02-08-2004 00:59									#31
	Re: Re: And Kerry's bounce out of the convention is........ Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat It's a clear sign of desperation to be tooting your horn over a change in poll results three months before the election when those poll results are fully within the margin of error of the previous poll. Keep saying it long enough, you might actually believe it.

The key thing here isn't nessecarily that these numbers are great right now, but rather the Kerry camapign threw a bunch of money down the hole and failed to get a needed convention bounce.

Ramo: If you'd reat the date on the news release, it is dated today (August 1st). This is the first poll done in full since the end of the Democratic National Convention. Also, Zogby is known for constiently giving poll results that are biased towards the Democrats. I still remember you gloating over a poll released just before the 2000 election showing that even if Bush won all the States Zogby declared as tossup, Gore would still have an electoral majority.

	02-08-2004 00:59									#32
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quote: Originally posted by mrmitchell Kerry was (Vice) President of France?

You Democrats sure are desperate to pad his resume aren't you.

	02-08-2004 01:02									#33
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quote: You Democrats sure are desperate to pad his resume aren't you.

If we were then we wouldn't be ignoring his Senate experience.

	02-08-2004 01:05									#34
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quote: Originally posted by mrmitchell If we were then we wouldn't be ignoring his Senate experience.

If you were you WOULD be ignoring his Senate experience. But I could understand your wanting to hide that and make up fake offices he's held like Vice President of France and the what not.

	02-08-2004 01:05									#35
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Kerry: The Parisian Candidate?

	02-08-2004 01:06									#36
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quote: Ramo: If you'd reat the date on the news release, it is dated today (August 1st). This is the first poll done in full since the end of the Democratic National Convention.

Yes, and the effect's still not taken in. A huge portion of the electorate still hasn't seen much of Kerry's speech. A relatively small portion had actually watched the convention, and only a fraction of them were undecideds.

quote: Also, Zogby is known for constiently giving poll results that are biased towards the Democrats. I still remember you gloating over a poll released just before the 2000 election showing that even if Bush won all the States Zogby declared as tossup, Gore would still have an electoral majority.

That's funny, because I don't remember that.

Anyways, on what basis do you say Zogby is biased? He's one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

	02-08-2004 01:07									#37
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Kerry: The Parisian Candidate?

Apparently France is fully backing him. I guess Clinton wouldn't loan him his Chinese backing so Kerry had to garnish support from a different foreign country.

Another link.

	02-08-2004 01:08									#38
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Better the French candidate than the Saudi candidate.

	02-08-2004 01:08									#39
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With a big strong power like France behind him, Bush must be sweating. But I'm sure his Saudi friends can pull him through.

	02-08-2004 01:29									#40
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quote: Yes, and the effect's still not taken in. A huge portion of the electorate still hasn't seen much of Kerry's speech. A relatively small portion had actually watched the convention, and only a fraction of them were undecideds.

And news clips will influence people? But fair enough, we'll see if by the end of the week there has been any bounce.

quote: Anyways, on what basis do you say Zogby is biased? He's one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

His polls consistently show far greater leads for Democrats then any other poll out there. I wish DCPolticialReport was still open to the public so you could see this, but even still look at ixnay's website. The polls with the greatest deviations from the State's 2000 results are mostly Zogby polls, and usually when later polls are done in the state they don't corroborate Zogby's results at all. Zogby even has Kerry leading in Tennesse, which not even home state candidate Gore won in.

	02-08-2004 01:36									#41
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quote: And news clips will influence people?

Of course they will. Most people don't get their political news by watching C-Span, they see soundbytes on their local news channel. Conventions are no different.

quote: His polls consistently show far greater leads for Democrats then any other poll out there. I wish DCPolticialReport was still open to the public so you could see this, but even still look at ixnay's website. The polls with the greatest deviations from the State's 2000 results are mostly Zogby polls, and usually when later polls are done in the state they don't corroborate Zogby's results at all. Zogby even has Kerry leading in Tennesse, which not even home state candidate Gore won in.

Zogby showing results favorable to Kerry doesn't demonstrate that he's biased.

Anyways, his state by state polls are based on a different methodology than his national polls (or anyone else's state polls), that takes into account that a lot of college students may not have land lines - using the internet in some way, so may not be reliable. But his national polls, this one included, are rock solid.

	02-08-2004 01:38									#42
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I remember back in 1996 and 2000 Limbaugh was quoting the accuracy of the Zogby poll because it showed more of a Republican lead (or, in the case of '96, a closer race).

Moral: One chooses ones facts and data that fits ones ideology, regardless of political orientation.

	02-08-2004 01:43									#43
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The only poll that counts is the one everyone votes in in November.

	02-08-2004 01:51									#44
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It might be time for Bush to have Chaney call his friends at Halliburton & Enron. Bush has done them enough favors so it's time for them to recipricate.

	02-08-2004 02:10									#45
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: Hadn't realized Teresa was practally French I guess Theresa is "practically French" if you consider South Africa part of France...

She is from Mozambique. That sorta looks like a French Name so...

	02-08-2004 02:30									#46
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So we're now saying Teresa is an African American? I guess that flies better with the Democratic core than the French tag.

	02-08-2004 02:48									#47
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quote: Originally posted by ixnay http://www.electoral-vote.com/ updates daily with any new polls and is very interesting to track.

Very interesting site.

	02-08-2004 04:11									#48
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Wow, Kerry's cousin still has a political function? (mayor of a 2000 inhab town). I didn't know that. The guy has indeed lost pretty much every clout he could have during the 90's: he created a right-wing ecological party, and sank with it.

As for Kerry being favored by France: go try to find any population other than the americans and Israelis that supports Bush

	02-08-2004 04:34									#49
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DanS your old avatar was better

	02-08-2004 04:37									#50
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So lets summarize- Shi chose the one poll that shows Kerry behind (only with likely voters, since he is ahead with all voters) but within the margin of error.

Ramo then gives us 3 polls with Kerry ahead.

So what is the point of this thread anymore?

I think one fact is significant, and not only Zogby, but the NYT today as well highlights the fact that among those who have not decided, Bush is disliked.

I think the debates will be critical- if Kerry does well against Bush, it will give him the lead for good I think, becuase people undecided will pick him over Bush, and given the general stalemate, once those undecided or with weak support for either side chose, it will be impossible for the other guy, whomever it is, to catch up.

As for Shi's notion about the protesters- NYC police and firemen will be out there among the protestors- this will be a very wide protest, and I seriously doubt it will help Bush to have a quarter of a million people out there agaisnt him- hardly a show of democratic support for the Dear Leader.

	02-08-2004 04:41									#51
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quote: Originally posted by GePap So what is the point of this thread anymore?

Rant about the fact that DANS' NEW AVATAR SUCKS

	02-08-2004 04:44									#52
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Fine by me.

Lets organize a general strike!

	02-08-2004 05:09									#53
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quote: The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the Hispanic,

Q: How did Bush court the Hispanic community?
A: A $20 tip.

	02-08-2004 05:18									#54
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If Kerry cared about poor people he would have requested that all the money spent on the Convention be donated to charity. But I guess they really needed to have the week long party.

	02-08-2004 06:05									#55
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quote: If Kerry cared about poor people he would have requested that all the money spent on the Convention be donated to charity. But I guess they really needed to have the week long party.

I won't let you ruin my joke's good name by surrounding it with that...dry..."joke".

	02-08-2004 06:24									#56
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quote: Originally posted by Sprayber If Kerry cared about poor people he would have requested that all the money spent on the Convention be donated to charity. But I guess they really needed to have the week long party.

But Bush surely will, right? RIGHT!!!!?

	02-08-2004 06:25									#57
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor As for Kerry being favored by France: go try to find any population other than the americans and Israelis that supports Bush

I guess that's good considering the ONLY people who are relavent are Americans as its their country and their taxes.

	02-08-2004 06:27									#58
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quote: Originally posted by GePap But Bush surely will, right? RIGHT!!!!?

That's exactly what he's doing. Haven't you been following the news at all? ****, I'm already sick of all those feel good stories about what is happening with the money.

	02-08-2004 06:30									#59
	Tired of ads?

There's still a point to this thread; we can discuss how the polls are demonstrating that Dear Leader will be pwned this November. Internals of Shi's poll:

quote: FAVORABLE RATING KERRY 58 BUSH 52 HANDLE IRAQ BETTER? KERRY 49(44) BUSH 47(49) HANDLE THE ECONOMY BETTER? KERRY 54 BUSH 43 LEAD THE WAR ON TERROR? BUSH 54(56) KERRY 42(38) MORE HONEST & TRUSTWORTHY KERRY 48(42) BUSH 43(42) STRONG & DECISIVE BUSH 51 KERRY 42 WHO IS THE UNITER? KERRY 52 BUSH 39 WHO IS THE OPTIMIST? KERRY 42 BUSH 41

quote: The current poll suggested Democrat-leaning voters were more enthusiastic about the race, and therefore more likely to vote. But enthusiasm among Democrats already was high, and the poll suggested the four-day Democratic convention energized Republicans as well. Seventy-four percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic about voting than usual, up from 68 percent two weeks earlier. Sixty-one percent of Republicans said they were now enthusiastic about the race, up from 51 percent.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS...unce/index.html

Even if Kerry's up by only 3 among registered voters, the internals are very, very good for him. The horse race is probably lagging.

	02-08-2004 06:35									#60
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quote: Originally posted by Apocalypse That's exactly what he's doing. Haven't you been following the news at all? ****, I'm already sick of all those feel good stories about what is happening with the money.

Actually, no, I haven't heard that at all. Link would be nice.