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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:33
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quote:
The new poll shows Kerry now claims the support of 50 percent of all registered voters, compared with 44 percent for Bush, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2 percent. On the eve of the convention, Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 46 percent. |
Where do you get 2% from? Kerry's lead has increased by 8% (from -2% to 6%).
Last edited by Ramo on 03-08-2004 at 03:00
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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:33
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Internals of the WaPo/ABC poll:
Trust Candidate on These Areas:
Trust to Handle Now Pre-convention Net Change
Health care Kerry +19 Kerry +3 Kerry +16
Terrorism Bush +3 Bush +18 Kerry +15
Iraq Kerry +2 Bush +12 Kerry +14
Taxes Kerry +6 Bush +6 Kerry +12
Education Kerry +13 Kerry +1 Kerry +12
Economy Kerry +11 Bush +1 Kerry +12
Health care Kerry +19 Kerry +3 Kerry +16
Int'l relations Kerry +9 NA NA
Intelligence Kerry +5 NA NA
This is insanely good news for Kerry. The only area where Bush leads is in terrorism, and even there by a tiny margin. I have little doubt that the horse race will catch up to reflect these numbers.
Last edited by Ramo on 03-08-2004 at 03:18
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Shi Huangdi
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Pittsburgh, PA
Apr 1999
time: 00:33
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"Zogby showing results favorable to Kerry doesn't demonstrate that he's biased."
Right, perhaps biased was the wrong word, rather just this seems to produce the best result for the Democrats. The reason I'm not so concerned is that of all the polls, this is the one that typically produces the best results for Democrats, although certainly Zogby has had polling sucsesses in the past.
"
Of course they will. Most people don't get their political news by watching C-Span, they see soundbytes on their local news channel. Conventions are no different."
How much can you get from a newsclip of a speech though? And wouldn't have the news coverage on the convention have already happened for the most part, being reported on the news the day after and being in the newspapers for the next day. The Media never takes long to move on to the next survey.
"So lets summarize- Shi chose the one poll that shows Kerry behind (only with likely voters, since he is ahead with all voters) but within the margin of error."
My poll was the first one to be taken fully after the end of the convention, though most polls taken have a registered a very weak to minimal bounce for Kerry.
"I think the debates will be critical-"
Historically, they haven't been. They can provide a short term bounce, but they never seem to have a long lasting effect, unless there is a major gaffe by a candidate.
"and I seriously doubt it will help Bush to have a quarter of a million people out there agaisnt him- hardly a show of democratic support for the Dear Leader."
Not in itself having the quarter million there. Rather, the most extreme among the protestors will try to act like asses and cause a backlash against them.
"
Conventions nowadays are big circle jerks for the party hacks. The last real conventions in terms of meaningful impact were the Republicans in '76 and the Dems in '80."
In terms of having real power, you are correct, but they have still traditionally had a bounce effect in helping the candidate. BUt newsweek registered the smallest bounce in the history of their poll, and the poll i cited showed the Dems moving the wrong direction.
"This is insanely good news for Kerry. "
I disagree. I think it mainly shows the efffect of Kerry being made more familiar to those who already support him. I suspect that before, there were alot of people who hated Bush but were ambivalent about Kerry, and these people now are more enthusiatic about Kerry.
I am sure past polls have also registered gains on internals, I don't have any comparisons on hand as to what those have been in the past. But terms of overall polls, previous challenger conventions have typically generated much higher bounces then this. This one fell short, and may not have happened at all.
"LV models are bullshit, especially this far from the election. They're for people who think poly sci is actually a science. RV's are much more reliable."
Except for the fact that Republicans typically turnout in greater numbers then do Democrats, so merely going by RV produces an unnatural skew to the Democrats.
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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:33
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quote:
Right, perhaps biased was the wrong word, rather just this seems to produce the best result for the Democrats. The reason I'm not so concerned is that of all the polls, this is the one that typically produces the best results for Democrats, although certainly Zogby has had polling sucsesses in the past. |
Not its national polls. The state polls maybe, but the national polls are very reliable as Boris pointed out.
quote:
How much can you get from a newsclip of a speech though? And wouldn't have the news coverage on the convention have already happened for the most part, being reported on the news the day after and being in the newspapers for the next day. The Media never takes long to move on to the next survey. |
You may be right, but it takes time for the effect to fully sink in. I recall that right after the Reagan worship there wasn't a Reagan bounce, but it came shortly afterwards. And with the internals of these polls, it loooks very good for Kerry.
quote:
I disagree. I think it mainly shows the efffect of Kerry being made more familiar to those who already support him. I suspect that before, there were alot of people who hated Bush but were ambivalent about Kerry, and these people now are more enthusiatic about Kerry. |
But the internals that I menioned show that more people like Kerry than Bush on the relevant issues (and Kerry only had a 3% deficit on terrorism). Kerry had a very large lead on a lot of those key issues.
Decisions take time be made up. Anyways, we'll see what happens soon enough.
quote:
I disagree. I think it mainly shows the efffect of Kerry being made more familiar to those who already support him. I suspect that before, there were alot of people who hated Bush but were ambivalent about Kerry, and these people now are more enthusiatic about Kerry. |
I don't think that'll necessarily be true this year (or at least the effect will be much smaller). The Democrats haven't been this united behind their candidate before, in modern history.
quote:
This one fell short, and may not have happened at all. |
WaPo/ABC showed an 8 point bounce. Anyways, the electorate is more decided than ever before, previous conventions aren't meaningful comparisons. And there were often special cases (i.e. Perot droppoed out during the '92 convention, so Clinton registered a huge, temporary bounce).
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02-08-2004 23:37
Because their Liberals..... and that's what Liberals do....?
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