02-11-2004 04:44									#451
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according to latimes.com

Attachment: electoraltie2.jpg
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	02-11-2004 04:50									#452
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What's with Hawaii btw?? Isn't that traditionally democratic?

	02-11-2004 05:07									#453
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You can exchange Hawaii with New Hampshire, it's the same.

	02-11-2004 05:24									#454
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quote: May I ask when is the election going to start and end and when are the exit polls going to be publicised? Give your answers in GMT please. Now it's Monday, 1/10, 14:40 GMT

Polls run from around 7:00 am (12:00 GMT, 13:00 GMT, 14:00 GMT, 15:00 GMT in each of the 4 time zones) to 9:00 pm (Wednesday 2:00 GMT, 3:00 GMT, 4:00 GMT, 5:00 GMT, in each of the 4 times zones).

As polls close, they report actual results. The action will be around 3:00 GMT Wednesday, because that's when Ohio and Pennsylvania report their numbers (Florida's come an hour later, since a small portion of the state is GMT -6). The press will not likely call the race until well into the evening, even based on exit polling.

In the extremely unlikely event that Hawaii is the deciding state, we will have a long night. Hawaii polls probably close around 7:00 GMT Wednesday, so you will start getting actuals from Hawaii around 8:00 GMT Wednesday.

Exit polling may be released by Drudge about 2 or 3 pm Tuesday (19:00 or 20:00 GMT), if somebody leaks the numbers.

	02-11-2004 05:36									#455
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So if Ohio and Pennsylvania make a president, Hawaiian late voters will know about it and won't be arsed to show up to vote? Stupid system. Results should be kept secret until polls in Hawaii close.

	02-11-2004 06:27									#456
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If each state wanted to do that, they could. Actually, if each state wanted to flip a coin to see who won the state's electors, they could do that as well.

In any event, consider that most areas will have 20 to 30 other offices or initiatives on the ballot. There's plenty of reason for Hawaiians to vote, even if they know the outcome of the presidential election before voting.

	02-11-2004 06:36									#457
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There has been some talk of rogue electoral college members who won't vote for Bush even if their state does.

	02-11-2004 06:36									#458
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Zogby's last Electoral Map projection. Look familiar?

Attachment: fpusa.gif
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	02-11-2004 06:41									#459
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse There has been some talk of rogue electoral college members who won't vote for Bush even if their state does.

Higly unlikely since they're members of the Republican Party. Each candidate has their own electors.

	02-11-2004 07:01									#460
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Further, if Bush is winning in the electoral college and there are one or more faithless electors who goes neutral, then Bush would win via the congress.

	02-11-2004 08:30									#461
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quote: Originally posted by axi So if Ohio and Pennsylvania make a president, Hawaiian late voters will know about it and won't be arsed to show up to vote? Stupid system. Results should be kept secret until polls in Hawaii close.

The polls in Hawaii close at the same time as on the West Coast, that is 11 PM Eastern. If you must worry, it should be about Alaska, where polls are open till 1 AM Eastern.

But then Alaska is hardly a swing state.

	02-11-2004 08:35									#462
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Further, if Bush is winning in the electoral college and there are one or more faithless electors who goes neutral, then Bush would win via the congress.

But what if a faithless elector swings it one way? I imagine that will go to the courts.

	02-11-2004 09:07									#463
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No, it wouldn't go to the courts. If one candidate has a majority of electoral votes, he wins. If no one gets a majority, the Presidency goes to the House, where they decide among the top three, and the Veep is selected by the Senate (which could lead to strange situations like a Shrub/Kerry Admin).

Last edited by Ramo on 02-11-2004 at 09:20

	02-11-2004 09:08									#464
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quote: Higly unlikely since they're members of the Republican Party. Each candidate has their own electors.

It still happens reasonably often. The DC elector, for instance, abstained from voting for Gore.

	02-11-2004 09:16									#465
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: Higly unlikely since they're members of the Republican Party. Each candidate has their own electors. It still happens reasonably often. The DC elector, for instance, abstained from voting for Gore.

But, nothing was on the line. That one EV wouldn't have cost Gore the election. It's easy to abstain in such situations.

	02-11-2004 09:19									#466
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Just making the point that it does happen.

	02-11-2004 09:22									#467
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse Is civil war a possibility? *runs*

americans are too lazy and apathetic to ever do such a thing. I can gurantee there will never be a revolution or civil war in the U.S.

	02-11-2004 09:24									#468
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quote: Originally posted by alva What time can we start to get some results ( even early exit-poll results)

haven't we learned from 2000 how worthless they are?

I still remember both Brokow and Rather declaring Florida a lock for Bush. And then they said Kerry had it. Then Bush.

	02-11-2004 09:28									#469
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse There has been some talk of rogue electoral college members who won't vote for Bush even if their state does.

yep, In West Virginia of all places.

This is why I don't think we'll see a 269 to 269 tie.

	02-11-2004 09:31									#470
	Tired of ads?

Something fun from today's papers:

Today's Washington Post has summarized the election speculation of 13 professionals who participate in their annual "Crystal Ball" predictions. The article is here but requires registration.

Unsurprisingly, of the non-partisan predictors, some picked Kerry and some picked Bush.

Even less surprisingly, of the partisan predictors, GOP-ers like Ann Coultor and William Kristol picked Bush, Dems like Donna Brazille and Ana Marie Cox ("Wonkette") picked Kerry.

BUT, Tucker Carlson, the conservative half of Crossfire and the man who criticized Jon Stewart for being John Kerry's "butt boy," is calling the election for Kerry, with 51.5% of the vote and 278 electoral votes.

Carlson, incidently, is the Post contest's defending champ.

	02-11-2004 09:33									#471
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident haven't we learned from 2000 how worthless they are? I still remember both Brokow and Rather declaring Florida a lock for Bush. And then they said Kerry had it. Then Bush.

You stuck in a time warp?



Gore -- not Kerry in 2000.

	02-11-2004 09:34									#472
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident haven't we learned from 2000 how worthless they are? I still remember both Brokow and Rather declaring Florida a lock for Bush. And then they said Kerry had it. Then Bush.

You realize you just said "Kerry" instead of "Gore," right?

For my part, I typed "Gore" in my last post when I meant "Kerry," and only caught it at the last minute.

I can't believe we're about to go through this again.

	02-11-2004 10:34									#473
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quote: Originally posted by MrFun You stuck in a time warp? Gore -- not Kerry in 2000.

err yeah, that Gore guy. I completely forgotten who he was.

	03-11-2004 06:35									#474
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Oh, Ben?


Kerry wins New Jersey.


So where are you located in Canada, anyway? I'll look up your local Planned Parenthood.

	03-11-2004 07:02									#475
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Just saw it myself.

They finally called it up here.

So now I'm holding out for Oregon.

	03-11-2004 07:03									#476
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quote: So where are you located in Canada, anyway? I'll look up your local Planned Parenthood.

On campus. So I'll tell them I lost a bet.

	03-11-2004 07:04									#477
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What's the differential in New Jersey?

	03-11-2004 07:06									#478
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54-45 with 24% of precincts reporting.


Where are you in Canada, anyway? I don't think I've ever known.

	03-11-2004 07:08									#479
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That ain't enough to declare.

I'm in Vancouver right now.

I even posted today saying that.

Just look at the English speaking Canadian thread.

	03-11-2004 07:12									#480
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Bah. I don't have nearly enough time to look at every thread with the word "Canadian" in it, as much as I'd like to.

Love Vancouver. Wish I were there.

UBC?