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Mercator
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Sorekara no Nanimo
Jan 1970
time: 06:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Flubber
It appears my stage 12 prediction came true. There was a big Armstrong attack and whole chunks of the field fell off the back. |
Except you thought Ullrich, Heras and Hamilton would hang on, and they all fell through. It was mostly the new guys who did well today.
The past few years you'd always see a small group with most of the favorites in it, and a few new names, which then blew up when Armstrong attacked. But this year all the favorites dropped out, and Armstrong was left with relative newcomers like Klöden, Basso, Mancebo and Sastre.
But still... There's plenty opportunities left to take back time. The Alpes are quite different from the Pyrenees, and much more suited for Ullrich, for instance.
Well, tomorrow it's gonna really happen. All the differences today were made on the last climb, and tomorrow's last climb is longer and steeper, so...
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Mercator
Except you thought Ullrich, Heras and Hamilton would hang on, and they all fell through. It was mostly the new guys who did well today.
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True but my prediction was that there would be gaps and that Armstrong, Hamilton, Ulrich and Heras would put gaps on the bulk of the field. Each of those four finished within 2 minute 57 of the lead while Voeckler was another minute back. A full 116 riders ( the bulk of the field)had times of 8 minutes or greater behind the leader.
So my prediction was precisely correct. I never predicted the stage winnner and absolutely figured there would be some folks I did not name among the leaders. Actually no suprise to see mayo, Basso, Moreau and leipheimer among the leaders on a given stage .. .
The true test will be tomorrow-- a good cyclist can possibly gut their way up two category one climbs. But tomorrow has SEVEN categorized climbs includinf a 15.9 km finish at the Plateau-de-Bielle (hors categorie). This is the BIG test and only the very best will make it in good time. With an easy stage Sunday and a rest day Monday, there is very little reason to leave much in reserve.
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Sava
Lance Armstrong is a steroid using asshat! |
Prove it. The guy is tested like a hundred times a year-- off season and on and has never had a positive test. He's probably the most scrutinized athlete in the world.
quote:
Originally posted by Sava
I hope he falls off his bike again! |
I don't . .. I want the best rider to win. If that's Armstrong so be it. If its someone else I will applaud them just as much.
I bicycle a fair bit and have an appreciation for how hard it is to cycle 160 to 200 km day after day. Its tough. Add the blistering race pace they have set and some of those impossibly high mountains and ANYONE you simply completes the thing has my utmost respect.
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:35
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Rest day now
Looking ahead
Stage 15-- looks like another day for the mountaineers-- I expect Armstrong in yellow by days end as his team will likely follow the same startegy as the last few days. I admire Voeckler's tenacity but his lead is two small and the Col d'Echarasson at the 127 km mark should be where he gets dropped for good-- I don't think he can yo-yo effectively a second time although this guy has suprised me thus far
Stage 16-- L'Alpe d'Huez
I love this mountain and this stage has no down hill at all .. . just a 15.5 km time trial climb. Armstron should be riding last with the luxury of knowing how hard he needs to go. I wonder if one of the riders that is out of contention for the GC, might make a gut-busting effort to at least try to win a stage. I'm talking the kind of debilitating -hurt yourself kind of effort inconsistent with staying with the leaders in the following days I actually don't expect much in the GC to change on this stage except Voeckler dropping a bit more down.
Stage 17
This is the last killer mountain stage. By then, the pecking order shopld be pretty set although expect Basso and Kloden to challenge hard. Armstrong will likely just mark those two
Stage 18 has much smaller mountains and I expect that any contenders would be trying to save themselves for the time trial the next day. The mountains are small enough that you might see attempted breakaways from riders that are not great climbers
Satge 19 is a pretty flat 55 km timetrial which Armstrong hopes to be a formality. he said he would be comfortable if he held a 4 minute lead going in.
Stage 20 is the procession to Paris. By tradition, this stage is more a parade than a race as the peloton escorts the winner into Paris. Racing only really starts in Paris itself as sprinters go for intermediate points and the stage win
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:35
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
I always remembered it as a tough mountain, but I guess that was when there was a complete stage of which it was a part. 15.5 km doesn't sound like much, when comparing it to the two stages in which Lance crushed his opposition last week. |
As part of a much longer stage, it has been a big part of previous victories by Armstrong-- But then it was at the end of some other big climbs. This time, the stage is too short to put major time on any other good climbers but the mountain with a 7.9% gradient, is not to be taken lightly.
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All times are GMT. The time now is 05:35.
Apolyton Time is 00:35. |
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16-07-2004 23:34
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