04-04-2004 06:25									#61
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Projections were surprisingly accurate.

	04-04-2004 06:28									#62
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Well?

Ready to turtle on your "old men" comments?

GO OILERS!!!!

	04-04-2004 06:33									#63
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Canucks vs Flames, first round. Who will win, and by how much?

Vancouver in (at most) 6.

	04-04-2004 06:35									#64
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Nope. It just so happens that the "old" players in your examples tend to be better. There's no correlation between experience in the playoffs and doing better. Better players will do better.

In fact, I would expect the few people who've won a cup more than once to be less motivated than, say, the Flames, which is full of young talent that have never won a cup, but have tried for seven years...

	04-04-2004 06:36									#65
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The Leafs are currently 5-0 up on the Sens, and the latter are rapidly losing their composure due to the shellacking they're taking.

I guess the Leafs have wrapped up home ice.


**** THE SENS!!!!

	04-04-2004 06:43									#66
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Nope. It just so happens that the "old" players in your examples tend to be better. There's no correlation between experience in the playoffs and doing better. Better players will do better.

Yes, they are better because they have more experience, especially in the playoffs.

Teams trade for people who are proven playoff performers. That makes them more likely to produce a winning team.

As I've shown you, no team without a signficant number of playoff veterans has won the Cup in the last five years. In fact it goes back further than that.

Rookie teams may do well, but they basically cannot win.

quote: In fact, I would expect the few people who've won a cup more than once to be less motivated than, say, the Flames, which is full of young talent that have never won a cup, but have tried for seven years...

Uh...no... the kind of people that win multiple cups are like Nieuwendyk who gives it everything for every game. Messier is a good example, too.

	04-04-2004 06:46									#67
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Uh...no... the kind of people that win multiple cups are like Nieuwendyk who gives it everything for every game. Messier is a good example, too.

Yeah, or people like Ray Bourque or Trevor Linden...

	04-04-2004 06:51									#68
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Players who have played in high pressure environments can handle it better than those who haven't. Experience matters.

That is why a team like Anaheim might made the final. But they were never going to win, the Devils were simply too savvy and knew that they couldn't be beat on home ice.

The playoffs are a hell of a lot different than the regular season. The standard of refereeing is different, tactics are more defensive, there's almost no fighting and special teams are to the fore. The pressure ratchets way up too. A cool, experienced head is necessary. That is what players like Joe Nieuwendyk bring to a team.

The record proves that it is almost impossible for a team with little playoff experience to win the Stanley Cup, no matter how well organized and how motivated. Eventually, they will come up against a smart team that will find them out.

	04-04-2004 06:53									#69
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quote: Originally posted by joncha Yeah, or people like Ray Bourque or Trevor Linden...

Bourque is an excellent example. He personally carried that Colorado team through games six and seven of their winning series. Scott Stevens was outstanding in the Devils' 2000 win, even though he didn't score much. And the "grumpy old men" line served Dallas well the year before.

Linden deserves to play for a better team.

	04-04-2004 07:33									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon I guess the Leafs have wrapped up home ice.

And the best that I can figure, they've got a Canadian opponent. Everything rides on the Boston/New Jersey game tomorrow; both the Atlantic & Northeast titles are up for grabs (though NJ can still win the Atlantic if they lose, providing Philadelphia also loses tomorrow).

If Boston wins:
Boston leapfrogs Toronto and wins the Northeast with 104 points to 103. Boston gets #2 and plays #7 Montreal (classic!). Toronto drops to #4 and plays #5 Ottawa (yet another Battle of Ontario). New Jersey and Philadelpha meet up, with Philly getting #3 by beating New York, otherwise New Jersey gets #3.

If New Jersey wins:
Toronto takes the Northeast with 103 points and more wins than Boston. They get #2 and draw #7 Montreal (the match-up CBC is dying for). Boston falls all the way down to #6 and plays #3 New Jersey. Ottawa hangs on to #4 and gets #5 Philadelphia.

A NJ/Boston tie also produces scenario #2, though Philadelphia can still take #3 seed with a win and drop New Jersey to #5 instead (which would doom the Senators).

#1 Tampa Bay (that just looks weird, don't it? ) gets #8 New York no matter what.

	04-04-2004 07:40									#71
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Excellent post, Optimus. Thanks for the info.

I'd love to see the Leafs face Montreal.

Philly must be shitting themselves at the prospect of Ottawa, who have dumped them twice now at my count.

Anyway, 6-0 is better than I dreamed of for today's result. And my soccer team won too, so it's been a productive day.

	04-04-2004 08:16									#72
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quote: #1 Tampa Bay (that just looks weird, don't it? )

God yes!

It's like the NY Giants going 15-1 in the NFL next year.

	04-04-2004 08:38									#73
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quote: Originally posted by optimus2861 If Boston wins: Boston leapfrogs Toronto and wins the Northeast with 104 points to 103. Boston gets #2 and plays #7 Montreal (classic!). Toronto drops to #4 and plays #5 Ottawa (yet another Battle of Ontario).

Go Bruins.

6-0 drubbing of the Sens. Belfour is hot. Two shutouts in the last two games! Good night Sens.

The Leafs are going to the Cup.

	04-04-2004 08:59									#74
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I want to see the Leafs play the Habs.

	04-04-2004 09:37									#75
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It's 4-1 Vancouver at the end of the second... so it looks like the Oilers are out and the Vancouver-Calgary series in on.

edit: I guess Calgary still has a good chance to finish ahead of Dallas... I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow to find out.

Last edited by joncha on 04-04-2004 at 09:48

	04-04-2004 09:51									#76
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Typical Oilers. Well I suppose that at least Calgary aren't the laughing stock of Canadian hockey for a change.

	04-04-2004 23:29									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon But winning is everything for us, that's why anything less than a Cup leads to calls for the coach's head.

LMAO!!


Maybe to the fans, hence their continued support of mediocre teams. As long as there are bums in the seats the ownership really doesn't care. The Ballard years were a classic example of this. I will grant you the new ownership is better, but it's all relative.

	05-04-2004 00:03									#78
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WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! OILERS GOIN' TO THE PLAYOFFS!

(in my mind.)

Ahem. Well, we gave it a good run, boys. We sucked in the first half of the year, but we learned from our mistakes, and we made things interesting down the stretch. As a fan, that's all I can ask of the team in a situation like that.

LET'S GO OILERS, LET'S GO (next year... or the year after, depending on the CBA)!!!

	05-04-2004 00:56									#79
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Holy rivalries, Batman!

Toronto vs. Ottawa?
Philly vs. New Jersey?
Boston vs. Montreal?

The first round of the East is gonna be fantastic.

	05-04-2004 01:26									#80
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quote: Originally posted by Tingkai The Leafs are going to the Cup.

Pfft. Not with that defence . The Senators are dead meat, though; they haven't had their heads on straight all season, Lalime has been downright brutal by times, and that performance last night was the capper. They had a shot at the division title and utterly tanked. The Penguins would've beaten that sorry performance last night. Leafs in five, tops, and Jacques Martin gets fired after the series.

I'll do a full set of predictions after the western seeds get settled. We know #1 Detroit has #8 Nashville, and #2 San Jose gets #7 St. Louis. Vancouver's #3 and Colorado's #4, but Dallas & Calgary haven't settled #5 and #6 yet (though Dallas is beating up on Chicago as I write, which would give them #5).

	05-04-2004 01:32									#81
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The Flames and Ducks are playing right now.

Check out what the Ducks have been up to for penalties. Somebody was a bad boy.

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	05-04-2004 02:17									#82
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Flames up 1-0, Iggy gets #41.

	05-04-2004 03:46									#83
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...and the Ducks win, 2-1.

	05-04-2004 04:00									#84
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But Iggy got #41, placing him in first (tied) for goals.

	05-04-2004 05:13									#85
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quote: Originally posted by optimus2861 Pfft. Not with that defence . .

I assume that the winky means you are joking. I wouldn't swap any other six for the leafs top six.

	05-04-2004 05:15									#86
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quote: Originally posted by Wezil Maybe to the fans, hence their continued support of mediocre teams. As long as there are bums in the seats the ownership really doesn't care. The Ballard years were a classic example of this. I will grant you the new ownership is better, but it's all relative.

They are pretty good now. Getting Leetch was the best trade this season bar none.

	05-04-2004 05:20									#87
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Predictions:

EAST: ROUND ONE

Tampa Bay vs. Islanders - Islanders in 6
Boston vs Montreal - Boston in 7
Philadelphia vs. New Jersey - Philadelphia in 6
Toronto vs. Ottawa - Toronto in 5

WEST: ROUND ONE

Detroit vs. Nashville - Detroit in 4
St Louis vs. San Jose - San Jose in 6
Vancouver vs. Calgary - Vancouver in 6
Colorado vs. Dallas - Dallas in 7.

I don't know the likely second round matchups but I'm going for Detroit over Toronto in the final.

	05-04-2004 05:27									#88
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Most of those predictions don't make any sense...

Particularly Dallas over Colorado. Have you paid attention to how Dallas has played lately?

	05-04-2004 05:29									#89
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My Predictions:

EAST: ROUND ONE

Tampa Bay vs. Islanders - Tampa in 5
Boston vs Montreal - Boston in 7
Philadelphia vs. New Jersey - Jersey in 6
Toronto vs. Ottawa - Toronto in 7

WEST: ROUND ONE

Detroit vs. Nashville - Detroit in 4
St Louis vs. San Jose - St Louis in 5
Vancouver vs. Calgary - Vancouver in 5
Colorado vs. Dallas - Colorado in 7.

I call a Vancouver/New Jersey final.

	05-04-2004 05:30									#90
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Put 'em up Asher. If only to give yourself bragging rights when round 2 rolls around.