28-09-2004 23:11									#121
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To McMeadows, 610BC

	29-09-2004 02:33									#122
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610 BC to jshelr

	29-09-2004 04:01									#123
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to F

	29-09-2004 18:02									#124
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Going hunting next week btw, monday to thursday. I might be able to play monday if the save gets in early.

We'll stay in a small cottage without water, electricity, internet access etc. Cell-phone coverage is available if we climb a bit

	30-09-2004 00:36									#125
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610 bc sent to Bongo

Last edited by Flandrien on 30-09-2004 at 00:41

	30-09-2004 01:19									#126
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As a contribution to a discussion that is making the rounds, here is a simulation of horsemen attacking a vet mercenary fortified on a hill. As you can see, the attacker can expect to lose several horsemen in the course of such an attack before killing the defender.

1) Good civ players would not likely engage in such a battle

2) PBEM players should probably avoid such attacks because it looks like a "no risk" experiment. "Let's see if we can kill this mercenary and, if not, we can always reload."

We don't want such perceptions, justified or not, to spoil the fun of actually playing the game.

Last edited by jshelr on 30-09-2004 at 01:42

	30-09-2004 01:20									#127
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That's wierd. Trying the picture again:

Last edited by jshelr on 30-09-2004 at 01:26

	30-09-2004 01:27									#128
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this may finally be the right picture

	30-09-2004 01:31									#129
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still trying. I should have clicked retreat. The sim suggests that you would need 3 horsemen for a 50% shot at killing the mercenary. With retreat, you would need more, on average.

But the point is that highly risky attacks, that are not tactically necessary, but get pulled off without losses, make everyone nervous.

Attachment: iron 4.jpg
This has been downloaded 20 time(s).

	30-09-2004 01:55									#130
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Why did you cut away the retreat part then, that's what makes it interesting


590bc to McMeadows.

	30-09-2004 01:55									#131
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The mercenary was attacked twice by vet horsemen.
First one retreated.
Second one killed him without losing a hit point.

I think Bongo can confirm this ?

	30-09-2004 01:57									#132
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quote: Originally posted by Flandrien The mercenary was attacked twice by vet horsemen. First one retreated. Second one killed him without losing a hit point. I think Bongo can confirm this ?

True, the first one knocked off 2hps, with only 2 hps left I felt a second try was justified.

	30-09-2004 02:05									#133
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The point is that the odds were heavily against Bongo's attack turning out to be successful. Two horsemen attacking have will win less than 3 times for every 7 that the mercenary wins. In this case, there was also the risk of starting F's golden age.

So, why did Bongo think the attack was a good idea? That is the question.

	30-09-2004 02:13									#134
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Come on, do you expect me to tell you the reasoning behind my actions? In the middle of a game?

	30-09-2004 03:31									#135
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quote: Originally posted by bongo 630bc to McMeadowsFlandrien: Knock knock

It looks like you marched a stack up to F's town, signaled you were about to attack in this quote -- why else did you go there -- didn't like the result, reloaded and then hit the isolated mercenary nearby to change the seed.

We can't prove that and would feel better about playing the game if you could fill us in. I have my doubts that you will be teaching us any secret civcraft that will reduce your edge in the rest of the game

	30-09-2004 11:26									#136
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Dogpiling, lying, backstabbing, and now you accuse me of cheating?

Are there anything you won't do to win this game?



As long as the game is in progress I will NOT 'fill you in' on my strategy etc.



If you think it is worth the effort, you can always contact Rommel2d as I'd be willing to share my thoughts with him, provided he don't pass them on to you.

	30-09-2004 11:54									#137
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590 BC to jshelr

At my barb infested spot at the sea, word had reached me that anger is again in the air. The "why attack" part is not all that important. Fact is that bongo has fought another lucky battle.

Were did you get that battle outcome prediction tool? Allthough it doesn't seem to be very accurate , it could give me some more insight in how my chances were in the lost battles.

Bongo, don't blame jshelr for being just as you are yourself, a fanatic and dedicated player. This game has had all the juice to it ever since the SoZ has been errected. I even enjoy being still in the game allthough I'm back to a 1 sized twonship and can't get anything produced due to the hordes of barbarians.

	30-09-2004 12:06									#138
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Try this, a nice little tool. Use with caution

http://www.zachriel.com/BattleCivulation.asp


I wrote a little perl-script which do the same job btw. More cumbersome to use, but in many cases much more flexible.

	30-09-2004 16:03									#139
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IMO, people who reload will kill pbem. Not amused when players take wild shots that seem to always work.

May my firstborn drop dead if I attack, lose, and reload.
Russ

If Bongo will also sign that pledge, I'll shut up.

	30-09-2004 16:08									#140
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FYI, it's already part of the tournament rules.

	30-09-2004 17:10									#141
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And I note that you have not actually denied reloading nor promised not to do it again.

By way of note, I specifically told you I did not require a 20 turn peace agreement as part of the earlier temporary stoppage of hostilities, I did deliver technology as promised while the agreement was in force, and my "backstabbing" was actually recapturing of a scout you earlier took from Russia. You seem to regard any resistance to your march toward victory as morally reprehensible.

So, stop calling me a liar and start producing reasonable battle results.

Sent.

	30-09-2004 17:30									#142
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I play by the rules. My combat results are *not* the result of reloading.


I call you a backstabber because that's what you are. You backstabbed McMeadows and you backstabbed me. McMeadows because he was your ally and you bribed me to go after him instead of you. Me because you never paid the bribe in full.

If you think my battle results are unreasonable I suggest you contact the admin.

	30-09-2004 19:06									#143
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Since you don't even know what agreements existed that were supposedly broken, the charge of backstabbing McM is bullshit. We did what we could do about the situation. Suicide attacks were not in the agreement.

I paid you in full. Maybe you foolishly imagined that the deal would last longer than it did. So, you got less than you expected. But I paid you in full.

The charge of reloading, as I said above, cannot be proved. But you are approaching a 6-sigma combat result for attacks up to now. That's not what bothers me. It still looks like you behave as though you expect 6-sigma combat results. I'll believe you are on the square when you start producing game behavior that looks vaguely reasonable.

	30-09-2004 20:51									#144
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quote: Originally posted by jshelr ...But you are approaching a 6-sigma combat result for attacks up to now...

What exactly is '6-sigma'? Got something to do with math or statistics?

	30-09-2004 21:02									#145
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quote: Originally posted by jshelr ... I paid you in full. Maybe you foolishly imagined that the deal would last longer than it did. So, you got less than you expected. But I paid you in full. ...

Here's a quote from the actual peace treaty:

2. When one of the following happens: First viking city falls to mongol forces, viking city get disbanded when mogol forces gets too close, or 15 turns of peace has passed. I am entitled to pick one of your techs, free of choice.

The conditions heve been met and I have *not* recieved the tech I requested. I fail to see how this can be defined as 'paying in full' unless 'paying in full' means 'I really screwed you there' in your language.


What really annoys me is not that you are such a bastard in diplomacy, it is that you go to such lenghts denying it.


Only joy left in this game for me now is to trash you thouroughly, and do it following the rules to the last comma so you can't complain afterwards.

	30-09-2004 21:44									#146
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Trying not to sound like Richard Nixon, I am not a liar. Here is why.

Around the time of the unfortunate attack on McM's stack, Bongo was missing maps, poly, and currency in the ancient era. These techs would look valuable to Bongo, but would actually be of little help in the war to come. That knowledge was the basis for paying the blackmail demands that followed.

We explained right up front that we did not want a 20-turn peace but merely wanted Bongo to see Russia was worth more to him alive than dead on a turn-by-turn basis.

We also determined that if we could delay his attack by giving incentives for waiting, McM would have time to build some spears for his chokepoint fort, and maybe even upgrade when we got feudalism in a few turns.

So, we agreed to give currency up front and another tech "when" Bongo actually attacked northward. This was not a blank check to be cashed anytime Bongo wanted. He could not wait for synthetic fibers and demand that tech.

We also agreed to sell tech at a steep discount, hoping he would decide to wait and buy poly first, which entitle him to collect engineering as his ransom demand. I didn't think Treb upgrades for his cats would help because he has no strong defenders to cover the artillery. (No iron.) Bongo discovered maps, but clearly had no reason to have gold. He had no units that could be upgraded. So, if he waited to get poly, McM had a chance to survive.

Shortly after the agreement went into effect, Bongo decided to see if he could bully me some more. He decided to have it both ways and changed the agreement.

He attacked McM, but demanded to wait before taking his free tech in ransom. Meantime, he was going to buy poly.

When a blackmailer decides to change the agreement every couple of turns, we go into our "yes Bongo" negotiation mode.

We ended up giving Bongo poly and currency as planned. He gave us 100 gold in addition. We would send it back, but it is invested in pike upgrades. He is welcome to come and collect any time he wants.

We have not called Bongo a cheat because we can't prove it. We have indicated strong circumstantial evidence that he knows the outcome of battles or is a wild man. We still simply want an explanation so we can feel comfortable playing.

You may be able to use the lucky wonder to trash one of us. But the joy left to me is that you likely can't trash both. Tech leads are such fun

Last edited by jshelr on 30-09-2004 at 21:52

	30-09-2004 22:18									#147
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quote: Originally posted by jshelr ... He attacked McM, but demanded to wait before taking his free tech in ransom. Meantime, he was going to buy poly...

For your information, 'asking' is not the same as 'demanding'. Rather than telling me straight out you didn't like the idea, you said 'ok'. Wasn't exactly being truthful there, were you?

Of course, the truth wouldn't given you such a beautiful opportunity to screw me over.

quote: We ended up giving Bongo poly and currency as planned. He gave us 100 gold in addition. We would send it back, but it is invested in pike upgrades. He is welcome to come and collect any time he wants.

I will...

quote: We have not called Bongo a cheat because we can't prove it. We have indicated strong circumstantial evidence that he knows the outcome of battles or is a wild man. We still simply want an explanation so we can feel comfortable playing.

(my emphasis)
Where is the evidence then? You're making some pretty serious 'indications' here.

	30-09-2004 22:42									#148
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Couldn't you have started getting pissed at each other a few centuries before?

You both play to the edge; see eachother as a worthy enemy.

Bongo offered me a peace treaty as well. He asked me to make a better offer than jshelr. I refused as I could see it would, in the long term, only benefit bongo, as it would probably choke me, meanwhile having my ally getting killed, leaving Flandrien and me, who were in eachothers way to fight bongo on 1 front. Therfore I choose to sacrifice myself in favour of my allies. I had hoped they would have counterattacked earlier than on the turn I lost my capital.......!
Just as well as I was not all that amused feudalism came without my money I gave jshelr, to avoid bongo from raiding it... so I could have taken more casualties on bongo's side at the last battle.

	30-09-2004 22:56									#149
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I have repeatedly kicked myself for trusting a guy who offered me a bribe for turning against his former allies

	30-09-2004 23:55									#150
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quote: Originally posted by bongo For your information, 'asking' is not the same as 'demanding'. Rather than telling me straight out you didn't like the idea, you said 'ok'. Wasn't exactly being truthful there, were you?

Being an old New Yorker, this is like a mugger saying to the cop after being caught

"I only asked for his wallet. He chose to give it to me."

I was mugged. Now I'm armed. Shut up and come on over. Let's see what you've got, even if it was produced entirely by luck.