29-10-2004 03:39									#151
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I undertand that Bush has taken a two point lead in Pennsylvannia in some polls. I heard this on Hannity's radio show. If so, Bush would be in the lead. As it is, Kerry hold as slight lead, 260-254, in the following from electoral-vote.com:

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	29-10-2004 03:44									#152
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PA polls of the past week:

Pollster
Polling Date
Bush
Kerry
Nader
MoE

Zogby ($)
October 27
46.1%
48.9%
---
4.1%

LA Times ($)
October 26
49.0%
47.0%
0.0%
3.9%

LA Times
October 26
48.0%
48.0%
---
4.0%

Gallup
October 26
47.0%
50.0%
---
4.0%

Quinnipiac
October 26
49.0%
47.0%
---
3.3%

ARG
October 25
47.0%
50.0%
---
4.0%

Survey USA
October 25
45.0%
53.0%
---
3.5%

Zogby ($)
October 24
45.4%
47.3%
---
4.1%

Rasmussen ($)
October 24
47.0%
49.0%
---
??

Keystone
October 23
46.0%
51.0%
---
3.9%

Muhlenberg College
October 22
46.0%
48.0%
---
3.5%

Mason-Dixon ($)
October 21
44.0%
46.0%
---
4.0%

Quinnipiac
October 20
44.0%
50.0%
3.0%
3.4%

Quinnipiac
October 20
46.0%
51.0%
---
3.4%

Kerry is winning, and the incumbent rule gives him a comofortable margin.

	29-10-2004 03:49									#153
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The margins of error on most polls makes them pretty useless - the only real conclusion you can draw for most states is that it could go either way (except Utah ).

	29-10-2004 03:57									#154
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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x12942.xml?ReleaseID=488

Poll shows Kerry up by 17% (yes, you read that correctly) in Florida among early voters. The sample is relatively small - only 208 early voters, but the margin of error for that subset is still only about a third of the the spread. This is gonna be a landslide (i.e. Kerry's going to win by more than 5% as I predicted earlier).

	29-10-2004 04:20									#155
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Ramo, thanks for the Penn polls. The polls seem to be split. Some show Bush ahead. Some show the scumbag empty suit ahead.

	29-10-2004 04:23									#156
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2/14 show Dear Leader ahead (within the MoE), 1/14 shows them tied, 11/14 show Kerry ahead. And 4/14 show Kerry ahead outside the MoE.

	29-10-2004 04:32									#157
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo [url]This is gonna be a landslide (i.e. Kerry's going to win by more than 5% as I predicted earlier).

Are you trying to jinx this election?!

	29-10-2004 04:42									#158
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Errr.. right. Actually, Bush is gonna win in a landslide.

	29-10-2004 08:11									#159
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quote: Originally posted by Vince278 Based on?

Ted Striker being 100% correct all of the time.

	29-10-2004 08:33									#160
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Ted Striker being 100% correct all of the time.

	29-10-2004 08:38									#161
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Ramo, thanks for the Penn polls. The polls seem to be split. Some show Bush ahead. Some show the scumbag empty suit ahead.

it sounds like you're saying that cheney is running against bush.

	29-10-2004 08:51									#162
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John Zogby was on The Daily Show today, and he said that Kerry is going to win. Given Zoggie's track record in presidential politics, that certainly gives me heart.

I haven't felt it until this week, but now I am pretty darned optimistic that Kerry is going to win this thing. If the big news story going into the weekend continues to be the Al Qaaqaa ****-up, Bush is going to have a very bad Tuesday.

	29-10-2004 08:55									#163
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quote: Originally posted by Sava wow even money so far... I'm surprised. I thought Kerry would be pwning in this poll.

I would like Kerry to win, but I think Bush will.

	29-10-2004 08:56									#164
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Yeah, I voted for Bush here as well, but that was 3 weeks ago. Things are looking up now!

	29-10-2004 09:42									#165
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov I haven't felt it until this week, but now I am pretty darned optimistic that Kerry is going to win this thing.

optimism

Ted Striker

	30-10-2004 06:48									#166
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My prediction:

Kerry 272
Bush 266

	30-10-2004 07:46									#167
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Kerry 308
Bush 230

	30-10-2004 07:56									#168
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So you think Kerry will take FL, IA, and NM in addition to the states I've got him in (OH, WI, MN, NH, PA)?


I think the missing-absentee-ballot thing in FL is just gonna be too much for Kerry to overcome there. I think he's still got a decent shot at IA and NM, but the culture war dictates those states are probably slipping away...

	30-10-2004 07:59									#169
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They re-sent the absentee ballots, for what it's worth. But I think FL is looking good for Kerry. Cautiously optimistic.

And no, I think he's probably going to lose IA and NM, but win CO. OK, he might even win NM, so I could be low.

	30-10-2004 08:08									#170
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What about Finland?

	30-10-2004 09:08									#171
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They sent out the ballots again, but it's so late in the game now. How many of those people are out-of-state, or need help filling out their ballots?

I'd be very surprised if Kerry took Florida at this point. Colorado too. I think Zogby is probably the best poll overall, but that doesn't mean he can't be off-kilter in specific instances.

	30-10-2004 09:14									#172
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Hard to believe it's only 4 days away!

	30-10-2004 09:26									#173
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I dunno, I still see Bush winning I think he's got FL, and IA . To win without those two Kerry has to make a cleen sweep of the great lake states (except Indiana of course)

Edit: I also think Bush has CO, forgot that was considered in play. I hope Im wrong but IMO it all comes down to FL again

	30-10-2004 09:31									#174
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quote: Originally posted by Moral Hazard I dunno, I still see Bush winning I think he's got FL, and IA . To win without those two Kerry has to make a cleen sweep of the great lake states (except Indiana of course)

If Kerry wins OH, Bush can win FL and IA and Kerry would still win as long as he carried NM, WI, and MN. AR is also now a toss-up, and with Bubba on the trail for Kerry, it could help a lot.

	30-10-2004 11:50									#175
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I've never seen outright pure hatred for a US President in the Australian media before this election.

	30-10-2004 14:31									#176
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Some show Bush ahead. Some show the scumbag empty suit ahead.

	30-10-2004 14:40									#177
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quote: John Zogby was on The Daily Show today, and he said that Kerry is going to win. Given Zoggie's track record in presidential politics, that certainly gives me heart. I haven't felt it until this week, but now I am pretty darned optimistic that Kerry is going to win this thing. If the big news story going into the weekend continues to be the Al Qaaqaa ****-up, Bush is going to have a very bad Tuesday.

Remember our bet Boris?

You choose my avatar for two weeks unless Bush wins 2/3rds of the states, and 2/3rds of the college.

	30-10-2004 14:48									#178
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supposing Kerry wins:

Washington
Oregon
California
Maryland
Delaware
NY
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
Maine
Illinois
Vermont

So that leaves 37 states for Bush.

For the college

179 of 528

33% of the college for Kerry.

	30-10-2004 14:49									#179
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The Qaaqaa mess will just turn out to be a load of caca.

	30-10-2004 16:05									#180
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It's going to be close, but Ohio presently looks like it's going to Kerry, but the polls are so volitile, the only time we'll find out is on November ..... 8th, probably!

Thing is, Bush has a more solid base than Kerry, since all the South and Midwest *will* vote for him.