13-03-2004 03:57									#301
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"The whole concept that we can stimulate the economy by reducing the deficit is staggeringly ignorant, IMHO. "

If investors stop investing because there is a fear the depth is getting completely out of control can reducing the deficit by raising taxes actually stimulate the economy.

	13-03-2004 07:01									#302
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Taxes cannot be too low or too hight. I can run for office by saying I willnot have any taxes at all and willnot borrow any money at all. I will just print the money we need to run the government.

Than mature ecomony doesnot grow at 10 % to 15 % per year. Africa nation borrow huge amount of money to built big cities with big builting while not pay attend to rural area where the real wealth was. When England and French left Africa they make sure all bills where fully paid and there where than surplus in each treasurey. The African leader have big ego and want skyscape builting like the west.

	13-03-2004 07:10									#303
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quote: Originally posted by MRT144 Ned, youre an idiot. thats not what hes saying.

MRT 144, I understood Imran to say that deficits and surpluses had no effect whatsoever on triggering recessions or depressions. This statement implies that deficits and surpluses have no stimulative or deflationary effects on the economy.

If you do not agree with this, I would appreciate some explanation.

But note also, that I am not alone in making these assertions. The article I cite agrees with everything I said and supports the thesis with data and history. The people who oppose what I've been saying, primarily Imran, have been making nothing but conclusionary statements with no supporting data, logical argument or reference to learned articles. Even your own post is a simple insult and not an argument.

	13-03-2004 07:15									#304
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Charles, the average ROI for the private economy in the US has been on the order of 12% IIRC since WWII.

Africa states are mostly socialist. 'Nuf said.

	13-03-2004 07:17									#305
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quote: Originally posted by kolpo "The whole concept that we can stimulate the economy by reducing the deficit is staggeringly ignorant, IMHO. " If investors stop investing because there is a fear the depth is getting completely out of control can reducing the deficit by raising taxes actually stimulate the economy.

Investors stop investing if they cannot make money. Period.

	13-03-2004 15:09									#306
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Investors stop investing if they cannot make money. Period.

No they stop investing when they THINK they cannot make money and a deficit that seems out of control can let them think that they cannot make money. I can give many examples of economic grown that followed getting the deficit under control. Out of control deficits have a lot to do with the whole South American economic problems, if Argentinia wouldn't have a deficit at all or would start rapitly reducing it would that restore investor confidence just like it did in Russia where Putin got the deficit under control.

	13-03-2004 20:24									#307
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quote: Originally posted by kolpo No they stop investing when they THINK they cannot make money and a deficit that seems out of control can let them think that they cannot make money. I can give many examples of economic grown that followed getting the deficit under control. Out of control deficits have a lot to do with the whole South American economic problems, if Argentinia wouldn't have a deficit at all or would start rapitly reducing it would that restore investor confidence just like it did in Russia where Putin got the deficit under control.

I don't care how bad the deficit is. When the deficit is particularly bad it usually means that the economy is doing particularly badly. Raising taxes and reducing services almost never makes things better. On the contrary it makes things very bad. Russia is a special case, although it was problematic. Russia is seen as a safe investment because investors are confident that the international community will bail Russia out if it gets in real trouble because of the nukes and all.

	13-03-2004 20:33									#308
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quote: Originally posted by kolpo No they stop investing when they THINK they cannot make money and a deficit that seems out of control can let them think that they cannot make money. I can give many examples of economic grown that followed getting the deficit under control. Out of control deficits have a lot to do with the whole South American economic problems, if Argentinia wouldn't have a deficit at all or would start rapitly reducing it would that restore investor confidence just like it did in Russia where Putin got the deficit under control.

Kolpo, if a deficit is "out of control," perhaps. But that implies inflation and price controls as well. People will not invest when there are price controls.

	13-03-2004 20:34									#309
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Kid, again I find us in agreement once again.

	13-03-2004 20:44									#310
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If you want to look at how well deficit reduction works, look at the IMFs record. The IMFs record is so poor that the only reason that one can assume that they are still recieving funding is that the funding nations have some other interest it the IMF other than improving the economies of economically failing nations.

	13-03-2004 21:14									#311
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious If you want to look at how well deficit reduction works, look at the IMFs record. The IMFs record is so poor that the only reason that one can assume that they are still recieving funding is that the funding nations have some other interest it the IMF other than improving the economies of economically failing nations.

Kid, I assume that the IMF has a screw loose somewhere in their economic theory. They must all be balanced-budget types who insist on throwing economies into depression as the price of a lone.

	14-03-2004 01:32									#312
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Investor only invest when they see future growth even it the present is bad. One of the reason one of the board knick me off was than Traveller Role Playing Game one where they define than rich planet as haveing than demoncrate from of government along with other citera. I disagree haveing than demoncrate government is no guanter of being rich planet. Than well run dictorship can be than rich planet it if is than key link on than wealth trade routes.

	14-03-2004 01:38									#313
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quote: Originally posted by CharlesBHoff Investor only invest when they see future growth even it the present is bad. One of the reason one of the board knick me off was than Traveller Role Playing Game one where they define than rich planet as haveing than demoncrate from of government along with other citera. I disagree haveing than demoncrate government is no guanter of being rich planet. Than well run dictorship can be than rich planet it if is than key link on than wealth trade routes.

The key feature of dictatorships is their inherent resistance to change, in an effort to centrally maintain power. This is bad developmentally, since this results in stagnation of both science and commerce.

Ergo, dictatorships suck comparitively to democracies, for the purposes of wealth generation.

	14-03-2004 02:08									#314
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quote: Originally posted by MrBaggins The key feature of dictatorships is their inherent resistance to change, in an effort to centrally maintain power. This is bad developmentally, since this results in stagnation of both science and commerce. Ergo, dictatorships suck comparitively to democracies, for the purposes of wealth generation.

Democracies in the past didnot honour long term contacts of merant the real creator of wealth. While Depots honour long term contacts of merants than they where more willing to protect craftman and merant on they trade route. Dictatorship doesnot alway mean stagnation in science or commerce. Roman Empire invert the first steam engine to open huge heavy temple door in Egypt. Arab Muslim conquest Egypt learn how to built steam engine to use in mineing to pump out bad air and pump in good air and to drain water from mine. European learn about strean engine in 11th or 12th century use in mineing.

	14-03-2004 02:13									#315
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I have to agree with CharlesBHoff for once. Dictatorship did not prevent most human advances in history, and I don't think it ever will.

Isn't it strange, though, that both CharlesBHoff and Tripledoc are posting at the same time?

	14-03-2004 02:54									#316
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quote: Originally posted by CharlesBHoff Democracies in the past didnot honour long term contacts of merant the real creator of wealth. While Depots honour long term contacts of merants than they where more willing to protect craftman and merant on they trade route. Dictatorship doesnot alway mean stagnation in science or commerce. Roman Empire invert the first steam engine to open huge heavy temple door in Egypt. Arab Muslim conquest Egypt learn how to built steam engine to use in mineing to pump out bad air and pump in good air and to drain water from mine. European learn about strean engine in 11th or 12th century use in mineing.

Rome during the time of it's empire wasn't a true dictatorship, since there was devolved power... it was more akin to an early feudal system.

Egypt also included theocratic elements for the majority of its preeminence.

Whats your point about steam power in specific?

Far more scientific development has occured in democracies than in dictatorships... primarily most of it in the US, Western Europe and some of the Pacific rim, very recently. Democracies...

Dictatorships like those in Iraq (well... not any more) and Africa lag behind technologically and economically. Why?

	14-03-2004 09:42									#317
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quote: I understood Imran to say that deficits and surpluses had no effect whatsoever on triggering recessions or depressions.

By themselves, they don't (there, that's you quote out of context you can use to be a complete idiot and ignore the complexities of the issue). What does is usually the business cycle, which cannot be avoided. States with high deficits also suffer recession. If you want 'proof', the state with the highest debt to GDP in the world is Belgium and they were in a recession just recently. Only fiscal or monatary policy can accelerate or reverse a business cycle trend... sometimes they result in deficits or surpluses.

Of course you totally ignore the fact that if the deficit gets too big, the US will be less attractive as an investment, which will hurt the American economy badly.

	14-03-2004 11:23									#318
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i dont see why we need to run a deficit. if you wanna stimulate the economy, change the reserve requirement, or decrease the rediscount rate, neither of which involve much government action, and definitly doesnt involve increasing interest rates through public sector borrowing. monetary policy is a much more control method of controlling the economy. there is no need for the broad stroke 'deficit spending' which has way more negatives than positives.

	14-03-2004 13:19									#319
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quote: Originally posted by MrBaggins Rome during the time of it's empire wasn't a true dictatorship, since there was devolved power... it was more akin to an early feudal system. Egypt also included theocratic elements for the majority of its preeminence. Whats your point about steam power in specific? Far more scientific development has occured in democracies than in dictatorships... primarily most of it in the US, Western Europe and some of the Pacific rim, very recently. Democracies... Dictatorships like those in Iraq (well... not any more) and Africa lag behind technologically and economically. Why?

Democrate as in Atemic Greek was mob rule which was able to break contact at whin. The other city state have king and a council of elder's where more friendy to merchant as contact where honour. Dictatorship was than Roman inventing where in the Republic time if there was than major crise where the Republic was in real danger the senato appointed one man to be Dictator for 6 month with absouble power over life and death with no appeal. Normal two councle rule Rome each able to countercommand the other orders than action of state. All Empour have the title and power of Dictatorship but one who abuse they power didnot for some reason last too long in power.

Too many people say that the Steam Engine was inverted by Jame Watts, he never make just than claim, he claim than mine owner useing steam engines ask him to impove the efficiently of the engine. Watt estimable the eff of the unimpove engine at 1 % or less and he make improvement that incress eff to 10 % by tighter fitting pipe, better boiler design and placement.

	14-03-2004 18:51									#320
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quote: Originally posted by CharlesBHoff Democrate as in Atemic Greek was mob rule which was able to break contact at whin. The other city state have king and a council of elder's where more friendy to merchant as contact where honour. Dictatorship was than Roman inventing where in the Republic time if there was than major crise where the Republic was in real danger the senato appointed one man to be Dictator for 6 month with absouble power over life and death with no appeal. Normal two councle rule Rome each able to countercommand the other orders than action of state. All Empour have the title and power of Dictatorship but one who abuse they power didnot for some reason last too long in power.

Rome had provinces which the emperor did not directly rule. Power was devolved to provincial rulers, typically taken from the upper order of the equestrian class. This system was essentially feudal, Rome collected taxes or tribute from the province and the provincial ruler handled day to day matters.

quote: Too many people say that the Steam Engine was inverted by Jame Watts, he never make just than claim, he claim than mine owner useing steam engines ask him to impove the efficiently of the engine. Watt estimable the eff of the unimpove engine at 1 % or less and he make improvement that incress eff to 10 % by tighter fitting pipe, better boiler design and placement.

Whats the point of an invention with no good application? Haven't democracies shown far more ingenuity in not only invention, but also application?

	14-03-2004 23:36									#321
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: I understood Imran to say that deficits and surpluses had no effect whatsoever on triggering recessions or depressions. By themselves, they don't (there, that's you quote out of context you can use to be a complete idiot and ignore the complexities of the issue). What does is usually the business cycle, which cannot be avoided. States with high deficits also suffer recession. If you want 'proof', the state with the highest debt to GDP in the world is Belgium and they were in a recession just recently. Only fiscal or monatary policy can accelerate or reverse a business cycle trend... sometimes they result in deficits or surpluses. Of course you totally ignore the fact that if the deficit gets too big, the US will be less attractive as an investment, which will hurt the American economy badly.

I am not going to call you an idiot, Imran, because I would get banned, I am not going to call you an stubborn fool, as I would get banned, I am not going to tell you what I really think of you, because I would get banned, but I find it amazing that you finally concede the very point I have been arguing and call be an idiot to boot.

	14-03-2004 23:38									#322
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia i dont see why we need to run a deficit. if you wanna stimulate the economy, change the reserve requirement, or decrease the rediscount rate, neither of which involve much government action, and definitly doesnt involve increasing interest rates through public sector borrowing. monetary policy is a much more control method of controlling the economy. there is no need for the broad stroke 'deficit spending' which has way more negatives than positives.

Changing the reserve requirement is why the '90s were a boom. We ran out of reserve leverage, though, by the end of the decade.

	14-03-2004 23:42									#323
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Charles, can you give me link to the history of the steam engine you seem to be quoting?

Also, I think the critical thing about honoring contracts is the rule of law. Babylon and Rome were known for the rule of law. One was a dictatorship. The other was not.

	15-03-2004 00:40									#324
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quote: I am not going to call you an idiot, Imran, because I would get banned, I am not going to call you an stubborn fool, as I would get banned, I am not going to tell you what I really think of you, because I would get banned, but I find it amazing that you finally concede the very point I have been arguing and call be an idiot to boot.

Because you are an idiot. You don't get economics whatsoever. The position of the deficit/surplus really doesn't matter, especially compared to how you got there! Fiscal and monetary policy determine the economy's movement much more than simply +/- of revenues. Though, of course, too much of a deficit will cause great problems in terms of interest rates... and if Europe becomes a good investment oppertunity with the EU, the US is in big trouble.

When economists speak of 'deficit spending' they mean cutting taxes or increasing government spending during recession. But, of course, you're utterly lack of understanding didn't grasp that.

	15-03-2004 03:48									#325
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Imran, your explanation of your position is crap because it does not address anything I said. You again state that fiscal "policy" does effect the economy which is exactly what I have been saying. In other words, you have once agains erected your oponents strawman, knocked it down and declare yourself an god of debate. This is why, my dear dense Imran, the one who is an idiot here is certainly not me.

	15-03-2004 06:38									#326
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quote: your explanation of your position is crap because it does not address anything I said.

Of course it does, you stated that surpluses lead to recession. My explination totally destroys your point. Of course you are too pig headed to admit it and try to change what you said. Instead of saying surpluses/deficits by themselves do not mean anything for the economy, you want to go to fiscal policy because you realize you've been beat.

I think if you made a poll, many, many people would consider you the idiot here.

	15-03-2004 06:46									#327
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ok, lets look at this. from what i can see, Ned says to make economy go, use fiscal policy. i say, to make economy go, use OMO.

Deficit spending = higher interest rates, appreciation of currency, less exports, more imports (larger current account deficit), more FDI, and FI, inflation, crowding out, increased AD, increased employment

Rediscount rate decrease = inflation, lower interest rates, depreciation of currency, more exports, less imports (smaller current account deficit), less FDI and FI, increased AD.

Reserve Requirement = inflation, lower interest rates, depreciation of currency, more exports, less imports, less FDI and FI, increased AD.

looks like monetary policy is better.

	15-03-2004 06:56									#328
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and wtf? surpluses lead to recessions? are u mad? all you have to do is increase the money supply to offset the lost liquidity.

	15-03-2004 07:22									#329
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia and wtf? surpluses lead to recessions? are u mad? all you have to do is increase the money supply to offset the lost liquidity.

Well, at least you agree that surpluses must be offset by monetary growth.

Lawrence, the point of the article I cited was that at times monetary policy simply was not enough, pointing at Japan.

Also, I think you underestimate the deflationary effect of the stock market collapse.

	15-03-2004 07:36									#330
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia and wtf? surpluses lead to recessions? are u mad? all you have to do is increase the money supply to offset the lost liquidity.

Follow the dollars. They are used to buy the debt back. There is no lost liquidity.