16-08-2004 22:47									#1
	War Is Coming: what do we do about it? Support Apolyton

I've been mulling the last turn over... I am not going to deny that it has left me worried. GS rising strong vs. us can mean only one thing: war. There is no doubt about it. GS is not planning to pour everything into their research, launching a spaceship. Maybe after winning this war, but not BEFORE fighting this war.

Granted, the target might be ND... but, is that really an option? Are we not fooling ourselves here? GS very well knows our approach to the global politics and to the global balance of power. They very well know we would, immediately or very soon, come to ND's aid - if for nothing else, then to simply not let them win. They would only unite ND and Lego. The last thing they need.

OTOH, attacking us, they can very well hope for ND remaining neutral for quite some time... since ND's only hope is to let others (us, GoW, GS) beat the crap out of each other, hopefully surviving the war as one of the stronger teams without actually fighting in it.

So... let's take it for granted that it's going to be us and Vox to be attacked.

Now, what's the situation?

We've got our early warning screens in place. We will see GS coming - they will have to either sail by our ironclads or sink some of them. The only "surprise" attack may come from GoW - and only as a landing in The Northern Mountains around Castlea, where we could pound them for two turns before they'd reach the first city (Castlea). Good.

We've got a crapload of rifles. 52 of them, to be precise. 2 of them to be disbanded next turn, but 50 of them will still be there to be upgraded. We are slowly replacing them with newly built infantries... but it's more than obvious that at least some of them shall end up being upgraded to infantries at 20g/unit.

We've got a crapload of cavalries. Well, crapload. 51 of them. Their chances fighting infantry and tanks will be somewhat, uhm, compromised. Attack of 6 only vs. defense of 8 (tank) or 10 (infantry). You need to get a tank down to 2 pips to have 50+% chances to kill it with a vet cavalry. An infantry must basically be at its last hitpoint to present odds of 50+%. Cavalry needs a heavy arty support to be effective against tanks and infantry (and that's what GS is going to throw at us).

We've got some arty (14) and a decent number of cannons (22). Unfortunately, facing a stack of, say, 16 infantries and 16 tanks, it does not look all that impressive. We need more. We are doing about +2 new arty pieces every turn.

Our navy is only building up. First two destroyers in service. More coming every turn - but still far from being an impressive naval force. ATM, we cannot hope for stopping invaders before landing.

The invasion will come before we get tanks. This is not a given (it would be awesome if I was wrong), but very likely. Means we will have to rely on swarms of infantry to throw in the way of those tanks and loads of artillery to shell them, hoping to wear the invaders off and bog down.

The crucial point here is that it's most likely going to happen BEFORE we get to tanks. Which brings me to why I started this thread...

I believe we need to upgrade all or most our cannons & rifles.

We need 50*20+22*80=2760 gold to do that. If we set 1000g aside as something we do not want to touch (to keep the interest at 50gpt), we will be short of ~1850g this coming turn.

BTW - Vox have (just heard back from Rhothaerill) 8 more pikes to upgrade. They can upgrade 2 of them using their own funds. 2 more with the gold I sent them this turn (already considered in the above calculations). That's 4 more to go, at 120g/unit. ~500g.

So... here is what I suggest:

Let's cut out research down to 10% for 2 turns and then continue at 60% only, discovering Atomic Theory 2t behind the current schedule. Yes, means tanks 2t later (and hydros and modern era and... you get the idea). However, it allows us to have 67 infantries and 42 artilleries in mere 2 turns - before GS/GoW can reach our shores with tanks (GoW was lacking Mass Production this turn, so it would apply to them, too). All our cities currently set to build infantry/artillery would keep doing so, just that all units would be kept, none disbanded. We will need every gun, gentlemen.

Getting to tanks 2t turns earlier means we will, within 2t from the discovery (but that's at least 13t from now!!!) have like 5-10 more tanks. Compare that to 50 infantries and 20 arty pieces in just 2t.

Once again - the attack shall come before we get to tanks - we will have to slow down our research anyway (because of the luxury slider). Relying upon getting to tanks on a given turn is naive.

Plus, rising strong or at least average vs. GS might make them hesitate and delay their attack for a turn or two - which, however, levels the ground, since that's exactly the two turns we are going to "idle" with our research.

What do you think?

	17-08-2004 09:28									#2
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	17-08-2004 09:53									#3
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C'mon Radek, you know this isn't half as interesting as coming up with names for all the boats.

	17-08-2004 12:40									#4
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Vondrack , I SAY GO FOR IT!!! We have been waiting for this almost since the begining. In Such a situation we can only defend our selves and 2 turns of research is nothing compared to our whole glorious Ciivilization being torn down by a bunch of violent rednecks. It happened to LUX Invicta, VOX and the RP team, let it not happen to us. So do what you think is right and save our fair nation against our greatest challenge yet. May the Brick be with Us!!!! [If there was a salute smiley , you would see right here]

	17-08-2004 13:33									#5
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Several things: (bit of brainstorming)

1. This could be a hoax, with the purpose to make us focus on the military instead of science, to slow down our research and build a huge, expensive military. Since it is commonly known (presumed) that we won't start any war, making us build a big, useless military could be a viable option.

2. We are desperately short of artilleries. I'd focus on getting more of these. We could delay some navy production maybe, as those won't stop any invasion, unless we have lots of them, which is not possible in only a few turns.

3. We could slow down our research a bit for more money and upgrades, but then if it's a hoax, it'd mean that we bite it.

4. I'd upgrade the cannons first, and some rifles. We don't need all the rifles upgraded at once. We need upgrades in exposed coastal cities only, to avoid marine landings.

So, how about delaying Ath. Theory with 1 turn only, and do a gradual upgrade?

Additionally, I'd ask Vox if they have any warning screen in place. Damn, they are so week. Maybe we will need to slow down 2 turns after all, to finance Vox's upgrades.

Oh man, I'm busy. The clients won't leave me deal with the real problems

	17-08-2004 14:16									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Tiberius Well, if we give up our modern wonder building plans, then they've already won the war... What is the purpose of any war against us? Not conquer, because this is almost impossible. The only real purpose is to weaken us. So, if we win the military war, but fall behind in the tech race because of it, then we lose the overall war, the big scale battle.

Well, the thing is that to wage a war against us is actually in our favour, I believe (as long as we are prepared for it and it becomes a war of attrition) - if you look at the GNP figures few turns back (I will have a look at the current standings if I scrap some time today), it's us who can afford huge military while still remaining a very fast researcher (even considering the lux slider we will have to use). We haven't even maxxed the pop in our cities, unlike GS, so more commerce should be flowing in to support military.

The ultimate goal of a war against Lego would be to cripple us enough to win through space race without needing anyone else.

GS knows that they would lose a direct research race with us - they have been watching us catching up for several techs now. Once the game gets close to its end, GoW & ND will become much less fervent supporters of GS - they are friends only because there is the big fat guy behind, Lego. It would become "everybody on his own" game. GS would inevitably, to at least a large extent if not fully, suffer the same isolation we are experiencing now. Plus, they know they are going to miss a critical resource or two - happened to them before, likely to happen again.

quote: Originally posted by Tiberius Did it occur to you that this could be only a big hoax? It is unlikely, I admit, but it's possible. They want to force us to focus on the military instead of science and to gain an even bigger tech lead. Not very probable, but a possibility though. So I think that we should keep at least some builder options inh reserve, even if we focus on the military. Oh well, I will move this discussion on the other thread, the new war thread.

A hoax is a theoretical possibility, yes. If it was "go for research" or "go for military" then we'd have a much harder time deciding. Fortunately, it's not really the case. Our military production is mostly coming from core cities that are fully equipped with everything they need. They are able to crank units out in 2-3t, so much faster than the remaining, underdeveloped cities, that we can keep those on infra, allowing them to catch up with the cores.

I believe that this is a crucial moment for us.

Every game I have played against a human (not that there would have been so many, though), when a war seemed to be coming, it was coming. Never seen anyone luring his opponent into a false feeling of danger. I believe it's because to make the impression of a war coming, you need a huge military - so, forcing someone to build a huge military actually needs you to build a huge military, too, which is counterproductive. Plus, you risk that once the other guy builds his military, he will attack you, happily building your a$$ off (just to make some use of that expensive military).

It is a bet, not a solid-proof conclusion, I admit. If we fall to a hoax, we lose 2t (ATM, we're about 4+4+4+x=12+ turns behind GS - 4t for Atomic Theory, 4t for Electronics, 4t for Mass Production, and something for Radio which they are undoubtedly doing right now). Waiving 2 more turns, falling 14t behind does not seem like that much of a difference...

OTOH, if we ignore a threat that is real and are caught with our pants down, then we will be set back by much more than 2t, I'd say. Quite possibly more than we would be able to recover.

I will try to put together some cashflow forecast for different options later today.

	17-08-2004 15:19									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Tiberius 1. This could be a hoax, with the purpose to make us focus on the military instead of science, to slow down our research and build a huge, expensive military. Since it is commonly known (presumed) that we won't start any war, making us build a big, useless military could be a viable option.

Which, however, relies on the assumption we would not use that military once having it. I'm not that sure others rely on our "builder" nature this much - remember Arrian mentioning how GS feared our attack during the Great Bobian War?

quote: Originally posted by Tiberius 2. We are desperately short of artilleries. I'd focus on getting more of these. We could delay some navy production maybe, as those won't stop any invasion, unless we have lots of them, which is not possible in only a few turns.

Completely agreed - and that's actually why we are discussing this research slowdown in the first place. All our rifles (50) only need 1000g to get upgraded. We already have that much in our coffers. But our cannons (20) need 1600g - we are unable to save that much within a reasonable timeframe, while on 4-5t research.

As for diverting navy/infra to arty:

Legopolis will do several (at least 2, but possibly more) of them after finishing IA (starting in 2t from the coming turn, in 1140AD).

Jackson would be able to do 1t artilleries instead of 3t battleships (in a slightly food negative setup). The current BB build will finish in 1t from the coming turn (in 1130AD).

Panama could be doing 2t arty instead of 2t transports. However, we need at least 5 transports in The Legoon (more would be better) - if GoW attacks Vox to lure our forces into Voxtavia and GS then cuts the RR link along the Isthmus of Invoice, we will need a way to get those units back - every transport anchored W-NW of Port Hammer means 8 units back in Legoland, ready to fight/bombard on the very next turn.

Ahhmyfoot could be switched from a stock exchange to arty, yes.

Quanto Mechanico could start producing 2t arty after finishing its cathedral (in 1t from the coming turn, in 1130AD) - though I would very much prefer doing a hospital here then. 3 more pop points are going to be huge for this city (after Nou Camp frees its hills).

Abilene could start on arty after finishing its uni build (2t from the coming turn, in 1140AD)

And that's it. Other cities are simply not suitable for building arty.

So, reasonably:

ATM:
We currently have 14 artilleries.

2t arty coming from 4 cities (D.F., R.D., S'h, Logville)
That's 2 new arty pieces every turn. No change planned.

I believe it's reasonable to assume that the war will start within 5-10 turns (if it's going to start at all). To play it safe, let's assume 5t. That's at least 10 new pieces. Legopolis will contribute 2 pieces. Jackson could contribute 3 pieces, sacrificing one BB. Ahhmyfoot can contribute 3 pieces, sacrificing a stock exchange. Quanto Mechanico could contribute 1 piece, sacrificing a hospital. Abilene can contribute 1 new piece. That's 10 more new pieces, at most. 20 new pieces over the next 5 turns. 14+20=34 arty pieces to face the landing troops. Not enough.

OTOH, upgrading 20 cannons (1600g needed), we could allow Q.M. to build its hospital and still have 33+20=53 arty pieces to face landing GS tanks. That sounds just about right, 50-60 is what I would consider appropriate, assuming an invading force of about 30 tanks and 20-30 infantry.

Hmmm. Not only this needs the upgrade gold, but it also needs a production re-focus. I will reflect that in the turn plan, switching Ahhmyfoot to arty immediately and other cities ASAP.

quote: Originally posted by Tiberius 4. I'd upgrade the cannons first, and some rifles. We don't need all the rifles upgraded at once. We need upgrades in exposed coastal cities only, to avoid marine landings.

Well... we shall need like 3-4 infantries per every exposed coastal town. Depending on how well GS/GoW do it, that can easily be 40-50 infantries. PLUS, we will need healthy reserves we will have to throw in the way of the invading stack. Assuming 30 tanks, we are going to need at least 30 infantries. That's ~70-80 infantries we need to reasonably cover our bases. We have 15, can upgrade 50 more - and we are building about 1 new infantry per turn.

Within 5t, that's 70 infantries - just the minimum I'd consider appropriate.

quote: Originally posted by Tiberius 3. We could slow down our research a bit for more money and upgrades, but then if it's a hoax, it'd mean that we bite it. So, how about delaying Ath. Theory with 1 turn only, and do a gradual upgrade?

We only have three possibilities:

1) no change, continue as planned
2) slow down by 1t
3) slow down by 2t

I am going to put together three cashflow scenarios in a separate post.

quote: Originally posted by Tiberius Additionally, I'd ask Vox if they have any warning screen in place. Damn, they are so week. Maybe we will need to slow down 2 turns after all, to finance Vox's upgrades.

I asked them about 2 turns ago, I think. Rhotherill said GS was unable to come directly at them without getting spotted, but would have been able to go unnoticed via the far North. He shuffled their caravels and DDs - should be covered by now. The entrance to The Legoon (S of Memory) shall be blocked in 3t at the latest.

Voxes shall need 100gpt until the discovery of Flight (8t, IIRC, as I have already sent the gold for this turn). They need 480g to finish upgrading their military (last 4 pikes to infantry).

Oh, and - we will need some gold to plant our spies...

quote: Originally posted by Tiberius Oh man, I'm busy. The clients won't leave me deal with the real problems

Must be the same sort I am having troubles with.

	17-08-2004 16:25									#8
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quote: Originally posted by vondrack I am going to put together three cashflow scenarios in a separate post.

So, here we go. I am assuming roughly constant gold surplus - on one hand, we are going to complete new units and city improvements, on the other hand, we're going to add all the newly built workers to our cities (Rhothaerill emailed me last night they had no need for more workers, at least for few turns). That should pretty much even out.

The first number in brackets is the number of beakers accumulated into the AT research

(790) 1120AD: 1930g, at +230gpt/+790bpt (2098g+233gpt-400g sent to Vox in 1110AD)

Scenario A: no change
(1580) 1130AD: 1930g+230gpt=2160g, 220g sent to Vox
(2370) 1140AD: 2160g+230-220g=2170g, 220g sent to Vox
--------------: IA finished, spies planted with GS & GoW, ~400g
--------------: science upped to 70% -> +70gpt/+920bpt
(3290) 1150AD: 2170g-400g+70gpt-220g=1620g, 220g sent to Vox
--------------: science upped to 80% -> -80gpt/+1060bpt
(4350) 1160AD: 1620g-80gpt-220g=1320g, 220g sent to Vox
--------------: Vox upgrade needs satisfied
--------------: Atomic Theory discovered, starting Electronics

Means that in 1160AD, we'd only have ~100g to upgrade whatever we'd need. Plus, Electronics will be 4320-10%=3888 beakers. A 4t Electronics research will require 70%-80% science for all 4t (unless GS distributes it, which I doubt). That's +70gpt to -80gpt, while having to support Vox with about 100gpt to keep them at 100% research (Flight to be discovered in 1200AD). I believe it's obvious this is a way to hell. That would not be daring, that would foolish.

Scenario B: 1t slowdown
( 790) 1120AD: science cut to 10% -> +1000gpt/+130bpt
( 920) 1130AD: 1930g+1000gpt=2930g, 220g sent to Vox
--------------: science upped back to 60% -> +230gpt/+790bpt
(1710) 1140AD: 2930g+230gpt-220g=2940g, 220g sent to Vox
--------------: IA finished, spies planted with GS & GoW, ~400g
(2500) 1150AD: 2940g-400g+230gpt-220g=2550g, 220g sent to Vox
--------------: science upped to 70% -> +70gpt/+920bpt
(3420) 1160AD: 2550g+70gpt-220g=2400g, 220g sent to Vox
--------------: Vox upgrade needs satisfied
(4340) 1170AD: 2400+70gpt-220g=2250g, 100g sent to Vox
--------------: Atomic Theory discovered, starting Electronics

Means that in 1160AD, we'd effectively have ~1200g. We'd still be short of ~1350g (i.e. about 11 cannons). Plus, that 4t Electronics is going to need ~300g to cover the temporary deficit...

Scenario C: 2t slowdown
( 790) 1120AD: science cut to 10% -> +1000gpt/+130bpt
( 920) 1130AD: 1930g+1000gpt=2930g, 220g sent to Vox
(1050) 1140AD: 2930g+1000gpt-220g=3710g, 220g sent to Vox
--------------: IA finished, spies planted with GS & GoW, ~400g
--------------: science upped back to 60% -> +230gpt/+790bpt
(1840) 1150AD: 3710g-400g+230gpt-220g=3320g, 220g sent to Vox
(2620) 1160AD: 3320g+230gpt-220g=3330g, 220g sent to Vox
--------------: Vox upgrade needs satisfied
(3410) 1170AD: 3330g+230gpt-220g=3340g, 100g sent to Vox
--------------: science upped to 70% -> +70gpt/+920bpt
(4330) 1180AD: 3340+70gpt-100g=3310g

Means that in 1160AD, we'd effectively have 2340g to upgrade whatever we'd need. That's almost as much as we need to upgrade all cannons and rifles (2600g). About 2 cannons short of what we need (maximum).

So, looking at the scenarios, I believe it is a no-brainer that we have to slow down by at least 1t. Immediately. Upgrade ~25 rifles to rise in strength, hopefully scaring GS into delaying their invasion a bit. I would then suggest to go back to the schedule and watch carefully - on the very first turn something happens, we slow by another turn and finish all the upgrades. If nothing happens, we do AT in 6t instead of the originally planned 5t.

Guys, be so kind and CHECK ALL THE NUMBERS. It's a bit messy and I could have made a mistake. Before adopting a stance, check them thoroughly for possible discrepancies. Thanks!

	17-08-2004 16:27									#9
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BTW, we should have much better intel available in 1140AD, after planting our spies - we should then be able to see how much of a threat a possible GS invasion is and whether we will have enough to face it.

	17-08-2004 16:43									#10
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Hmmm, I think there might be more than GS to worry about... How likely is it that they will go on their own? I would imagine GOW have a few military units of their own they can throw our way. Or perhaps the plan is that GS invades Lego while GOW takes on Vox....

I hate fog of war, for all we know there could be a fleet of GOW transports out there right now loading up...

	17-08-2004 16:44									#11
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Have we had a chat to GS? Perhaps they might like to listen to a little 'lets both invade Bob' plan....

	17-08-2004 17:28									#12
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Heh, I am sure they'd be eager to join such a plan...

I am actually assuming the attack will come from two directions - GoW attacking Vox and GS attacking us. Most likely timed so that GoW lures our arty/attackers to Voxtavia - and GS will then try to close the trap by cutting the rail link along the Ishtmus of Invoice (difficult to prevent, as it is quite stretched). That's why I am getting that naval link between Port Hammer and Voxtavia ready and its capacity as high as possible... could be a nasty surprise for them...

I am less worried about GoW, since they do not have (and will not have - to keep our research costs high) Motorized Transport - so, no tanks. I am not really concerned about a diversionary stack of GoW infantries...

	17-08-2004 19:32									#13
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ACtually, I'm quite worried about GoW sending in a big stack of infantry merely to pillage the **** out of our lands. They wouldn't even have to take our cities. Just do enough damage to slow us down for a few extra turns, giving GS the edge they need. Maybe I'm thinking too hard...

	17-08-2004 19:42									#14
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This is actually possible. Imagine a stack of 25-30 infantries and maybe even cavalries pillaging our hills around Legopolis, Panama and Jackson. Not a nice picture, especially if GS would land with tanks somewhere else.

OK, let's slow down our reseach, upgrade those arties and build as many new ones as possible.

	17-08-2004 20:28									#15
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Slow down for one or two turns?

	17-08-2004 20:48									#16
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As for GoW & pillaging... first, it's not really in the GoW's interest to help GS that much. They must know they are quite behind them, lacking techs and lacking the ultra-efficient economy of GS (have a look at GoW's empire in the save). It is in their best interest to do something well defined and not really costly - I do not believe GoW has 20-30 infantries to simply throw away (keep in mind they are the only party having a land neighbour in this mess).

ATM, we are severely disadvantaged by the tech gap between us & GS. We are no longer #1 in Mfg. Goods (should we go out and tell GoW/ND what a monster GS is, again? perhaps we should...). That's advantages enough for GS - that's actually just enough for a war of attrition between us and GS. Exactly what GoW & ND need to catch up.

So, I would expect GoW to do "their" thing again (happened during the Luxian and Stormian Wars). To commit a pretty limited stack under strictly defined conditions (like "we throw away that many units to distract Lego and you give us these techs"). Then, they will only watch, being passively hostile to us, and hope for us & GS to beat the crap out of each other.

And second... it's quite easy to bog a force of infantry & cavalry down. Cavalry is ultimately unable to break through even half-decent infantry defenses (any idea why we are building all those fortresses around Jackson and Legopolis? ) - unless in LARGE numbers. A stack of infantry is able to pillage one tile per turn. Negligible.

If we commit a stack of 30-50 arty pieces to destruction of such a stack, it would take like 2 turns, I imagine - the key is you have to fear a counter-attack from such a stack much less than from a stack with tanks.

But agreed. Let's not underestimate them too much. That's why I am considering it a given we need a spy with GoW, too.

	17-08-2004 22:43									#17
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2 turns

As for GoW - GS: what could be the interest of GS? Simply to slow us down? What do they win this way? Time, of course, but is it enough to win the game?

And can GoW be so naive to let GS win by spaceship, given their tech lead, research capability and strong production? GoW (and ND as well) have no chances to win this game without further conquests. So, are they betting on a Lego-GS atrition war, while prebuildin for a modern war? I really don't know. None of the options seems very convincing.

	17-08-2004 22:54									#18
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Maybe GS just decided it needs to take back that land from RP once and for all

	17-08-2004 23:17									#19
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I believe the problem here is that every team views his situation from a different perspective. While for GS, time is running out, others prefer a slower build-up. Well... they have to, since they cannot build up faster (whether we talk about a "scientific" or "military" or "combined" build-up).

The only team being in a hurry here is GS. If they do nothing, they are going to lose in the long run. GoW & ND will not support them without getting all their cool techs - and GS will not be able to win on their own. Their Hoover advantage would gradually diminish as others build their power plants (-> means losing the advantage in any military resolution). Plus, there is the strategic resource problem... altogether, too much risk.

So, GS must do something - just building-up for some kind of a "future" war is futile. Their best window of opportunity is right now - tanks against infantry have a pretty decent chance, when there are no tanks to counterattack. Such a technology advantage is not going to happen again.

OK, now it is... What about the "target"? GoW or ND? Some juicy land, close enough... but there is the bloody Legoland. Lego will never allow GS to gain a fine chunk of Bobian land. Proven in history. No need to verify the approach still applies.

OTOH, attacking Lego will make GoW & ND happy - at least, they're likely to stay neutral for quite some time.

So - even if attacking us may not be such a bright idea speaking absolutely, it's still the relatively brightest idea - Lego is the only target unlikely to receive support from anyone else. The only target that is most likely capable to win the game on its own if it ever came to the SS race.

It's something GS can do... just sitting in their splendid isolation is not going to win the game for them. Granted, GS may not win the game by attacking us... but the war can lose the game for us. That's what we need to focus on...

	17-08-2004 23:17									#20
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quote: Originally posted by ZargonX Maybe GS just decided it needs to take back that land from RP once and for all

	17-08-2004 23:24									#21
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I'd think that the attack will come when we discover electronics. or slightly earlier, so in about 10 turns.

I also don't think that GoW will commit 25 infantries, but but less than that is almost nothing.

I am trying to imagine what the others may think:
GS: Lego is the only one who can beat us in the spacerace, let's cripple them.
GoW: Let Gs and Lego fight to the death, we will catch up scietifically in the meantime and apply the final blow to GS or ND in the modern era.

Something like this or is it something else?

Edit: this and what Radek says. Yes, it sounds more and more logical.

just one remark about ND: even if we would jump to defend ND, GS knows that we don't really have a chance defending them without tanks, so while it is true that they have a window of opportunity, it is true not only against us but also against us+ND. Maybe they even hope that we would send our troops beyond the sees and let Legoland relatively undefended. The fact is that GS still needs a FP. Besides, ND is weak even compared to us, so they are much weaker than GS. In the same time, I think that GoW wouldn't ally with ND this time. The only thing that speaks against such an attack is that it wouldn't hurt us.

Last edited by Tiberius on 17-08-2004 at 23:35

	17-08-2004 23:30									#22
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One more thing... if we agree on slowing down for 2t (I'm strongly convinced we need at least 1t, but would prefer 2t), then we need to decide how to handle the upgrades.

As shown in the cashflow analysis, we will basically have money to upgrade everything but 2-3 cannons in 1140AD... that's, by coincidence, the turn we finish the Intelligence Agency. So, I suggest upgrading as many rifles this turn as needed to become average vs. GS. Nothing else, just hoard the gold. Next turn nothing, more gold into the coffers... then in 1140AD, we plant a spy and depending on what we find out, spend the saved gold on cannons and rifles (the ratio to be adjusted to the actual composition of GS forces).

In the meantime, just keep the gold flowing to Vox, 1 pike-to-infantry upgrade per turn (only 4 more to go ATM).

Thoughts?

	17-08-2004 23:37									#23
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Sounds good, even though I'd prefer upgrading some cannons as well.

	18-08-2004 01:03									#24
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Have you noticed this?

quote: Originally posted by Darekill 1120 to the Warmongering fools....

	19-08-2004 00:26									#25
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I agree with slowing the research by 2t.

There are too many potential outcomes to speculate on the final war scenerio. Unless it's a hoax (which I doubt), the answer to all war scenerios is to upgrade the units.

I think it's very possible that GoW and GS have devided up ND so that they would be roughly equal in size. So the build up may be to quickly dispose of SD.
1. This would get the land area that GS must have.
2. This would bring GoW even with GS and Legoland (roughly), so that all have an even chance to win.
3. If they create a Legoland/ND alliance, then this would hurt our economy, and slow us down. They would not declare war on us so we would get no happiness advantage. If the stike is quick enough, Legoland may have second thoughts about joining a losing war.

This could be another likely scenerio.

NOTE: If this war between GoW/GS vs ND comes about, we could sign a MPP with ND. The MPP would trigger our entry into the war (? Does this eliminate the initial WW ? not sure about that).

	19-08-2004 00:54									#26
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quote: Originally posted by lmtoops NOTE: If this war between GoW/GS vs ND comes about, we could sign a MPP with ND. The MPP would trigger our entry into the war (? Does this eliminate the initial WW ? not sure about that).

Which bring us to an interesting question. What would we do if ND got attacked by GS, GoW, or both?

	19-08-2004 01:17									#27
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Well, we couldn't do too much, could we? This is why we wanted to help ND in their build phase, to make them a strong enough opponent for GoW and GS. Lacking tanks, our military involvement in the war would be a joke. We could help ND with gold and techs, but that would only delay the innevitable. We could also delay ND's defeat with our infantries and artilleries, but it'd be probably impossible to win the war, so why waste the resources then?

	19-08-2004 01:21									#28
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Hmm, if GS invaded ND with hordes of tanks and infantries, we could maybe try a surprise landing on a less defended Stormia?

	19-08-2004 02:04									#29
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Hmmmm

I'm sure they have a picket, so the surprise would be minimal.
We would need tanks to be effective; so we need the techs and then we need to build tanks. Not to mention the transports and navy to protect the transports.

If we are talking about a 10t time frame, I don't see it happening.

Of course if GS/GoW is destroying ND, we would have to rethink many of our strategies.

	19-08-2004 03:05									#30
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Agreed on that prior to tanks, our options would be very limited.

However, I just can't force myself to buy the whole idea. Speaking strictly ingame, forgetting history, a GS+GoW attack against ND would make a lot of sense, yes. It would actually be a MUCH better idea than to attack us. In some of my former thoughts, I failed to realize that GS do not need to fear a Lego+ND alliance THAT much, because Lego is, ATM, quite incapable of supporting ND with anything worth fearing. We'd be hardly able to defend ourselves properly - much the less to defend ND, considering our technology lag.

But... that (ingame only, no history) is not the case. GoW & ND have a long history of cooperation and mutual trust. One of them attacking the other would surely look like a low blow... I know I do not believe ND would attack GoW. I am not 100.00% sure about GoW never attacking ND, that much I will admit, but I still consider highly unlikely that GoW would be willing to strike a deal with GS on cutting ND's throat (just remember all the bad blood between them... their cooperation we are seeing is not a sign of true friendship, but of a necessity).

Besides, GoW would be risking FAR more than GS - with no tanks (GoW is unlikely to have tanks any time soon, as that would make 3 techs much cheaper for us, which GS won't allow, IMHO), their chances would be pretty much even against ND. Unlike with GS, who'd be roaming around with tanks.

Most spoils of war would thus go to GS, who would be safe behind the water. GoW would have to take most risk, being exposed along a very long border, facing a desperate and very, very angry and extremely bitter enemy.

I just can't buy that...