27-09-2004 18:12									#91
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quote: Originally posted by Sirotnikov Just think that if Iran gets nukes - it will be untouchable. Just like NK is currently. As president putin once said: Just because one country (Israel) is pruported to be a nuclear state, doesn't mean we need new ones. And if you have any doubts about Iran: It is among the major sponsors of anti-Israeli terrorism. It is also still very much ideologically resistant to the "zionist" presence in the middle east/

1. Why isn't Israel "untouchable" then, if it is nuclear?
2. We don't need any nuclear powers at all- the idea of nuclear apartheid does not really work.
3. Correct about the third point, but it goes back to the first- why does anyone think Iran will hit a nuclear Israel? And with Israel threatening to attack Iran, and having the capability to do so, why shouldn't the Iranians prepare?

	27-09-2004 18:14									#92
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: And air power has never won a war. Yes, we can bomb the **** out of most anyone, and it won't accomplish much of anything. Who wants a war? I just want to blow the **** out of Iran's nuclear facilities...

Given Iran has several spread out accross the country, such an attack would most likely fail to stop the iranians, and give them every reason to leave the NPT and move to get nukes, while leaving the US not a leg to stand on to try to then institute sanctions.

	27-09-2004 18:18									#93
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Given Iran has several spread out accross the country, such an attack would most likely fail to stop the iranians, and give them every reason to leave the NPT and move to get nukes, while leaving the US not a leg to stand on to try to then institute sanctions.

Clear thinking GePap. Why such an attack by Israel on Iran might even force Iran into supporting terrorism against Israel and into seeking its ultimate destruction!

	27-09-2004 18:23									#94
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Clear thinking GePap. Why such an attack by Israel on Iran might even force Iran into supporting terrorism against Israel and into seeking its ultimate destruction!

Ned. You are losing form.

Answer the simple question Ned, why do you think Israel's nuclear deterent would not work against Iran?

	27-09-2004 18:31									#95
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GePap, the Iranians may not attack immediately. But their possession of nuclear weapons would destabalize the situation dramatically as neighboring states could now attack Israel knowing that Israel could no longer resort to nuclear weapons if she started to lose.

	27-09-2004 18:44									#96
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quote: Originally posted by Ned GePap, the Iranians may not attack immediately. But their possession of nuclear weapons would destabalize the situation dramatically as neighboring states could now attack Israel knowing that Israel could no longer resort to nuclear weapons if she started to lose.

That, of course, it utter bullshit. Are you telling me under your own logic that israel would allow itself to be destroyed by a conventional attack and not use its nuclear deterent to avoid destruction by Iranian nukes? Last time I looked, destruction = destruction.

Also, that ignores several facts:
1. the Only state that might actually go to war with Israel is Syria and Israel has a massive conventional superiority over Syria. Egypt, SA and Jordan ain't going to do **** vs. Israel.
2. It takes years to make a functioning and trustworthy nuclear missile- the Iranians are nowhere near yet to that.

So before you go off making claims, at least have a clue about the local military balance.

	27-09-2004 18:46									#97
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quote: While leaving the US not a leg to stand on to try to then institute sanctions.

Why would the US try to institute sanctions? Sanctions are worthless if you want to actually stop Iran from getting nukes.

	27-09-2004 18:46									#98
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GePap, I think the Israeli's would surrender or seek terms before using nukes if the Iranians had them.

As to the balance of power today, you are of course correct. But tomorrow could be different.

	27-09-2004 18:47									#99
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: While leaving the US not a leg to stand on to try to then institute sanctions. Why would the US try to institute sanctions? Sanctions are worthless if you want to actually stop Iran from getting nukes.

Actually, as with Iraq, they would be very usefull in stopping complex machine tools and other necessary equipment from the Iranians. At the least, the Russians would have to stop working on Bushwer (or whatever this reactor is called).

	27-09-2004 18:50									#100
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North Korea is one of, if not the most heavily sanctioned country in the world, showing us all how effective sanctions really are in preventing a determined nation from gaining WMDs...

	27-09-2004 18:53									#101
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quote: Originally posted by Ned GePap, I think the Israeli's would surrender or seek terms before using nukes if the Iranians had them.

Then you don't understand the Israeli mentality.

quote: As to the balance of power today, you are of course correct. But tomorrow could be different.

How? There really are no current trends which would mean Israel would lose its current military superiority in the region. Even if Iran became nuclear, that would only give it a retaliation abiality- but it has a very limited conventional reach.

	27-09-2004 18:53									#102
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Well, when someone, i.e., our ally Pakistan, gives them the plans and equipment, it's kinda hard for sanctions to work.

	27-09-2004 18:54									#103
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quote: Originally posted by Ned GePap, I think the Israeli's would surrender or seek terms before using nukes if the Iranians had them.

Like hell they would. They'd burn the whole ****ing ME before surrendering.

	27-09-2004 18:57									#104
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quote: Well, when someone, i.e., our ally Pakistan, gives them the plans and equipment, it's kinda hard for sanctions to work.

That's exactly my point. There's always someone who's willing to go against the sanctions, whether it's the Pakistanis, the Russians or the French. Sanctions are worthless for serious problems.

	27-09-2004 18:58									#105
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten North Korea is one of, if not the most heavily sanctioned country in the world, showing us all how effective sanctions really are in preventing a determined nation from gaining WMDs...

What the hell are you talking about? Exactly which international sanctions regime exists on NK? Last time I looked China trades freely with NK.

	27-09-2004 18:59									#106
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: Well, when someone, i.e., our ally Pakistan, gives them the plans and equipment, it's kinda hard for sanctions to work. That's exactly my point. There's always someone who's willing to go against the sanctions, whether it's the Pakistanis, the Russians or the French. Sanctions are worthless for serious problems.

The problem is that there are NO international sanctions on NK. The US and others may have unilateral sanctions, but there is no international sanctions regime.

	27-09-2004 19:05									#107
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Why are there no international sanctions on North Korea, GePap? Answer that question and you'll see that I'm exactly right.

	27-09-2004 19:05									#108
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quote: Originally posted by Ned The Arab world? They would back the non Arab Iranians who are Shi'ites to boot? You forget that Saudi Arabi, Kuwait and others financed a war against Iran. Iran is the enemy of the Arab World.

quote: Originally posted by Ned GePap, the Iranians may not attack immediately. But their possession of nuclear weapons would destabalize the situation dramatically as neighboring states could now attack Israel knowing that Israel could no longer resort to nuclear weapons if she started to lose.

Somehow these two statemenys do not compute

	27-09-2004 19:08									#109
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Why are there no international sanctions on North Korea, GePap? Answer that question and you'll see that I'm exactly right.

China's veto in the UN

And you are still wrong- the statement was that if there were international sanctions on Iran it would slow them down greatly-which is true. That the US can't muster world diplomatic support to do so is a different question.

We saw sanctions work against Iraq. According to all reports, a decade after Israel attacked Iraq's nuclear facilities, Iraq was on the verge of a nuke. 13 years after sanctions were placed, Iraqs nuclear program was still dead in the water.

	27-09-2004 19:12									#110
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quote: Originally posted by GePap China's veto in the UN And you are still wrong- the statement was that if there were international sanctions on Iran it would slow them down greatly-which is true. That the US can't muster world diplomatic support to do so is a different question. We saw sanctions work against Iraq. According to all reports, a decade after Israel attacked Iraq's nuclear facilities, Iraq was on the verge of a nuke. 13 years after sanctions were placed, Iraqs nuclear program was still dead in the water.

Ah, but Saddam's nuclear program was discovered by inspectors. The sanctions had nothing to do with ending Saddam's nuke program. The Gulf War did.

	27-09-2004 19:13									#111
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Many of you may be a bit unaware of the implications of the NPT- the baragin nuclear powres made to keep their hegemony. Signatories have every right to develop peaceful uses of nuclear technology. As it turns out (and we should all have known), the same tech that allows one to enrich uranium to stick in a reactor can be used to enrich uranium to stick in a bomb- but Iran has the right to enrich uranium under the NPT as long as the end results are monitored. The insistance on denying Iran its basic rights under the NPT will lead nowhere in the end.

The nuclear powers may try to rewrite the NPT, but I doubt the world will continue to simply accept as given the nuclear apartheid.

	27-09-2004 19:15									#112
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GePap, it is my understanding that Iran has been lying.

	27-09-2004 19:15									#113
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Ah, but Saddam's nuclear program was discovered by inspectors. The sanctions had nothing to do with ending Saddam's nuke program. The Gulf War did.

Inspections were part of the sanctions regime inplemented after the Gulf War.

	27-09-2004 19:16									#114
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quote: Originally posted by Ned GePap, it is my understanding that Iran has been lying.

Iran has not declared all its activities, which it is supposed to do as a signatory of the NPT. What the US is demanding now is to strip Iran of its rights as a signatory. Of course, Iran could then just pull out of the NPT and no longer submit at all to any inspection.

	27-09-2004 19:16									#115
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Inspections were part of the sanctions regime inplemented after the Gulf War.

If you get adequate inspections in Iran, I think both the US and Israel would be satisfied.

Adequate is the key word.

	27-09-2004 19:18									#116
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quote: Originally posted by Ned If you get adequate inspections in Iran, I think both the US and Israel would be satisfied. Adequate is the key word.

I agree there-but then Iran has many reasons to want nukes. Iran wanted nukes under the Shah and I think most of Iran's establishment, including reformers, have no problems with a nuclear Iran, just like moderates in pakistan and India.

	27-09-2004 20:39									#117
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Ah, but Saddam's nuclear program was discovered by inspectors. The sanctions had nothing to do with ending Saddam's nuke program. The Gulf War did.

Something doesn't make sense here.

Saddam didn't have a nuclear program after Gulf War I, when the embargo began.

	27-09-2004 20:59									#118
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quote: Originally posted by Ned The Arab world? They would back the non Arab Iranians who are Shi'ites to boot? You forget that Saudi Arabi, Kuwait and others financed a war against Iran. Iran is the enemy of the Arab World.

Not as much as they hate the Zionist Entity^TM.

	27-09-2004 21:02									#119
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Why are there no international sanctions on North Korea, GePap? Answer that question and you'll see that I'm exactly right.

Other than charity and illicit trade in missile technology, the DPRK doesn't do much external trade except with the PRC. Sanctions would be an even more pointless symbolic exercise than they usually are, but this time, applied against a paranoid psychotic who makes Idi Amin look like a paragon of lucidity.

	27-09-2004 21:27									#120
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: And air power has never won a war. Yes, we can bomb the **** out of most anyone, and it won't accomplish much of anything. Who wants a war? I just want to blow the **** out of Iran's nuclear facilities...

Generally, most folks would consider that starting a war.