01-11-2004 06:40									#391
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But undecideds are breaking for Kerry.

	01-11-2004 06:40									#392
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We're a true reflection of the American people

	01-11-2004 06:45									#393
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No, Americans think Bush will win big.

	01-11-2004 06:51									#394
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov There's no evidence to support that "likelihood," however. Undecideds tend to be people who are unhappy with the incumbent but waiting to see how things play out until the last moment. That's why they heavily break for challengers. Bush hasn't done anything to help his terrorism/security stand in the last week, and it has actually been hurt by the Al Qaaqaa story. Now the Bin Laden tape surfaces and reminds people that Bush has failed to capture him. And tonight 60 minutes is airing a damning story about the administration's ineptitude in planning and running the Iraq war. If undecideds follow the momentum, they go Kerry. Edit: And as an aside, the Gallup poll showed among RV that the biggest issue by far was the economy.

I'm still not sure how the Bin Ladin tape will play out.

In my opinion as yours it shows Bush's inability to get him.

But it could help him. It could remind americans that he is still alive, out there, and planning future 9/11 style attacks on the U.S. Americans may believe Bush is the best person to protect us from these as we haven't had an attack since 9/11.

	01-11-2004 06:56									#395
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The Washington Redskins game that is played before the election, is a good predictor of who will win the election.

If Washington wins, the President wins the election. If Washington loses, the President loses the election.

Today the Green Bay Packers OWNED the Redskins.

By that statistic, Bush will lose.

I don't think things are going to be as close as people think. I think Bush is going to get beat by at least 5 points.

	01-11-2004 06:59									#396
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quote: Originally posted by DanS No, Americans think Bush will win big.

That's where I suspect its going.

	01-11-2004 07:03									#397
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Also can be read as, "we are overestimating Bush's chances."


Kinda like we overestimated his ability to tell the truth and find weapons of mass destruction.

	01-11-2004 07:03									#398
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I hope so.

	01-11-2004 07:08									#399
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo But undecideds are breaking for Kerry.

But,...

quote: "Since undecideds are likely to worse-case split their ballots, then being at fifty doesn't bother us at all," Dowd said. "And actual undecideds right now are slightly breaking towards us." Newsweek and Pew do have Mr. Bush at or above 50. Newport said historically the challenger gets more of the undecideds but he had no estimate of how they will split this year.

link

	01-11-2004 07:13									#400
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1. I was referring to the poll in this thread, not the election (see the previous post).
2. Matthew Dowd is Bush's personal pollster and strategist. Don't believe anything he says.
3. If you want to see how some of the undecideds are moving, check this out:
http://www.nowchannel.com/tracking/
Most of the movement will happen when the undecideds actually vote, though.

	01-11-2004 07:27									#401
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quote: Originally posted by DanS No, Americans think Bush will win big.

you're funny

	01-11-2004 07:27									#402
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Republican attempts at fraud and suppressing the vote are out in full force, here are some early reports that are coming in.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/31/192155/73

	01-11-2004 07:30									#403
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quote: Originally posted by monkspider Republican attempts at fraud and suppressing the vote are out in full force, here are some early reports that are coming in. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/31/192155/73

Disgusting.

-Drachasor

	01-11-2004 07:37									#404
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Yep, saw that earlier.



Lake County is in Ohio.

	01-11-2004 07:51									#405
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quote: Originally posted by DanS No, Americans think Bush will win big.

*Cough* *Cough* Some of us think we'll see a 20 electoral college vote lead for Kerry followed by endless law suites filed by the Republicans as they attempt to change the results.

	01-11-2004 07:54									#406
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo 3. If you want to see how some of the undecideds are moving, check this out: http://www.nowchannel.com/tracking/

The one with the Kerry/Edwards ad centered about eye level?

	01-11-2004 07:55									#407
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin *Cough* *Cough* Some of us think we'll see a 20 electoral college vote lead for Kerry followed by endless law suites filed by the Republicans as they attempt to change the results.

	01-11-2004 07:56									#408
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quote: In a letter, Berkeley County clerk John Smalls cites calls from a cell phone were made to Eastern Panhandle democrats telling them that they were not registered to vote. The letter also said the calls informed democrats in some cases they wouldn`t be able to vote on Election Day [...] It`s considered an improper act because when upset citizens called the voter registration office to make sure they were registered to vote, indeed they were. So, who made these misleading calls? The Berkeley County Clerk`s Office traced the number voters gave as the source back to the Eastern Panhandle Republican Headquarters.

This is coming from the official Republican Party Headquarters for the state?! Jesus, don't these guys have any sham what so ever?

	01-11-2004 07:57									#409
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quote: The one with the Kerry/Edwards ad centered about eye level?

You can verify that they're listing the polls correctly by clicking on the links on top.



It's interesting that you referred to RCP earlier, which is a Republican site.

	01-11-2004 08:13									#410
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For me voting comes down to trust. Even if we don't include the whoppers Bush told about Iraq then we still have the daily lies Bush is telling during the campaign plus we have the lies told back in 2000 about Fede4ral energy and enviromental policy. How can anyone trust anything Bush says? I can't vote for a man like that.

Then I have a personal grievence in the form of 2001's energy crisis in California. It was clear to everyone who looked that Enron was working the system and when the state of California asked Bush's head of the Federal Utility Commission to stop Enron's illegal activity we got told off. The govornor was told that California votes Democratic and to go ask Democrates for help because Bush's guys wouldn't do it.

What ever happened to stopping illegal activity because it was their job? I can only guess that Enron's massive payments to the Bush Campaign in 2000 also influenced the way Bush and his boy's saw things. Either way the people of California got royalely screwed by Enron and Bush refused to lift a finger to enforce the law.

	01-11-2004 10:07									#411
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One more thing to consider. Who is the taller candidate. I haven't verified this, but I heard the taller candidate has won almost every single election we've ever had.

And I do believe Kerry is taller. And the Redskins lost. What more proof do you need?

	01-11-2004 10:07									#412
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Kerry is like 6'4" and Bush is like 5'10" to 6'.

	01-11-2004 10:11									#413
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quote: Originally posted by Tuberski Doesn't matter who wins the election. The American people are going to be the losers...... ACK!

Sadly, that's about how I feel. I suspect Bush will win, because he'll pull out in Florida (they always forget the huge military vote, like in 2000, that was nearly taken away from him by Gore's equally icky legalistic shenanigans) and in Ohio, which is enough to give him the victory.

However, neither of them are good candidates ... and that's coming from a conservative federalist

(of course, the fact that the second word in that description no longer has any meaning in the US is most of why ... sigh.)

	01-11-2004 10:13									#414
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Oh, Kerry is gonna win, the Redskins lost today.

The incumbent always loses when the Redskins lose the Sunday before.

ACK!

	01-11-2004 10:16									#415
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker The Washington Redskins game that is played before the election, is a good predictor of who will win the election. If Washington wins, the President wins the election. If Washington loses, the President loses the election. Today the Green Bay Packers OWNED the Redskins. By that statistic, Bush will lose. I don't think things are going to be as close as people think. I think Bush is going to get beat by at least 5 points.

You can't get beat by 5 points. You get beat by electoral college votes; even if Kerry won the % 52.5-47.5 (5 points), he could still easily lose.

And before I get barraged into "Bah, that shows how screwed up this is", I'll put in my two cents for why that's just fine by me. We started out as a federation - not a unified state- and that's why we have an electoral college. Each state should have some meaningful say in who is President, not just three or four states (California, Texas, New York could pretty much decide the election %-wise, if they voted in blocks). States like New Mexico (5 electoral votes, but only 3 million population) and Wyoming (3 votes, less than 1 million population) should have some say in who leads them, and not get 'bullied' by large states with huge populations. That's where we come from as a nation, and it's how it should be: A federalist system which gives certain rights and duties to the federal government (note the name? ) that are necessary to be accomplished by a central entity, but with most duties performed by the individual states.

Ok, enough ranting.

	01-11-2004 10:17									#416
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quote: Originally posted by Tuberski Oh, Kerry is gonna win, the Redskins lost today. The incumbent always loses when the Redskins lose the Sunday before. ACK!

And increasing my post count even more on this thread ...

When they lose the previous Home Game. Not the sunday before (could be a monday) necessarily, and not away games.

But otherwise technically accurate. (Well, cut it off at 1937 as well; I believe they lost in 1936 and FDR still won his second term.)

	01-11-2004 10:19									#417
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quote: Originally posted by snoopy369 You can't get beat by 5 points.

Yeah you can. Stop smoking.

	01-11-2004 10:21									#418
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quote: Originally posted by snoopy369 And increasing my post count even more on this thread ... When they lose the previous Home Game. Not the sunday before (could be a monday) necessarily, and not away games. But otherwise technically accurate. (Well, cut it off at 1937 as well; I believe they lost in 1936 and FDR still won his second term.)

You know what I meant, Besides I got the important part right, they lost TODAY.



ACK!

	01-11-2004 10:31									#419
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Man, 77/77. Has the race in this thread been this tight all of the time?

	01-11-2004 10:36									#420
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quote: But otherwise technically accurate. (Well, cut it off at 1937 as well; I believe they lost in 1936 and FDR still won his second term.)

But in 1936 they were the Boston Redskins (they moved after that year)... so that doesn't count .