11-10-2004 05:28									#91
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it'd be cool if we could get the highest turnout ever for this election.

	11-10-2004 08:53									#92
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Maybe voter turnout will go all the way up to 60%.

	11-10-2004 09:01									#93
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quote: 5 points is a lot, but polls can move that much in a couple of days, no problem. Still way too close to call.

Zogby's tracking poll shows Kerry up by one (margin up by two from a couple days ago).

	11-10-2004 09:08									#94
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Why the Kerry will win:

1. Polls show the race tied.
2. Bush has more ground to defend in the electoral college than Kerry.
3. The Dems have a massive ground operation. In 2000, it put Gore up a few points from the polls. And it's much better this time around.
4. Undecideds almost always break for the challenger. Final polls are ceilings for incumbents, floors for challengers. Since 4 years of knowing the incumbent hadn't convinced voters to go for them, another few days won't make a difference. Further, if you look at the internals of various polls, undecideds have absolutely dismal approval ratings for Bush.

	11-10-2004 09:12									#95
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I truly want Kerry to win, but since Bush is a war-time incumbent, that might work in Bush's favor.

	11-10-2004 09:36									#96
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Colorado for Kerry!

	11-10-2004 11:00									#97
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Bush is going to win

	11-10-2004 11:43									#98
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Yes, Bush will win - and I so hope on election night that the mods will allow all the lefties here to voice their true feelings on the result. Over and over again.

I can't wait.

	12-10-2004 02:13									#99
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Really odd. WaPo has Bush up 6 points while Zogby has Kerry up 3. Not sure what to make of this pretty huge discrepancy. These are both supposed to be the accurate kind of polls (samples of 1,500 and 1,200, respectively), but the margins of error don't overlap.

	12-10-2004 02:53									#100
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I have a feeling the Dems will retake Congress because Bush ads have been saying "John Kerry and Liberals in Congress" alot. So Rove is obviously worrying about Congress.

	12-10-2004 03:06									#101
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I too am fairly sure Bush will win, winning pretty much the exact same states as last time. I won't be too pleased, but I think I can learn to live with it eventually like I have the last four years.

At least it will keep Doonesbury decent.

	12-10-2004 03:13									#102
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I actually think that Bush will take this one after all is said and done.

	12-10-2004 04:22									#103
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quote: Inflate your Upload Space Really odd. WaPo has Bush up 6 points while Zogby has Kerry up 3. Not sure what to make of this pretty huge discrepancy. These are both supposed to be the accurate kind of polls (samples of 1,500 and 1,200, respectively), but the margins of error don't overlap.

WaPo probably has a crappy LV model. They're tied among RV's in that poll.

	12-10-2004 11:24									#104
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Really odd. WaPo has Bush up 6 points while Zogby has Kerry up 3. Not sure what to make of this pretty huge discrepancy. These are both supposed to be the accurate kind of polls (samples of 1,500 and 1,200, respectively), but the margins of error don't overlap.

Gallup has Kerry +1, and other polls have showed the race a dead heat or slight Kerry advantage. I would have to agree with Ramo's conclusion that something is off with WaPo's LV model.

	12-10-2004 11:36									#105
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quote: Originally posted by Odin I have a feeling the Dems will retake Congress because Bush ads have been saying "John Kerry and Liberals in Congress" alot. So Rove is obviously worrying about Congress.

Could happen. I saw a poll with a "would you rather vote for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress" question and the Dems were leading by a fair bit. Perhaps a lot of people who're pissed at Bush but don't like Kerry will take it out on Republicans in Congress.

Of course there probably won't be much change in the Senate, since the Dems are defending more open seats but with the House who knows?

	27-10-2004 01:57									#106
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bump

	27-10-2004 02:06									#107
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It's far more likely that the Dems will retake the Senate than the House, IMO. Due to how gerrymandered the system is, the change in the House will probably be minimal (and due to redistricting, and Dems have basically lost a few seats to start with). The Senate has a pretty good chance of turning blue, though.

	27-10-2004 09:47									#108
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo The Senate has a pretty good chance of turning blue, though.

Not sure if I see it that way. What seats do you think are vulnerable? Are any Dem seats vulnerable?

I still see a Republican sweep coming. The race for the White House is probably the closest.

	27-10-2004 09:55									#109
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I predict a Bush blowout.

remember to bump this thread next Tuesday night. I like to be right . Even though I'm rooting for Kerry.

	27-10-2004 10:02									#110
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo It's far more likely that the Dems will retake the Senate than the House, IMO. Due to how gerrymandered the system is, the change in the House will probably be minimal (and due to redistricting, and Dems have basically lost a few seats to start with). The Senate has a pretty good chance of turning blue, though.

Probably not gunna happen. It'll be a dem victory to just keep things the way they are in the Senate since the Dems are defending more open seats, although what with a couple of Republican candidates going completely loony (like the apparently senile one in Kentucky who demanded that he debade from RNC HQ in DC and then used a teleprompter) you never know...

	27-10-2004 10:02									#111
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident I predict a Bush blowout.

I see a Bush victory as well but I don't think anyone is seeing a blowout.

	27-10-2004 11:23									#112
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According to the really neat election map the LA Times has, and their polling data, the win goes to Kerry. Here are some states I transcribed for y'all, based on the most recent polling data available.

Florida
Kerry 49%
Bush 46%

Ohio
Kerry 49%
Bush 47%

Michigan
Kerry 49%
Bush 43%

Pennslyvania
Kerry 51%
Bush 46%

New Hampshire
Kerry 50%
Bush 41%

New Jersey
Kerry 50%
Bush 43%

New Mexico
Kerry 48%
Bush 46%

Oregon
Kerry 49%
Bush 43%

Safely Kerry:
California
Maryland
New York
Illinois
Vermont
DC
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Maine



Nevada
Bush 49%
Kerry 47%

Missouri
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%

Arizona
Bush 50%
Kerry 45%

Wisconsin
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%

West Virginia
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%

Safely Bush:
Mississippi
Texas
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
Virginia
Wyoming
Montana
Idaho
North Dakota
South Dakota
Utah
Kansas
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Alaska
Louisiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
Indiana
Colorado

	27-10-2004 12:39									#113
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just from the news coverage downunder

Bush Junior gets a better coverage

Kerry is presented as a flip flop sort of fella

	27-10-2004 13:01									#114
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Who will win the election? Me.

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...threadid=124374

	27-10-2004 13:04									#115
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quote: Originally posted by OzzyKP According to the really neat election map the LA Times has, and their polling data, the win goes to Kerry. Here are some states I transcribed for y'all, based on the most recent polling data available.

Looks good (and nice coloring BTW). I would only disagree on Florida, New Mexico, and maybe Ohio.

	27-10-2004 16:05									#116
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Bush 48 48.00%
Kerry 52 52.00%
Total: 100 voters 100%

ooh

	27-10-2004 16:23									#117
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quote: Probably not gunna happen. It'll be a dem victory to just keep things the way they are in the Senate since the Dems are defending more open seats, although what with a couple of Republican candidates going completely loony (like the apparently senile one in Kentucky who demanded that he debade from RNC HQ in DC and then used a teleprompter) you never know...

The Dems are defending more open seats, but I'd say that they have the general advantage. The way I see it:

-Daschle will very likely hold his seat in SD.
-Castor has a slight edge in retaining the Dem seat in FL.
-Obama will certainly take over in IL.
-Salazar will very likely take over in CO.
-Carson has a slight edge in taking over in OK.
-Knowles has a slight edge in taking over in AK.
-Montigardo (sp?) has a slight edge in taking over in KY.

That's Dem+5.

-The GA guy will very likely retain the GOP seat (counting Zell as GOP ).
-DeMint has a slight edge in taking over in SC.
-Burr has a slight edge in taking over in NC.

GOP +2.

Kerry's seat will be taken over by a Dem (probably Barney Franks). And no candidate will get 50% in LA, most likely, so the seat will be decided later.

Which means a slight Democratic advantage in the Senate, depending on LA.

	27-10-2004 20:10									#118
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Ramo:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Senate.html

quote: -Daschle will very likely hold his seat in SD.

The spread has Thune up on Dascle by 0.5%. It'll be close, but Thune could win just as easily.

quote: -Castor has a slight edge in retaining the Dem seat in FL.

Yep, the spread is 0.8% in favor of Castor.

quote: -Salazar will very likely take over in CO.

Salazar has a spread edge of 2.2, so seems likely.

quote: -Carson has a slight edge in taking over in OK.

You must be kidding.

The RealClear spread is 3.7%, which is a pretty good size.

quote: -Knowles has a slight edge in taking over in AK.

Yeah, he's polling +2 to +6.

quote: -Montigardo (sp?) has a slight edge in taking over in KY.

Another . Throw in another

Bunning has a 10.5% lead in the spread.


So that makes it more like Dems +3 (whith the Republicans having a chance to make it +4 if Daschle loses).

	27-10-2004 20:33									#119
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This has been downloaded 58 time(s).

	27-10-2004 21:20									#120
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quote: You must be kidding. The RealClear spread is 3.7%, which is a pretty good size.

3.7% is barely outside the margin of error of most of the polls, could very easily change. I'm not sure how RCP calculates its spread, either, I'm just saying what I think given the trend of the race.

quote: Another . Throw in another Bunning has a 10.5% lead in the spread.

As Boshko pointed out, Bunning's campaign is imploding. Bunning is currently running away from the press. And the debates have been a disaster. In the first debate, which he had already agreed upon, Bunning insisted on staying in DC conducting it by satellite, and had an actual teleprompter. In the second (again, one he agreed upon), he simply didn't show. He's also been saying some real bizarre stuff, like that Montigardo looks like Uday/Qusay. Rumor is that he's going crazy.

The most recent polls show him up by only 6 or so, and the trend has been hugely against his favor (it used to be a far larger difference, just a couple weeks ago).

quote: The spread has Thune up on Dascle by 0.5%. It'll be close, but Thune could win just as easily.

Thune's campaign has been imploding too. There's been a pretty big campaign scandal, can't recall what it was though. Thune's nephew was involved somehow.