01:31									#14
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Again, if they had them they would have used at least one or two of them by now. Look how badly they were damaged in Afghanistan. Surely if there had been a time to play their ace card, it would have been at the time they were being driven out of their base country, two years ago.

The scientist who sold Pakistani secrets did so out of misguided ideology, at least in the case of his dealings with Iran and Libya. It would be very unlikely for a Ukranian to be sympatico with Islamic extremists. A Ukranian scientist would also have to consider how disappointed big brother Russia would be if Ukranians were found to be selling Russian weapons.

	09-02-2004 01:33									#15
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Well articles like this one will just increase chances that your current president gets another mandate and continues his reckless politics. And America is not evil - just its current government.

	09-02-2004 01:35									#16
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I heard about this a maybe a year ago. According to that radio program, the Russian Mafia had gotten ahold of the nukes, and had indeed sold a few to Al-Queda -- after replacing the fissionable material with something considerably less hazardous.

They then proceeded to **** themselves laughing while counting their millions.

	09-02-2004 01:36									#17
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Obviously the potential usage of a suiycase nuke in any big city (London, NYC, Berlin, Paris) would be horrifying to the extreme.

But I agree that if the enemy were going to play the trump card, they would have made use of it by now...

	09-02-2004 01:42									#18
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and I have serious doubts how much damage a suitcase nuke can do. Does anyone know how many kilotons that is?

Unless you are near it, you are unlikely to be affected by it. The cleanup would be very costly though. And some radiation exposure will not be avoidable.

But you will live on.

	09-02-2004 01:46									#19
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Whoever wrote this article doesn't know much about nukes. AFAIK the smallest nuclear demolition charges weigh about 80 kilos. One might fit into a suitcase but you would have to do a lot of bodybuilding to carry a suitcase weighing that much through customs with one hand.

	09-02-2004 01:48									#20
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I believe these devices exist, are in the hands of terrorists and will be used in the future.

It is only a matter of time.

	09-02-2004 01:56									#21
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quote: Originally posted by obstructor Some of you Americans are really paranoid. Nuclear suticases owned by Al-Qaeda

Note the news agency is Reuters.

	09-02-2004 01:58									#22
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Duck And Cover!
Then youŽll be safe.

	09-02-2004 01:59									#23
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Note the news agency is Reuters.

As you can see some psots below I didn`t notice it immediately

	09-02-2004 02:03									#24
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quote: Originally posted by obstructor As you can see some psots below I didn`t notice it immediately

Note to self: read thread before replying to posts near the beginning.

	09-02-2004 02:07									#25
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Note to self: read thread before replying to posts near the beginning.

Agree (didn`t read first post careful enough )

	09-02-2004 02:12									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident and I have serious doubts how much damage a suitcase nuke can do. Does anyone know how many kilotons that is? Unless you are near it, you are unlikely to be affected by it. The cleanup would be very costly though. And some radiation exposure will not be avoidable. But you will live on.

OK, you can shield me from the blast!

It's a nuke for hade's sake!

While not a 20 megaton city-breaker, it can still flatten a good area!

	09-02-2004 02:12									#27
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quote: Originally posted by CerberusIV Whoever wrote this article doesn't know much about nukes. AFAIK the smallest nuclear demolition charges weigh about 80 kilos. One might fit into a suitcase but you would have to do a lot of bodybuilding to carry a suitcase weighing that much through customs with one hand.

Customs?

Tons of illegal drugs are smuggled into America each year.

	09-02-2004 02:13									#28
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quote: Originally posted by obstructor Some of you Americans are really paranoid. Nuclear suticases owned by Al-Qaeda

Some of you Americans are really paranoid. Trained muslims simultaniously hijacking many aircraft in the US and flying them into buildings as part of an Al-Qaeda operation

	09-02-2004 02:16									#29
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quote: Suitcase Nukes A "suitcase" bomb is a very compact and portable nuclear weapon and could have the dimensions of 60 x 40 x 20 centimeters or 24 x 16 x 8 inches. The smallest possible bomb-like object would be a single critical mass of plutonium (or U-233) at maximum density under normal conditions. The Pu-239 weighs 10.5 kg and is 10.1 cm across. It doesn't take much more than a single critical mass to cause significant explosions ranging from 10-20 tons. These types of weapons can also be as big as two footlockers. The warhead consists of a tube with two pieces of uranium, which, when rammed together, would cause a blast. Some sort of firing unit and a device that would need to be decoded to cause detonation may be included in the "suitcase." Another portable weapon is a "backpack" bomb. The Soviet nuclear backpack system was made in the 1960s for use against NATO targets in time of war and consists of three "coffee can-sized" aluminum canisters in a bag. All three must be connected to make a single unit in order to explode. The detonator is about 6 inches long. It has a 3-to-5 kiloton yield, depending on the efficiency of the explosion. It's kept powered during storage by a battery line connected to the canisters.

http://www.nationalterroralert.com/...uitcasenuke.htm

That's a lot less than 80 kilos Cerberus

	09-02-2004 03:05									#30
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Even if suitcase nukes actually exist, they'll be well past their sell-by date by now.

They could flatten a city block, and severely damage the surrounding area. If the terrorists wanted to kill as many people as possible, they'd probably try to blow up the Superbowl or a very busy shopping area.

Were I a terrorist leader, I'd not bother wasting my precious suitcase nuke on a soft target, slaughtering thousands of people, which would just enrage the rest of the population. It's surely powerful enough to severely damage a military base, or an oil refinery.