07-05-2004 04:53									#481
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Nabokov is good, but not as good. You guys had Kipper as your THIRD goaltender, so this argument doesn't even fly. The Shark's management is incompetent, which is why they won't win the cup.

No one serious thinks that any other team than Tampa is going to win the Cup.

	07-05-2004 04:54									#482
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I think Tampa or Philly. But who cares...

	07-05-2004 04:57									#483
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Oh, I was contradicting Asher. Isn't that a good reason?

	07-05-2004 05:02									#484
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It's not hard, just tell the truth.

	07-05-2004 05:13									#485
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quote: Originally posted by Oncle Boris No one serious thinks that any other team than Tampa is going to win the Cup.

Everyone serious picked Vancouver over Calgary.
Everyone serious picked Detroit over Calgary.
And now everyone series thinks Tampa is going to win. Excuse me while I gag...

	07-05-2004 05:43									#486
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Flyers over Lightning
Flames over Sharks

Flyers over Flames

	07-05-2004 06:37									#487
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Everyone serious picked Vancouver over Calgary. Everyone serious picked Detroit over Calgary. And now everyone series thinks Tampa is going to win. Excuse me while I gag...

If Calgary wins the Cup, I write you a love letter.

	07-05-2004 06:41									#488
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ahser be so HaPpY!!!

	07-05-2004 07:09									#489
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Everyone serious picked Vancouver over Calgary. Everyone serious picked Detroit over Calgary..

Which excludes you, by your own admission, from being considered a serious person.

	07-05-2004 07:13									#490
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Which excludes you, by your own admission, from being considered a serious person.

Are you really this stupid?

It was a way of shooting down his argument -- the "serious" people being synonymous with morons who are 0 for 2.

	07-05-2004 07:20									#491
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I'm not stupid enough to leave myself open to such an obvious retort.

He's right. Smart money went on Detroit or Vancouver. The fact that they were wrong doesn't mean it wasn't the best bet.

What you are doing is one of the most common fallacies. You're like the guy who bets on the 1/100 chance as opposed to the 99/100 and then claims he was smart for doing so. In fact he was an idiot, since the odds were the other way - even if he did turn out lucky.

Trying to justify irrational predictions with the aid of hindsight is one of the human race's favourite games. But it still doesn't stop them from being irrational predictions.

	07-05-2004 07:36									#492
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon I'm not stupid enough to leave myself open to such an obvious retort.

No, you were stupid enough to make the incredibly lame retort. No skin off my back...

I wasn't betting based on chance, I was betting based on watching the teams gel and play all season long. Maybe I'm just a bit more intelligent about how I determine who will win, rather than looking at roster stats and 'experience' like you seem to do.

	07-05-2004 07:38									#493
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Sometimes a person can have good reason for betting against the favourite. Perhaps they know something other people don't (e.g. key players are carrying injuries).

Years ago I confidently predicted that Holyfield would knock Tyson out. No one believed me, but it was a no brainer. Tyson was past his prime and had succeeded in all his recent fights by bullying his opponent into submission. In Holyfield he was facing a guy who was more skilled than anyone he ever fought and who had demonstrated that he couldn't be bullied. In the end that's exactly what happened. Tyson attempted to dominate Holyfield, but the latter stood toe to toe with him and Tyson didn't know what to do. In the end the fight had to be stopped because he was taking such a whipping.

As for Calgary vs Vancouver, smart money was on the Canucks. In the end it was a pretty even series that came down to overtime in the seventh game. The fact that this happened meant that people probably overestimated the Canucks, but that doesn't mean that they should have bet on Calgary. That series went down to the wire.

Detroit just look shot. Most people thought that last year's performance against the Ducks was an aberration. Turns out that wasn't true. They just don't have the killer instinct any more.

I'm not going to make any picks on the current series. I have no idea of who will win out of Calgary and San Jose, nor Philly and Tampa (Tampa swept the season series, but I don't know whether they'll be able to carry that on). I think the East will beat the West this year because we had the stronger conference.

	07-05-2004 07:44									#494
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quote: Originally posted by Asher No, you were stupid enough to make the incredibly lame retort. No skin off my back... I wasn't betting based on chance, I was betting based on watching the teams gel and play all season long. Maybe I'm just a bit more intelligent about how I determine who will win, rather than looking at roster stats and 'experience' like you seem to do.

Rubbish. You just hit and hoped because it's your team. But hey, everyone does that (Leaf fans are just better at it than most).

Don't try to pretend otherwise, it won't wash.

Where did I look at roster stats? I bet on an experienced team winning because in the last 25 years only one team without much experience has won the Cup (Montreal) and even they had a Stanley Cup winning goaltender in net.

Why is it my fault that you can't acknowledge the painfully obvious? Hell, of course there's a chance that Calgary might win, but reason tells us it's a long shot - and that is why they are such a compelling story (as were the Ducks, Wild and Canes in recent years).

	07-05-2004 07:47									#495
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The painfully obvious is Belfour isn't as good as you may think he is, and Toronto got eliminated because they aren't a playoff-calibre team.

The Flames have been the whole second half of the season. With a leading scorer, a leading goalie, and a lot of hard work -- they're going all the way, or at least very close to it.

	07-05-2004 07:58									#496
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Belfour has been excellent these playoffs and the Leafs were unlucky not to take it to Game 7. Them's just the facts, I don't know what you have been watching. Belfour also had an excellent season; far better than he needed to prove otherwise to those who say he's finished.

We know who weren't playoff calibre teams this year, Nashville, St. Louis, and the Islanders.

I think you might be right about the Flames going to the final. I wouldn't discount it. But look what happened to the other underdogs that have done the same recently: Florida, Anaheim, and Carolina. When it came to the crunch, all their hard work wasn't enough. While in the first three rounds you might face teams that can be beaten this way, it tends to winnow out those who can't. By the time you get to the final it comes down to experience and skill because you can't even get to the final without busting a gut.

That's what happens in the NHL. You need some reason as to why the game has magically changed this year.

	07-05-2004 08:04									#497
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I don't know why you can't accept the facts. This is just the way sport is. The big guys almost always win. It's a bit like life really.

The only other competition that is like the NHL playoffs is the English FA Cup. The same thing happens there - occasionally some unlikely team will make the final after having knocked off a few giants, but they almost always lose to the big guys. I can only think of one occasion in 30 years that this hasn't happened.

	07-05-2004 08:09									#498
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I don't know what facts you're talking about -- the fact is, the Flames surprised all of the "serious" folks twice in a row, there's no reason they can't do it again.

The fact is, Calgary is in the top four -- which is definitely something to be proud of, and they do have what it takes to knock out any of the other three teams.

Those are the facts, which "facts" are you talking about?

	07-05-2004 08:11									#499
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I'm not gonna wade into the asher-agathon love fest. I just wanted to get a post in before we hit 500.

	07-05-2004 08:13									#500
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The facts that you have spent the thread studiously ignoring, of course.

	07-05-2004 08:18									#501
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon The facts that you have spent the thread studiously ignoring, of course.

The ones you can't even mention.

As a philosopher, I have doubts you even know what facts are.

Continue here: http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...threadid=114231

	07-05-2004 08:27									#502
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Grow up.

You are the dreamer here. I'm not going to waste more time pointing out the obvious.

Someone close this thread.

	07-05-2004 08:35									#503
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Oh come on, you're the ranting about the facts, but there are no facts in predictions, moron.

	07-05-2004 08:37									#504
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Someone close this thread.

oh my, on HIS COMMAND!!

w@nker

	07-05-2004 11:00									#505
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quote: You guys had Kipper as your THIRD goaltender, so this argument doesn't even fly. The Shark's management is incompetent, which is why they won't win the cup.

he deserved to be there - nabokov and toskala were better.

	07-05-2004 11:07									#506
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Zylka, do you realize that going around the censor just 3 posts before a mod will come and close the thread is the best way to be banned again?

You like it, right?

	07-05-2004 17:03									#507
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia he deserved to be there - nabokov and toskala were better.

See, it's thinking like this which is why the Sharks can't win -- they're clearly not all with it.

	07-05-2004 21:16									#508
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quote: Originally posted by Zylka oh my, on HIS COMMAND!! w@nker

Cause it's got above 500 posts, mastermind.

	08-05-2004 05:59									#509
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quote: And so Calgary is the only Canadian team still alive... GO FLAMES!!!

And the LAFFS go down.

That's the price you pay for dissing the "Nucks when they went to the Stanley Cup.

37 years and counting!

	08-05-2004 08:57									#510
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Diss the Canucks? What's the point in doing that? It would be like dissing the guy that no one ever notices; you know the type of guy who you finally notice five hours after he arrives.

Canadians either love or hate the Leafs, but the Canucks? Does anyone outside of BC really pay attention to them? When the Canucks crashed out of the first round, did anyone really care? Nope.