29-08-2004 01:50									#1
	Heads Up Eastern Seaboard -- Hurricane Frances Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

...is still 750 miles from the nearest land, but is already category three and strengthening.

This one could be a real bugger.



That should be a continually updating image, at this point it could run over cuba, it could hit Georgia, time will tell.

Washing down the Bahamas and Florida (again) seems most likely, though.

	29-08-2004 01:51									#2
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hurricanes

	29-08-2004 01:54									#3
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Current advisory:

quote: 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004 ...FRANCES STRENGTHENS INTO THE SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC SEASON... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT 690 MILES...1110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 52.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/251432.shtml?

	29-08-2004 01:57									#4
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You can compare the island chain in the projection to the one in the photo to see just how big this thing already is.

	29-08-2004 02:35									#5
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Heads up Chegitz!

	29-08-2004 03:22									#6
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We got something called Gaston just offshore:

TROPICAL STORM GASTON LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 553 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004
... GASTON PICKING UP STRENGTH AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...

... AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK... NEW HANOVER... PENDER... COLUMBUS... BLADEN AND ROBESON. IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN... HORRY... WILLIAMSBURG... FLORENCE... MARION AND DILLON. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

... WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

... STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB OR 29.42 INCHES.

... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN HURRICANES OR TROPICAL STORMS THREATEN. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ONE... NOW IS THE TIME TO FORMULATE ONE. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS.

POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. STORE OR SECURE LAWN FURNITURE... BARBECUE GRILLS... GARBAGE CANS AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW AND SECURE THEIR BOATS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

... WIND IMPACTS... IN SOUTH CAROLINA... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING REACHING 40 TO 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... SUNDAY AFTERNOON... LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE BEACHES AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SQUALLS.

IN NORTH CAROLINA... WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH TROPICAL STRENGTH WINDS EXTENDING WELL INLAND.

... STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET. HOWEVER... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY EVENING... COMBINED WITH ONSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN THE CHERRY GROVE AND GARDEN CITY BEACH AREAS. FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN SOUTHERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY NEAR WINYAH BAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE SANTEE RIVERS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE HIGHEST PREDICTED TIDES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 800 AND 900 PM.

... SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... MAINLY IN GUSTS... AND INCREASED SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS TO STAY IN PORT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY.

... FLOOD IMPACTS... SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN SPOTS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE... WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLOODING IS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... AND IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON.

... NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON BY 900 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

...


Next we may/may not have Frances

Im on the coast just north of Wilmington in Onslow County


Ahhh...surfs up

	29-08-2004 03:25									#7
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I'm so glad I live in the Land of Boring Weather

	29-08-2004 03:27									#8
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It is really nice here..EXCEPT every so many years like this one..then its more of a minefield

	29-08-2004 03:41									#9
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Zoomed-out satellite photo:

	29-08-2004 03:47									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist hurricanes

Unless your living in the path of the destruction

	29-08-2004 03:49									#11
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Can't everyone on shore just blow really hard in the other direction to counter it?

	29-08-2004 03:53									#12
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quote: Originally posted by red_jon Can't everyone on shore just blow really hard in the other direction to counter it?

This is the east coast not west coast (San Francisco)

umm..Y.M.C.A.

IN THE NAVY

ITS RAINING MEN

Point made

	29-08-2004 06:17									#13
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now they are saying Gaston may be a minimal Hurricane now by the time it lands..

4-8 inches of rain..then of course depending in another week what Frances da talking mule doez..

	29-08-2004 07:38									#14
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That hurricane looks like it packs a wallop.

I have a bad feeling that this thing is going to smack right into Jacksonville as a Catagory 5. RUN, CHE, RUN!!!

Last edited by Odin on 29-08-2004 at 07:44

	29-08-2004 17:23									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Odin That hurricane looks like it packs a wallop. I have a bad feeling that this thing is going to smack right into Jacksonville as a Catagory 5. RUN, CHE, RUN!!!

or maybe you had right city wrong state

JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA

	29-08-2004 21:24									#16
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One thing I never got is why Americans living in hurricane zones still build wood-framed houses.

	29-08-2004 21:29									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Smiley One thing I never got is why Americans living in hurricane zones still build wood-framed houses.

All you need to protect a wooden hut in a hurricane is a cross.

	29-08-2004 21:47									#18
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This just isn't my year.

At least I'm better prepared, since I haven't unpacked from Charely.

	29-08-2004 21:50									#19
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Florida needs this like it needs another election year fiasco . . . oh damn.

	29-08-2004 22:14									#20
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The little storm is peppering Columbia with some light and scattered showers, but thus far, that's about all we've seen. Sun's shining at present, but clouds are looming on the eastern horizon, promising more to come.

Of course, living a hundred miles inland, we'll likely not get anything more than gusty winds and some rain, but that's not gonna stop us from throwing a party anyways...

-=Vel=-

EDIT: Of course, that's what everybody said about Hugo, several years ago...thankfully, this is a teeny one, in our neck of the wood.

	30-08-2004 03:20									#21
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I woke-up around 5am the other morning, couldn't sleep, so I turned on the tv. On one of the channels I noticed we had a tropical storm watch and I was like, "how the **** did I miss this?" So I got only, saw that stupid thing forming out in the ocean near us and was like, "Damnit, not another one." Then I went back to sleep.

I'm trying to stay calm about Francis, but it's been 40 years since we've had a big storm, and we're due.

	30-08-2004 03:28									#22
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara This just isn't my year.

You say that every year.

	30-08-2004 04:09									#23
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Good heavens, it's not even September and already we're up to H.

The current Atlantic water-vapor image shows four tropical cyclones: Frances east of the Antilles; Gaston over Horry county SC (where I was born and raised); Hermine midway between Charleston SC and Bermuda; and a yet unnamed tropical disturbance southeast of Hatteras.

	30-08-2004 05:22									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Theben You say that every year.

No, last year was a good year, mostly.

	30-08-2004 05:25									#25
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It's not going to hit Virginia. I can go back to ignoring the weather.

	30-08-2004 05:30									#26
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quote: Originally posted by AnnC Hermine midway between Charleston SC and Bermuda; and a yet unnamed tropical disturbance southeast of Hatteras.

Storm H hasn't been named yet. It's just a tropical disturbance right now. Still, that would put us up to our 8th named storm in the Atlantic, and we aren't even at peak season yet.

	30-08-2004 05:31									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker It's not going to hit Virginia. I can go back to ignoring the weather.

Don't ever think a storm isn't gonna hit you,

	30-08-2004 05:31									#28
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I blame Bush.

Especially for the xpost.

	30-08-2004 11:07									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker It's not going to hit Virginia. I can go back to ignoring the weather.

Given the current projection, there is a very slim chance it will cuise up the Potomac. Again.

	30-08-2004 18:05									#30
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Storm H hasn't been named yet. It's just a tropical disturbance right now. Still, that would put us up to our 8th named storm in the Atlantic, and we aren't even at peak season yet.

It was predicted that this would be an active season, but I wasn't thinking THIS active