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Defiant is offline Defiant
King
WISCONSIN
Aug 1999
time: 05:35
  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Whaleboy
A democracy in Iraq won't last long. It's not a magic bullet, it is a political system with major flaws and failings, just like the one it replaced. Different cultures, religions etc are compatible with democracy to varying degrees. I suspect Iraq and the ME in general is not.


That is why we have to stay there and let is work over time, nothing works overnight, once freedom take hold, any freedom, then you can let it flourish. In time if they want to be socialists(poor bastards) then so be it, but we have to set the root.

Defiant is offline Defiant
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WISCONSIN
Aug 1999
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:36
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quote:
Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe


Not until we reinvest in additional refineries.


True, but OPEC cutting 4% or 1 million barrels a day doesn't help either.

Ambro2000 is offline Ambro2000
Warlord
The great city of Möllevången
May 1999
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:37 Visit Ambro2000's homepage!
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Ofcourse it is!

And I forgot the importancy for USA to put a puppy- regime, just as Saddam was before he started to disobey so they can continue there evil imperialistic plans in the middle east.

Defiant is offline Defiant
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Aug 1999
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:37
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quote:
Originally posted by Ambro2000
Ofcourse it is!

And I forgot the importancy for USA to put a puppy- regime, just as Saddam was before he started to disobey so they can continue there evil imperialistic plans in the middle east.


How puppet regimes are Germany and Japan now?

Ogie Oglethorpe is offline Ogie Oglethorpe
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Dec 1999
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:38
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Since 1948 US forces had no part of internal security in germany, which had its own police, and then its own large army.-sicne 1952 ditto for Japan.

Notice how it took 3 years to had power back to the Germans, 7 for the Japanese.

I guess Iraq must be so much easier to do it in 18 months...

or maybe the admin. did not want to be in power in Iraq come election time? Nah, the Bush amdin. would never put the future of iraq in danger for purely political considerations!


I believe thats why they call it an INTERIM Iraqi government. The expectation is that US troops remain until such time as Iraqis are a) completely self sufficent and b) no longer wish us there.


Only one of the two conditions are arguably fulfilled at present.

GePap is offline GePap
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Nov 2001
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:39
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quote:
Originally posted by Defiant


We are one year into it, we literally crushed the militaries and people of Germany and Japan and unless we want to play that same game, which we can, then this will take a little longer, but hopefully fewer lives.


Ah, but you forget the admins. own line: this wasn;t a war against the Iraqi people, since they were living under a terrible despot that was crushing them! So we liberated the people of Iraq, who unlike the people of Germany and Japan shared no blame for their leader's ills.

Maybe playing of that line, we can justify giving power over Asap to the blameless Iraqi people...but then, we did utterly end the military (we crushed it, then we let it go home) and all the burocracies of the old regimes fell apart (unlike in Germany and Japan were we sued many parts of the old systems that still worked after the war), so if anything, Iraq might be less ready for quick self-rule than Germany was in 1946, or Japan in 1946.

Ambro2000 is offline Ambro2000
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May 1999
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:39 Visit Ambro2000's homepage!
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lets all hope that the Bush regime want fledge a war against them now should we!?!

GePap is offline GePap
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Nov 2001
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:41
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quote:
Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe


I believe thats why they call it an INTERIM Iraqi government. The expectation is that US troops remain until such time as Iraqis are a) completely self sufficent and b) no longer wish us there.


Only one of the two conditions are arguably fulfilled at present.


Now if only the admin. would finally come up with the plan under which foreing troops enforcing security within another sovereign state would be legal, and appreciated by a mayority of the populace in said new democratic regime....But i am sure they can cobble something together in time that will work like a charm.

Spiffor is offline Spiffor
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Nov 2001
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:41
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The US must remain to clean the mess indeed. Especially now that coalition troops are beginning to be tired with it.

Unlike some in this thread, I don't think the violent groups are mainstream, and I suppose it is pretty clear the average Iraqi wants peace instead of fear (despite hating or distrusing the Yanks).

However, the Yanks should try to "win the hearts of the people" instead of behaving like they do. When you read Oerdin's blog, there are quite a few appalling things, which make it obvious many Iraqis will see no problem in the death of Americans (for example, when they drive without stopping at the red bulb, and take steps to make extra damage on the many cars they bump )

I'd favor the three states course, but I don't know if it is feasible, if the Iraqis would accept being divided by the occupier. The Kurds will, but I don't think the others will.

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King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:41
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Unfortunately, Religion and Democracy make poor bedfellows. You cannot expect a muslim religious leader to teach tolerance. I, like Gepap, am very interested to see the administrations vision of post June 30 Iraq.

Defiant is offline Defiant
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Aug 1999
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:43
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Ah, but you forget the admins. own line: this wasn;t a war against the Iraqi people, since they were living under a terrible despot that was crushing them! So we liberated the people of Iraq, who unlike the people of Germany and Japan shared no blame for their leader's ills.

Maybe playing of that line, we can justify giving power over Asap to the blameless Iraqi people...but then, we did utterly end the military (we crushed it, then we let it go home) and all the burocracies of the old regimes fell apart (unlike in Germany and Japan were we sued many parts of the old systems that still worked after the war), so if anything, Iraq might be less ready for quick self-rule than Germany was in 1946, or Japan in 1946.


GePap,
Japan still had burocracies but Germany was devastated after the war. Iraq is much more complicated because of the three different factions, Kurds, Sunni Muslims and Shiites. I think we made a mistake by not crushing the Sunni triangle and this is part of the result of that. Iraq will take a long time, but we have to do it.

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King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:45
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quote:
Originally posted by Spiffor
I'd favor the three states course, but I don't know if it is feasible, if the Iraqis would accept being divided by the occupier. The Kurds will, but I don't think the others will.


I like the three state idea as well. Other than Turkey's objection to a free Kurdistan, I don't know that any other ME government would have a problem with it (Other than the standard Pan-Arab argument). Plus, Turkey had their chance to have a helping hand in Iraq and walked away from it...

Defiant is offline Defiant
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WISCONSIN
Aug 1999
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:47
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quote:
Originally posted by PLATO


I like the three state idea as well. Other than Turkey's objection to a free Kurdistan, I don't know that any other ME government would have a problem with it (Other than the standard Pan-Arab argument). Plus, Turkey had their chance to have a helping hand in Iraq and walked away from it...


The only problem is, each individually can not sustain attacks from other nations. Tell me honestly you don't think Iran wouldn't prey on a weak shiite southern Iraq, or like you said, Turkey preying on a northern Iraq or for that matter a stronger shiite southern Iraq picking on a weadened sunni middle Iraq, that is wishful thinking.

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
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Jun 2000
time: 00:35
  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:50 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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The U.S. has already lost. With the Shi'ites fighting us now, It's only a matter of time before the country decends into Chaos again.

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:35
  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:50
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quote:
Originally posted by Defiant


GePap,
Japan still had burocracies but Germany was devastated after the war. Iraq is much more complicated because of the three different factions, Kurds, Sunni Muslims and Shiites. I think we made a mistake by not crushing the Sunni triangle and this is part of the result of that. Iraq will take a long time, but we have to do it.


Germany was physically devastated yes, but the burocrats were there and were put back to work without too much lagtime. So overall, the Nazi state did not collapse utterly like the Saddam regime, AND many of the arms of the Nazi state were in fact much older systems under the Republic and Empire.

As for "crushing the sunni triangle" HOW? Without enough troops? and how exactly do you crush those you just liberated? And then, of course, you set up massive Sunni grievences against the new regime, just adding an underlying rift waiting to rear its ugly head.

GePap is offline GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:35
  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:53
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quote:
Originally posted by PLATO


I like the three state idea as well. Other than Turkey's objection to a free Kurdistan, I don't know that any other ME government would have a problem with it (Other than the standard Pan-Arab argument). Plus, Turkey had their chance to have a helping hand in Iraq and walked away from it...


Well. lets see:

Turkey, Iran and Syria would all work against an independent Kurdish state that may then act in ways, or act as a pull for their own Kurdish minorities.

Saudi Arabia and all the Gulf principalities, ruled by Sunni princes, would object to an independent Shi'ite state that could threaten them, with regards to their Shi'a minorities, or mayorities.

The Sunni of iraq would not take lightly to being given a rump state-and the Shi'ites would not want to lose control of the capital Baghdad

so in fact, the only people in Iraq who would want a split and work for it are the Kurds, and that would be a massive mess.

Vanguard is offline Vanguard
Warlord
Monster Island
Apr 1999
time: 05:35
  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:54
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Say, Saddam Hussein is still available, isn't he? He did a good job maintaining order in Iraq.

Too funny.

Defiant is offline Defiant
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WISCONSIN
Aug 1999
time: 05:35
  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:55
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Germany was physically devastated yes, but the burocrats were there and were put back to work without too much lagtime. So overall, the Nazi state did not collapse utterly like the Saddam regime, AND many of the arms of the Nazi state were in fact much older systems under the Republic and Empire.

As for "crushing the sunni triangle" HOW? Without enough troops? and how exactly do you crush those you just liberated? And then, of course, you set up massive Sunni grievences against the new regime, just adding an underlying rift waiting to rear its ugly head.


The Sunni Triangle is the support for Saddam, everybody keeps saying it is only a few in this area doing the damage, I don't think that is so, way too much support in this area, Saddam treated the people in this area much better than the north or the south so I believe they blame us for their collapse of their leader.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:56
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GePap. given the ovewhelming support both on the governing council and from even such figures as Ayatollah Sistani, for the continued presence of Coalition forces, it is virtually certain that any new sovereign Iraq provisional govt will negotiate a status of forces agreement. This is NOT controversial.

What remains controversial is the exact makeup of the new govt. It is generally agreed that it will be an expanison of the current IGC, but it is not generally agreed by how much or by what method. That is something Lakhtar Brahimi of the UN is currently helping to negotiate with political groups in Iraq.

Your point about the status of forces agreement is a red herring. I know of NO serious commentator on Iraq who expects that to be an obstacle.

Clearly what is required is a commitment to stay the course both for the next 3 months, AND after (per a status of forces agreement with the transitional govt) The key question now is NOT international legality, but coalition, and especially American, willpower in the face of challenges on the ground in Iraq.

On this I am optimistic. The virtually certain Democratic nominee, John Kerry, has made statements on the necessity of staying the course and winning in Iraq. This not only enables George Bush to stay the course, but makes in very difficult for him to do otherwise.

Congratulations to Sen. Kerry.

GePap is offline GePap
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Nov 2001
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:57
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quote:
Originally posted by Defiant


The Sunni Triangle is the support for Saddam, everybody keeps saying it is only a few in this area doing the damage, I don't think that is so, way too much support in this area, Saddam treated the people in this area much better than the north or the south so I believe they blame us for their collapse of their leader.


Yes, they did benefit form Saddam, and one wonders why the amdin. did not seem to think perhaps they would not appriciate being liberated as much as other iraqis.

But again, how would we "crush them"?

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 20:59
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Note, Anthony Cordesmann, a leading critic of the neo con strategy in Iraq, notably the decision to keep US forces low, has stated that the insurgency is supported by a minority of Sunni Arabs. He estimates about 6% of the total Iraqi population. Sunni Arabs make up about 20% of the population of Iraq - ergo less than a third of all Sunni Arabs in Iraq.

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  Old Post 05-04-2004 21:00
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
GePap. given the ovewhelming support both on the governing council and from even such figures as Ayatollah Sistani, for the continued presence of Coalition forces, it is virtually certain that any new sovereign Iraq provisional govt will negotiate a status of forces agreement. This is NOT controversial.


Who said it was?

quote:

What remains controversial is the exact makeup of the new govt. It is generally agreed that it will be an expanison of the current IGC, but it is not generally agreed by how much or by what method. That is something Lakhtar Brahimi of the UN is currently helping to negotiate with political groups in Iraq.


This is what Sistani disapproves of, and given that the interim government has no real democratric base, it wopuld be interesting to see how it fared under elections.

quote:

Your point about the status of forces agreement is a red herring. I know of NO serious commentator on Iraq who expects that to be an obstacle.


How many have brought the point up? So it will be the US ambassador giving orders to US troops about taking operations in Iraqi cities? Yeah, says much about the authority of the new interim government....

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 21:04
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Yes, they did benefit form Saddam, and one wonders why the amdin. did not seem to think perhaps they would not appriciate being liberated as much as other iraqis.

But again, how would we "crush them"?


Of course not all Sunni Arabs benefited - some were themselves the victims of torture, murder, etc.

Some tribes and clans benefitted more than others, apparently. Meanwhile some Sunni Arabs have done relatively well under the coalition, while others have done worse.

How do we crush the insurgents - the methods the Marines are adopting in Fallujah is to cordon off the city, then proceed a section at a time, looking for weapons, and insurgents. Meanwhile we should improve conditions in cities OTHER than Fallujah, showing the benefits to communities that cooperate. And more broadly we need a political arrangement that will give Sunni arabs a stake in the new Iraq, so at least those who benefitted relatively little under Saddam will support the new regime.

Defiant is offline Defiant
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 21:07
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Yes, they did benefit form Saddam, and one wonders why the amdin. did not seem to think perhaps they would not appriciate being liberated as much as other iraqis.

But again, how would we "crush them"?


Literally, you bring in the Abrams in and locate throughout the city, one rock throwing, any armed civilians you turn loose the chain guns, if an area is hot like parading civilians against the US presence you call in an air strike on the parading civilians. If the leader of Falluja says we are targets, you kill him, if there is an uprise you suppress it with firepower, they will give up or there won't be many left.

Defiant is offline Defiant
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 21:08
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


Of course not all Sunni Arabs benefited - some were themselves the victims of torture, murder, etc.

Some tribes and clans benefitted more than others, apparently. Meanwhile some Sunni Arabs have done relatively well under the coalition, while others have done worse.

How do we crush the insurgents - the methods the Marines are adopting in Fallujah is to cordon off the city, then proceed a section at a time, looking for weapons, and insurgents. Meanwhile we should improve conditions in cities OTHER than Fallujah, showing the benefits to communities that cooperate. And more broadly we need a political arrangement that will give Sunni arabs a stake in the new Iraq, so at least those who benefitted relatively little under Saddam will support the new regime.


In Falluja, I don't think they are insurgents, I believe it is the people of Falluja.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 21:09
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


quote:

"What remains controversial is the exact makeup of the new govt. It is generally agreed that it will be an expanison of the current IGC, but it is not generally agreed by how much or by what method. That is something Lakhtar Brahimi of the UN is currently helping to negotiate with political groups in Iraq. "

This is what Sistani disapproves of, and given that the interim government has no real democratric base, it wopuld be interesting to see how it fared under elections.


It seems that Sistani may be willing to accept a transitional govt that ISNT too democractic, since such a govt would be more explicitly PROVISIONAL, and would be less likely to make permanent laws. In any case that is being discussed currently. Of coruse the negotiations are difficult - this is a complex political situation. I fail to see how this relates to the point of staying the course.



quote:

Your point about the status of forces agreement is a red herring. I know of NO serious commentator on Iraq who expects that to be an obstacle.


How many have brought the point up? So it will be the US ambassador giving orders to US troops about taking operations in Iraqi cities? Yeah, says much about the authority of the new interim government....



Does the current Afghan govt give orders to US forces in Afghanistan? No. Of course it will be better when the Iraqi govt can take full security responsibility - but what does this have to with "staying the course"?

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  Old Post 05-04-2004 21:09
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quote:
Originally posted by Defiant


Literally, you bring in the Abrams in and locate throughout the city, one rock throwing, any armed civilians you turn loose the chain guns, if an area is hot like parading civilians against the US presence you call in an air strike on the parading civilians. If the leader of Falluja says we are targets, you kill him, if there is an uprise you suppress it with firepower, they will give up or there won't be many left.




I am sorry, but I can onyl laugh at something so ridiculous! Oh yes, we went to war to Liberate, and lest back that up by committing massive war crimes, crushing all decent, and trying to best Saddam at his own game, only further north! Cause it shows how much better the US is morally!

GePap is offline GePap
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  Old Post 05-04-2004 21:11
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
Does the current Afghan govt give orders to US forces in Afghanistan? No. Of course it will be better when the Iraqi govt can take full security responsibility - but what does this have to with "staying the course"?


I expect better annalogies from you.

Sorry, BUT US forces are there mainly to hunt AQ and the Taliban, not to provide security nationwide. There are about 12,000 US troops in afghanistan, with most security provided by the nacent Afghan army, OR by local militias.

We have 100,000 troops in Iraq-a HUGE difference.

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From AFP


[q[This is the first step in this long journey, which God willing, will lead, in the end, to the formation of this (interim) government on schedule," Brahimi said after a meeting with the US-installed Governing Council.


He hoped his efforts would also lead "to the well-prepared elections which will enable the Iraqi people to have a government that is elected through transparent, democratic elections."


Brahimi said he was received with a "warm welcome and... (in a) brotherly atmosphere... and we had a long talk about the mission which we are undertaking."


"This mission is... to assist in the formation of the administration, which will take over responsibility on the occasion of the return of sovereignty to the Iraqi people, and to cooperate with the parties in preparations for elections due to be conducted early next year."


Massud Barzani, current president of the Governing Council, said "discussions with the United Nations focused on the question of elections and the transfer of power."


"This was an initial meeting, Mr Brahimi will need some time to conduct consultations with all the parties both in the Governing Council and outside the Governing Council," he said.


"We welcome... Brahimi and his delegation, and the Iraqi people welcome him as well," he said.


"The Governing Council has been listening to his valuable observations. There will be close cooperation between the Governing Council specialized committees and Mr Brahimi and the accompanying delegation." [/q]

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quote:
Originally posted by GePap




I am sorry, but I can onyl laugh at something so ridiculous! Oh yes, we went to war to Liberate, and lest back that up by committing massive war crimes, crushing all decent, and trying to best Saddam at his own game, only further north! Cause it shows how much better the US is morally!



What war crimes, it is a war and we are losing lives, I suppose we should have been brought up on war crimes when we bombed Germany and civilians died. If they are parading against and mutilating our bodies, it is a combatent and response should be just as deadly.
The moral is lost when they start multilating our bodies and killing our soldiers, if it is a war, then it is a war.
We are not liberating the supporters of Saddam, GePap and that's who these people are.

 
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