18-03-2004 02:51									#31
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Remember a few weeks (months or what ever its been) when there was that thread about wether or not it was in our best intrests to obtain a tect teald while this war was going on? I think that this idea stems from that debate.
I fully feel that we will be the econ power in this game despite being 2nd in size because of our commercial trait and superb planning on ET's part.

Tech leads do not last more than a few turns in this game, plus they just make it easier for the other teams to catch up on their own. I also don't see GWT doing a very good job of preparing for wonders (or they would have leo's by now). It might be a risk, but I think we can savely put this game into ET's capable hands.

(Although I AM uncomfortable with Dominae dissagreeing. If he got on board it would be a done deal in my book.)

	18-03-2004 06:24									#32
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quote: Originally posted by E_T Here is my reasoning, we can get HG as soon as possible, trigger our GA with size 7 to 9 cities (with GL or Mags, likely in HoD), build bachs in the GA, allowing cities up to size 11, then work on getting things like temples, coluseums and Caths in them (with Max production, won't take long). Around that time, Steam power comes on the seen, making HG useless, but effective up to that point. Also, we will likely be at war sometime in there, so the effectiveness, even though it;s limited, is still there and it will fully benifit our economy to the extent that waiting the 5 turns for Monarchy will have an astounding effectiveness on our future research efforts. And just to let you know, I could build HG in AP in 20 turns (possibly less), after it's Market is finished. And with HG in AP, I can get IT up to size 11 and not need anything else until Steam Power. THAT in combo with it's SPT and TPT power will make it a 20 SPT Power house that will produce 30 SPT while in a GA. That's 20 turns for a 600 Sheild wonder (Leos, JSB or Smiths). Also, with the extra power that I can get, trade wise while in our GA, we can get (based on mods to current sim): Chemistry in 4 turns @50%; Physics, Metalurgy, Mil Trad, Theory of Grav & Magnet in 4 turns @ 60%. Of cource, we will have a larger pop base at that time and should have most if not all of Chem done before the GA starts. So, we would be entering the Ind Age (without Democracy) by the end of our GA. That would seem to me to be short enough. The thing is, this is a short term Investment, especially because we can only do a stealth build for 7 turns, unless we have it building one of the other Wonders just to Misdirect what we are doing. Again, I can't stress the amount of payback that this one small investment will make to our nation. Literally, If I have this, I'll give you all the game. MoI E_T

If I'm reading you correctly, the HG build is part of an integrated plan to propel us forward further and faster than if we do not do it.

It takes a lot for me to disagree with Dom and Arrian, not to mention others, since they seem to be addressing conventional wisdom. After all, how could we come out further ahead by 'wasting' 500 some odd beakers? What I need to know is this...

In simple terms, how much further ahead are we by taking this detour? Are we further ahead by turn 200 than we would have been without it? How?

Also, you mentioned Trip earlier. Where is he on this issue now?

To others, I would ask that we consider this well. If it can be demonstrated that we do come out ahead by turn x then it becomes compelling, yes? Experience with Civ leads me to believe that the less obvious move now can be better in the long run. The question then becomes whether we have the luxury of waiting for turn x to enjoy our payoff.

	18-03-2004 06:41									#33
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PS.

How long do we have to consider this? If time is too short can we zero the science slider for a turn or two while it is thrashed out and make up later with defecit spending?

	18-03-2004 15:12									#34
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Also, you mentioned Trip earlier. Where is he on this issue now?

Trip is out of town. He will be back this weekend, I believe.

quote: To others, I would ask that we consider this well. If it can be demonstrated that we do come out ahead by turn x then it becomes compelling, yes? Experience with Civ leads me to believe that the less obvious move now can be better in the long run. The question then becomes whether we have the luxury of waiting for turn x to enjoy our payoff.

That's the issue I addressed in my post. My thinking on the issue was similar to your own, but I'm swayed largely by Dominae's argument in the end. I've read what E_T has and I think it's an innovative idea that might be the route to take if we didn't think that GWT would beat us to wonders down the line.

Obviously, we'd all prefer to KNOW for sure which way was superior. Unfortunately, the only way to really know is to know how fast GWT is going to be able to compete. That is not an easy thing to gauge.

	18-03-2004 15:14									#35
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither PS. How long do we have to consider this? If time is too short can we zero the science slider for a turn or two while it is thrashed out and make up later with defecit spending?

We have until the next turn is started. Since the other continent is in the middle of armageddon, however, we may have some time.

	18-03-2004 15:30									#36
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by Arnelos That's the issue I addressed in my post. My thinking on the issue was similar to your own, but I'm swayed largely by Dominae's argument in the end. I've read what E_T has and I think it's an innovative idea that might be the route to take if we didn't think that GWT would beat us to wonders down the line.

I think et is edging towards the idea that the HG could help us get the other wonders, sooner, and with more gold in the bank for upgrades, and more citizens working to build all our cities than if we do not build it.

That is what I am waiting to hear. I am waiting to hear that by going by the detour we can get 100 miles further down the road by turn x than if we do not take the detour. Then we can examine whether we can wait till turn x-y for the pay off.

It seems to me to be in a similar vein to the warrior-warrior-granery gambit. It is counter intuitive that the wwg gambit gets you further ahead by turn 50, but it does. It had to be demonstrated that it did before people widely accepted it.

As I recall, GWT should be some way behind in tech. That could very well give us all the leash we need to finesse an extra trick on the way to the grand slam. Forgive the hyperbole, but I think that is what et is thinking as well.

	18-03-2004 16:23									#37
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I think et is edging towards the idea that the HG could help us get the other wonders, sooner, and with more gold in the bank for upgrades, and more citizens working to build all our cities than if we do not build it. That is what I am waiting to hear. I am waiting to hear that by going by the detour we can get 100 miles further down the road by turn x than if we do not take the detour. Then we can examine whether we can wait till turn x-y for the pay off. It seems to me to be in a similar vein to the warrior-warrior-granery gambit. It is counter intuitive that the wwg gambit gets you further ahead by turn 50, but it does. It had to be demonstrated that it did before people widely accepted it. As I recall, GWT should be some way behind in tech. That could very well give us all the leash we need to finesse an extra trick on the way to the grand slam. Forgive the hyperbole, but I think that is what et is thinking as well.

I don't doubt that that is what E_T is thinking and I think it's rather innovative. As I said, I really just wish we KNEW whether it would pay off. As with you, I'd like to see a comparison. That said, such a comparison will take time and work with sims.

I'm honestly thinking that if the save arrives soon, I may agree with your suggestion that some means should be provided for delaying this decision until we are fully comfortable with making it.

Given how slowly the game is moving right now anyhow, I'd personally more comfortable with delaying the game for 24 hours or so if that's enough time. If not, your suggestion of zeroing out our research and then deficit spending has potential merit (though I'd think that a course of last resort in the face of delaying the game too much otherwise).

I certainly want to give E_T every opportunity to make his case.

	18-03-2004 19:24									#38
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First off, I have little time before I have to get some sleep

* E_T was falling asleep at work several times last night and has 1 more night before a schedualed 3 "day" weekend

A chat transcript with Arnelos this morning

quote: [E_T_bed_then_work> Hey * E_T_bed_then_work is now known as E_T [E_T> have I caused a ruckus with this HG thing or not?? [Arnelos> :grin: [MasterZen> [Arnelos> E_T - if it caused a ruckus, it was a good one to cause [MasterZen> 4 more pages and I'M DONE!!!!! [E_T> your thesus? * E_T is tired and his spelling, which isn;t the best at the best of times, gets worst... [E_T> Arnie, to answer some of your questions [Arnelos> E_T - go ahead [MasterZen> 3 more pages.... [E_T> First off, tech speed of going Monarchy first, then Astro, Music, Banking, Eco and Nav [E_T> I have extencively played with the numbers and going Monarchy now only loses 2 turns (with a very conservative beaker growth estimate) whem all of these 5 main techs are done [E_T> because we have a lower beaker count now and until the Palace move, because of keeping city sizes down, heavy corruption in the new cities and a few other factors, like new cities still coming online [E_T> the balance of beakers will have us Astro in 10 turns from now, with a starting time of 11 (if we start now) [E_T> If we start it right after the Palace move, it;s 9 turns, atmost [MasterZen> LAST PAGE!!!! [E_T> so, there is 1 turn from the 5 turns of Monarchy time spent * E_T goes to check his notes for the remainder of this, but that chart I have in the first post explains it a bit more, so you can look at that while I talk you through the rest of it [MasterZen> LAST ENTRY!!!!!! [MasterZen> LAST NUMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [MasterZen> w00t! [MasterZen> finished! [MasterZen> * E_T is now waiting for MZ to reformat the wrong hard drive.... [MasterZen> hahha [MasterZen> no way [MasterZen> anyway, time to get some sleep [MasterZen> cya tomorrow [E_T> Backup OITNOW!!: * MasterZen has quit IRC (Quit: I finished!!!! ) [E_T> hehe [E_T> For the next tech in the string, Music, if we go Astro first, it takes 7 turns (again, with my estimate of beaker growth over time), where, doing Monarchy first, it;s 6 turns [E_T> that is another turn from the 5 turns off from Monarchy [E_T> Granted, the astro first route has 5 beakers left on the 7th turn of research, but then, the growth (and begining beaker amount if based on a corruption light sim) [E_T> another reason for the concervative growth estimate [E_T> but that is still 2 of the 5 "wasted" turns recovered [E_T> Banking afterwards - Mon route, 7 turn; astro route, 8 turns [E_T> 3rd turn recovered [E_T> and both Eco and Nav take the same time to complete in both routes, but with the Monarchy first route, we can turn the slider down more at the end [E_T> repectively, 8 and 7 turns [E_T> so, with research growth over time, i.e. larger pops, and libs built, these techs complete at just about the same time and it's not 5 turns lost, but only 2. [E_T> so in reality, this is good for us. Plus, when we get those techs, it will be around 5 to 10 turns to our GA * E_T now realizes why the AI goes for the cheaper tech first alot of the time, because the programmers understood this growth effect [E_T> Although, if doesn't work out if your breaker growth is stagnent [E_T> and for us to remain ahead of GWT/GCA in techs, we need that growth [E_T> and as much unhindered with Lux slider as is possible [E_T> so that we have the cash flow for all of the outlays that we are going to have to make between now and the end of our GA [E_T> and of course, we ARE commercial, so lets take as much advantage in trade bonuses as is possible [E_T> and lets speak frankly, we both know that GWT/GCA is going to be setting their sights on us (and CFC) relatively soon. And it HAS to be before RR & Rifles if they are to have any chance of success [E_T> so, my timing sense had figured that they will have Nav and attack us around the time that we will be starting our GA [E_T> So, not only do we need to have a higher economic base, but the extra production base with just having an extra sheild or 3 from a city being at size 7 can make all of the difference in our preparation for this event [E_T> And who knows, If my build up is even better that I figure it should be, we might seriously consider invading them (in co-operation with CFC, of course) [E_T> and I have a few good ideas, based on the things that have already been discussed as to how to do it and royally screw them [E_T> but then, that's in a very uncertain and currently speculative future [E_T> questions? * E_T thinks that he has put Arnelos to sleep [Arnelos> I'm reading all of the crap you just posted in here [Arnelos> [E_T> shoot, I was thinking you were hanging on my next line of text.... * E_T is going to go have a smoke while you digest the above [Arnelos> finished [Arnelos> E_T - the issue that you seem to be addressing is the issue of how many TURNS it will take out. What of how much MONEY it will take out? Would we not be in a better position simply by stockpiling the CASH we would spend on Monarchy and using it to fund the lux slider and a higher research rate? [Arnelos> playing devil's advocate here [E_T> back [Arnelos> well, cr*p... I gotta go [Arnelos> anyhow, keep working on it. [Arnelos> We should have plenty of time [E_T> that is one of the issues that has been spoken about, is the turns "wasted" on researching Monarchy [Arnelos> I know [Arnelos> I'm not as worried about the turns, that's only symptomatic. The REAL ISSUE is hte money/beakers [Arnelos> anyhow, gotta go * Arnelos has quit IRC (Quit: ) [E_T> and if anything, needs to be addressed first (which is why I tryed to do that in the thread;s initial post

	18-03-2004 19:47									#39
	Remove this text

And now, because NYE had posted my PM to him (and he has my premission to, belated at that.... ), I'll do the same with a responce from him and my further reply to him. I'll have to break this us into 2 posts, because of the leinght of my reply...

quote: No problem. If you can, try to give a simple account of cost/benefit, and emphasis how we get further ahead by doing it. I think the amount of detail is making people not take the time to read. If this plan is the best for us, then it is a stroke of genius. I would be pleased to help it get a fair hearing.

And I'll atleast try to address this now. I know that people want to read short and to the point threads about issues (with pretty graphs and all ), but with this complex and controvercial of an issue I knew that it would be, I had figured that giving people as much information, even if they do go on overload, is better than none at all. I'm not an eloquent poster/speaker, like Arnelos is. I can't stir up the emotional juices with my words alone. I like to deal in facts, figures and speculative thinking, in a very long term basis.

It's hard to speak about how this Item, built at this place, at this time, is going to have X and Y effects Z turns down the road, without having to go into gut renchingly boring details (and analysis and other such things) without having visual aids and other consise things. Especially with the amount of time that I have available to put such things togeather. And it's hard to get someone to visualize all of these things, especially when it deals in a game that is 40 to 50 (to 70 or 80 when dealing with the GA time included) and each turn takes anywhere from 1 to 5 days to play. For most peaple, thinking in this way is not very easy and in some cases, almost downright impossible (I'm not saying anything about anyone, just stating a fact about the average Human Being - why do you think most political organizations are so F-ed up....).

I will try to get some more information about this to you over the next several days, but it's not going to be easy for some to absorb, although I will make every effort to make it easier (which for me, is to make the post that much longer...). As Ihave always voiced, Information is Key to making a Demo Game work, although, sometimes, you can give someone way too much information and they only see what they want to see (again, Human Nature).

E_T

	18-03-2004 19:53									#40
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and my responce to NYE's PM

quote: I shall try, given the limited amount of time I have for posting on a work "day" (14 hours nights, with travel and time to get ready for work and maybe an hour or 2 of sleep...), doesn't leave me that much time to do things. I spent my last 2 days off working on finalizing the presented details and further analysis of this Idea. * E_T has had this kicking around in his head for a while It was the sim results of both Trip and myself that finalized the need for this. Trip's effort was directed towards how powerful we would get after the Palace moves whereas mine has been figuring the possible research growth over time from the effects of the move. I have somewhat discussed with Consuls about HG, but we still had the issue of our reseach speed at that time, and FP build and Super-REX (and mustn't forget the Unit Warp issue), so it got burried. I've been examining this as much as I could, be my time had to be managed and it had to wait. As for hard numbers, I don;t have that, partly because of just plain time and partly because of too many uncertainties at this point. All I'm going on is things that I KNOW (or almost certain about), like that our economic power WILL grow, we WILL have a GA in around 45 to 55 some odd turns, we WILL have to deal with GWT/GCA and that we are commercial and want to get to Ind ASAP. Also, with a LOT of new cities starting from scratch, it does take time to get them into shape. After we have Followed the Stealth Iron cutting Mil Buildup plan we will also require a large sum for their ultimate upgrades to whatever type of Unit that we will need them to be upgraded to. Unfortunately, this isn't a sum that we can easily aquire while doing a while at 40 research and still keep ahead in techs. But not only do we need to have the money for the upgrades, we need the cities that can build those items. We need to have cities for Wonder prebuilds (or basic needs), for Horses in 2, 3 & 4 turn cities and Galleys/Caravels/Cats/NM's in others. And, of course, the barracks to build them in... More income, for short/thoughtput rushes helps reduce the time for these things. Also, priortizing their builds, so as to get the fullest return for our rush investments. Having to use the Lux slider, while NOT in a war, IMHO, is not a cost effective option when taking all of these things into consideration. Part of the answer to all of these is to build something that will effect them all, across the board, something that is relatively cheap (and little time to build, so that we can have it available when it;s most needed) because we are still working up to a larger production base, especially after finishing the REX/Palace move. Something that can be up and having an effect, well before out GA hits, so that we can make the most of it Also, when it comes to dealing with GWT/GCA, I figure that that time will come around when we are just about (or just started) our GA. Mark your calenders, that;s when we (us and CFC) are going to have to deal with their invasion. And when we get NAV and are able to trade Luxes with them, will we really want to?? what price will they make on them? Do we base our economic growth and streinght on their Luxes, when they can (in all reality) cut them off at a whim, when we are the least prepared for it, by just declaring war on us? If we do trade, who will get the better benifit from it, us or them?? Going this route helps to answer these questions, because we won;t NEED their Luxes, whereas, they will NEED ours. Or we can just keep up the embargo against them and settle that issue (and theirs with the Invasion) with finality. * E_T thinks he's starting to ramble.... I'll see if I can post some more things, but it would be nice if I had some actual sim testing help from someone who does that very well :hint: :hint: E_T

	18-03-2004 20:13									#41
	Need some Simulation help, but read and understand this before you make a sim Remove this text

Now, as for sim testing, first off, I was saving this for a different thread, but I need to say this now, if we are to get relitively accurate Sims Modeled out (by whoever does the simming).

This game's Corruption Model has been altered from Standard PBEM amounts. This is still a rough guestimate, but sofar, show true to the actual facts.

Our current game is Modded in one (or a combo of them all) of the 3 following manners:
1) Percentage of Optimal Citys in the Regent difficulty is decreased from 90% (default) to 85%.
2) Number of Optimal Citys (in the Standard size Map) has been decreased from 16 to 15
3) Percentage of Corruption in the Regent difficulty has been increased from 100% to 105%

All of my calculations sofar shows that we are about 105% of corruption for what we should have, based on mapsize, difficulty and traits. Both SP and PBEM sims to date show this difference, but has been too small to try to quantify it (up until now). I was working on creating a new Sim, to test these 3 different possibilities and then figure which is the best fit for what we actually experiance.

I'm thinking that this was not intentional, but a BIX setting that Mongoose had that he was playing with and accidentally added it to this game. But the fact remains, that any sim that is created to help with further game analysis, needs to have it's corruption model changed, so that the sim reflects the actual game as closely as possible.

I am currently leaning towards the 85% NOPT figure as the best fit, but that is with some very limited testing and time.

I need help with getting some information, specific numbers to either show that this is a very good idea, and that we should persue it OR that it's just a whim and that we should go a different path.

I ask that we have as many team members who are good at simming, to help with this, because I just don;t have the time to do it.

MoI E_T

	18-03-2004 20:19									#42
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* E_T is going to bed now, I'll see what's up in around 24 hours from now.

E_T

	18-03-2004 20:33									#43
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I guess the big questions are these:

1) How far behind is GWT in tech?
2) What cities are available for wonder building, and what are their shield outputs?

If we have enough of a lead that we think we can build the HG *and* beat GWT to Bachs and Smiths... well then it's worth considering.

Here is an important question, though:

Can another city of ours build Bachs before Banatopia could, if it started now? Bach's effect is double that of the HG, except for the city it's built in. It twice as big too, I know. But it's never obselete.

I'm not necessarily approaching this as an either-or proposition, but rather as a matter of timing. Will building the HG in Banatopia instead of Bachs potentially delay getting Bachs?

Can we not start a prebuild now and either research Asto, Banking, or shut research off for a bit and do some shortrushing, and then revisit the Monarchy idea later?

The way I see it, there are a large number of wonders in this age that we would find useful. I'd like to see us try and get them. I do not, therefore, much like the idea of using one of our best production centers on an older, less effective wonder. I now regret we finished the Great Wall. I wish we had made that into the HG. But that's done now.

It's possible we might have enough of a tech lead that we can feel secure about Smith, and maybe even Bach. I don't know. How far back is GWT in tech? But what about taking a shot at the Sistine, then?

Speaking of our tech lead, I take back what I said about going for Astronomy. The last thing we want, I think, is to help GWT get to Navigation. So right now, I'm ranking the choices this way:

1) Banking
2) shut of science for a bit, do some short rushing (particularly in cities working on marketplaces)
3) Music Theory

-Arrian

	18-03-2004 20:48									#44
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Sleep well, E_T, you deserve it.

-Arrian

	18-03-2004 21:30									#45
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither To others, I would ask that we consider this well. If it can be demonstrated that we do come out ahead by turn x then it becomes compelling, yes?

Yes, I agree. But the burden of proof is on E_T to provide compelling arguments to support his claim. I'm perfectly open to being proved wrong here.

Personally I think this will be difficult; guarantees that we will win the game if we build the Gardens because "it's an economic fact" are not compelling to me.

E_T: what you're not taking into account is that the Hanging Gardens not only have to pay for the cost of Monarchy (in terms of reduced Lux slider usage), but also put us at the same spot we would be if we were never to research Monarchy in the first place (in terms of Beakers and turns). Just because it "only" takes 4 turns to research does not mean it's automatically worth it. And then, of course, there's the 300 Shields issue.


Dominae

	19-03-2004 01:26									#46
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

I can see E_T's argument for the HG being a very good one. My guess is that GWT is still some 10 turns from Theology and will atempt Sistines shortly afterward if they are not already preuilding for it. They do not have GP. GWT is behind in techs by 3 now. And it will be 4 techs in ~6-8 turns.

I'm not about to build a Sim that shows us going down the two alternative paths. I just don't have the time to do that now.

I can see the HG's saving us both gold and shields for a long time due to less need for the lux slider(gold) and also more available population to work tiles (an increase in both gold an shiled output)

I give E_T's plan a

I also think we should try for as many Wonders as we can.

	19-03-2004 02:09									#47
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quote: I also think we should try for as many Wonders as we can.

Aye. And there's the rub. How many wonders can we try for, and expect to get?

We lack any monster wonder cities. I understand why that is, given our start and the need to dig out from under the disadvantage we had. But the reality is we are not in a position to try and build lots and lots of wonders. We need to pick several we REALLY want, and go all-out for those.

Which is why I'm *very* skeptical about spending 300 shields on the Hanging Gardens.

-Arrian

	19-03-2004 03:25									#48
	Put an end to popups!

Once the Palace moves it would be very easy to build an Aquaduct or two and add a few workers into a couple of cities and have our go at more than just 1 or 2 Wonders.

BFC
Hispanica
Tripoli
Banatopia
Apolyton Prime

We have cities that are capable of being major producers.

	19-03-2004 03:39									#49
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Adding workers? I wasn't aware that we had spare workers. We still have a shitload of jungle to cut down.

-Arrian

	19-03-2004 04:08									#50
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree We have cities that are capable of being major producers.

Need I remind you that GWT has a much better capacity for Wonder-building right now? They could easily beat us to two or three Wonders while trouncing CGN. I'm not being fatalistic, just pointing out that we're not "all that".


Dominae

	19-03-2004 06:56									#51
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Per the request of E_T, I am also looking into this. Most of what I will say has already been stated before, but I hope to put a new spin on things.

Our basic costs & negatives are as follows:
*4 turns of research
*300 shield of wonder building
*It is of a limited time (obsolete in probably 60-80 turns)

Positives and mitigation:
*Although we spend 4 turns researching (with all those Beakers), we only loose 2 turns. Why, because of the palace jump. This will radically alter the economic potential, causing a surge in wealth. This will, unfortunately, cause a waste effect as the change takes place. This waste will be reduced by having less into a larger research project. Yes, there are other ways of limiting the waste effect (adjusting the slider as research nears completion is the easiest and most common), however, we will still loose some I do believe. This project helps to minimize the impact and still move us favorably forward.
*Currently, we are limited in our growth potential due to focusing on non-happiness generating improvements (temples, etc.). I agree with the strategy we have been following, however, it is a limit we need to address. By being able to grow past size 7, we will be able to offset to some extent the costs of producing the wonder. How much of an offset there will be is questionable (E_T’s and Trips simulations did not go into this). But think, what does one extra pop being productive in each city, say a total of 15 cities with the extra for an average of 25 turns; working a 2 food, 1 shield & one gold tile make for us? That, my friends, results in 375 shields, 375 gold and 750 foods generated. This is significant. Now, that is just an example using an average tile. We all know that not all tiles are average, corruption effects, different ratios of gold in the bank and research, and so forth will play a part. Some cities will obviously benefit more than others. Also, who is to say that it will only be limited by 25 turns? It may last for up to 40 turns, which is huge. Overall, I see it as paying for itself, with the potential of huge returns.
*The additional defensive bonuses of being larger than size 6 (offset with the Great Wall factor however) is an additional bonus.

Other factors to consider:
*Within the next 20 turns, we will be doing a significant increase in our military spending due to the iron cut. Good, we need to build up. This comes at a cost, we have to pay maintenance on those units.
*Not only will we have to put the time and shields into building units, we will also have to upgrade, at a cost of over 5k. Each and every gold piece will be needed for us to make this happen. This plan has the potential of generating large amounts of gold, better than any other plan I have heard of (which is ZERO, because the other plans that I see are just “keep doing what we are and plod along, all will be well”). Sorry folks, that ostrich head in the sand will not cut it for me. Lets look at what will be what and do some figuring. From what I see, we will not make nearly enough to cover upgrades at the rate we are going.
*We will be going into a Golden Age, probably within the next 50-70 turns. Great timing to get the boost we need for preparing ourselves in entering the Industrial Age. Having extra hands working the fields cannot be a bad thing, and in a GA it is the best thing we can do to out produce all the heathens.
*We will be in a war in the next 60-80 turns. Just a guess as to the time, but it makes sense, doesn’t it? WW will be hurting us big time.
*We can sell the tech once we are sure we can get the wonder. Little bit of cash on the side never hurts, and it may make us a friend or two….

I find that E_T’s proposal is a very sound and rational one, based on significant advantages that it will afford to us in the mid term. As a worst case, I see it as being a wash. In the best, I see it as paying for it 3 or 4 times over, and preparing the stage with our increased base, stability and infrastructure for world domination come the beginning of the Industrial Era (which is IMHO the most important time of any game, make it or break it time). I don’t see it as being the end all be all that E_T may have initially stated, but it is truly an excellent proposal.

I say do it!

Only one minor concern is that if we do sell off monarchy to help offset our initial investments, we make darn sure that we will get the HG first. It is truly a waste if we start down this path and cannot complete the project. All those beakers and shield potentially wasted…. Shivers down my spine. I do know that we are smart enough, with our group of leaders that are active enough, to not let the happen.

Humbly yours (ya, right)
--GK

	19-03-2004 08:20									#52
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by Arrian Adding workers? I wasn't aware that we had spare workers. We still have a shitload of jungle to cut down. -Arrian

We have to sacrafice something. To get the HG is well worth it IMO.

	19-03-2004 08:23									#53
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by Dominae Need I remind you that GWT has a much better capacity for Wonder-building right now? They could easily beat us to two or three Wonders while trouncing CGN. I'm not being fatalistic, just pointing out that we're not "all that". Dominae

Yes, they have some bigger cities. But, they also shelved some improvements in order to build so many units. They are suffering very heavily now from WW. In order for them to even try to catch up in the Tech race, they will have to build many improvements, most of which preclude them building wonders for the time being. GWT may look at the map and see Apolyton with only size 6 cities right now and are not worried about our ability to produce Wonders. We can use that to our advantage and get a jump start now.

	19-03-2004 19:05									#54
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Not only will we have to put the time and shields into building units, we will also have to upgrade, at a cost of over 5k. Each and every gold piece will be needed for us to make this happen. This plan has the potential of generating large amounts of gold, better than any other plan I have heard of (which is ZERO, because the other plans that I see are just “keep doing what we are and plod along, all will be well”).

Has anyone considered the value of, instead of researching Monarchy, simply going max-tax for 4 turns, and starting a prebuild on Bach?

4 turns of max tax will probably offset the luxury slider usage we will need w/o the HG. We also save 300 shields that can be allocated to building Bach, which as I've mentioned before, is much more valueable than the HG.

What about that?

-Arrian

	19-03-2004 19:51									#55
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

I'm not sure max-Tax will save us any money, but it's always an option if we need cash at some point for rushes or upgrades. Kicking back Science for a couple of turns does not throw away any Beakers. It's just not horribly efficient, mind you, since we decided a while back to invest in Libraries (or do we have more Marketplaces than Libraries?).


Dominae

Last edited by Dominae on 20-03-2004 at 04:23

	19-03-2004 21:41									#56
	Put an end to popups!

I agree it's not necessarily efficient.

Here's what I'm getting at: E_T's plan for the HG is premised on the idea that having the HG will allow for a lower luxury rate (saving us money). The plan requires spending 4 turns researching Monarchy (which has little value for us otherwise) and spending 300 shields on a wonder.

My alternative plan was to go max tax for 4 turns and use that tax revenue to fund the higher luxury rate that will be necessary without the HG, and instead work on Bach.

I didn't crunch the numbers, I admit it. I imagine, however, that 4 turns of max tax will generate a fair chunk of change, and that will fund the higher luxury setting for quite some time.

-Arrian

	20-03-2004 00:55									#57
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Actually, I had originally thought about the 4 turns of Monarchy and getting an extra turn's boost from the trade from the palace move, then I tryed testing that assumption. I had then found out an intersting thing about when the trade calculations take place in the game sequence. This was that it takes place at the very begining, before the multi turn worker tasks were completed (and before the Palace had moved when Apolyton's City sequence had come up).

I then quantified that, with several tiles razed and with workers reroading those tiles and seeing what GPT effects would happen and when. It showed that the trade was done right before the roads were rebuilt. This was tested in several manners and was found to be true to that.

So, I then looked at the 5 turn plan, because that's how many turns at 50% it would be (because I wanted to get the full boost for the Astro tech). It's just, when I had started making that initial post, doing the tests, refiguring several things, doing a little bit more testing and then finishing that post, that I had forgotten to change that part to 5 turns. But my other evaluations in that initial post are the same.


Now, first off, Thank you GK, for that very good post. It says these things a lot better than I would have been able to.

Dom, lets say that we instead go full tax for 4 (or 5 turns, as the case will be), while we have a vastly corrupt nation that is way off center, it will not really benifit us, because that is only over a very short time frame. Just for comparison sake, from last turns' opening, we are at -29GPT at 50% research and at +87GPT with full tax, a difference of +116GPT, over 5 turns nets us 580 Gold in our account.

When looking at my sim, just after the Palace move, we will be around +11 GPT at 50% research and at +168GPT at full tax, a difference of +157GPT. Of course, we won't likely be running at full tax at that time, because we want the full research force applied to the effort. And again, this sim is corruption light. But back onto track...

If we take the effects of the difference between cash flow of Having the HG and using the Lux slider amounts that I had previously posted (-52GPT), that 580 gold will only balance out for just 12 turns, then we will be in deficit.

* E_T thinks that the 12 turns cost of not having HG in research cost for the tech and the 12 turns balance from the full tax for 5 turns is just too much of a coinincedence....

GK's figures are close to what I'm suspecting (and I'm definately going to try to get much more), we will have a huge outcome for a "little" investment.


Arrian: If we instead, use AP to prebuild something, like JSB, we would have a slight problem with that. First off, without a Library being built in AP, the most costly Improvement that we CURRENTLY can build there is a Coluseeum, so we can be in a stealth build for only 120 sheilds, we can use some other Wonder (ST or Mike's) as a "prebuild"/sheild storage device. Both are 600 sheilds. But then, what happens when GWT/GCA gets (or has, didn;t GCA get a GL just before the Warp??) a GL, and uses it for those, then we would have to completely show what we are moving towards. At 15-16 SPT (before and after the boarders expand), that would take 38 to 40 turns for something to happen to keep us from getting it. Where, with the additional SPT from the higher pop working, we get 20-21SPT and can get it (non-GA) in 29 to 30 turns. And again, that's just AP alone.

Granted, we still can't go fully stealth with HG, but we can fake them out with one of the other wonders.

And nothing precludes storing shields for another wonder in AP, before the GA hits, but then we will be looking at a lot of other things at that same time.

I'll try to post some more later, as my brain is mush and I need some sleep.

E_T

	20-03-2004 01:12									#58
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quote: the most costly Improvement that we CURRENTLY can build there is a Coluseeum, so we can be in a stealth build for only 120 sheilds, we can use some other Wonder (ST or Mike's) as a "prebuild"/sheild storage device. Both are 600 sheilds. But then, what happens when GWT/GCA gets (or has, didn;t GCA get a GL just before the Warp??) a GL, and uses it for those, then we would have to completely show what we are moving towards. At 15-16 SPT (before and after the boarders expand), that would take 38 to 40 turns for something to happen to keep us from getting it. Where, with the additional SPT from the higher pop working, we get 20-21SPT and can get it (non-GA) in 29 to 30 turns. And again, that's just AP alone.

Does the city have a cathedral already? That's 160 shields. How long until the palace move? Once that is done, the palace becomes available for stealth prebuild purposes. Even if the palace move is far enough down the road that a cathedral isn't big enough to hold the shields until the palace move, we can always use some old obselete wonder (Oracle?) or even the Hanging Gardens.

-Arrian

	20-03-2004 01:30									#59
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by E_T But then, what happens when GWT/GCA gets (or has, didn;t GCA get a GL just before the Warp??) a GL, and uses it for those, then we would have to completely show what we are moving towards.

GCA didn't get another GL before the jump (that we can know of), I'm not sure where this rumor came from. The last one they got was in the Battle of Algalord, when they used it to make a Pike Army.

	20-03-2004 01:31									#60
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Does the city have a cathedral already? That's 160 shields. How long until the palace move? Once that is done, the palace becomes available for stealth prebuild purposes. Even if the palace move is far enough down the road that a cathedral isn't big enough to hold the shields until the palace move, we can always use some old obselete wonder (Oracle?) or even the Hanging Gardens.

We're going to use the Palace for our Smith's or Leo's builds.