15-03-2004 17:16									#181
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quote: If it's the terror act itself that caused the change that this is indeed cowardice. Suddenly the people have realized the supposed immorality of the war?

I'll say again: less than a year ago, PSOE casted more votes than PP in the local elections. PP considered it a victory because it was just after the war and they thought that they'd lose many more votes. And that time, we didn't even know that the WMD didn't exist

	15-03-2004 17:30									#182
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jasev: how are local election tied to the national ones? Does one vote for the same parties in the locals as in the nationals?

	15-03-2004 17:32									#183
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quote: Originally posted by jasev Rodríguez Zapatero has said enouth times that he won't do that. It's too late, the mistake is done and now we have to repair it as best as we can. And now, after the attack, is even more difficult. But as soon as UN thinks we can leave, we'll board our transport planes (Yakolev-42, we rent them because they are cheap and when they fall to the ground, only 42 people die ) and go home.

Yeah, in his first interview he said he would bring them straight home...halfway through the interview he said July 1 if the UN wasn't in control...at the end of the interview he said that he would decide weather or not to remove them after political consultation.

Let's all wait and see before one side or the other starts jumping for joy.

	15-03-2004 17:36									#184
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quote: Originally posted by jasev I'll say again: less than a year ago, PSOE casted more votes than PP in the local elections. PP considered it a victory because it was just after the war and they thought that they'd lose many more votes. And that time, we didn't even know that the WMD didn't exist

jasev, what do you attribute the 5-10% lead the PP had pre-attack? Was this based more on internal things (like economic policy) and the swing attributable to a refocus on international things or do the people think a government change will keep them safe from al-Qaida?

	15-03-2004 17:37									#185
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quote: jasev: how are local election tied to the national ones? Does one vote for the same parties in the locals as in the nationals?

Well, it's not exactly the same, there are local parties that receive more votes in the locals than in the nationals, many people votes a major instead of a party... but usually the results are quite similar.

	15-03-2004 17:39									#186
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quote: jasev, what do you attribute the 5-10% lead the PP had pre-attack? Was this based more on internal things (like economic policy) and the swing attributable to a refocus on international things or do the people think a government change will keep them safe from al-Qaida?

They hadn't. 3-5%, according to the opinion polls. And the spanish opinion polls have a huge tradition of mistakes. I think that Al-Queda may have balanced the elections, but the definitive fact were the lies by the government.

	15-03-2004 17:43									#187
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quote: Originally posted by jasev but the definitive fact were the lies by the government.

*Bush reconsiders Spanish speaking voter registration drives*

	15-03-2004 17:47									#188
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Well, the spanish society is used to be lied by the government. We see it normal, and this government has done it many times. We can live with it, and unfortunately the next governments will do similar things.

But to lie about the cause of 200 deaths while we were still looking for corpses in the rests of the trains was too much.

	15-03-2004 17:53									#189
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quote: I can just hope that it was the lying of the spanish government in the wake of the elections that led to the change in the government, and no fear of further terror acts.

Doesn't matter; it looks like a victory for Al Qaeda (even if it actually wasn't), which is all that matters. Look forward to more attacks like these in the future, as terrorists all over the world see that European countries can be controlled through terror. A very dangerous precedent has been set and I'm very afraid of what the consequences will be...

	15-03-2004 17:58									#190
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quote: Doesn't matter; it looks like a victory for Al Qaeda (even if it actually wasn't), which is all that matters. Look forward to more attacks like these in the future, as terrorists all over the world see that European countries can be controlled through terror. A very dangerous precedent has been set and I'm very afraid of what the consequences will be...

Isn't it beautiful how people believe in democracy only when their favourite candidates win?

	15-03-2004 17:59									#191
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Jasev:

If it was the ETA, and if the PPr had won because of this, the roles would be inverted you know...

	15-03-2004 18:02									#192
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quote: Isn't it beautiful how people believe in democracy only when their favourite candidates win?

Where did I criticize democracy? I don't really care who won; what I do care about is that the surprise comeback by the Socialists in the wake of the bombings looks like a tremendous victory for Al Qaeda, which is sure to spawn more terrorism in the future.

	15-03-2004 18:03									#193
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quote: If it was the ETA, and if the PPr had won because of this, the roles would be inverted you know...

I would have NEVER written that a democratic election is a victory for a terrorist group. And saying such things is an insult to the almost 11 million people that voted for PSOE.

A democratic election is a victory for the people.

	15-03-2004 18:26									#194
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This thread had me thinking...

I'm talking to the Americans of this thread: imagine Bush and Kerry are pretty close to each other one week before election day.
Imagine there is a train attack is, say, New York, just a few days before the election.
Imagine Bush is trying to weasel out of it, blaming the attack on some lunatic militia instead of Al-Qaeda, despite mounting evidence.
Imagine how people will react. Do you think the ousting of Bush will be a terrorist victory then?

	15-03-2004 18:33									#195
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Check this cnn report. I'm watching CNN live and the new Spanish foreign minister just reconfirmed live that he's withdrawing all the troops from Iraq until June 30 barring new action by the UN (any bets on the UN?).

One very haunting thought is: What do the Al-Qaeda organisers of these attacks think and feel after this decision of the Spanish PM? What does this tell them to do next? Do they feel victorious or defeated by this choice of the people? Can it not be, just a remote possibility, that they hoped to bring this about?

I respect the decision of the Spanish people and understand their frustration about being cheated about the truth, in terms of government suppression of facts (the ETA-did-it-explanation) and about the reasons put forward to them justify going to war in Iraq with the US...But this question is truly disturbing conundrum to me...

	15-03-2004 18:35									#196
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quote: Imagine how people will react. Do you think the ousting of Bush will be a terrorist victory then?

If the terrorists desired Bush being expelled from office, then of course it would be a victory for the terrorists. It's always a victory for the terrorists if they get what they want...

And Al Qaeda is definitely getting what it wants, in this case.

	15-03-2004 18:57									#197
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I think it's sad that people turned back to Spanish gouverment because of those attacks, as they only indicate that their gouverment did the right thing fighting terrorists

	15-03-2004 19:08									#198
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Yup. The Al-Qaeda attack succeded at making a country withdraw from Islamic territory.

I'd expect more terrorist attacks in Europe now, since now it will seem that Europeans are not willing to suffer casulties to support their allies.

Al-Qaeda, of course, will gain vast new prestige from this. They have demonstrated that their tactics are effective and put the "Crusaders" on the run.

	15-03-2004 19:20									#199
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quote: I'd expect more terrorist attacks in Europe now, since now it will seem that Europeans are not willing to suffer casulties to support their allies.

I agree. It's becoming obvious that Europe is the weak link in the Western alliance, a fact that Al Qaeda is sure to notice and do their best to take advantage of.

	15-03-2004 19:21									#200
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The troop withdrawl thing doesn't surprise me. 80%+ of the Spanish public was against going into Iraq in the first place. Frankly, given those numbers, the prior government was effectively committing political suicide by going in. How they even managed to make the election close is beyond me.

I do think the withdrawl will send an unfortunate message to some people. While it happens to be the policy the vast majority of Spainards have always wanted, the proximity of the election to the bombings and the sudden U-turn in foreign policy directly after that will be interpreted by many as giving in to AQ. I'm not saying that is actually so, but rather than many will see it that way (both conservative westerners and nutbar Islamists).

The Spanish people have spoken, and that's what's really important. Whether or not I, an American, agree with the policies of their new government is really meaningless. It's up to them, and that's a good thing.

-Arrian

	15-03-2004 19:24									#201
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so what is Spain supposed to do? Invade some Muslim country and bomb the **** out of it, like the US usually does?

An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.

Last edited by Saint Marcus on 15-03-2004 at 19:31

	15-03-2004 19:25									#202
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quote: An eye for an makes the whole world blind.

An eye for what?

	15-03-2004 19:36									#203
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The Spanish people, were, however willing to support the Conservative party which wanted to keep those troops in before they realized their may be casulties.

And don't go with this "This isn't the war on terror, this is something seperate" BS. Before Saddam fell, that may well have been the case, and indeed Spain did not participate in the initial invasion. But after Saddam fell, Iraq has become integral to the West's effort. Some of the insurgents in Iraq are Jihadists, and are activley trying to set up a fundamentalist State there.

But the thing is, if we are sucsessful in setting up a democracy in Iraq, then we will have provided a sucsessful model of democracy in the Arab world that could inspire liberals throughout the region, and possibly provide another pole of opposition to the current thugocracies that rule the MIddle-East other then the jihadists.

Should the resistance to the occupation succeed however, it will provide an exmple that democracy won't work, maintain the jihadists status as being the only alternative the thugocracies, and the Iraqi regime that rises may be pro-terrorist if Islamists don't outright suceed in taking power after the chaos a coalition withdrawal would incur.

To rebuild Iraq and guide it's transition to Democracy, forces are needed there to battle the insurgents that are trying to stop and prevent it. Spain has retreated from the fight.

	15-03-2004 19:36									#204
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quote: Originally posted by jasev Well, the spanish society is used to be lied by the government. We see it normal, and this government has done it many times. We can live with it, and unfortunately the next governments will do similar things. But to lie about the cause of 200 deaths while we were still looking for corpses in the rests of the trains was too much.

quote: Originally posted by jasev They hadn't. 3-5%, according to the opinion polls. And the spanish opinion polls have a huge tradition of mistakes. I think that Al-Queda may have balanced the elections, but the definitive fact were the lies by the government.

	15-03-2004 19:40									#205
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quote: And don't go with this "This isn't the war on terror, this is something seperate" BS. Before Saddam fell, that may well have been the case, and indeed Spain did not participate in the initial invasion. But after Saddam fell, Iraq has become integral to the West's effort. Some of the insurgents in Iraq are Jihadists, and are activley trying to set up a fundamentalist State there. But the thing is, if we are sucsessful in setting up a democracy in Iraq, then we will have provided a sucsessful model of democracy in the Arab world that could inspire liberals throughout the region, and possibly provide another pole of opposition to the current thugocracies that rule the MIddle-East other then the jihadists. Should the resistance to the occupation succeed however, it will provide an exmple that democracy won't work, maintain the jihadists status as being the only alternative the thugocracies, and the Iraqi regime that rises may be pro-terrorist if Islamists don't outright suceed in taking power after the chaos a coalition withdrawal would incur. To rebuild Iraq and guide it's transition to Democracy, forces are needed there to battle the insurgents that are trying to stop and prevent it. Spain has retreated from the fight.

Spot on analysis. Nice post, Shi.

	15-03-2004 19:42									#206
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi But the thing is, if we are sucsessful in setting up a democracy in Iraq, then we will have provided a sucsessful model of democracy in the Arab world that could inspire liberals throughout the region, and possibly provide another pole of opposition to the current thugocracies that rule the MIddle-East other then the jihadists.

Turkey hasn't done anything like that. What makes you think a sucsessful Iraq would do anything like that?

	15-03-2004 19:44									#207
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A victory for terrorists. They are now aware that Spain's populace will negotiate with them.

	15-03-2004 19:44									#208
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I will repeat what i said at first, but which was ignored:

The PP claimed that going into Iraq, even against a supermayority of Spanish public opinion was the correct thing to do becuase it would help keep Spain safe.

This was demonstrably FALSE. Participation in Iraq did NOT make Spain a lick safer vs AQ, whether AQ attacked becuase of Spains participation in Iraq, or just becuase Spain is a western democracy, whichever you believe it does not matter-the Madrid attacked showed the contention that Spain's participation in the Iraq war did anything to keep Spain safer as a lie.

What if those 1300 troops had been sent by the Aznar government nearlky a year ago to Afghanistan? What if they had been used in internal security? I don;t know if doing either of those would have helped thwart this attack-but most certainly having them in Iraq did nothing to make Spain safer from AQ.

Sadly, it took a huge AQ attack to make this reality, that the danger to Spain is AQ and that participation in Iraq has done nothing to degrade it's abilities to attack Spain. So why then should a Spanish gov. continue a highly unpopular stance that does not even give any benefits to Spain?

As for the government handling-why would the Aznar gov, be so insistent about blaming ETA? Becuase if it turned out to be AQ, it would show false its Iraq premise.

	15-03-2004 19:46									#209
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I will repeat what i said at first, but which was ignored:

Hello Mr Fun.

	15-03-2004 19:48									#210
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Where, where?