30-06-2004 09:51									#31
	Suffering from ads?

Incidently, Klein is in the ****. Really deep. I think his political career in Alberta is very near the end.

	30-06-2004 09:55									#32
	Increase the size of your Attachments

How long do Lib-NDP coalitions last?

	30-06-2004 09:56									#33
	Remove this text

Average is 18 months. One budget.

	30-06-2004 09:59									#34
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

That's the average for all minority governments. I'm not sure what the track record (time-wise) is for Liberal-NDP coalitions.

Given that this is the first minority in 25 years, and that the Liberals are much further to the right than during the Pearson and Trudeau years, I'd say 18 months is as good a guess as any, though.

	30-06-2004 09:59									#35
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

quote: Look at your own poll. 14% support abortion to be banned under all circumstances. They would be the base line of a socially conservative movement.

True. Which is why I believe the Gallup poll understates the socially conservative voters, or at least those whom I would agree with on the issue of abortion.

For example, suppose I were to be asked this poll? How would I answer? I would not answer that abortion in all cases ought to be illegal. There are certain medical conditions that would result in the death of the mother, the most prominent being an ectopic pregnancy. Therefore, I would fall into the morass of the majority in accepting abortion under certain circumstances.

If you dig further into these polls, you see that not all of the people who agree with abortion in certain cases agree with the 'health' prerequisite. Thus, it seems reasonable to postulate that these are the ones who only agree with abortion in the case where the mother's life is in danger a question NOT asked by Gallup.

Then you have some of the folks who support the health exception, yet do not support abortion in the first trimester.

These are the second bunch of folks who ought also be considered with the social conservatives, since that would seem the only logical explanation for their position.

quote: Now, when a newly founded Conservative party is trying to get its legs under it, do you think it is a good idea to present the 86% with the prospect of ideological conservativism?

No, which is why I approve of Harper's stance, and tactics in this election. This is also why I think it ludicrous the thesis that the people who voted against Harper did so because of his position on abortion, since there is very little that differentiates his party from the Liberals and NDP.

quote: To put it bluntly, Ben, if you ever want to see reform of the open season on infants (which, btw, I find distasteful as well) it will have to be Liberals that do it.

Your words have much wisdom, and I assure you that you are not the first to think this way. The consequence of this is that the individual candidates are much more important than the party they happen to represent, and that the prolife Liberals are much more influential than the Conservatives.

There are some prolife Liberals, believe it or not, eh?

	30-06-2004 09:59									#36
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi What is the Conservative's regressive policy on abortion? A private members bill in parliament? I suppose that means no private members bills should ever become law again in Canada, in order to protect the people from the ravages of the right.

This is the type of BS that cost the Conservatives thousands of votes and the election.

Instead of being honest, Harper was evasive.

He would leave the door open to a "free vote", but then muzzle the Conservative candidates so the people had no way of knowing how the candidates would vote on an issue like abortion, or gay marriages.

It was a terrible strategy because it made it look like the Conservatives had a hidden agenda (and of course they did have one).

But I hope the Conservatives continue with this approach. That way they'll never form the government.

	30-06-2004 10:00									#37
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Average is 18 months. One budget.

Good luck voting again next year.

	30-06-2004 10:02									#38
	Tired of ads?

quote: Average is 18 months. One budget.

They need one more seat, and the help of Duceppe to form government.

That independent will side with the Conservatives since his riding is in the Fraser Valley.

I think we will be voting very soon, perhaps as soon as the fall, since I do not see how Martin is going to cobble together a working minority.

	30-06-2004 10:04									#39
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

If the future follows the past, the follow up election will result in a Liberal majority, followed by a change of government to the Conservatives. However, that might not be a good guide.

It is possible, since Martin is to the right of the Liberals, that he will mend fences with the Conservatives and go 2 or 3 years. Support from the Conservatives would be the only stable solution, and it may actually be possible to manage. That would throw the following election wide open to the NDP though.

	30-06-2004 10:04									#40
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi True. Which is why I believe the Gallup poll understates the socially conservative voters, or at least those whom I would agree with on the issue of abortion.

That's classic. You hold up the Gallup poll as proof that Canadians are against abortion, and then you say it's not accurate because you know for a fact that it underestimate the number of social-conservative voters.

	30-06-2004 10:05									#41
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by joncha That's the average for all minority governments. I'm not sure what the track record (time-wise) is for Liberal-NDP coalitions. Given that this is the first minority in 25 years, and that the Liberals are much further to the right than during the Pearson and Trudeau years, I'd say 18 months is as good a guess as any, though.

I gather you haven't heard Pearson arguing for nuclear warheads being attached to the Bomark missiles.

	30-06-2004 10:06									#42
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

I'm sure Martin would be all for it too.

	30-06-2004 10:07									#43
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Instead of being honest, Harper was evasive. He would leave the door open to a "free vote", but then muzzle the Conservative candidates so the people had no way of knowing how the candidates would vote on an issue like abortion, or gay marriages.

Right, you can't ask your representative in parliament because you are in Hong Kong.

Scratch that suggestion of seeing them yourself.

That's what I ended up having to do with mine just before I voted, to have a good idea where he stood.

I agree, the candidates ought to have been more open about their position, but most of the candidates had some information available on their position, even without Harper making an official party statement in the mould of the Liberals and the NDP.

I could prolly dig up most of the candidates' stances just from my sources, so don't hesitate to ask.

	30-06-2004 10:09									#44
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by joncha I'm sure Martin would be all for it too.

Dief wanted them stored in the States. Sent up here in an emergency. Pearson ripped him to shreds on the topic, arguing that Dief wanted to shirk our obligations to the Yanks and our own security, and that to have the warheads so far away was ridiculous if a crisis developed quickly.

How far right does that place Pearson?

	30-06-2004 10:09									#45
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: I'm sure Martin would be all for it too.

But he's against the weaponisation of space, and ICBMs travel out of the atmosphere...

	30-06-2004 10:11									#46
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi But he's against the weaponisation of space, and ICBMs travel out of the atmosphere...

So he says, in the usual campaign-from-the-left Liberal style. Too bad he's on track to joining Bush's crazy missile defence shield.

	30-06-2004 10:13									#47
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: You hold up the Gallup poll as proof that Canadians are against abortion, and then you say it's not accurate because you know for a fact that it underestimate the number of social-conservative voters.

And I explain thoroughly why I believe that it underestimates those whom most would consider socially conservative.

Even so, this does nothing to affect the argument that the poll finds the majority of Canadians disaffected by the status quo, but rather supports the contention.

If I said that the poll underestimated the number of people who are in support of abortion in all circumstances, then you would be right to contest my previous argument.

	30-06-2004 10:14									#48
	Suffering from ads?

quote: So he says, in the usual campaign-from-the-left Liberal style. Too bad he's on track to joining Bush's crazy missile defence shield.

An irishman would have been drunk if he took a swig everytime Martin said 'weaponisation of space' in the debate.

	30-06-2004 10:19									#49
	Inflate your Upload Space

Actually, I think healthcare played a bigger role than anything else, and that is why Klein is on the way out.

If there is one thing an Albertan hates more than anything else, it is being a national whipping boy. Klein managed to hand Martin the whip, and splay himself, and Alberta, out for the whipping with no good cause.

I wasn't too fussed about it, but listening to the buzz today, Klein is done like dinner. If his own party doesn't knife him, the voters will throttle his party and you will see an Albertan sea change. They do happen periodically.

	30-06-2004 10:21									#50
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Like when you finally kicked the SoCreds out in 1970?

	30-06-2004 10:25									#51
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

We managed to hold on to those such-and-suches for good 20 years after that.

	30-06-2004 10:27									#52
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Yeah, but our Socreds weren't really Socreds.

Just Conservatives under a different banner.

	30-06-2004 10:29									#53
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Like when you finally kicked the SoCreds out in 1970?

Liberals first, then someone else, then Socreds, then Tories. Next? It's usually been a new, previously unknown party. Why do you think Albertans were fond of Reform and thought they were a good bet?

Politics in Alberta is all about the establishment. Anyone with a brain and some ability joins the establishment and lobbies from the inside instead of tossing rocks from the outside. The provincial Tories are representative of the province from the far right to the mid left. That's just the way it's done.

How you reconcile that with our penchant to be on the outside nationally could earn you a PHD in Poly Sci.

	30-06-2004 10:33									#54
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: The provincial Tories are representative of the province from the far right to the mid left. That's just the way it's done.

It's a one-party system and is unhealthy (far unhealthier than Canadian politics in which the Conservatives get to win once in a while and always have more representation than the non-Tories do in Alta)

	30-06-2004 10:33									#55
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Yeah, but our Socreds weren't really Socreds. Just Conservatives under a different banner.

Vander Zalm did a pretty good impression of a "real" Socred.

A conversation, years ago, with my (now sadly departed) Gran:

"He's a Nazi, you know."
"Gran, he may be a right-wing scumbag, but that's not exactly the same thing as a Nazi..."
"Tis so. He's from Holland, you know."
"Well... yeah... his family's Dutch, I guess. But what's that got to do with being a Nazi??"
"Well, they were there too, weren't they?"

End of discussion.

	30-06-2004 10:34									#56
	Put an end to popups!

So if you think it's a good way to run things, you should sign up your fellow Albertans for the federal Liberals and get them to change things from the inside...

	30-06-2004 10:36									#57
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Well, I voted for Landslide Annie when I had the chance.

	30-06-2004 10:40									#58
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Incidentally, I should point out that trying to convince the average Albertan to change his or her poitical beliefs is about as productive as trying to convince Ben to be an atheist, or someone from Ontario or Quebec that a PM from the West could be a good thing.

Something happens, it pisses them off, they change courses and get entrenched there. They move trenches again when something else pisses them off.

Klein just pissed them off, royally.

	30-06-2004 10:41									#59
	Support Apolyton

I know. I'm just wondering the same thing you are (if Albertans are so complacent about provincial politics then why do they love stirring up trouble at the federal level)

I think it's because the province loves its victim mentality, just like Quebec...

	30-06-2004 10:52									#60
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi I agree, the candidates ought to have been more open about their position, but most of the candidates had some information available on their position, even without Harper making an official party statement in the mould of the Liberals and the NDP.

I can that imagine that conversation.

You: So are you for or against killing the innocent unborn?
Cons candidate: Uhm, let me check the party position on that so I can tell you what I think. Oh, yes, some of the information available indicates the Conservative party says I can make up my own mind, so I can definitely tell you that if there is a free vote on this, I will definitely vote the way I think I should vote. Next question.