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Pekka is offline Pekka
Chieftain
em seu burro dos pais!
Feb 2002
time: 07:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 05:07
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I agree that air campagn wouldn't do much good to this particular threat, quite the opposite, it would heat things up real bad. If someone needs to take those out, I say Israel might be the best man for the job and they could maybe pull it out.

Flip McWho is offline Flip McWho
Warlord
New Zealand
May 2002
time: 17:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 05:09
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Aye whats the famous quote concerning bombing **** to the ground but if you don't have the troops you can't hold the ground?

quote:
Yeah, but let's face it. Aside from the U.S., who really does?


True enough.

Zevico is offline Zevico
Chieftain
Melbourne
Apr 2002
time: 15:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 05:21
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Pax: 0/10. Do your trolling earlier in the day, it'll make for some better quality in your posting.

My question is--why does Europe see it in their interest to negotiate with Iran? As far as I can see, negotations wouldn't lead anywhere, given that Iran isn't exactly the most trustworthy and benevolent of nations. There's the reason of 'being different to America', but that seems very weak, especially since Iran country is about to get -nukes- and is quite a dangerous place already. Thoughts?

Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 07:18
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quote:
Originally posted by Richelieu


Have you called them evil yet? Cause i think you should call them evil. You know, it's like: you so need to bring God into this.


Richelieu, you really believe your own propaganda about right-wingers don't you. I am an agnostic and have said so many times.

Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 07:36
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Zevico, I think the Euro's are trying to head off a war. They know that Israel will strike Iran if they do not succeed in getting Iran to back down. Once that happens, Iran could react in very unpredictable ways, including cutting all oil shipments in the Persian Gulf using missiles and the like. That could affect Europe in a very adverse way.

Sirotnikov is offline Sirotnikov
King
<--- Yes, It's a "kitty" in a boot.
Feb 2000
time: 07:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 07:51
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Just think that if Iran gets nukes - it will be untouchable.

Just like NK is currently.


As president putin once said: Just because one country (Israel) is pruported to be a nuclear state, doesn't mean we need new ones.


And if you have any doubts about Iran: It is among the major sponsors of anti-Israeli terrorism. It is also still very much ideologically resistant to the "zionist" presence in the middle east/

Sirotnikov is offline Sirotnikov
King
<--- Yes, It's a "kitty" in a boot.
Feb 2000
time: 07:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 07:59
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quote:
Iran could react in very unpredictable ways, including cutting all oil shipments in the Persian Gulf using missiles and the like. That could affect Europe in a very adverse way.

In which case the europeans will finally start to care for changing the government in Iran. Sad, eh?

The Mad Monk is offline The Mad Monk
Emperor
of Ice Cream
Mar 2000
time: 23:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 08:15
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That's something I've brought up before.

Iran is already the major sponser of terrorism in the region, and probably around the world. It is also the primary source for the insurgents in Iraq. That's without the security guarantee of the bomb.

How far will they be willing to go once they have the security guarantee of the bomb?

I'm not talking about "handing nukes to terrorists". I'm talking about immunity to retaliation, even in the face of overt acts.

Agathon is offline Agathon
Prince
Leafs 4TW!! - CPA
Dec 2002
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 09:32
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Why does anyone think that Iran won't find itself in exactly the same situation as any nuclear power? Nuclear weapons serve only to deter, since a state conducting an offensive nuclear attack will be the subject of massive retaliation.

Iran won't attack Israel, and Israel won't attack Iran. The chance of Iran inviting massive Israeli retaliation by giving a nuclear warhead to Hezbollah is rather remote. Other than that, who cares?

Imran Siddiqui is offline Imran Siddiqui

Deity
The Potterverse
Jan 1970
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 09:47
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quote:
Law in international conlicts isn't quite the same as law between individuals.


And international law says that preemptive war is only legal when you have information that there will be an imminent attack and there is no time for negotiation. Not the case here.

And besides, no one is going to attack Iran. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, the country will not be an easy victory. It has a large military and is a mountanous country. It can simply decide to fight like guerillas and hide in the mountains, taking pot shots. Going after Iran would be a mistake.

Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 09:54
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Imran, let's use some common sense for a change. Israel would not "attack Iran" in the sense you mean. It would simply take out Iran's nuclear reactors and processing facilities. Iran could not respond with an attack on Israel as it has no way of getting its troops there now that Iraq is no longer has Saddam.

Israel has to do this now, before Iran's nuclear capability goes critical.

Imran Siddiqui is offline Imran Siddiqui

Deity
The Potterverse
Jan 1970
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 09:59
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quote:
It would simply take out Iran's nuclear reactors and processing facilities. Iran could not respond with an attack on Israel as it has no way of getting its troops there now that Iraq is no longer has Saddam.


Yes, and then that would be nice when the Arab World declares war on Israel or decides to stop giving the US support in Iraq. Use your brain for once, Ned and step into the real world. Israel/US and Arab relations are at its utter low. The Arab League would not tolerate it. And WORSE for the US, Iran would step it any efforts in Iraq to terrorist groups. Maybe even sponsor groups there.

You think terrorism is bad NOW in Iraq? If Isreael attacks Iran, it'd be catastrophic.

Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 10:00
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The Arab world? They would back the non Arab Iranians who are Shi'ites to boot? You forget that Saudi Arabi, Kuwait and others financed a war against Iran. Iran is the enemy of the Arab World.

Imran Siddiqui is offline Imran Siddiqui

Deity
The Potterverse
Jan 1970
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 10:03
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You are utterly demented aren't you? Israel attacks a Muslim country and the Arab would say ok? Have you lost your mind? SA, Kuwait backed Iraq in the Gulf War to keep the Balance of Power. Arab countries already feel the US is trying to begin a War on Islam. And Isreali attack on Iran would solidify that, and IS an act of war!

Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 10:08
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Legalities asside, your balance of power argument does carry some force.

Oncle Boris is offline Oncle Boris
Prince
Once in a brown moon
Aug 2001
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:10
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quote:
Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Comparing Israel to Nazi Germany is the height of absurdity. And it isn't in a war for resources, so comparing it to Japan is pretty stupid too.


So why are they denying the Palestinians access to drinking water?

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:12 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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BECAUSE THEY ARE EVIL AND EAT PALESTINIAN BABIES!!!1111

Oncle Boris is offline Oncle Boris
Prince
Once in a brown moon
Aug 2001
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:13
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quote:
Originally posted by The Mad Monk
Iran is already the major sponser of terrorism in the region, and probably around the world.


Last time I heard, it was the US that granted military aid to nearly 100 dictatorial countries in the world.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:14 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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I wasn't aware we were proping up the Swedish regime.

Oncle Boris is offline Oncle Boris
Prince
Once in a brown moon
Aug 2001
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:14
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quote:
Originally posted by Ted Striker
BECAUSE THEY ARE EVIL AND EAT PALESTINIAN BABIES!!!1111


Relax, I was just nitpicking about the idea that the war wasn't about resources.

Oncle Boris is offline Oncle Boris
Prince
Once in a brown moon
Aug 2001
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:15
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quote:
Originally posted by Ted Striker
I wasn't aware we were proping up the Swedish regime.


Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:15 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
Prince
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:26
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quote:
And air power has never won a war. Yes, we can bomb the **** out of most anyone, and it won't accomplish much of anything.


Who wants a war? I just want to blow the **** out of Iran's nuclear facilities...

Proteus_MST is offline Proteus_MST
Prince

Dec 2001
time: 06:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:45
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quote:
Originally posted by Kuciwalker

If it's against your vaunted international law, do something about it. Otherwise, it's not really against the law, is it?


There were many attempts to do it, by using UN-Resolution.

But almost everytime a draft for Resolution against Israel is brought before the Security Council it is stopped by the US using their Veto Rights

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 11:48 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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USA

Edan is offline Edan
Chieftain

Dec 2002
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 12:25
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quote:
Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
quote:
And air power has never won a war. Yes, we can bomb the **** out of most anyone, and it won't accomplish much of anything.


Who wants a war? I just want to blow the **** out of Iran's nuclear facilities...


Zevico is offline Zevico
Chieftain
Melbourne
Apr 2002
time: 15:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 12:27
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Agathon--you're right that the situation wouldn't seem to change so much if Iran had nuclear weapons. However, this is because the situation at present is a result of inaction (for whatever reason, perhaps Ned's suggestion of trying to prevent war) by the USA and European countries such as France or Germany. Theoretically, these countries could pressure Iran (or attack it, whatever) and thereby force it to cease supporting terrorists.
If Iran receives nukes, the amount of pressure that Europe and the USA could place on it is far decreased. Regime change would no longer be an option, as Iran would be likely to attempt at a nuke at someone--not necessarily Israel, but perhaps even places in Europe.

Imran: you make a good point; the chances of outright war with Arab nations such as Syria or Saudi Arabia do increase after this instance. However, keep in mind that it is not in these regimes' interest to go to war with Israel. They certainly didn't want to in 81', and Israel is more powerful militarily than it was back then. At the same time, the only thing Syria's army has been procuring is rust. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to try anything-they're unstable enough as it is (and I don't think I have an army to speak of). Iraq has no army to speak of anymore (as if it had one before the war either).
Egypt is a possible threat in this regard, but it is at peace with Israel as well, and declaring war won't win any brownie points with Europe and the USA.
Iran has no border with Israel and would have to use another country to get to Israel with an army. I doubt Syria would risk the displeasure of America by allowing Iranian troops through. I also doubt Iran's army is in any way competent or a viable threat against Israel.
The way it could be said is this: if the Arab countries were capable of putting up a fight and winning against Israel, they would have tried it already. However, they appear to have learnt from history and have settled for supporting terrorism instead.
Even if -all- of them attacked, the result would be a lackluster assault or even a defense (given Israel's penchant for pre emptive strikes); that in turn would result in cease fires as soon as Israel got close to the Arab capitals.

Edan is offline Edan
Chieftain

Dec 2002
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 12:31
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quote:
SA, Kuwait backed Iraq in the Gulf War to keep the Balance of Power.


Kuwait did what now?

germanos is offline germanos
Prince
behind a firm ****, Rotterdam, NL
Apr 2002
time: 06:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 14:52
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quote:
Originally posted by Edan


Kuwait did what now?



The Gulf War: as in the Iraq-Iran war.
Most (non-USA) people consider that the first Gulf War.

Imran Siddiqui is offline Imran Siddiqui

Deity
The Potterverse
Jan 1970
time: 00:22
  Old Post 27-09-2004 17:33
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quote:
the chances of outright war with Arab nations such as Syria or Saudi Arabia do increase after this instance. However, keep in mind that it is not in these regimes' interest to go to war with Israel. They certainly didn't want to in 81', and Israel is more powerful militarily than it was back then.


Who said it would be an 'outright' war? The Arab states have shown how powerful terrorist and guerrilla wars can be. All they have to do is increase funding for terror groups. Saudi Arabia, for one, knows the US isn't going to do anything to it.

 
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