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Ben Kenobi
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McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:34
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Canada's Ruling Liberals Fall in Polls, MP Quits
Tue Feb 17, 2:42 PM ET
By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Liberals suffered more aftershocks from a financial scandal on Tuesday when a poll showed their public support had sunk to a 12-year low and a veteran legislator quit the party, saying he had lost confidence in Prime Minister Paul Martin.
Ottawa has been in turmoil since a report last week showed C$100 million ($76 million) in funds designed to promote national unity in French-speaking Quebec had gone instead to advertising firms with close Liberal ties, prompting questions about who knew what and who should take the blame.
The Ipsos-Reid poll for the Globe and Mail newspaper and CTV Television showed support for Liberals fell to 35 percent, down from 39 percent just after the report was released last Tuesday and 48 percent in January.
The last time the Liberals recorded 35 percent public support was in January 1992, when they were in opposition.
Support for the opposition Conservatives rose to 27 percent from 24 percent last week and 19 percent last month. Backing for the left-leaning New Democrats fell to 17 percent from 18 percent last week, compared with 16 percent last month.
Martin, who took power last December, has so far declined to say whether he will put off an election, which aides had earlier tipped for May 10.
The new poll indicates that if the Liberals went for a May vote, they would be returned with a minority government.
Martin has called an inquiry into the scandal, which took place from 1997 to 2001 when he was finance minister under former prime minister and arch-rival Jean Chretien. He has promised to quit if the inquiry shows he was implicated.
The Liberals suffered another blow when legislator John Bryden said he had quit the party and was considering whether to join the Conservatives.
Bryden, 60, said he was not sure the public felt it could trust the Liberals any more and said Martin had badly mishandled the scandal by trying to blame Chretien.
"I have lost confidence in Mr. Martin because he has caused problems inside the Liberal Party," he told a news conference, saying morale in the party was low.
A senior aide to Martin said the prime minister had to balance the need for Canadians to learn more about the scandal with the need to seek a new mandate from the voters.
"If we get it right, the results will speak for themselves. If we get it wrong, the results will still speak for themselves," the aide told Reuters.
The poll showed that 65 percent of voters felt the election should not be held until the inquiry was complete.
"When you get down in the territory of 35 percent, you don't win majorities," Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker told the Globe and Mail.
"I don't think there is anybody now who would be seriously advising (Martin) to go to the polls on this basis, unless he just wants to completely roll the dice."
There are no fixed election dates in Canada and Martin can call a vote when the chances of victory look good. The last possible date for a vote is November 2005.
The Ipsos-Reid poll surveyed 1,055 Canadians from Wednesday to Sunday and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
.......................................................................................
That's an 8 point gap between the Martinite Liberals and a Conservative party without a leader.
Concievably, that gap could be as little as 5 points.
What could change between then and May?
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Ben Kenobi
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McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:34
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JIM BROWN
OTTAWA (CP) - Liberal MP John Bryden quit the party Tuesday, accusing Prime Minister Paul Martin of sowing cynicism, failing to deliver on promised reforms and mishandling the crisis over federal sponsorship spending.
Canadian Press Photo
"It's simply a question that I've lost confidence in Mr. Martin," the Hamilton-area MP told a news conference. "It's very, very important for a leader to set an example for everybody else . . . Unfortunately we now have a party, in my view, that is full of cynicism."
Bryden said he will sit for now as an Independent, but wants to talk to the Conservatives about running for them in the next election.
He was scathing in his criticism of Martin for trying to shift the blame to predecessor Jean Chretien for the sponsorship scandal that saw millions in public funds flow to Liberal-friendly advertising firms.
"I think he's handled it very badly," said Bryden. "He has ducked and tried to let the bricks fly over him and hit Mr. Chretien."
He also condemned Martin for the long-running leadership feud with Chretien that, he said, has robbed Liberals of their idealism and turned the party into nothing but an electoral machine.
"Since the year 2000, as Mr. Martin gradually took over the Liberal party, the Liberal party definitely changed. It is not the party it once was, and I'm sorry about that."
Martin was out of town, attending a family funeral, and had no comment.
Some of his cabinet ministers, however, were quick to deny Bryden's assertions - and to insist that he speaks only for himself.
"Each individual coming into politics has to assess whether he feels comfortable," said Jacques Saada, Liberal House leader in the Commons.
"If he changes his options, that's OK . . . . I respect that and I have no problem."
Human Resources Minister Joe Volpe, who doubles as political minister for Ontario, said he was "disappointed" by Bryden's decision but bears him no ill will.
Volpe also noted that three Conservatives - Scott Brison, John Herron and Keith Martin - have jumped in the opposite direction and want to run for the Liberals in the next election.
"They're all switching to us because they realize the potential . . . a new vision and a new direction," said Volpe.
Senator David Smith, who ran the last three federal election campaigns for Chretien, dismissed talk of a party split and insisted Liberals are overwhelmingly behind Martin.
"I've been as closely associated with Jean Chretien as anyone," said Smith. "But we went through a (leadership) process whereby over 90 per cent of the Liberals at that convention selected Paul Martin."
The Conservatives, clearly caught off guard, gave a mixed reception to Bryden's announcement that he hopes to find a home with them.
"Welcome John, we're glad to have you on board," said MP John Williams, who heads a Commons committee probing the sponsorship scandal.
But colleague Paul Forseth said Bryden must court grassroots Conservatives in his riding, where five others are already competing to carry the party banner in the next election.
"He'll have to win a nomination to sit in our caucus," said Forseth.
Bryden, a three-term MP, had faced a challenge for the Liberal nomination in his riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot from Russ Powers, a local municipal councillor.
Powers has denied that his candidacy was orchestrated by Martin organizers in an effort to dump Bryden, who did not support the prime minister's leadership bid.
But Bryden insisted Tuesday that "there is no doubt individuals like myself have been singled out" by the Martin forces.
"The local Liberal establishment certainly wanted me out, and probably at any cost."
He also dismissed Martin's claim to be the champion of backbench democracy, saying he is not impressed by the prime minister's plan to allow more free votes in the Commons.
Martin doesn't realize the degree of freedom that already existed under Chretien, Bryden contended.
"I never felt there was a democratic deficit. I never had any problem standing up and speaking out (under Chretien) and I was never punished for it."
Bryden has long been known as a maverick in Liberal circles.
Two years ago, he headed an ad-hoc committee of MPs that unsuccessfully urged the government to expand access-to-information law to cover more Crown corporations and agencies.
The issue has come to the fore again with the sponsorship scandal.
Critics say the dubious transactions would have come to light sooner if Crown corporations such as Via Rail and Canada Post were required to release information to the public under the access law.
Bryden has also criticized Transport Minister Tony Valeri, a Martin stalwart, for challenging former heritage minister Sheila Copps for the Liberal nomination in the riding of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
He accused Valeri last month of trying to knock off "a colleague who is much more distinguished than he is."
Copps hinted at one point that she might jump to the NDP if she lost the Liberal nomination, but those close to her say she has since turned her full attention to defeating Valeri.
"This is not going to encourage her to leave," one source said following Bryden's defection.
"There has been so much blood, sweat and tears put into the Hamilton nomination battle."
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...a/liberal_quits
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Ben Kenobi
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McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:34
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Gotta win her own parties nomination first.
THE MARTIN RESPONSE:
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin on Wednesday told his ruling Liberal Party to focus on running the country rather than on a scandal that has shaken the government, members of parliament said.
Legislators emerging from a weekly meeting of the Liberal parliamentary caucus said Martin had stressed the need to stick to the priorities set out two weeks ago in a policy speech to Parliament known as the Speech from the Throne.
"The message was pretty positive. The message is 'Listen, we had a Speech from the Throne, we had an issue, we're dealing with it... our job now is to govern this country'," government minister Denis Coderre told reporters.
Ottawa has been in shock since a report last week showed C$100 million ($75 million) in funds designed to promote national unity in French-speaking Quebec had gone to advertising firms with close ties to the Liberals.
Support for the Liberals has sunk to a 12-year low in opinion polls and on Tuesday a veteran legislator quit the party, saying he had lost confidence in Martin.
Martin -- who took over last December -- has tried to assure Canadians he will get to the bottom of the scandal.
He has called an inquiry into the affair, which took place from 1997 to 2001 when he was finance minister under former Prime Minister Jean Chretien, and he has promised to quit if the inquiry shows he was implicated.
"We have put in place a comprehensive plan to give Canadians the answers they need and I (hope) Canadians will focus on that plan and have confidence in that plan," said Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan.
Martin has not said whether he will put off an election, which aides had earlier tipped for May 10. A poll released on Tuesday showed the Liberals at 35 percent of support, which suggests a May election would result in a minority government.
Later this week Martin plans to visit the western provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan to outline what he is doing to tackle the scandal.
Under fire from the opposition for overspending on an official trip to the Arctic last year, Ottawa also said it was scrapping a planned second trip to the region by Governor-General Adrienne Clarkson, the representative of Queen Elizabeth, Canada's head of state.
Opposition parties accused the government of profligate spending after it was revealed that Clarkson's first trip to the Arctic had cost C$5.3 million -- almost four times as much as had been initially estimated.
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Tingkai
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To find the Northwest Passage
Aug 2001
time: 13:34
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Polls usually swing a lot after a major announcement. What happens ove rthe long run is a different matter.
What could change? The conservatives will lose support after they pick a leader. Electing Harper means they'll lose support everywhere outside of Alberta. Stronach is a joke, pure and simple. The other guy, what's his name? Enough said.
The best case scenario is that the scandal continues to chip away at Liberal support, the new Conservative leader maintains the tory tradition of sticking their foot in the mouth, and the NDP charge up the middle to become the kingmaker in a minority government or even form a minority government.
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FS*
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Through no act of it's own, in fact in spite of itself, the Conservative Party(in all it's convolutions) is in the best position it's seen since 1992, according to the polls.
What a shame the this party currently has no leader and has done little more in the last decade than fall apart.
So the polls say the liberals are in trouble. Would we be any less out on a limb with the other gang? One is corrupt... the other is inept.
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Tingkai
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To find the Northwest Passage
Aug 2001
time: 13:34
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quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
With the Bloc winning 50-60 seats in Quebec?
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The BQ winning 50 seats????
You're dreaming. They'll be lucky to keep what they have.
Quebecers hated Chretien, but the Liberals still took 36 seats there. This time, the Liberals will probably take 45+ seats.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Ain't gonna happen. They'll be sitting behind the Conservatives, Bloc and the Liberals. They might have 20 seats to offer others.
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Nope, the BQ are spent. The Conservatives are in disarray, as always. Harper is distrusted in the east. Stronach is a newbie who will stumble and make numerous gaffes. Clement lacks presence.
Meanwhile, Layton is a highly intelligent politicians with years of experience of being in the media spotlight. He'll be positioned as a dynamic,youthful, but experienced leader.
The NDP will make major gains in the Maritimes, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Layton will win back the NDP supporters in BC. Call it 30+ seats for the NDP.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
The Bloc will be the kingmakers, with 48% of support in Quebec. |
You must be on drugs. The Liberals would never form an alliance with the Bloc. They hate each other with a passion.
The Conservatives will think about forming an Alliance with the Bloc, but in the end, even they will realise that it would be political suicide.
That's why the NDP become the kingmaker. in a Liberal minority government.
If the conservatives win the most seats, but not enough to form a majority then they are screwed. They won't find a dance partner.
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Ben Kenobi
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McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:34
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quote:
The BQ winning 50 seats????
You're dreaming. They'll be lucky to keep what they have.
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Not if they are leading by 8 points over the Liberals. I see 50 seats easy.
Even higher among the francophones.
quote:
Liberals still took 36 seats there. This time, the Liberals will probably take 45+ seats.
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Again, 75 seats, I figure maybe 25 to the Liberals. That's if they don't fall further.
quote:
The Conservatives are in disarray, as always. Harper is distrusted in the east. Stronach is a newbie who will stumble and make numerous gaffes. Clement lacks presence.
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Even in disarray, they draw 27%, which if I recall, is a higher number than they have had in the last election.
So, what will they be when they come together?
Lacks presence? That's a substantive point and reason to distrust Clement. Secondly, who does Ontario fear more? Liberal corruption, or Stephen Harper? No contest.
quote:
The NDP will make major gains in the Maritimes, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Layton will win back the NDP supporters in BC. Call it 30+ seats for the NDP.
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Major gains? They are holding steady. The Bloq and Conservatives will gobble up the Liberal votes. Conservatives in Ontario, and the Bloq in Quebec. Even despite the scandal, they have dropped in BC.
30 seats! We should make a bet. I already have one going that the Conservatives will outpoll the NDP.
Can I have some of what you are smoking?
quote:
If the conservatives win the most seats, but not enough to form a majority then they are screwed. They won't find a dance partner.
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If the Libs and NDP can't get enough to form a minority government what will happen then?
Like I said, we live in interesting times.
All the Bloq and Conservatives need are 150 seats. Give the Bloq 60 and the Conservatives 90 and you have it all together.
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Tingkai
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To find the Northwest Passage
Aug 2001
time: 13:34
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quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Not if they are leading by 8 points over the Liberals. I see 50 seats easy.
Even higher among the francophones.
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Liberal/BQ support comes from different sections of the province so an increase for one side does not necessarily translate into province wide success.
More people voted BQ in the 2000 election compared to 1997, but the number of seats won by the BQ in 2000 actually declined from 1997.
2000 38 seats, 39.8% of the voters
1997 44 seats, 37.9% of voters.
And the Liberals in 2000 won a greater percentage of the votes in Quebec, but ended up with fewer seats than the BQ.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Even in disarray, they draw 27%, which if I recall, is a higher number than they have had in the last election.
So, what will they be when they come together?
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They're supposedly together now.
The conservatives suffer from having inch-deep support.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Lacks presence? That's a substantive point and reason to distrust Clement.
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Politics is more about image than substance. We can all sit around and talk about how it should be about the issues, but on election day, what sways the undecided is image. And they make or break elections.
Why do you think Trudeau won so many elections. It was because he looked like a leader, unlike Joe Who and Robert "fumbling" Stansfield. Same thing with Mulroney. He looked like a better leader than Turner.
This has always been the crucial flaw of the NDP. They spend too much time thinking about issues and not enough time working on selling the leader. With Layton they now have someone with a strong image.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Secondly, who does Ontario fear more? Liberal corruption, or Stephen Harper? No contest.
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You're right. Harper is easily more a threat. 
Seriously though, the conservatives would destroy Canada. It took them 20 years to unite. Imagine how long it would take for them to figure out how to run the country. And we all remember how the conservatives screwed Canada during the 80s.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
30 seats! We should make a bet. I already have one going that the Conservatives will outpoll the NDP.
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Of course the Conservatives will get more seats. The sheep in Alberta always vote conservative. You could run a dog as a Conservative candidate in Alta and the dog would win. So that gives the Conservatives about 25 seats off the bat.
If you want to make it interesting, let's do NDP seats vs Conservatives, not including Alta.
Or who will have more power after the election. I bet the NDP will be the kingmaker in a minority government. I guess you're betting on a Conservative-BQ alliance.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
If the Libs and NDP can't get enough to form a minority government what will happen then?
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It would be up to the Governor-General. Either call an election or let the party with the most seats form a government and operate on a day-by-day basis.
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Ben Kenobi
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McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:34
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Tingkai:
quote:
More people voted BQ in the 2000 election compared to 1997, but the number of seats won by the BQ in 2000 actually declined from 1997.
2000 38 seats, 39.8% of the voters
1997 44 seats, 37.9% of voters.
And the Liberals in 2000 won a greater percentage of the votes in Quebec, but ended up with fewer seats than the BQ.
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True. Hence my comments about the francophones. I don't have access to the breakdown, nor would I trust those numbers given the error margins.
Secondly, look at the percentages. Given the peculiarities of our first past the post system, the percentages matter. If the BQ get 48% of the entire vote in Quebec, it matters quite a bit more than getting 40%. There is less margin for an uneven distribution of voters.
Down in the 30%, small changes produce drastic changes in the number of seats won.
quote:
They're supposedly together now.
The conservatives suffer from having inch-deep support.
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Where? Quebec? The Maritimes? Ontario?
They have just as much support in Ontario as they have across the country. They are above average in the Maritimes.
They are either together or they are not. You can't have your cake and eat it too.
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Why do you think Trudeau won so many elections. It was because he looked like a leader, unlike Joe Who and Robert "fumbling" Stansfield. Same thing with Mulroney. He looked like a better leader than Turner.
This has always been the crucial flaw of the NDP. They spend too much time thinking about issues and not enough time working on selling the leader. With Layton they now have someone with a strong image
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Again, gaging Harper, why does he get a knock for his image? I think he will make a fine PM, better than the Mangler.
I don't think it matters so much, the image of the PM, given Mr. Chretien for the last 10 years. Or perhaps, what matters is not so much the truth, but the image crafted. The problem with crafting an image, and you see this in the states, is that really your support is only skin deep.
quote:
Seriously though, the conservatives would destroy Canada. It took them 20 years to unite. Imagine how long it would take for them to figure out how to run the country. And we all remember how the conservatives screwed Canada during the 80s.
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I think that if the West can forgive the conservatives, so can the East. I think it funny that they list the litany of Conservative sins, now that they are a threat, when the East has been the biggest beneficiary of the Tory policies.
Secondly, it has only been 12 years. So be fair. It took them so long, because of curmudgeons like Joe Who, who has since refused to stand with his former brethren. The time of Clark has ended, and the new party is still trying to get on its feet.
If you want to make it interesting, let's do NDP seats vs Conservatives, not including Alta.
quote:
Or who will have more power after the election. I bet the NDP will be the kingmaker in a minority government. I guess you're betting on a Conservative-BQ alliance.
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Sure. Been trying to work that out myself for the past few hours. Hell of a speculation.
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Ben Kenobi
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McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:34
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Here's what I figure.
Wipeout in Alberta for the Conservatives - 26 seats.
BC is trickier, since they have a combination of liberal, conservatives and NDP.
Currently you have:
Alliance / Liberal / NDP
27 / 5 / 2
I figure, this will go down to 30 3 1
So you have 3 liberal seats, and 1 NDP seat.
So that would be 1 NDP and 56 Conservatives, 3 Liberals
Saskatchewan's a mess.
Figure that I depress the Consevative vote by 50%.
All the former PCs are split evenly between Liberals and NDP.
6. Prince Albert [SK] 26.8% 26.6% 1.0% 22.8%
What a mess! Winning a seat with 26.8% of the vote.
Being very generous to the NDP, that gives them:
7 seats, 4 for the Conservative party, and 3 for the Liberals.
So now you have 8 NDP 6 Liberals and 60 conservatives
Manitoba:
Splitting all the PC between the Liberals and NDP, no depression of the Conservative party, you have:
4 Conservative seats, 6 Liberal seats and 4 NDPs
so you get 12 NDP 12 Liberals and 64 Conservatives
Ontario:
Giving the NDP 25% of the PC vote, and the Conservatives, 75%, you get:
86 16 1 with 86 Liberals, 16 Conservatives, and 1 NDP
So you have 13 NDP, 98 Liberals and 80 Conservatives
Quebec:
Giving the BQ a boost, from the Liberals of 15% we get:
21 LIberals, and 54 Bloc seats
so we now have:
13 NDP 119 Liberals 54 Bloc and 80 Conservatives.
Forecasting PEI:
You get with 75% of the PC vote going to the Conservatives, and 25% of the Liberals to the NDP, alongside 25% of the PCs, you get:
2 Lib, 1 Conservative, 1 NDP
Nova Scotia:
Same combinations:
1 Liberal, 5 NDP and 5 Conservatives
So now we have:
19 NDP 122 LIB 86 CON 54 BQ
New Brunswick, same combinations:
6 conservative seats, 3 liberals, 1 NDP
NFLD
4 Liberals, 1 NDP 1 Conservative
So now you have 93 Conservative, 54 BQ, 129 LIberals and 21 NDP
Northern Territories, 2 NDPs and 1 Liberal.
So in total:
130 Liberals, 23 NDP, 93 Conservatives, 54 BQ
The coalition between Liberals and NDP would have 153 seats, out of 301. The Conservatives and BQ would have 147.
So with a swing of 3 seats, anywhere in Canada, you get a deadlock.
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Tingkai
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To find the Northwest Passage
Aug 2001
time: 13:34
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quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Secondly, look at the percentages. Given the peculiarities of our first past the post system, the percentages matter. If the BQ get 48% of the entire vote in Quebec, it matters quite a bit more than getting 40%. There is less margin for an uneven distribution of voters.
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Depends on who was called during the poll.
Yes, the first past the post system works oddly in Quebec. In the last election, the Libs took 44% of the votes (39.8% for the BQ), but the Libs only got 36 seats.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Where? Quebec? The Maritimes? Ontario?
They have just as much support in Ontario as they have across the country. They are above average in the Maritimes.
They are either together or they are not. You can't have your cake and eat it too.
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You're talking apples and oranges.
Voter support for the conservatives tends to be thin outside of Alberta.
As for the Conservative Party, rumour has it that it is united.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Again, gaging Harper, why does he get a knock for his image? I think he will make a fine PM, better than the Mangler.
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Of course you do. You're a conservative. The rest of the country has doubts.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I don't think it matters so much, the image of the PM, given Mr. Chretien for the last 10 years.
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Chretien has a perfect image for PM, at least for Canadians. They like his self-mocking style. They admire his rags to riches story. His ailment makes him look human. Canadians are distrustful of people who look too sculpted.
More than that, he was low-key, which is what people wanted after the turmoil of the Mulroney years.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Or perhaps, what matters is not so much the truth, but the image crafted.
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What's the truth? Is Bush a war president or a president bent on war. Is Kerry a war hero, or a peacenik traitor?
Whether we like it or not, politics is about style. George Bush was seen as a party animal who didn't know much, but he became the president. Gore was widely acknowledge as being well-versed on policy issues, but he lacked style.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I think that if the West can forgive the conservatives, so can the East. I think it funny that they list the litany of Conservative sins, now that they are a threat, when the East has been the biggest beneficiary of the Tory policies.
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What a pile of crap. The Conservatives bent over backwards for the west. Name one thing that the Conservatives did to harm the west. Nothing. And the east got nothing from the Conservatives other than the GST.
quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Secondly, it has only been 12 years. So be fair. It took them so long, because of curmudgeons like Joe Who, who has since refused to stand with his former brethren.
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No, Manning and the Reform boys started the revolt against the Progressive Conservatives back in the early 80s. So that's 20 years ago.
The reason it took so long was because the PC formed two consecutive majority governments. Instead of working to keep the winning streak going the Reformers, bless their hearts, stabbed the PCs in the back. That helped to end the Tory dynasty (much to everyone's joy).
Manning and the boys then thought they could do it alone. It took them another 10 years to figure out that Canadians would not elect a Reform/CCRAP/Canadian Alliance government (we're smart enough to know that sh1t by any other name still stinks).
Joe Clark stayed loyal to his beliefs and his party. They turned their backs on the PC party, not him.
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Tingkai
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To find the Northwest Passage
Aug 2001
time: 13:34
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quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Early 80's? Last I checked we still had PET then. |
Mulroney wins in 84. The Reformers start up around that time and keep on going hellbent on destroying the PCs from day one of the Mulroney years.
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Apolyton Time is 00:34. |
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19-02-2004 10:45
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