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Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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Jan 2003
time: 23:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 05:31 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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Call me a party pooper, I don't care, but I seriously concerned about the success of this strike due to the decisions taken during the last couple of polls. I think we have not stopped to consider the changing situation of the game and have entrenched into a possibly erroneous view of our chances, and objectives.


It is all regarding the Parthe strike, which I was initially very in favor of. That was 10-15 turns ago, while CGN was alive and kicking, when they didn't have a great leader to spare, where GWT's Ansars were down in Netatolia and when their core was likely to be very poorly defended.

Things have changed.

1) CGN is gone. GWT's fastmovers can be in both their cores by the time we land and can possibly be in position to hit our landing forces on the very first turn.

2) The Parth strike is coming hoplessly late because we incorrectly estimated at first that there was a larger sea lane towards GWT. By the time we approach Parthemunde, not only will GWT notice due to a 4-tile line of sight, but they'll have various turns of warning.

3) CGN's collapse means that CFC's landing will fall right at the teeth of GWT's transit area and might serve no purpose whatsoever. Whatever good we can find in CFC's trashing of GCA instead, this helps in no way the success of our own objectives.

4) Moreso, CFC's assault was to be in coordination to our own, as a support mission. Our new task for CFC is to work independently of our own objectives. In short: not only are we facing stronger opposition, we are doing this in essense without support from CFC.

5) GWT's GL was a temporary reason to strike at Parth since suddenly taking out the FP was a not-so permament victory. GWT has played into our hands by using up their FP in a brilliant deception move by us, and now we are spoiling it by continuing to consider Parth almost as an equal objective to the FP. If anything, the fact GWT wasted their GL should give more reason to hit at the FP with all we got.

6) Because Aidun said so (insider chat room joke)


Like the title of this thread says, we are getting too ambitious. Our victory disease is making us lose focus on what was the original intent of this attack and not only that, making us blind towards the fact that the world is NOT THE SAME as it was 15 turns ago when we first started debating this.

In any case, don't say I didn't warn you

-MZ

BigFree is offline BigFree

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Acampo, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 05:43
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Oh, quiet already!

Why must you start a new damn thread everytime you don't agree with the direction we are going?

We have plenty of threads which already have plenty of posts by you saying the same thing over and over. Please, get over yourself with your "In any case, don't say I didn't warn you " bull$hit!

No one ever said any of theses strikes were a sure thing; what makes you think you know what GTW will do with their troops? What makes you think that CGN won't cruise their Galley's South and cause GWT to follow them? What makes you think that CFC's landing in the South will result in no lost turns (in terms of responding to our landing) for GWT nor any lost units?

You assume too much MZ; you assume we have no hope whatsoever. The only thing I assume is that we have a chance. The thing that I KNOW is that we must, at some point, take chances to win this thing.

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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Jan 2003
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 05:47 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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One thing is taking chances BF, another entirely different is taking the WRONG ones.

I have never said anything about not launching our attack, I am 100% convinced that we MUST. I am merely objecting in the way we have not been able to adapt this invasion to the changing circumstances, and still stick with the situation of 5 or 10 turns ago.

The world changes. If we don't change with it, we lose.

-MZ

Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 05:48 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by BigFree
The only thing I assume is that we have a chance. The thing that I KNOW is that we must, at some point, take chances to win this thing.

But why take more chances now than we have to?

We have a GA coming up, a large technological edge and a strike which is almost assured of taking out their FP (with enough force, anyways...). We have better located cores, better city spacing and a better team. Why risk more than we have to?

I don't think anyone here believes that this will be the coup de grace for the game. With that being the case, why sell the farm in our current situation?

Lord Nuclear is offline Lord Nuclear
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Jun 2002
time: 21:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 06:08
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You really don't think we can take their FP with over twenty knights?

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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Jan 2003
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 06:10 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Nuclear Master
You really don't think we can take their FP with over twenty knights?


You really think we'll be able to take Parthe with 9 after they get a 4 turn advance warning?

Lord Nuclear is offline Lord Nuclear
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 06:12
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You still have not answered my question

Hot_Enamel is offline Hot_Enamel
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Aug 2002
time: 14:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 06:36
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I never liked the Parth attack.
And as I watched CGN crumble...I hated the idea even more.

The Parth strike is a waste. We should put everything we got into the FP strike.
I'd rather have an overkill than be 1 knight short.

Trip is offline Trip
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Apr 2002
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 06:46 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Nuclear Master
You really don't think we can take their FP with over twenty knights?

Yes, but is there a need to throw those 9 Knights away in a location where they will most likely be quickly destroyed for no benefit?

If those 9 aren't needed, keep them home. Or send them somewhere to help CFC. Or to stir up trouble for GWT somewhere else. Just don't send them to their death because you have nothing better to do with them.

BigFree is offline BigFree

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Oct 1999
time: 21:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 06:53
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Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

That's just it Trip! We don't know where GWT will have their units and if they will or won't suffer any "bad" luck either. Depending on our landing options (which we don't know; we could have a very good shot at it. What if there's a unoccupied mountain for us to make a landing right next to Parth? We just don't know as of yet.

I'd much rather gamble 9 Knights on this strike than not. The payoff would be huge. Sort of like winning the Lottery; only that the odds are not that high.

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 06:56 Visit Trip's homepage!
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The problem is timing. The landing is too many turns after.

If they were simultaneous, or the Parthe landing were first, then I would be all for it (of course, in that case I would be against the Ruhrpott strike).

I'm not against it because I don't like taking risks, I'm against it because I don't like taking exceptional risks. The odds of them having units in the area a few turns later than our first landing are exponentially higher than if they were arriving at the same time.

Lord Nuclear is offline Lord Nuclear
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 07:02
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How many turns will it take to reach Parthe?

Sharpe is offline Sharpe
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May 1999
time: 00:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 07:03
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I have always been wary of a plan to strike a city of which we don't still know the exact location.

The FP raid has always been just that - a raid - get in - fulfill our objectives, wreak some havoc if possible , but most of all - get out with as few casualities as possible - because once we land - GWT will,in all likelihood, be sending all available units and naval forces to stop us.

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 07:12 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Nuclear Master
How many turns will it take to reach Parthe?

It is currently turn 186. We land next to Ruhrpott on turn 190 (4 turns from now). We would be attacking Parthemunde on turn 197 (11 turns from now).

Lord Nuclear is offline Lord Nuclear
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 07:16
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Longer than I thought....

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 08:59 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Nuclear Master
Longer than I thought....


And yet this information was known in the poll to attack Parth or not, and people still voted in favor.

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 09:14 Visit Trip's homepage!
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While playing the turn and upgrading a number of Knights, we are still weak to GWT's military!

The implications of this are great. This means that GWT is still building units, and at a pace faster than us!. About 6 turns ago we reached average with GWT, and that was before upgrading ~18 Knights. Considering that Ansar are worth less than Knights (because of the -1 defense), that means GWT has built the equivalent of at least ~22 Ansar since then!

This is in addition to what GWT already has and could transfer north by the time our landings arrive. That means ~22+ Ansar are somewhere out there, and could be anywhere at any moment. It's likely those units are defending GWT's core.

There's no way 9 Knights will take Parthemunde...

BigFree is offline BigFree

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Oct 1999
time: 21:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 09:39
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There's no way we'll need 30 Knights to take Ruhrpott.

I'd be happy to take side bets that we will not need more than 6 Knights to take Ruhrpott. GWt does not know we are comming. There's no reason at all for them to send, immediately, all their Ansar to Ruhpott. No reason at all. Also, why would GWT not use their Ansar on the remaining CGN stack of Muskets?

Will 9 Knights take Parth? I don't know. I do have about a 99% belief that 21 Knights will be more than able to take Ruhrpott which is why I say leave the Parth strike as is.

Lord Nuclear is offline Lord Nuclear
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 09:45
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I agree with BF

vondrack is offline vondrack

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Jan 2002
time: 06:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 09:51
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Agreed with MZ and Trip (but I have been against the Parthe strike from the very beginning).

Togas is offline Togas
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Jun 2002
time: 21:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 10:31
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I hate watchin MZ :cry: all the damn time.

Let's fight the war already. I'm sick of seeing a new whiney thread from the pacifists every other day trying to talk us out of this invasion. We've planned and planned for it for three months. The rewards FAR exceed the risks we're taking. Quit trying to manipulate everyone into doubting this great opportunity and just take a chance at it.

Failure is possible. Failure is acceptable. Saving those 9 knights means next to nothing in the grand scheme of things. But destroying that city ... that is EVERYTHING to GWT, and it's worth double the force we'd throw away to do it.

--Togas

E_T is offline E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 11:29
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quote:
Originally posted by Togas
I hate watchin MZ :cry: all the damn time.

Let's fight the war already. I'm sick of seeing a new whiney thread from the pacifists every other day trying to talk us out of this invasion. We've planned and planned for it for three months. The rewards FAR exceed the risks we're taking. Quit trying to manipulate everyone into doubting this great opportunity and just take a chance at it.

Failure is possible. Failure is acceptable. Saving those 9 knights means next to nothing in the grand scheme of things. But destroying that city ... that is EVERYTHING to GWT, and it's worth double the force we'd throw away to do it.

--Togas


Togas, If you have to blame someone, then blame me (or better yet, CGN for royally screwing this up).

Yes, I've been the most outspoken, when it comes to the need for a strike on Parth. But the reality of the situation is much different now, after CGN abandoned Micco.

CGN could have moved the 4 Muskets from Washington to Micco in time to help that city stand.

But they didn;t

IF they had, it would have taken everything, PLUS more, in that UBER Stack to take it. I know, I've run some sims to see how things would go and they WEREN't Pretty for GWT. They would have been left with a few wounded Units and a bunch of Pikes and Cats. Then they would have had to move more units down to reinforce.

OR, they could have starved and Bombarded Micco fro several turns, to get it down to size 6, that would have helped immensely.

Either way, it would have taken valuable time away from GWT and given it to us. Time for us to make our advances and time to get ALL of the strikes (CFC included) to their destinations and succeeded beyond our dreams.

But now, the reality is, that that isn;t the case.

CGN has 7 Muskets in open terrain (unfortified, too) and GWT's Army won;t evem blink an eye taking it out.

So, what does this mean?? It means that that Uberstack is free to head home

That means, that the slow movers WILL be in Beta, when CFC lands their strike.

It means, that if those Ansars were to head directly to Ruhrpott, they will be 4 tiles away from our Intitial landing spot, WHEN we make our landing.

That means, that we might not have enough units to survive their initial attack, before we can build our city and bring in the reenforcements. That means, that we will have less offencive power, to take anything that is in Rhurpott, out. That means, that this whole thing could be the worst fiasco in this game, since CGN warped their Army home.

Unfortunately, it;s a risk I'm even not willing to take. I think that, for this to even have a chance to succeed, we need to send everything to Ruhrpott.

We now, more than ever, are against the clock, for when we either have to defend against multiple GCA/GWT Invasion points on this continent OR Launch our main invasion. If anything, we need to be as close as possible, knowing that we can get this to happen, or WE will be doomed and there will be no one to save us...

E_T

Arrian is offline Arrian
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Jul 2001
time: 00:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 18:02
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Let's roll the dice, fellas. It's not a bad gamble. A gamble it is, yes.

It's never a good idea to *count* on your enemy to make mistakes, but consider the possibility that our fears of GWT's troop deployment may be overblown. They most likely do not know we are anywhere near being able to invade them.

Green light. Go, go, go, go, go!

-Arrian

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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time: 23:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 19:57 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Togas
I hate watchin MZ :cry: all the damn time.



For someone otherwise so rational, your utter immaturity when confronted with opinions different than yours is deplorable.


Forgive me for encouraging further discussion.

Forgive me for not wanting to rush into a crucial decision without people having decided in the most objective manner with all known information at hand.

Forgive me for fostering our best attribute as a team: DEBATE.


If these are not the qualities people want in their leadership, I really see no incentive to waste my time here.

Last edited by Master Zen on 23-06-2004 at 20:11

MrWhereItsAt is offline MrWhereItsAt
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Nov 2001
time: 17:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 20:08
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MZ - it is GOOD that you are stimulating debate.

But if you can't stand the heat then get out of the kitchen. Consuls/Presidents/Ministers are there to be disagreed with. That should really be written in to the job description. I know this all too well, and from Togas too (remember, Togas?)

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 20:10 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt
But if you can't stand the heat then get out of the kitchen. Consuls/Presidents/Ministers are there to be disagreed with. That should really be written in to the job description. I know this all too well, and from Togas too (remember, Togas?)


Disagreed with definitely. Insulted and taunted, no.

WhiteBandit is offline WhiteBandit
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Jul 2002
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 20:30 Visit WhiteBandit's homepage!
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~22 new units they have possibly built? Daaaaammmmnnn.

I say do not waste those other 9 knights. Lump them with the main attack force at least. I have a feeling we're going to need them.

Adrian Hon is offline Adrian Hon
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Nov 2001
time: 05:36
  Old Post 23-06-2004 20:39 Visit Adrian Hon's homepage!
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How accurate is our assessment of the units they've built lately? I recall that we did some stuff with unforting our units so we'd appear weaker than we really are - are we taking that into account when making comparisons?

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 21:43 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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Adrian, you can check out the GWT estimates in this thread, the methodology I used is explained there:

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/show...threadid=116581


we know we've gotten stronger, and yet GWT has gotten even stronger than that since even by forting our units we still are weak to them. That is not a good sign.

My estimates were at the time that GWT had about 30-35 Ansar, it is most likely they have more that number now. What also sucks is that if CGN had stood their ground and GWT lost a lot of units, perhaps we would be able to have calculated their strenght THIS turn.

Adrian Hon is offline Adrian Hon
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  Old Post 23-06-2004 22:32 Visit Adrian Hon's homepage!
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Ah, OK, I just wanted to check whether we'd taken the forting into account.

 
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