24-09-2004 03:49									#1
	EU's "Exit from History" - a new meaning to the term "Old Europe&quot Tired of ads?

http://www.economist.com/printediti...tory_ID=1923383

quote: The fact that Europe's population is shrinking and ageing will inevitably also affect the aspirations of some Europeans to create a superpower to rival the United States. A recent report from the French Institute of International Relations predicts that, by the middle of the century, the EU's GDP will be growing at just over 1% a year compared with more than 2% in North America and at least 2.5% in China. The EU, the report gloomily concludes, faces a “slow but inexorable ‘exit from history' ”.

"Exit from history" sounds a bit extreme, but conversely I've seen some people list the EU as a future superpower in prediction threads.

quote: ...Fertility rates across Europe are now so low that the continent's population is likely to drop markedly over the next 50 years. The UN, whose past population predictions have been fairly accurate, predicts that the world's population will increase from just over 6 billion in 2000 to 8.9 billion by 2050. During the same period, however, the population of the 27 countries that should be members of the EU by 2007 is predicted to fall by 6%, from 482m to 454m. For countries with particularly low fertility rates, the decline is dramatic. By 2050 the number of Italians may have fallen from 57.5m in 2000 to around 45m; Spain's population may droop from 40m to 37m. Germany, which currently has a population of around 80m, could find itself with just 25m inhabitants by the end of this century, according to recent projections by Deutsche Bank, which adds: “Even assuming (no doubt unrealistically high) annual immigration of 250,000, Germany's population would decline to about 50m by 2100.” Combine a shrinking population with rising life expectancy, and the economic and political consequences are alarming. In Europe there are currently 35 people of pensionable age for every 100 people of working age. By 2050, on present demographic trends, there will be 75 pensioners for every 100 workers; in Spain and Italy the ratio of pensioners to workers is projected to be one-to-one. Since pensions in Germany, France and Italy are paid out of current tax revenue, the obvious implication is that taxes will have to soar to fund the pretty generous pensions that Europeans have got used to. The cost is already stretching government finances. Deutsche Bank calculates that average earners in Germany are already paying around 29% of their wages into the state pension pot, while the figure in Italy is close to 33%. .... But while the EU has a rich, old and shrinking population, countries on the Mediterranean's other side have poor, young, growing ones. The tide of immigrants, legal and illegal, crossing the sea is an obvious reaction. So shouldn't Europe be more liberal about immigration, to redress its population imbalance? An appealing idea. But the OECD calculates that immigration might have to be between five and ten times its current level just to neutralise the economic effects of ageing populations. Even today's inflow is causing political strains, with anti-immigration politicians like France's Jean-Marie Le Pen, Italy's Umberto Bossi and the Netherlands' late Pim Fortuyn popping up all over Europe.

http://www.ourplanet.com/aaas/pages/overview03.html

quote: Fertility is the most important factor in determining future population growth over the long run. A TFR of about 2.1 is needed to keep population stable over time. By 1995-2000 no less than 61 countries had fallen below this replacement level. Between them they housed 44 percent of the world’s population. Many developing countries had lower fertility than the United States – for example, China (with a TFR of 1.8), Thailand (1.74), Republic of Korea (1.65) and Cuba (1.55)2. Some 23 countries had very low fertility rates, below 1.5 in 1995-2000. The average fertility rate for Western Europe was only 1.7, while in Eastern Europe it was 1.36. The lowest rates of all were found in Southern Europe, where Spain, Italy and Greece had rates below 1.3. Spain was lowest of all with 1.15.

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/03/27/eu_pop030327

quote: The 15-nation European Union reached a turning point in 2000 when the population's momentum flipped from positive to negative. The number of children dropped to a level that statistically assured there will be fewer parents in the next generation than there are in the current generation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programm...ent/3117379.stm

quote: "The fact is, children cost too much." (Rafaele Lofiego, an Italian village bar owner) Either the next generation of workers will have to pay unthinkably high levels of tax, or the current, relatively generous benefits will have to be radically scaled back. .... When will Europeans wake up to the implications of consistently low birth rates? Well, in the words of one European professor of population studies, probably not until they are all in their wheelchairs and they suddenly realise there is no one left to push.

Thoughts?
Alternative EU "exit from history" predictions?

	24-09-2004 03:51									#2
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they need to let in more immigrants, thats all.

	24-09-2004 03:53									#3
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia they need to let in more immigrants, thats all.

quote: But the OECD calculates that immigration might have to be between five and ten times its current level just to neutralise the economic effects of ageing populations.

That's a hell of a lot more immigrants. And there is no guarantee Europe's politicians/voters would do that.

	24-09-2004 03:55									#4
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Well, it is vast immigration that keeps the US from going down the same road Europe and Japan are heading into. Both the EU and Japan can be seen as examples of what happens to a rich, peaceful society without much outside blood coming in.

	24-09-2004 03:57									#5
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quote: Germany, which currently has a population of around 80m, could find itself with just 25m inhabitants by the end of this century, according to recent projections by Deutsche Bank, which adds: “Even assuming (no doubt unrealistically high) annual immigration of 250,000, Germany's population would decline to about 50m by 2100.”

Not a fricken chance. These projections are bunk.

	24-09-2004 03:58									#6
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quote: The cost is already stretching government finances. Deutsche Bank calculates that average earners in Germany are already paying around 29% of their wages into the state pension pot, while the figure in Italy is close to 33%.

These numbers are most surely full of ****.

	24-09-2004 03:58									#7
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In other news, world population will decline to 0m except for the US which will remain healthy and powerful and the best nation in the world so nya nya nya nya nya

United Nations Annual Population Report, Page 213

	24-09-2004 04:03									#8
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All Europe needs is Ted Striker to do a whistle stop tour ans so increase fertility rates.

	24-09-2004 04:03									#9
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anyone read something by Mark Mazower? he says even in the 19th century, people were afraid of population declines in the near future, and fantastically low population figures in Europe by 1900 or 1950. as it turned out they were all proven wrong.

	24-09-2004 04:03									#10
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quote: Well, it is vast immigration that keeps the US from going down the same road Europe and Japan are heading into.

Perhaps, but the US has a TFR of 2.0 the last I saw.

	24-09-2004 04:07									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Ecthelion anyone read something by Mark Mazower? he says even in the 19th century, people were afraid of population declines in the near future, and fantastically low population figures in Europe by 1900 or 1950. as it turned out they were all proven wrong.

And predictions made by those even earlier, such as the world coming to an end by date x, were all proven wrong too.

	24-09-2004 04:07									#12
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People aren't hitting it enough, I think I need to inject some American libido into the lives of European women.

	24-09-2004 04:09									#13
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all projections suck, so fvck this thread.

	24-09-2004 04:10									#14
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quote: Originally posted by OzzyKP People aren't hitting it enough, I think I need to inject some American libido into the lives of European women.

Have you not been paying attention, European women are old.

	24-09-2004 04:15									#15
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quote: all projections suck, so fvck this thread.

It's not all projections. There are some statistics you can fvck too.

	24-09-2004 04:22									#16
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How do we know there won't be another baby boom?

	24-09-2004 04:24									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker How do we know there won't be another baby boom?

We don't, just as we don't know if TFRs will drop even further... or a war or a catastrophic disease, etc.

	24-09-2004 04:25									#18
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Gee, I wonder if this is now going to be used as a case to open the flood gates into America. How nice.

	24-09-2004 04:26									#19
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What would be wrong with that?

	24-09-2004 04:46									#20
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that would be a good thing - cuz im sure you too come from abroad, or at least your ancestors did.

	24-09-2004 05:49									#21
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Immigrants . The life blood of the US.

	24-09-2004 06:00									#22
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quote: Gee, I wonder if this is now going to be used as a case to open the flood gates into America. How nice.

Ummmmm why into America? Isn't the EU the one with the population problem hence being the one that 'should' want to open their floodgates?

Also

quote: What would be wrong with that?

	24-09-2004 06:03									#23
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I personally expect a new baby boom (albeit not one as radical as the one in the 40ies) in Europe before the crap really hits the fan. People will one day understand they'll need children to pay for their retirement, and politicians will one day understand that a natalist policy is extremely important to the continent's future.

A grand opening of the immigration gates would be a terrible blow to social cohesion across Europe altogether. We need time to integrate / assimilate immigrants in our societies, and we have mucho trouble already. The strength of Le Pen, Vlaams Blok, Haider, Pim Fortuyn etc. are symptoms of these difficulties.

	24-09-2004 06:47									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia they need to let in more immigrants, thats all.

they need to bring in about a billion immigrants during this century if Buchannans numbers are correct. This is with their own native populations imploding. Europe will cease to exist, and will pretty much be replaced by the immigrants that they are bringing in.

quote: Originally posted by Pyrodrew Perhaps, but the US has a TFR of 2.0 the last I saw.

its 2.07 I think. you need the 2 to cover both parents, and the .11 to cover infant mortality, being that this is the US we are probably fine.

quote: Originally posted by OzzyKP People aren't hitting it enough, I think I need to inject some American libido into the lives of European women.

No, this is not the case. People are accidents, there is no such thing as a "planned" parenthood. Look at the abortion figures and you will find out what is happening to Europe's population.

	24-09-2004 06:54									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha No, this is not the case. People are accidents, there is no such thing as a "planned" parenthood. Look at the abortion figures and you will find out what is happening to Europe's population.

There is such a thing as planned parenthood. People begin to have children when they drop contraception and actively try to reproduce. Sure, you can't predict for sure if the woman will become pregnant that evening or another (and your couple can even be unsuccessful at breeding for years), but with a little bit of sense, the whildren you make aren't accidents.

Now, I know American women have a different understanding of contracpetion as European ones (bar from Britain), but that doesn't mean that reproduction necessarily happens by accident.

	24-09-2004 06:56									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor There is such a thing as planned parenthood. People begin to have children when they drop contraception and actively try to reproduce. Sure, you can't predict for sure if the woman will become pregnant that evening or another (and your couple can even be unsuccessful at breeding for years), but with a little bit of sense, the whildren you make aren't accidents. Now, I know American women have a different understanding of contracpetion as European ones (bar from Britain), but that doesn't mean that reproduction necessarily happens by accident.

Nope, I have painted with my broadest brush, we are all accidents.

	24-09-2004 07:20									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia they need to let in more immigrants, thats all.

If continueing in the same trend of immigration expect further Islamification of EU.

	24-09-2004 08:04									#28
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I have to confess that I'm experiencing a bit of schadenfreude at the prospect that the ancestral and cultural homelands of the ethnic groups that have displaced and even erased so many indigenous peoples throughout the world will in turn themselves be peacefully displaced and erased by foreign ethnic groups in combination with a windfall of amazingly low native birthrates. It seems both refreshingly karmic and also mercifully benign for not producing any victims in the process except for the cultures themselves. This trend manages to accomplish this while sparing the by and large innocent living individuals who make up those soon to be marginalized cultures from the kind of ethnic cleasing that their ancestors took part in. Maybe there really is a God?


Peaceful victimless payback

Last edited by Geronimo on 24-09-2004 at 08:10

	24-09-2004 08:19									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I personally expect a new baby boom (albeit not one as radical as the one in the 40ies) in Europe before the crap really hits the fan. People will one day understand they'll need children to pay for their retirement, and politicians will one day understand that a natalist policy is extremely important to the continent's future. A grand opening of the immigration gates would be a terrible blow to social cohesion across Europe altogether. We need time to integrate / assimilate immigrants in our societies, and we have mucho trouble already. The strength of Le Pen, Vlaams Blok, Haider, Pim Fortuyn etc. are symptoms of these difficulties.

deal with it

Sissy Europeans not being able to deal with other cultures

	24-09-2004 08:24									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia they need to let in more immigrants, thats all.

That's only a temporary solution since the whole world's population growth is slowing. We're supposed to reach peak in 2050, and then the world wide population is supposed to begin declining.