06-07-2004 22:34									#31
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So the consensus is that you can win on the flat but only if you're competitive in the mountains.

Its funny but I can remember Indurain nipping up the pyrenees pretty handily perhaps it was selective viewing.

	06-07-2004 23:40									#32
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quote: Originally posted by SpencerH So the consensus is that you can win on the flat but only if you're competitive in the mountains.

Only if by "flat" you mean time trials. Otherwise I can only think of two ways someone could actually win on the flat:
- With lots of luck. Problems due to the weather and other accidents cause all opponents to be set back significantly (like Mayo today), and then the time trials and some daring tactical play finishes them off.
- A relatively unknown rider, or a group of riders, go on a long solo on the flat and finish 8+ minutes ahead by grace of the peloton. He then manages to surprise everybody and holds up in the mountains.

quote: Its funny but I can remember Indurain nipping up the pyrenees pretty handily perhaps it was selective viewing.

Well, he certainly did do just fine, but I don't think he ever actually won a mountain stage, for instance.

	06-07-2004 23:57									#33
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Because of the physics of the Peloton, it is almost impossible to get and keep a large lead on flat stages. In time trials, there is no Peloton and individuals can distinguish themselves. In mountain stages, wind resistance is a long second to gravity in the force working against the riders and so individuals can distinguish themselves.

	07-07-2004 05:28									#34
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Exactly, so making the Alpe d'Huez a time trial isn't going to change things for the strong hill climbers. It will help the average joes who might otherwise get impeded in the pack, but the leaders can make their own pace anyway.

On the other hand, separating Alpe from the 180km lead-in might make a big difference. Lance always said he doesn't get to peak performance until 100km into the day. That's why he liked Alpe d'Huez better than the Pyrannees.

* Straybow bows out now that he has exhausted his entire knowledge of T de F

	07-07-2004 05:35									#35
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quote: Isn't Hamilton 33? 8 wins, starting when he's 35, would be quite an achievement

Not really. He is American...

	07-07-2004 07:31									#36
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quote: Well, he certainly did do just fine, but I don't think he ever actually won a mountain stage, for instance.

He didn't, in fact he never won one open stage ( IE, he only won time trials and IIRC only lost one )
He was good enough to win mountain stages but left them to others to 'gain' their support, he was only interested in winning the whole thing, not parts of it. Good tactics.
-

quote: and if anyone should have a problem with steroid rules changing, it should be jan ulrich, who was caught and banned for a year, yet no one ever says that. thye arer all convinved that armstrong cheats, but he has never been caught once in 6 years.

He was caught doing XTC.

quote: with how the team finishes and stuff.. i forget exactly - but they also changed the Alpe d'Huez stage. it used to be a climb up that hill after 180 km of flats. now they cut it into two stages, and made the uphill a time trial.

???
They change all stages every year, besides Alpe d'Huez - though famous - is not really the top 'hill'* out there.

The Alpes being old mountains are more suited for the power cyclists,while the pyrenees are more for the real specialists.
The Alps are more even, though they take longer, the total hight is about the same, maximum is about 2000M, which is btw a magical barier.
The reason being that it's much harder to take in oxygen past that point, for Example Lemond had a lot of trouble with it, as most power - instead of the more fluent - cyclists have.

* it's still quit awesome though
-

Anyone else find it cute how Americans see this event?

	07-07-2004 17:44									#37
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So what do you guys think are going to be the crucial stages this year? I'm thinking 13, 16 & 17. Tough mountain stages and, with Mayo already out, seemingly ideal places for Armstrong to bury lesser climbers like Ulrich.

	07-07-2004 20:21									#38
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Well, the new rules bit Lance and the Posties in the ass today. They finished first, 1 min and 7 sec ahead of Hamilton's team. Hamilton only loses 20 seconds, though, because of the new rule. Stupid...

Oh well, Lance still has 36 seconds on his closest rival (Hamilton). It's better than nothing.

edit: 55 secs up on Ulrich, 1:45 on Heras. Not bad at all.

Last edited by Drake Tungsten on 07-07-2004 at 20:48

	08-07-2004 02:15									#39
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Well, Mayo being out of the running might provide some exciting stages. He'll surely be going for a mountain stage victory now, whereas otherwise he might have been more tactical.

I guess I don't mind that team time trial rule now after all. It is kind of unfair, but it keeps them all closer together. That should make the race more interesting to watch (hopefully).

I agree with the stages you mention, though I would add stage 12 as well. Now I think of it, Mayo would be a contender for winning that stage. It's the first real mountain stage, so it's probably mostly going to be a stage where everyone looks at eachother to see how good the opposition is.

	08-07-2004 07:17									#40
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quote: I guess I don't mind that team time trial rule now after all. It is kind of unfair, but it keeps them all closer together. That should make the race more interesting to watch (hopefully).

I've kind of come around on it as well, after thinking about it. It does take away from the team aspect of the Tour, which is bad, but it definitely does keep the race closer and make it more interesting. On the whole, the latter is probably more important than the former.

quote: I agree with the stages you mention, though I would add stage 12 as well.

Yeah, stage 12 could be important too, with that big climb at the finish. The only reason I didn't list it is that it is pretty flat and easy up until the climb at the end. I figure Armstrong and other top climbers would rather make their move in the later stages, when there are numerous tough climbs throughout the stage to weaken their competitors before the end.

	08-07-2004 07:30									#41
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USPS owned the road today. Impressive time trial.

	08-07-2004 07:43									#42
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And people said they would be weak this year...

	08-07-2004 08:55									#43
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The only good part in this sport is when they fall and get totally dominated by the asphalt, or when 49 first ones get disqualified due to doping

	08-07-2004 23:23									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Yeah, stage 12 could be important too, with that big climb at the finish. The only reason I didn't list it is that it is pretty flat and easy up until the climb at the end. I figure Armstrong and other top climbers would rather make their move in the later stages, when there are numerous tough climbs throughout the stage to weaken their competitors before the end.

Well, I do think it would mostly be in preparation of the days to come. But if Armstrong feels he's stronger than the others in the final climb he certainly wouldn't hesitate to make a jump and take a few more seconds.

quote: Originally posted by DanS USPS owned the road today. Impressive time trial.

You do have to keep in mind that pretty much all the other teams had some delays along the way due to crashes. But there's no doubt they would have dominated even without them (or if they'd had their share as well).

Another nice day today, by the way. And I didn't even realize it until a commentator mentioned it, but every day there's been a different rider in the yellow jersey now!
Let's see how long Voeckler can hold on to it.

	09-07-2004 06:31									#45
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9 minutes is big at this point. I bet he will keep the Yellow until the mountains. I doubt the Peloton will allow another break away.

	15-07-2004 05:44									#46
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I love Richard Virenque.

That was a hell of a display he put on yesterday...

	15-07-2004 12:51									#47
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Bleh..he broke his word again..,

Impressive though

	15-07-2004 17:37									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten I love Richard Virenque.

Me too.

And he's going for a record as well, by the way. If he wins the mountain jersey he'll be the only one with 7.

Voeckler also managed nicely. In fact, his whole team did pretty damn good... But Saturday is the real deal.

	15-07-2004 20:18									#49
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quote: Originally posted by Mercator But Saturday is the real deal.

yup, I expect the yellow to change hands by Saturday but don't discount Fridays stage as one where the fild might be challenged.


The trip to La Mongie is flat for most of its 197 km but ends with two category 1 climbs of about 12 km each. With the finish at the summit of the second, there will be no opportunity for the poorer climbers to make up any ground lost here.

My prediction is that Armstrong, Ullrich, Heras and Hamilton will all gain on the bulk of the field including on Voeckler who may manage to hang on to the jersey for one more day

Stage 13 on Saturday will be another huge test with a hors category mountain at the finish . .. and thats after completing 6 other categorized climbs . This is the stage where the poorer climbers can lose a half an hour or more. Its one where the sprinters just hope to finish well enough to beat the elimination time.

The favorites can go super-hard on these stages as Sunday's stage is incredibly flat so the leaders can have their teams drag them along and then Monday is a rest day .. . All in all, there's no reason for less than full efforts in the stages on Friday and Saturday.

The final week sees a whole lot more hilly terrain including some hors category mountains but its currently impossible to know what the race will look like by then. I just know that I don't forsee Voeckler in yellow by Sunday

	15-07-2004 20:29									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten So what do you guys think are going to be the crucial stages this year? I'm thinking 13, 16 & 17. Tough mountain stages and, with Mayo already out, seemingly ideal places for Armstrong to bury lesser climbers like Ulrich.

I agree but I don't discount stage 12 as an important stage as well. Two category one climbs with gradients of over 6.5% and each over 12 km long -- Thats tough-- I don't expect anyone to win the thing on this stage but I think a whole bunch of folks could see their hopes ( fantasies??) for the overall classification evaporate.

The rider that scares me is Heras. He used to ride an incredible pace for Armstrong and it will be interesting to see how he fares as a team leader. Also it is unsure how strong the rest of his team is. Postal and Tmobile managed to keep 5-6 riders with their leaders through the hills today while apparently heras only had two of his Liberty teammates near at the finish. Is the team a little weaker OR did they make a tactical decision to rest the team as much as possible today?

	15-07-2004 20:44									#51
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quote: Originally posted by pchang What dod you mean by the best hill climber? There is a special jersey (red polka dot) for the best climber and the winner of the tour rarely wins this.

For obvious reasons-- Contesting all the intermediate hill points would require large efforts. People attempting to wn the overall classification don't make extra efforts when it will not garner them time advantages.


Riders going for the green or polka dot jersey will make maximum efforts on certain stages to pick up points but then accept that they will lose major amounts of time when not many points are up for grabs. For example O'grady, hushvold and Mcewen will likely just hang with the pack for the next few stages. Time is irrelevant to them as long as they remain in contention for the sprint points.

Virenque had a courageous stage win but efforts like that will usually hurt your time in the long run. I do expect to see Virenque go off the front again in the mountains-- he may even win another stage, but I'm betting he also struggles mightily and loses a lot of time somwhere along the way. That type of effort has to take a lot out of you

	16-07-2004 05:42									#52
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quote: The rider that scares me is Heras. He used to ride an incredible pace for Armstrong and it will be interesting to see how he fares as a team leader. Also it is unsure how strong the rest of his team is. Postal and Tmobile managed to keep 5-6 riders with their leaders through the hills today while apparently heras only had two of his Liberty teammates near at the finish. Is the team a little weaker OR did they make a tactical decision to rest the team as much as possible today?

His team is weaker. Heras is a world-class climber and a legitimate threat to Armstrong, but his lesser team makes me fear him less than Hamilton or Ullrich. He's also over 2 minutes back now, which doesn't bode well for his chances.

	16-07-2004 20:00									#53
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Haha! Ullrich is cracking on the final climb as I type this! I wish I could be watching this...

	16-07-2004 20:18									#54
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Ullrich loses 2m 26s on Armstrong! And Ullrich was the first of Armstrong's main competitors to finish. A great day!

	16-07-2004 20:42									#55
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Levi Leipheimer is only 3:00 behind Armstrong. Perhaps he will be Armstrong's biggest challenger this tour.

	16-07-2004 20:46									#56
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Ivan Basso is a bigger threat than Leipheimer.

	16-07-2004 21:53									#57
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Will they switch to supporting Kloden instead of Ullrich?

	16-07-2004 22:32									#58
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quote: Originally posted by pchang Will they switch to supporting Kloden instead of Ullrich?

teams wouldn't usually abandon their leader quite that quickly. Kloden is a good two and a half minutes up on Ulrich now but he doesn't have a history at the tour which would lead the team to quickly jump to him as their leader.

Just to give Kloden a chance, I could see them using a strategy where both Ullrich and Kloden are protected until crunch time . .. . but then if Ulrich is strong, I can see Kloden having to take the role of leading for him. If Ulrich starts to get dropped again, I can see the strategy change

	16-07-2004 22:40									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Ullrich loses 2m 26s on Armstrong! And Ullrich was the first of Armstrong's main competitors to finish. A great day!

It appears my stage 12 prediction came true. There was a big Armstrong attack and whole chunks of the field fell off the back.

One minor suprise was how well Voecker held up, only dropping 3:59. Also Basso seems to be showing an ability to contend with Armstrong in the mountains. Tomorrow will likely tell the tale when they all face the Plateau de Beille

	16-07-2004 22:40									#60
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Lance Armstrong is a steroid using asshat! I hope he falls off his bike again!