 |
| |
|
|
Shi Huangdi
|
 |
Pittsburgh, PA
Apr 1999
time: 00:33
|
|
quote:
Bush leading 50 to 47 among likely voters in new GALLUPUSATODAYCNN poll
CNN -- Late Edition Primetime
Sun Aug 01 2004
WOLF: we're also getting new information, the first new poll numbers since the democratic convention. they're coming in right now and they're showing an apparent difference between registered voters and likely voters. here to explain exactly what's going on our senior political analyst bill schneider. bill, this is the latest cnn/""usa today""/gallup poll. these are numbers that were completely taken, this poll since john kerry's acceptance speech. i want to show our viewers what the numbers show so far. among registered voters, this is important, registered voters, john kerry is now at 50% compared to george w. bush at 47%. you see what it was before the convention, 49/45 in favor of kerry. among likely voters, though, take a look at this. a difference, likely voters, 50% for bush, 47% for kerry. a reversal, the margin of error, though, 3% in this poll you see. well, first of all, explain the difference between registered and likely voters.
SCHNEIDER: wolf, about three-quarters of americans are registered to vote but in the presidential election typically only about half or a little bit over half will turn out to vote. so what the gallup poll does is screen people according to their interests, their intention to vote, their enthusiasm and screen out the 50% who in the typical presidential election are likely to vote. so, if this election is a typical presidential election, the likely voters show a slight lead for bush but if turnout is higher than that, and we get more registered voters actually voting that should help kerry.
WOLF: what do these numbers say about the so-called bounce out of this democratic convention?
SCHNEIDER: no bounce and that's striking. they show there might have been a very brief bounce, not a bounce but a blip i'd call it among people interviewed on friday after the convention kerry was ahead by five points. we continued to interview on saturday and those people -- bush moved into a slight lead of two points. we will continue to interview people but this looks like the shortest bounce on record.
WOLF: is that because the country basically had already made up their mind? there wasn't a whole lot of room for undecides? that's what the democrats keep saying.
SCHNEIDER: looks like they had a point. what we're see showing is before the convention the democrats were hugely enthusiastic about voting. over three-quarters said they were more enthusiastic than usual. after the convention the number of democrats who said they were enthusiastic went up only slightly. they already had their bounce but what really changed is that the republicans, the bush voters went way up in enthusiasm gaining eight points so it looks like, yes, the convention rallied voters but it rallied republicans more than democrats. the only good news for democrat, democrats are still more enthusiastic about voting than republicans are.
WOLF: we'll get more on these numbers throughout ""late edition."" thanks for that.
|
Well, before the convention Kerry was actually leading among likely voters, and now afterwards Bush leads. So instead of a bunch, it was more of digging a hole and jumping face first into it. Looks like the effect of spending athat money, over $30 mil, and brining all those people from the left wing of the Democratic party like Dean, Kennedy, Sharpton, etc. was to mobilize Republican Enthusiams about voting against the Democrats.
Excellent job. These Dems turn failure into an art form.
Last edited by Shi Huangdi on 01-08-2004 at 23:22
|
|
| |
|
|
|
asleepathewheel
|
|
listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:33
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Well, before the convention Kerry was actually leading among registered voters, and now afterwards Bush leads. |
quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
among registered voters, this is important, registered voters, john kerry is now at 50% compared to george w. bush at 47% |
Which is it?
|
|
| |
|
|
|
asleepathewheel
|
|
listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:33
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Kerry is leading among registered voters, as you pointed out. Bush's lead is among likely voters.
|
Maybe you should edit your post then, for the sake of consistency.
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
Ramo
|
 |
Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:33
|
|
Zogby has an interesting analysis of the situation:
quote:
The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.
The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush’s standing among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, having a strong favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. Only 32% approve of Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a quarter (28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their opinion yet. These undecided voters are generally dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough with the Senator from Massachusetts to support him.
The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000. Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore’s total with 69%. Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%, showing that not only has Bush’s courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.
The Senator’s lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.
Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South. While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.
Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.
There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who will potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and young voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting – will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr. Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000. |
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849
|
|
| |
|
|
|
mrmitchell
|
|
quote:
Well the only thing I got out of the Democratic Convention was finding out that Teresa Heinz was an "anti- gay raccoon b1tch". Never expected that.
That and the whole Kerry-French connection. Hadn't realized Teresa was practally French and Kerry had a cousin who's a French Mayor. Its like Bush versus France for the Presidential election. Pretty much like the last four years only in electible format.
* GhengisFarb sits back to see if his mrmitchell bait catches anything.
|
I hear Bush's daddy sold weapons to Saddam Hussein.
|
|
| |
All times are GMT. The time now is 05:33.
Apolyton Time is 00:33. |
top of page
|
| archivepost |
|
Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
|
|
|
|
|
|
01-08-2004 23:02
|