20-08-2004 01:41									#61
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark I pointed out not just his violence but his thuggishness. Perhaps thats no reason to doubt his word, but aggie seems to think Allawi having been allegedly a Baathist thug 30 years ago is reason to doubt his word. Im merely saying that Sadrs character is no cleaner than that of Chalabi, Allawi, Sharon, or any other player in the region. AFAIK Juan Cole normally thinks it appropriate to include sources aside from a players own words in judging their goals and motivations. Yet here he seems to think thats not appropriate. Seems inconsistent, thats all. And perhaps motivated by Juan Coles agenda.

Can you show anything in which Juan Cole ignores or dismisses the policy statements of Allawi or Chalabi in any way? Cause if you don;t, you have little if anything to start charging Cole with a bias.

This discussion of Sadr's aims came about by the very original question, which is, what does he want. Juan Cole has provided us with the single most coherent answer which comes from the person in question. Can you present us with an alternate list of Sadr aims (and notice Juan Cole acknowledges Sadr's seeming aim of an Iranian style clerical regime and authoritarian government) for the group?

	20-08-2004 01:45									#62
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark "He wants Iraqi Shiism to emerge from Iran's shadow and to establish its independence from Iran. His movement is rooted in the Shiite ghettos of Iraq and is very indigenous. He is not Iran's catspaw in Iraq, quite the opposite. He is strong Iraqi nationalist." In particular this is questionable - its clearly in Muqtys interest to say so, and it deserves belief as much as Hitler saying that he was not a catspaw for Germany industrialists who were secretly funding him.

Lets take the Hitler example: the German industrialists did fund him becuase they thought his aims were much like theirs. But I am sorry, Hitler was no catspaw of German industrialists. They did fine under him for a while, but his plans could not possibly have been their plans, and it brought them to their dooms.

So if anything, the Hitler example undermines your skepticisms. After all, The industrialist went TO Hitler, not the other way around. IN the same way the Iranians could be funding Mutky to further their own aims without being fully aware, or carring, what his true aims are.

After all, were the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan nothing more than a catspaw for the US?

	20-08-2004 01:46									#63
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by Agathon Sadr hates our freedom.

not sure, but if this is supposed to be an ironic reference to Dubya saying OBL hates our freedom, you need to do more research. Sayd Qutb DID hate our freedom, which he experienced quite directly in Greeley Colorado. In particular he hated the seperation of religion from state, which though a late development in the west, he saw as rooted in Christianity (I wouldnt necessarily agree, but we're talking about Qutbs positions, not mine) Do you really think that OBL thought Qutbs analysis was wrong??? That he has broken with Qutbism???? On the basis of a few public statements clearly aimed at a muslim world that is largely NOT Qutbist? Looking at OBLs public statements of the last 10 years is NOT the equivalent of looking at Mein Kampf, its more like looking at Hitlers speeches of the late '30s, when he tried to portray his goals as limited.

	20-08-2004 01:50									#64
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Agathon Are you seriously calling the Iranian theocrats Nazis? Sure, they aren't too hot, but they certainly aren't up to Adolf's standard.

can you read??? "OBL hates our freedom, you need to do more research. Sayd Qutb DID hate our freedom, which he experienced quite directly in Greeley Colorado"

FYI, OBL is short for Osama Bin Laden, who is a Saudi, not an Iranian. Sayd Qutb was a founder of Egyptian Islamic Jihad, and he was an Egyptian, not an Iranian. Im also not saying Qutb or OBL were Nazis, merely making a point about taking them at their word. Do you beleive that only Nazis make self serving public statements of their goals? (BTW it was GEpap who introduced the Nazi analogy)

	20-08-2004 01:52									#65
	Support Apolyton

Islamists hate the decadence of the west, so do people like John Ashcroft. But that's not where most of OBL's support comes from. By far his most popular statements concern foreigners meddling in Arab countries and propping up corrupt and unpopular governments.

Even if OBL won and expelled the US from the Middle East, no one would buy his Islamist ideals. Hardly anyone in the Middle East wants to live that kind of life. The only reason the Algerians voted for the Islamists in the early 90s was because they would, as someone said, have voted for the Gay Liberation Front if it had had a chance of removing the government from power.

And with regard to Iran: do you realize that many progressive Iranians are hopping mad with Bush because his idiotic "Axis of Evil" comment set the reform cause back ten years?

	20-08-2004 01:52									#66
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by GePap Can you show anything in which Juan Cole ignores or dismisses the policy statements of Allawi or Chalabi in any way? Cause if you don;t, you have little if anything to start charging Cole with a bias. ?

hell, im not researching everything cole has written. Im going by my impressions of comments about the occupation and the IGC since June 2003. If YOU can show me where Juan Cole judges Chalabi's goals purely on his public statements do so.

	20-08-2004 01:55									#67
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by GePap Lets take the Hitler example: the German industrialists did fund him becuase they thought his aims were much like theirs. But I am sorry, Hitler was no catspaw of German industrialists. They did fine under him for a while, but his plans could not possibly have been their plans, and it brought them to their dooms.

His defeat, which he certainly did not plan, almost brought them to their doom (many of the firms survived the war of course, or were revived after '48) Tell when, prior to 1943, his industrial supporters opposed him.

	20-08-2004 01:57									#68
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark not sure, but if this is supposed to be an ironic reference to Dubya saying OBL hates our freedom, you need to do more research. Sayd Qutb DID hate our freedom, which he experienced quite directly in Greeley Colorado. In particular he hated the seperation of religion from state, which though a late development in the west, he saw as rooted in Christianity (I wouldnt necessarily agree, but we're talking about Qutbs positions, not mine) Do you really think that OBL thought Qutbs analysis was wrong??? That he has broken with Qutbism???? On the basis of a few public statements clearly aimed at a muslim world that is largely NOT Qutbist? Looking at OBLs public statements of the last 10 years is NOT the equivalent of looking at Mein Kampf, its more like looking at Hitlers speeches of the late '30s, when he tried to portray his goals as limited.

I doubt Qutb would really define our state as "free", since it seems to be a freedom from God, and as Elok would say, what kind of freedom is that?

	20-08-2004 02:02									#69
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Agathon Islamists hate the decadence of the west, so do people like John Ashcroft. LOTM - Qutbists (which not all Islamists necessarily are) hate the seperation of religion and state, and the form of democracy. They dont just want the imposition of some religious law (which is already widespread in the Islamic world) but the extinction of ANY distinction between religious and political leadership, as in Afghanistan under the Taliban. But that's not where most of OBL's support comes from. By far his most popular statements concern foreigners meddling in Arab countries and propping up corrupt and unpopular governments. LOTM - yup, and most of the folks who voted for Hitler just thought Versailles was unfair, and wanted jobs. But we were not discussing OBL's followers, we were discussing OBLs own aims. Even if OBL won and expelled the US from the Middle East, no one would buy his Islamist ideals. Hardly anyone in the Middle East wants to live that kind of life. LOTM - As was largely the case in Afghanistan as well, yet the opposition to the Taliban was effectively squelched. And with regard to Iran: do you realize that many progressive Iranians are hopping mad with Bush because his idiotic "Axis of Evil" comment set the reform cause back ten years?

And what does this have to do with anything above in this thread? (Aside from eliding over the divisions within the Iranian oppposition)

	20-08-2004 02:03									#70
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by GePap I doubt Qutb would really define our state as "free", since it seems to be a freedom from God, and as Elok would say, what kind of freedom is that?

I suppose Qutb wouldnt say "I hate their freedom" He would however hate many charecteristics of our society which WE consider essential to our freedom, so from our POV he WOULD hate our freedom. Bush says "they hate our freedom" NOT "they say they hate our freedom"

	20-08-2004 02:11									#71
	Support Apolyton

quote: Reports ive seen say that SCIRI and Dawa get their support from the Khatami govt, while Sadr gets his from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and others close Khamenei.

And I haven't seen any real evidence to that effect, beyond token support (the Badr Corps, BTW, were trained by the Revolutionary Guard, so I think the connections between the it and SCIRI are fairly significant). Iran gets everything it wants with SCIRI or Da'wa in power (and it's very likely that Da'wa would form the heart of an elected Iraqi gov't). But it gets an unstable, nationalistic regime with Sadr in power.

quote: As for attacking Sistani for being Iranian, that does not at all show Sadr isnt getting help from the Iranians. as Karl Lueger, Mayor of Vienna once said about his partys antisemitism and his acceptance of help from wealthy Jews drawn by his opposition to socialism "That (antisemitism) is for the gutter - I decide WHO is a Jew"

The point is that while Sadr may have some token support from Tehran, that doesn't make him their puppet and certainly not their main branch of support, any more than Lueger was the puppet of or primarily supported by wealthy Jews.

quote: It may well survive in some form. But should Sadr get away with the assasinations of other Shia leaders, and the taking over of key cities, it will be a worse form.

It shouldn't have come to this in the first place, but I think backing off and addressing the social causes of Sadrism (urban poverty, unemployment) in the long term is the only viable option.

quote: And losing would seem proof that hes NOT the mahdi.

I don't think that many of Sadr's followers consider him the Mahdi. Anyways, seeing him getting killed (in the Imam Ali Shrine) would just prove to his followers that all hell is breaking loose, so the coming of their messiah is on hand.

quote: Or they decide that its not worth dying, and give up.

That isn't tribal custom.

quote: Especially if the cousin whos killed is known to the family as a criminal, as apparently many mahdi army members are.

Source?

quote: Look, in April we killed thousands of Mahdi army members. Where are the thousands of new recruits?

What do you mean? You don't think he's getting new recruits (thousands either way, I think is overstating it).

quote: which is why we wont destroy it.

How are we going to pull that off?

quote: Ramo, the Iranians are playing the same role here their ancesters the Persians once played in financing the Spartans during the Peloponnesian War. Ditto 117 AD. When Trajan conquered Mesopotamia, the "Iranians" financed a Jewish revolt in North Africa that forced a Roman withdrawal to deal with it.

Do you have any proof?

	20-08-2004 02:14									#72
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark hell, im not researching everything cole has written. Im going by my impressions of comments about the occupation and the IGC since June 2003. If YOU can show me where Juan Cole judges Chalabi's goals purely on his public statements do so.

The thing is, Chalabi is not in trouble due to his policy aims, but for scandals and such.

Sadr is a problem becuase of his policy aims (like not "colaborating with the occupation forces".

quote: His defeat, which he certainly did not plan, almost brought them to their doom (many of the firms survived the war of course, or were revived after '48) Tell when, prior to 1943, his industrial supporters opposed him.

Its not that the industrialists ever opposed him- its that his aims were not the same. I seriously doubt the racial extermination of "untermensch" was part of the plans of Krupps or Siemens: getting rid of communism, yes, but then, those would have been Winston's Churchill's aims as well.

Having a common anti-Communist agenda did not make them best of friends, nor did it mean Hitler was beholden. By 1943 there was nothing the Industrialists could do vs. Hilter anyways.

	20-08-2004 02:17									#73
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Also, US kill figures seem a little inflated to me, if only because the only thing we have is the word of the US in a lot of instances. After all, according to the US military we killed Saddam once, and also Chemical Ali.

	20-08-2004 02:28									#74
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Ramo

quote: And I haven't seen any real evidence to that effect, beyond token support (the Badr Corps, BTW, were trained by the Revolutionary Guard, so I think the connections between the it and SCIRI are fairly significant). Iran gets everything it wants with SCIRI or Da'wa in power (and it's very likely that Da'wa would form the heart of an elected Iraqi gov't). But it gets an unstable, nationalistic regime with Sadr in power..

Dawa cant run an elected govt without significant support from either fundie Sunnis, or secularist Shia, either of which makes the govt unreliable to Teheran. And worse the very existence of a democratic Iraq is a threat to the Expediency council, though NOT to Khatami. Which is the point I think. A Dawa govt, assuming its free of the Americans, is still an ally of the Khatami reformers against the Expediency Council - while Sadr is not.

quote: The point is that while Sadr may have some token support from Tehran, that doesn't make him their puppet and certainly not their main branch of support, any more than Lueger was the puppet of or primarily supported by wealthy Jews..

I dont know whether muqtys financial support from Teheran makes up 5% of his budget or 50% or 95%. I doubt we'll know for some time.

quote: It shouldn't have come to this in the first place, but I think backing off and addressing the social causes of Sadrism (urban poverty, unemployment) in the long term is the only viable option..

In this we are in agreement. But to GET to economic development the security situation must be addressed first. The immediate question is whether letting Sadr getting away is less damaging than arresting him, or at least driving him by force from the Shrine.

quote: I don't think that many of Sadr's followers consider him the Mahdi. Anyways, seeing him getting killed (in the Imam Ali Shrine) would just prove to his followers that all hell is breaking loose, so the coming of their messiah is on hand.

I dont think we know for sure what would think, or what actions this would motivate - but again, it must be seen versus the alternative.

quote: That isn't tribal custom..

My impression is that tribes arent suicidal, and reconciliations are possible. Again, do we make more enemies by finishing him off now, or letting him grow stronger?

quote: Especially if the cousin whos killed is known to the family as a criminal, as apparently many mahdi army members are.

Source?

LOTM - nothing handy, ive seen lots of references from Iraqi bloggers and others that many of the mahdi army are street thugs. Could be wrong,of course.

quote: Look, in April we killed thousands of Mahdi army members. Where are the thousands of new recruits?

What do you mean?

LOTM - if killing a mahdi army member leads to their cousins et al joining up, than the deaths of thousands in April and May should have led to lost of new Sadrist recruits. Doesnt appear consistent with Sadrs weaker military performance now.

quote: which is why we wont destroy it.

How are we going to pull that off?

LOTM - I dont know, but im not an infantry officer. I think Iraqi light infantry, probably at night, using lots of night vision equipment. Possibly a sequence of raids rather than one big attack. But certainly not by leveling the place.

	20-08-2004 02:35									#75
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by GePap The thing is, Chalabi is not in trouble due to his policy aims, but for scandals and such. Sadr is a problem becuase of his policy aims (like not "colaborating with the occupation forces".

I was not addressing why Chalabi was in trouble, but why Cole would not accept his statements about his own aims. Sadr claims to be an Iraqi nationalist who would oppose Iranian dominance. Similarly Chalabi claims to be a dedicated democrat and Iraqi nationalist, who would oppose any dictatorship, pro-American or otherwise, and who is NOT the catspaw of the Pentagon. AFAIK Cole does NOT take these claims by Chalabi about his aims seriously. Yet he does take Sadrs aims seriously. I questioned this, and Aggie said its cause Chalabi commited bank fraud, so you cant trust his word. Very well, Sadr commited murder - why can I trust him? People who commit political murder are more trustworthy than people who cheat banks? Or because the accusations against Sadr MAY be politically motivated? as if the accusations against Chalabi arent equally?? All im saying is that the treatment isnt parallel.

	20-08-2004 02:39									#76
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by GePap Its not that the industrialists ever opposed him- its that his aims were not the same. I seriously doubt the racial extermination of "untermensch" was part of the plans of Krupps or Siemens:

IIUC, the aims of the industrialists were to head off socialism in any form and to establish a militarist state. They certainly understood when they funded hitler that antisemitism was part of the strategy. They certainly accepted the use of slave labor. They werent to pleased with having their slaves killed, but would accpet that as long as Hitler was winning.

Granted that at some point he was too strong for them to do anything about if they had wanted to - he succeeded too well, in that sense. I doubt Sadr will get so strong that the Mullahs in Teheran wont be able to do anything about him.

	20-08-2004 03:37									#77
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: And what does this have to do with anything above in this thread? (Aside from eliding over the divisions within the Iranian oppposition)

It has everything to do with freeing people from Zionist prejudices like yours.

	20-08-2004 06:24									#79
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

It sound like Sadrs want to be a DE-facto Dictator behind the scenes. Someone else would be the Pres./PM, but Sadr would run the show.

	20-08-2004 08:50									#80
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Originally posted by Ramo I'll believe it when it happens. Sadr has promised to disband his militia a couple times before (when the US was running Iraq BTW). He may be just buying time. quote: “But there was skepticism whether Mr Sadr’s offer was genuine or merely a negotiating tactic to forestall an imminent all-out attack on the shrine by Iraqi government forces, which were fighting the cleric’s militia last night.” http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Stor...1286101,00.html

His crew is either going to surrender or the Iraqis are going to kill them.

Either way, they can do it with legitamite authority.

	20-08-2004 09:54									#81
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Ramo, I have no "proof" that the Iranians are acting like their predecessors (Persians and Parthians) in financing the a rebellion against a superpower on their borders, but it seems likely that the Iranians know their own history better than most Americans know their own history. I had a good friend who was Iranian. He was constantly regaling me about "Persian" history. He knew it itimately and was very proud of his country's history.

In both prior examples, the Iranian ploy was successful. The Athenians were totally defeated and the Romans withdrew from Mesopotamia. I think it is quite obvious that the Iranian want to repeat history.

	20-08-2004 09:59									#82
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Muqtada Al Sadr is a typical *******. He's one who likes to use weapons and make his people miserable. He should be slowly tortured. Let me guess, are we having apolytoners praising him for rising up "against the illegitimate occupation"? People here are soooooooo out of touch.

	20-08-2004 10:12									#83
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

AC 130 gunships were pounding Sadr's positions around the Shrine. It appears that a final push may be on. If this is true, the battle in Najaf could be over soon.

US forces are on similar offensives against Sadr's forces in five or six other cities. As well, there is an offensive under way in Falluja.

It looks like Allawi has taken off the kids gloves.

Good man, that Allawi.

	20-08-2004 10:14									#84
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by Ned AC 130 gunships were pounding Sadr's positions around the Shrine. It appears that a final push may be on. If this is true, the battle in Najaf could be over soon. US forces are on similar offensives against Sadr's forces in five or six other cities. As well, there is an offensive under way in Falluja. It looks like Allawi has taken off the kids gloves. Good man, that Allawi.

AC-130 gunships? Oh ****. I wouldn't like to be the little idiot on the ground running around trying to avoid the gatling gun.

The battle in Najaf will be over pretty soon... and Sadr will be dead. Then Iraq will go forward. But we should take Sadr alive and Iraqis should execute him like the Romanians did with that one dictator. And then throw their shoes at him.

	20-08-2004 10:28									#85
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Giancarlo, hopefully they get him. However, he doesn't appear to be in Najaf.

	20-08-2004 10:33									#86
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

That guy is a coward. Sadr talks about all this martydom bullshit and it turns out he won't even face the US military himself. He just pays people to do the dirty work for him and end up killed because they don't stand a chance.

	20-08-2004 12:45									#87
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by Agathon Are you seriously calling the Iranian theocrats Nazis? Sure, they aren't too hot, but they certainly aren't up to Adolf's standard.

Think of them more like Fascist Italy then.

	20-08-2004 18:37									#88
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark IIUC, the aims of the industrialists were to head off socialism in any form and to establish a militarist state. They certainly understood when they funded hitler that antisemitism was part of the strategy. They certainly accepted the use of slave labor. They werent to pleased with having their slaves killed, but would accpet that as long as Hitler was winning.

That they accepted slaves and accepted anti-semitism (most of them probably being anti-semites anyway) are not the same thing as envisioning getting involved in a global ideological war which ended in their destruction. Again, they and Hitler shared aims. That does not mean their aims were the same, nor that Hitler ever felt constrained after he gained power by the whishes of the industrialists.

quote: Granted that at some point he was too strong for them to do anything about if they had wanted to - he succeeded too well, in that sense. I doubt Sadr will get so strong that the Mullahs in Teheran wont be able to do anything about him.

Again, Sadr could want "independence from Iran" whil still sharing aims with Iran, like getting the US out, ensuring the Kurds don't get too much power, and making Iraq a clerical state. Even if Teheran did not have direct control, such an Iraq would more than meet their aims.

	20-08-2004 18:45									#89
	Got spare money?

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi police took control of the Imam Ali Mosque in the holy city of Najaf on Friday, after entering the shrine to find that rebel Shi'ite militia loyal to a radical cleric had left, the Interior Ministry said.

"The Iraqi police are now in control of the shrine, along with the religious authorities," said a senior ministry spokesman.



edit - the skynew version

'NAJAF SHRINE HANDED OVER

Iraqi police say they have taken control of the Imam Ali Mosque in the holy city of Najaf.

The Interior Ministry said they entered the shrine and arrested 400 militia loyal to radical cleric Moqtada al Sadr.

There was no sign of al Sadr himself.

"The Iraqi police are now in control of the shrine, along with the religious authorities," said a senior ministry '

Last edited by lord of the mark on 20-08-2004 at 19:03

	20-08-2004 18:49									#90
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

all your base are belong to us