27-07-2004 12:33									#151
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No. I expect you to either know what you have posted here or at the very least have a rough idea of your definition of what constitutes an analysis and be able to reproduce it without too much effort.

	27-07-2004 14:04									#152
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quote: Ok, but the decision wasn't rational.

Which decision?

	27-07-2004 15:39									#153
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quote: I still would like an answer. Which do you prefer out of these two scenarios? (1) Your preference is satisified, but you believe it isn't. or (2) Your preference is not satisfied, but you believe it is.

I think the choice/question is false.

	27-07-2004 18:20									#154
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quote: Originally posted by Eli The way I understand it, for PA, Kuciwalker and others that decision was rational. Because for me, at that specific moment the value of the toy was greater than the value of 10$. So I did the rational decision and went the road that brings me higher value.

The question is why in hell did someone invent the term "irrational" then, if there can never, not even under the wildest circumstances be a decision which is irrational. Also the part here.... "Because for me, at that specific moment the value of the toy was greater than the value of 10$. So I did the rational decision and went the road that brings me higher value." maybe at best a possible explanation, and as such it does not make all other possible explanations invalid.

	27-07-2004 18:30									#155
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Irrational is a decision someone else makes under uncertainty that another person, with fuller knowledge, can see as folly. He may not, however, be aware of the decision-makers lack of information in making his judgment.

	27-07-2004 20:51									#156
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quote: Originally posted by Berzerker Which decision?

Any decision made under stress or fear that causes you to take a course of action which you previously recognized as irrational.

	27-07-2004 21:40									#157
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I don't have time to read the whole thread, but my view on altruism/self-interest:

People always do exactly what they think will make them happiest. Altruism, etc, included. Not that that means people always do what actually will make them happy, only what they think will make them happy. However, I don't think this takes anything away from altruists or makes them any less of good people or any less generous.

	27-07-2004 22:05									#158
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quote: But Azazel, Agathon and others think that a rational decision has to be impartial in some universal sense.

No. I just think that self interested preferences do not make up all the preferences we have. We can want things for various reasons: there is no need to assume that there is one overriding reason which unifies all the others.

quote: I think the choice/question is false.

How can it be false? Both options could clearly be the case and you are merely asked which one you prefer. If self interest was all that mattered, everyone would choose (2), but they don't.

	27-07-2004 22:07									#159
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quote: (1) Your preference is satisified, but you believe it isn't. or (2) Your preference is not satisfied, but you believe it is

Basically I'm saying that I don't think your preference is satisfied if you don't know it is.

It's like saying "you got the utility of eating strawberries, but you don't know you ate them": it just doesn't make sense.

	28-07-2004 08:36									#160
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quote: Originally posted by Berzerker But that means the analysis was done before the situation arised, it doesn't matter if your impulse for self-preservation over rides your analysis.

Of course it does. Survival instinct is not an analysis. An analysis must involve a rational, deliberate comparison of several alternate courses of action. There is no such comparison when your survival instinct kicks in.

	28-07-2004 08:39									#161
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quote: Originally posted by Skanky Burns Any individual may behave in an unpredictable way. But the unpredictable actions of numerous individuals tend to cancel one another out, so the average behaviour of a group is rational.

Not necessarily. Group Dynamics is funny that way.

	28-07-2004 08:50									#162
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quote: Of course it does. Survival instinct is not an analysis. An analysis must involve a rational, deliberate comparison of several alternate courses of action.

	28-07-2004 08:55									#163
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Not necessarily. Group Dynamics is funny that way.

In a group I would say that people become more self-interested wouldn't you?

	28-07-2004 10:07									#164
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Not necessarily. Group Dynamics is funny that way.

Not necessarily, true, but more often than not. Enough that models can predict group behaviour often.

	28-07-2004 13:50									#165
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quote: Originally posted by Skanky Burns Not necessarily, true, but more often than not. Enough that models can predict group behaviour often.

You think so? If we're going to get into the field of game theory, this is going to confuse things a hell of a lot more

	28-07-2004 14:57									#166
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quote: Originally posted by Skanky Burns Not necessarily, true, but more often than not. Enough that models can predict group behaviour often.

IIUC, people in a group tend to follow the "herd" mentality. That is, any individual is forced to follow the group norms and any formal and informal hierarchy in the group. If they don't, they will face censure or even expulsion from the group. The closer knit the group, the greater the thread.

A group tends to act irrationally more often than any rational individual. Such tendencies are exploited variously, e.g. cults and political youth groups, to mould each member.

	28-07-2004 20:34									#167
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger IIUC, people in a group tend to follow the "herd" mentality. That is, any individual is forced to follow the group norms and any formal and informal hierarchy in the group. If they don't, they will face censure or even expulsion from the group. The closer knit the group, the greater the thread. A group tends to act irrationally more often than any rational individual. Such tendencies are exploited variously, e.g. cults and political youth groups, to mould each member.

This is dependent on culture I think.

In 1979, President Carter faced an economy on the verge of hyperinflation. His solution was to get on tv and talk the American people into saving money. He told us that it was up to us to solve this problem. The way the people took it was to mean that the govt was not going to do anything about the problem. No one believe that the other agents would do the socially responsible thing and that if they did they would pay a heavy price for nothing. People spent their dollars faster than they did before the Carter speech.

	28-07-2004 21:18									#168
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"A group tends to act irrationally more often than any rational individual"

I think now someone has to link to the Prisoner's Dilemma.

	28-07-2004 21:56									#169
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I'm not sure if that belongs to group dynamics as UR meant it. Who would be the group - two separately questioned criminals having lots of time for reflecting about their situation? I think a lynch mob would be a better example

	28-07-2004 21:57									#170
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You can increase the prisoner's dilemma to include as many people as you want...

	28-07-2004 22:01									#171
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What role does that play if they are all questioned separately, so they are not really acting as a group? They only do both the same because they think it is the best for themselves (which I guess nobody would doubt), but this is not the result of group action, as eg. in my case of lynching someone.

	28-07-2004 22:02									#172
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue You can increase the prisoner's dilemma to include as many people as you want...

No you can't, and the prisoner's dilemma doesn't really apply to something like a lynch mob.

	28-07-2004 22:42									#173
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"No you can't, and the prisoner's dilemma doesn't really apply to something like a lynch mob"

Why not? Individual rationality (ie, not wanting go against crowd and hence get lynched), leads to a group irrationality.

	28-07-2004 23:03									#174
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Not always (some would even claim rarely) - that's the point.

	28-07-2004 23:10									#175
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue "No you can't, and the prisoner's dilemma doesn't really apply to something like a lynch mob" Why not? Individual rationality (ie, not wanting go against crowd and hence get lynched), leads to a group irrationality.

The prisoner's dilemma doesn't predict what all people will do. It only predicts what different types of people will do. It only applies to a specific situation. All game theory does this. You absolutely have to stay within the parameters.

And you are just agreeing with UR anyway that groups are more irrational.

	28-07-2004 23:17									#176
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He's arguing it froma heard mentality basis though, I'm arguing from individual rationality leading to group irrationality.

	28-07-2004 23:18									#177
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But you need another example then

	28-07-2004 23:19									#178
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Prisoner's Dilemma

	28-07-2004 23:30									#179
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I thought we already ruled it out - no group action etc.?

And even when you go with the lynch mob, the argument that the individuals participating acting rationally is highly debatable. First their motivator is fear. Of course, you'd claim it is rational to fear one's own death. But it would be also rational to say "I don't support the lynchers, since lynching weakens the rule of law, and therefore threatens my life as well, because I could easily be a victim of another lynch mob". And you would esp. have to explain how the individual who comes up with the idea of lynching someone is acting rational, because of the things mentioned above. After all, the first lyncher wouldn't be in danger that others try to pressure him into the lynch mob (since he's the one starting it), hm?

	28-07-2004 23:37									#180
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Wtf !