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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:34
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With this next turn to be played (turn 165, 490AD), we will only have 1 turn remaining at Researching Education. So the question needs to be asked, what do we research next?
Now first off, we have several Options open to us:
Astronomy (1344 beakers) - allows Caravels (40 shields, 1/2/3, carry 3), safe sea travel for Galleys and Copernicus's Observatory (400 Shield Wonder - best built in a high trade city). Leads to Navigation and Physics (needs Chemistry).
Banking (1248 beakers) - allows Banks (160 shields). Leads to Economics and Democracy (needs Printing Press - which CFC is researching at 40 turn speed).
Music Theory (960 beakers) - allows JS Bach's Cathedral (600 Shield Wonder - best built in GA or maybe before is we try for Leos and lose).
Also for consideration (now and afterwards):
Monarchy (576 beakers) - Allows Government change to Monarchy (which we don;t need) and The Hanging Gardens (300 sheild Wonder - best built in a riverside city like Bananatopia).
Economics (1344 beakers) - Allows Smith's Trading Company (600 sheild Wonder - another good GA build).
Navigation (1344 beakers) - Allows Galleys and Caravels safe Travel in Oceans, Oceanic Trade and Magellan's Voyage (400 Shield Wonder - possible GA trigger). Oh, and Explorers (20 shield unit), which might be useful against GWT/GCA for Pillaging tiles.
My Recommendation to the team:
We should work this group of techs in this order (see reasoning below): Monarchy -> Astro -> Music -> Bank -> Eco -> Nav (the last 2 are interchangeable).
Reason for Monarchy first - the ability to build HG. Even though it will be Obsolete when we get Steam Power, that tech is still a while to come. Currently, in all of our cities, without using specialist/lux slider, we are limited to size 6. This is increased by various amounts with things like Marketplaces (100 Shields), Temples (60 Shields), Coliseums (120 shields) & Cathedrals (160 shields - requires Temple first). Also, we can do Monarchy in 4 turns (and have it done just before the Palace move) at at least 2 turns of 70% research. This is CURRENTLY at -60 GPT (-20 CFC adjusted GPT) and will be reduced as we build more cities over the next several turns. And we should be able to turn down the reseach slider before the 4 turns has been completed. We can also do it in 5 turns at 50% and definitely be able to turn it down to get more gold.
Why would we want to build HG: timing of a lot of things, especially when dealing with our main attribute, which is Commercial. Having HG would allow our cities to get to size 7 WITHOUT any additional items having to be built first. This would allow me to build Aquaducts ASAP and get them to size 7 ASAP and THAT will give us the extra Trade for being over size 7. Further, I can delay building Markets in those cities until they get to size 7 and have them available for the growth up to size 9 (with timed Growth and Worker additions) when the Markers do come online. This will especially help our New Core to get up to speed that much faster and then be that much more robust when we get our GA!!
Another reason for Monarchy first, we will be researched it on the lower beaker turns before the Palace move. This will save the power of our new dual core for the first turn of research into Astro. Both Trip and I have sim'ed this out and our estimates are that our research beaker potential will increase by a good sum, right after the palace move. My figures shows a 25% increase in beaker counts after the move. And this is before the last of the new cities are built and everything starts to grow.
I can show, that, IF we keep our research at 50% max and have a conservative to moderate growth in our BPT counts, that researching just the Astro, Music, Bank, Eco & Nav; that these 5 techs will be researched JUST 2 turns before they would be done, if 5 turns of Monarchy research is done first. And this is with a growth from 157 BPT (right after Palace move) to 200 BPT, which is just before our GA (or before we would even need to change from Lighthouse to Magellan’s build). And we would be well on the way to our Next tech.
These assume 50% research
code:
Turn # BPT Tech # beakers # turns TOC rate of BPT increase
166 125 Monarchy 576 5 turns 0
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171 157 to 159 Astro 1344 9 turns 1 every 3 turns
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180 160 to 162 Music 960 6 turns 1 every 2 turns
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186 170 to 185 Banking 1248 7 turns 3 every 1 turn
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193 188 to 195 Economics 1344 8 turns 1 every 1 turn
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201 196 to 200 Navigation 1344 7 turns 1 every 1 turn (up to 200)
Turn 208 - done with these 6
code:
Turn # BPT Tech # beakers # turns TOC rate of BPT increase
166 125 Astro 1344 10 turns 0
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171 157 to 159 Change rate & Palace move 1 every 3 turns
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176 Music 960 7 turns
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180 160 to 162 Change Rate 1 every 2 turns
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183 160 to 162 Banking 1248 8 turns
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186 170 to 185 Change Rate 3 every 1 turn
191 170 to 185 Economics 1344 8 turns
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193 188 to 195 Change Rate 1 every 1 turn
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199 196 to 200 Navigation 1344 7 turns 1 every 1 turn (up to 200)
Turn 206 - done with these 5
* E_T thinks that is example is getting too complex, but he has been working on this for hours…..
In all of these examples, we wouldn’t not need to change our GA prebuild to Magellan’s until after Navigation is completed.
The main thing is, that we should take full advantage of our Impending Palace move and growth by getting rid of this smaller things a little sooner. With the advent of the duel core, the final city placements and our growth in economic power, these numbers are not inconceivable and could even be over conservative. If we want to have the shield capacity to Produce a GWT killer War Machine and the time to do it in, we will need to save our shields for more Units and less Happiness Improvements. This means getting the 2 wonders (HG and JSB) that will help us to do that. Also, when we do start the War, we can save our production for timely happiness Improvements that will help to combat a renewed War Weariness.
MoI E_T
Last edited by E_T on 17-03-2004 at 02:06
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:34
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Well, we just did send 600 gold to CGN and frankly, will not really see it back (if ever) for a very long time. So, IMHO, the Lux slider is not an option at this point in time. Also, that is effected by corruption and if a city doesn;t have enough basic trade, then it won;t have 1 gold going to lux. Having HG's would be the same across the board.
Example of a outlying cities build Queue:
Courthouse ->Markerplace -> Aquaduct (then can grow to size 7 safely)
OR
Courthouse -> Aquaduct (can grow to size 7, but needs specialist and it's growth is stalled)->Markerplace (can now grow to size 8)
THis same city with HG in place:
Courthouse -> Aquaduct (can grow to size 7)->Markerplace (can now grow to size 8).
In this instance, the city can be building it;s market while it;s growing (and if it does get to size 8 before the market is complete, then it can use a specialist for a short time, because the Market should be almost ready).
As for the Newer core cities, I can have them go this route:
Aquaduct -> Market but when it gets to size 7, it will need a specialist and the growth will be stunted while the needed Improvements are built.
Then it will need a temple for size 9 and a colusseum for size 11 (total of 180 shields). Alternatively, it could be building a Barracks(40 shields) and 140 shields of Mil Units (almost 5 horsemen if cutting Iron like we discussed OR 7 Knight builds). IMHO, the Mil Units are more Important.
E_T
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Dominae
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I completely disagree with the Monarchy plan. Reasons:
1. The Hanging Gardens will be obsolete way too quickly.
2. The Hanging Gardens' effect is really not that great.
3. We already built the Industrious Great Wall for our GA (also useless).
4. Monarchy (the governement) is best in the hands of our opponents.
5. Getting ourselves back into this game requires reaching the Industrial ASAP.
Dominae
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Dominae
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How much does one notch in the Lux slider cost us in Commerce at this time?
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Dominae
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Thanks Arnelos.
So, this is a very rough analysis, but at 18gpt (conservative estimate), it takes 32 turns for the Hanging Gardens to pay off the cost of Monarchy compared to using the Luxury slider. After this, we would enjoy the benefits of the Hanging Gardens for very turns until Steam Power came along.
Again, Commerce is only one issue. There's the fact that those 300 Shields could be better spend on another Wonder we could really get good mileage out of, and the fact that 4 turns is 4 turns in a close tech race.
Dominae
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:34
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O.k., I did a little bit of testing with my sim (again, corruption figures are off, so this might be more or less)
* E_T is working on a new set of sims to test how far off the corruption is in this game, but that's an issue for a different thread
With all of the cities that HAVE BEEN built in the turn right after the Palace move set to size 6 (anything that can NOT grow larger without Aquaduct) AND with several other cities set to a size that requires 10% lux slider (or 1 Sci specialist); this is my results, all research at 50% (BPT = beakers per turn, ALL GPT is not adjusted for CFC monies):
Without Lux slider and using Sci specialist:
254 BPT & +105 GPT
With Lux slider at 10% and putting specialist to work:
264 BPT & +61 GPT & 46 Entertainment cost
With HG:
264 BPT & +113 GPT
Differences:
HG to Specialist: +10 BPT (not counting Sci Specialist effects) & +8GPT.
10% Lux to Specialist: +10 BPT & -44 GPT
HG to 10% Lux: 0BPT & -52 GPT
a loss of 52 GPT, with no additional effects like Markets (or Libraries).
IF we are planning a Stealth Iron Unit buildup, for either the eventual Invasion by GWT/GCA or us even possibly invading them (all before RR i.e. Steam Power) then we will need LOTS of cash for upgrades (Leo;s does NOT come into this equation, if we get it, then good, but I really doubt it). Here are some figures.
First off, we need to increase our mobile Army, which is currently at 12 Knights. Figuring 35 to 45 Knights/Cavalry needed (figures work with 40 total), we need to build 28 more horses in stealth mode. We also will need to upgrade our Cats to Cannon, figuring a good 20 will do that task (don;t forget GWT's UBER CAT/PIKE Stack). We will also have around 5 to 6 galleys to upgrade to Caravels (depending on what tech is first, mind you). And then there is the Num Mercs to Musket Upgrade, we have 18 now, but 20 is a good number to deal with. We will not examine the cost for Gallion and Rifle Upgrades.
100 Gold per Horse to Cavalry @ 28 horses = 2800 Gold;
20 Gold per Knight = 240 Gold;
Total of 3040 Gold for upgrades to Cav alone
Num Merc to Musket is 60 Gold per with at least 20 NM's = 1200 Gold.
Galley to Caravel is 20 Gold with about 5 (6 hopefully) to upgrade = 100 Gold (or 120).
Cat to Cannon, figuring about 20, that's 800 Gold
All total (not including Gallions and even thinking of rifle upgrades), thats 5140 Gold needed over the next 40 to 60 turns.
And this does not include the expence of additional Improvement maintainance costs, Added Unit Costs and possilbe Short/Throughput costs. And then, when we do go to war with GWT/GCA (an inevitablity, not a possibility), there is still the War Weariness issue to deal with. Also for final consideration, the actions of CFC, will they stay aligned with us or fall in with GWT/GCA? Only the future will tell, but I'm going to be prepaired!!
With all of these things: The stealth Iron builds, the Inevitable Invasion, the need to increase our Economic power and even a few more things that all tie into this, the need for HG is great, if we are to attempt to accomplish all of these goals.
MoI E_T
Last edited by E_T on 17-03-2004 at 14:46
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:34
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quote:
Originally posted by Dominae
Thanks Arnelos.
So, this is a very rough analysis, but at 18gpt (conservative estimate), it takes 32 turns for the Hanging Gardens to pay off the cost of Monarchy compared to using the Luxury slider. After this, we would enjoy the benefits of the Hanging Gardens for very turns until Steam Power came along.
Again, Commerce is only one issue. There's the fact that those 300 Shields could be better spend on another Wonder we could really get good mileage out of, and the fact that 4 turns is 4 turns in a close tech race.
Dominae |
12 (11.076) turns @ 52 GPT. In this time frame, it's payed off even before our GA starts and that is still a ways from the end of this era (or even Steam Power, unless CGN gets it as a free tech - 1/3rd chance for that).
[EDIT] and the 52GPT is not taking into account the effects from our GA. We know that GWT is spending a bundle of cash (20%)with their Lux slider while they are in their GA and at war, it will likely be more when they get out of their GA, unless they trample CGN before the end of that.
* E_T needs to dig up the tread that shows when GWT's GA started.
[/edit]
And the analysis at the start is conservative, compaired to what my further sim testing results showed, so the "time loss" for that addition tech is very negligable.
MoI E_T
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Dominae
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Your analysis is telling me that we need Leo's, Smith's or Bach's way more than the Hanging Gardens.
Dominae
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:34
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Here is my reasoning, we can get HG as soon as possible, trigger our GA with size 7 to 9 cities (with GL or Mags, likely in HoD), build bachs in the GA, allowing cities up to size 11, then work on getting things like temples, coluseums and Caths in them (with Max production, won't take long). Around that time, Steam power comes on the seen, making HG useless, but effective up to that point. Also, we will likely be at war sometime in there, so the effectiveness, even though it;s limited, is still there and it will fully benifit our economy to the extent that waiting the 5 turns for Monarchy will have an astounding effectiveness on our future research efforts.
And just to let you know, I could build HG in AP in 20 turns (possibly less), after it's Market is finished. And with HG in AP, I can get IT up to size 11 and not need anything else until Steam Power. THAT in combo with it's SPT and TPT power will make it a 20 SPT Power house that will produce 30 SPT while in a GA. That's 20 turns for a 600 Sheild wonder (Leos, JSB or Smiths).
Also, with the extra power that I can get, trade wise while in our GA, we can get (based on mods to current sim): Chemistry in 4 turns @50%; Physics, Metalurgy, Mil Trad, Theory of Grav & Magnet in 4 turns @ 60%. Of cource, we will have a larger pop base at that time and should have most if not all of Chem done before the GA starts. So, we would be entering the Ind Age (without Democracy) by the end of our GA. That would seem to me to be short enough.
The thing is, this is a short term Investment, especially because we can only do a stealth build for 7 turns, unless we have it building one of the other Wonders just to Misdirect what we are doing.
Again, I can't stress the amount of payback that this one small investment will make to our nation. Literally, If I have this, I'll give you all the game.
MoI E_T
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Dominae
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It's an economic fact that we win the game if we build the Hanging Gardens!?
Wait, let me try one: it's an economic fact that we lose the game if we build the Hanging Gardens.
Where are we now?
Dominae
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OPD
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Birmingham UK
Jun 2002
time: 05:34
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quote:
then work on getting things like temples, coluseums and Caths in them (with Max production, won't take long).
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Yeah but what about uni's and banks and every thing else that needs to be built.
Temples and Cathedrals are rubbish and not at all worth building (except perhaps if you are Rel and really short of luxs). Take the example of temples, aswell as costing 60 sheilds they need 1 gpt to maintian and give 1 happy face whereas 1 commerce spent on luxs also gives 1 happy face. Obviously it's not as simple as that and alot of commerce would be wasted making happy faces in cities that didn't need it, but that would be insignificant compared to the amount of sheilds required, especially considering 1 shields is worth 2 commerce.
The point remains that use of the lux slider will be needed and so HG will be irrelevant
quote:
And just to let you know, I could build HG in AP in 20 turns (possibly less), after it's Market is finished. And with HG in AP, I can get IT up to size 11 and not need anything else until Steam Power. THAT in combo with it's SPT and TPT power will make it a 20 SPT Power house that will produce 30 SPT while in a GA. That's 20 turns for a 600 Sheild wonder (Leos, JSB or Smiths).
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AP and other cities can be size 11 with a mp and 10% luxs
quote:
Here is my reasoning, we can get HG as soon as possible, trigger our GA with size 7 to 9 cities (with GL or Mags, likely in HoD), build bachs in the GA, allowing cities up to size 11, then work on getting things like temples, coluseums and Caths in them (with Max production, won't take long).
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How about this proposal, run 10% luxs to allow cities up to size 8 then build mp's allowing size 11 (12 in GA) then build unis and banks.
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asleepathewheel
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listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:34
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add me to the group that thinks monarchy/HG is a nutty idea at this point.
blowing 5 turns on that tech would go a long way towards narrowing the required tech gap between us and GWT.
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Arrian
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Kneel before Grog!
Jul 2001
time: 00:34
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Since we're researching now and getting gpt from CFC, I suggest Astronomy is the best choice.
AFAIK, many of our cities are still building marketplaces. After those, universities should come first over banks. So we don't need banking yet.
Banking is required for Economics, IIRC, but we will want to do a lengthy prebuild for Smith's anyway, so there is no particular rush there.
Astro gets us a set closer to Navigation.
E_T: if this were a simple choice of "build the HG, or not" then I might side with you. But it's not. It's also about spending time researching Monarchy, which is otherwise useless to us, and also about the fact that there are several other wonders we would MUCH rather have. We aren't exactly swimming in cities that can be devoted to wonder production, are we?
-Arrian
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17-03-2004 01:40
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